Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (TKGBF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call

Investor webinar replay

Replay transcript excerpt

Hello and thank you for joining us in the Guaranteed BBVA's first quarter 2025 financial results webcast. Our CEO, Mr. Mahmut Aktan, our CFO, Mr. Aydin Güler, and our Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Jada Akınç will be presenting today. As always, there will be a Q&A session following the presentation and you will be able to ask your questions either via raise hand button or by typing them into the Q&A area. I now leave the floor to management for the presentation. Hello everyone. I am pleased to present Garanti BBVA's first quarter earnings results. Before moving on the financials, I would like to go through the macro environment and our macro forecast. Turkish economy in first year remained solid, supported by robust domestic demand. Given the strong momentum in the first quarter and the expansionary fiscal stance, we expect GDP growth to be 3.5% this year. Inflation is set to decline, supported by tighter financial conditions, moderating private consumption and lower commodity prices. Following the latest internal and external market volatility, we revised up our year-end inflation estimates from 29% to 31%, while acknowledging upside risks from uncertainty in food prices. As you are all familiar with, following the turmoil, CBIT took all necessary market-friendly actions to address economic imbalances, gave a strong message to rebuild confidence and anchor foreign currency expectations. Once the effects of recent internal and external shocks begin to fade, CBRT can again start easing June onwards. Yet, given the potentially higher risk premium levels going forward, we think that CBRT might keep a slightly higher exposed real rate of at least 4 percentage points by year end. Moving on the current account deficit, We expect current account deficit to GDP to slightly...