Nornickel GmkRUS: GMKN

Quarterly Earnings Document

· MarketScreener

2025

Financial Results

Investors Presentation

11 February 2026



Norilsk Nickel 2025 Financial Results Presentation

2025 Financial Performance Highlights

Revenue

$13.8 bn

+10%

Realized metal prices

(mainly Au, Cu, Pd, Pt)

Sales volumes of other precious metals

СAPEX

$2.6 bn

+8%

  • Appreciation of RUB against USD

  • Implementation of strategic plans to improve the reliability of the production chain and further development



EBITDA

$5.7 bn

+9%

EBITDA margin 41%

Revenue Taxes and fees

Appreciation of RUB against USD

Inflation

NWC2

$2.9 bn

-4%

Trade accounts receivable Advances from customers Change in metal stocks levels

Appreciation of RUB against USD



Operating costs1

$5.7 bn

+11%

Taxes and fees

Appreciation of RUB against USD

Inflation

Net Debt/

EBITDA

X1.6

-х0.1

EBITDA

Net Debt due to appreciation of RUB against USD

  • Commitment to conservative debt policy



Net Income

$2.5 bn

+36%

EBITDA

Appreciation of RUB against USD Higher Income tax in 2025





Free Cash Flow

(FCF)

$3.5 bn

FCF'3 $1.5 bn

Comparative effect of the change in net working capital in 2025 compared to 2024

EBITDA



Source: Company data

Note 1. Cash operating costs included in cost of metal sales, 2. Net Working Capital, 3. Free Cash Flow less interest paid, payments of lease liabilities and dividends paid

3

to non-controlling interests

Sustainable Development Update



Health and Safety -

Accident Statistics

Number of employees

Lost time injury Fatal

5

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025



Strategic Priority for the Management

LTIFR and FIFR Dynamics1,2

LTIFR (Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate)

FIFR (Fatal-Injury Frequency Rate)

0.99

0.58

0.65

0.64

0.32

0.38

0.081

2019

0.21

0.085

2020

0.100

0.034

0.042

0.025

0.044

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

4

5

3

9

9

11

67

78

75

114

35

22

42



  • Achieving zero work-related fatalities remains the key strategic priority for the company

  • Ongoing implementation of programs aimed at improving industrial safety (digitalization of business processes, transformation of safety culture, improved provision of PPE to workers, improved work with contractors, etc.)



Source: Company data

Environmental Program: Reduction of SO2Emissions

Nornickel's Target: Drastically Reduction of Air Pollutant Emissions

Kola site:

SO2reduction targets (85% from 2015) have been met

Murmansk

Norilsk site:





2023-2025 - continue

to launch "Sulfur Program" at Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant

Norilsk

SO2emissions at Kola site [kt]

155

-91%

SO2emissions at Norilsk site

[kt] -38%

1 854 1 837 1 585

-9%

1 256 1 146

16

12.8

13.7



73

2015 2020 2021 2024 2025 2015 2020 2021 2024 2025

Markets Update



Metal Markets Overview

Metal

Production and Consumption Balance Forecast

Mid-term Forecast



Ni Cu Pd Pt

[kt]

[kt]

[Moz]

[Moz]

Surplus1 Balance

Depending on the revision of quotas in Indonesia

Balance2

Deficit2

Balance incl. investments

(0.4)

(~350)

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.3)

?

0.5

172

356

330

~275

~240

204

Balance



2024 2025 2026E 2024 2025 2026E 2024 2025 2026E 2024 2025 2026E



Source: Company estimates

Январь

Январь

Январь

Январь

Январь

Nickel Price Showed the Weakest Performance Among All Base Metals amid a Prolonged Market Surplus

Exchange Stocks of Nickel Increased Against the Backdrop of Excess Supply

[kt Ni] 300

LME

SHFE

200

100

2022

2023

2024

2025

The Average Nickel Price in 2025 Fell by 10% Y/Y

[USD/t Ni] 60,000

40,000

20,000

0

Jan 2022

Jan 2023

Jan 2024

Jan 2025

Jan 2026



  • In 2025, exchange stocks continued to rise (+53% to 300 kt) amid inflows from producers in China and Indonesia, whose share reached about 75% of total LME stocks by end of the year

