Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TKGBF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call

Investor webinar replay

Replay transcript excerpt

Good afternoon and thank you for joining Guaranteed BBVA's first quarter 2026 financial results webcast. Today we are joined by our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Akkan, our CFO, Mr. Atul Aziz, and our Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Eda Akıncı. Following management's presentation, we will open the floor for questions. You can either use the raise hand function or submit your questions through the Q&A box. Without further ado, I will now hand over to management. Hello everyone, we are pleased to be with you again following another quarter of strong financial performance. Before getting into our financial performance details, let's as usual go over the macroeconomic environment we are in. Following 3.6% annual growth in 2025, we now cast a moderate GDP growth of 2.5-3%, in the first quarter. Although this fire remains a possibility, the physical destruction in the region suggests that the recovery on the supply side will take time. Therefore, we evaluate downside risk to our 4% GDP growth forecast for 26. We have revised up our year and policy rate assumptions from 32% to 35% alongside a higher inflation outlook. In line with our above 30% inflation expectation until September, we expect CBRT to keep the funding rate at 40% until June, and if conditions allow, limited rate cuts might resume in July. Moving into current account balance, increased energy prices and vehicle export performance due to subdued external demand put a pressure on the current account deficit. We now expect current account deficit to GDP to be around 3.2% versus around 2% estimate in the beginning of the year. Despite availability in fiscal room, depending on the increasing external financing needs, the fiscal support on growth would be kept mild. Now moving into our financials, I will start with the headline ...