Participants discussed current PGM market conditions, the impact of high precious metals prices on investment and demand patterns, the outlook for hybrid vehicles, and emerging technology areas ranging from hydrogen and solar energy to electronics, glass manufacturing and other industrial applications. Speakers and participants included executives from Valterra Platinum, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Zimplats, Ivanhoe Mines,
Nornickel reaffirmed its target of creating around 1.7 million troy ounces of new annual palladium demand through applications beyond autocatalysts. Through its Palladium Technology Center, the company is developing a portfolio of solutions for existing, growing and new markets, including glass, electrochemistry, solar energy, microelectronics and battery technologies.
Nornickel sees the fastest near-term impact in the glass industry and electrochemistry. Chinese companies have already purchased 20,000 ounces of palladium for fiberglass projects, while mid-term demand from the adoption of palladium bushings in this segment is estimated at 0.8 million ounces and the total potential for palladium use in the glass industry is estimated at up to 2 million ounces. A further 0.2-0.3 million ounces of mid-term demand could come from electrochemistry projects, including solutions for water disinfection,
Over the longer term, the company sees three major growth areas for palladium demand. Nornickel estimates palladium potential in solar energy at 0.5-1.0 million ounces per year by 2035, in microelectronics at around 1 million ounces annually in 2030-2035, and in lithium-sulfur batteries at no less than 1.5 million ounces per year once the technology reaches the market. According to the company, palladium demand diversification is already underway and is expected to strengthen gradually as projects move from laboratory development to industrial trials and initial commercial deployment.
Another focus area for the Palladium Technology Center is the development of an AI platform for discovering new materials based on palladium and other platinum group metals. The platform is designed to accelerate the selection of materials with the required properties for specific industrial processes and, in doing so, open up new areas of PGM application.
One example is work aimed at increasing palladium's electrical conductivity through the use of nanomaterials. Using AI, specialists are selecting the optimal placement, shape and size of carbon nanotubes for distribution within palladium's crystal structure. Such a composite material could deliver higher electrical conductivity and open up new opportunities for palladium to replace part of the 9 million ounces of gold used annually in microelectronics.
"Progress in applying artificial intelligence to new inorganic materials and alloys would require broader industry cooperation in funding, data sharing and scientific collaboration, as this would help accelerate the development of new materials and bring them to market faster," Dmitry Izotov said at the conference.
Nornickel's base-case scenario for 2026 assumes a broadly balanced palladium market. In the mid-term, the company expects additional support for demand from slower vehicle fleet electrification, a growing share of hybrids and new industrial applications for the metal.