Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TKGBF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call

Investor webinar replay

Replay transcript excerpt

Hello, and thank you for joining us, Guarantee BBVA's Second Quarter 2025 Financial Result Webcast. Our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Akten, our CFO, Mr. Aydin Güler, and our Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Ceyda Akınç, will be presenting today. As always, there will be a Q&A session following the presentation, and you will be able to ask your question either via raise hand button or by typing them into the Q&A area. I now hand over to our management for the presentation. Hello everyone and thank you for joining us. Today we are excited to walk you through our first talk earnings results. First, I would like to begin with macro environment that shaped the banking sector's performance. First, in terms of GDP. Let me move first to the GDP part. Yes, in terms of GDP, following 1% growth in the first Q, we now cast a quarterly growth rate of around 0.5% in 2Q, which will bring the first half GDP growth to above 3%. Thus, for the full year, considering potentially supportive fiscal stance and no dramatic impact from weaker external demand, we maintain our GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, yet evaluate the balance of risk tilted to the downside. Rate cut evolution, developments in trade wars, and the accent of fiscal discipline will ultimately shape the growth outlook. Inflation is set to decline, supported by tighter financial conditions, moderating private consumption and lower commodity prices. Thus, we slightly revised down our inflation forecast to 30% from 31% for the year-end, following positive surprises over the last three months on inflation data. CBRT's commitment to orthodoxy and the tighter monetary stance have contributed to the drop in inflation, the accumulation of reserves, and reduction in market volatility. Hence, we believe, conditions are settled to allow a carefully cal...