Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TKGBF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call

Investor webinar replay

Replay transcript excerpt

Good afternoon and welcome to Guaranty BBVA's 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Operating Plan Guidance Webcast. Thank you for joining us today. Presenting on behalf of Guaranty BBVA, we have our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Aktan, our CFO, Mr. Atul Özüz, and our Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Ceyda Akıncı. Following the presentation, there will be a Q&A session. You may ask your questions either by using the raise hand function or by typing them into the Q&A box. With that, I now would like to hand over to management for their presentation. Hello everyone and thank you for joining us. We are excited to be with you on another Earnings Call. Before getting into our financial performance details, let's as usual go over the broader macroeconomic environment. Turkish economy grew by 1% QoQ in the third quarter and for the fourth quarter, we now guessed a slightly positive quarterly growth. Therefore, parallel to our previous expectations, we maintain our GDP forecast as 3.7% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, consistent with still resilient activity outlook. In terms of inflation and monetary policy, Seasonally adjusted inflation improved into year-end. However, January CPI figure reinforces our view that the pace of monetary easing will become increasingly data-dependent and points to a slower pace of rate cuts compared to consensus. In this regard, we maintain our call of 25% inflation and 32% bullish rate for 26 year-end. In terms of current account deficit, it remains broadly manageable, although the trend has deteriorated, reflecting domestic demand dynamics and the gold channel. We expect current account deficit to GDP to be around 1.5-2% range. The outlook remains sensitive to Eurozone growth and Brent oil dynamics. In terms of budget deficit, we expect budget deficit to GDP to remain aro...