Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TKGBF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call

Investor webinar replay

Replay transcript excerpt

Good afternoon and welcome to Guarantee BBA's third quarter 2025 financial results webcast. Thank you for joining us today. Our CFO, Mr. Aydin Güler, and our Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Eda Akınç, will be presenting today. Following the presentation, there will be a Q&A session. You may ask your questions either by using the raise hand function or by typing them into the Q&A box. With that, I would now like to hand over to management for their presentation. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We are excited to be with you on another Earnings Call. Before getting into our financial performance principles, let's, as usual, go over the board. We are in. Turkish economy grew by 1.6% QoQ in the second quarter, and for the third quarter we now catch 0.5-1% QoQ growth. This implies a slowdown on a quarterly basis, yet it could still generate 4-4.5% annual growth. Therefore, we view risks to our full-year GDP growth forecast as balanced and keep our forecast at 3.7% for 2025 and 4% for 2026. In terms of inflation and monetary policy, following September inflation reading, we revised up our year-end inflation expectation to nearly 33% and policy rate assumption to 38%. Face-off rate cuts will depend on this and that gains, and we evaluate the ex-post 6-7 percentage point real rate can be required due to sticky service inflation and uncertainty on full inflation. We expect CBRT to maintain gradual rate cuts with ongoing reliance on macro-predential measures for longer. In terms of current account deficit, we assume private consumption staying much lower than its long-term trend, thus keeping current account deficit moderate in short term. We forecast current account deficit to be 1.2% of GDP in 2025 and 1.5% of GDP in 2026, which can be easily financed. Led by m...