  • The first news of a possible cut in Indonesia's nickel ore mining quota (RKAB) pushed nickel prices to a 14-month high. On

expectations of market rebalancing, the price climbed to $18,750/t1 in January 2026 versus an average of $15,160/t in 2025



News of a Cut in Indonesia's Ore Mining Quota Served as a Signal of

Potential Market Rebalancing and a Driver of Price Growth



Possible Ore Deficit in Indonesia in 2026 is Estimated at 38-73 Mt1 in 2026

[million t of Ni ore]

Implementation of Plans to Reduce Mining Quotas in Indonesia Could Cut Nickel Supply by ~300-600 kt1 in 2026

250-260

~340

-38

-73

[kt Ni]

275

Conservative scenario

Aggressive scenario

-52

-327

-355

-630

Ore mining quota Ore requirement Potential ore

deficit

Balance before quota revision

Supply decline due to quota cuts

Market balance after a potential quota change

  • Indonesia is considering cutting its nickel ore mining quota to 250-260 Mt versus an ore requirement of ~340 Mt (or 3 Mt of Nickel) to meet planned production targets

  • In our view, depending on the production reduction scenario the market could move into balance or even record a deficit in 2026 (-52 kt or -355 kt)

  • At the same time, under a status quo scenario, the market surplus would widen to 275 kt

Sources: Company estimates

Nickel Demand: Growing Stainless Steel Output, Robust Use of Nickel-Containing Alloys and Special Steels

Stainless Steel (65% of Total Nickel Use): Rising Production of Ni-Containing 300 Series in China, the Americas and the Other Asia

[mt] [2025 YoY, %]

2024

+3%

2025

0%

+3%

-3%

+6%

+2%

37

37

21

21

5 5

5 5

5 4

2 2

China Indonesia Other Asia EMEA Americas Total

Alloys, Special Steel and Plating (20% of Total Nickel Use): Solid End-Use Demand from the Oil & Gas and Aerospace Industries

[kt Ni] [2025 YoY, %]

2024

+2%

2025

+4%

+1%

+6%

193

197

186

194

174 176

73

78

Special Steel Standard Alloys

Plating

Superalloys



The Global Auto Market Continues to Exceed Expectations:

Output of EVs and Hybrids Up +33% and +19%

Global Vehicle Production: Above the Pre-Pandemic Level

[Vehicle production, million units]

change:

+Х% all types

ICE HEV PHEV BEV ICE equipped(1)

-16% -14% +14% +7% +10% -1% +6%

94

+23%

91 +11% 90 +33%

+3%

95 +17% 99

79 +28%

4

83

77

68 +109%5

7

5

+31% 10

15

18

+73% 8

3

9

4

12

12

7

12

9

14

10

16

-17% -15%

72

+10%

+3% +8% -2%

+2% +1%

89

59

63

63

64

59

57

54

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E

+Х%

Structure of Battery Chemistries Used: Growth in LFP Share, Decline in Nickel-Based Chemistries

LFP

LMFP

Mid-Ni

High-Ni

Others

11%

6%

5%

4% 4% 3% 3%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E

13%

16%

22%

35%

39%

45%

49% 50%

33%

46%

25%

23%

21%

50%

21% 21%

35%

30%

23%

35%

30%

26% 26%

34%

12%



Nickel Demand: Stainless Steel Is the Key Driver of Demand Growth from 2023

[annual change in nickel demand, kt Ni]

+197

+194

114

43

2022

159

(4)

2023

+181

72

17

91

2024

+196

79

(10)

106

+210

18

31

161

2025

2026E

Stainless Steel Batteries Other Sectors

Nickel Supply: Slowdown of Chemicals Production,

Increase in NPI2 and Class 1 in 2025

[annual change in nickel supply, kt Ni]

+431

+315

74

235

71

+182

+292

99

187

+345

83

?

(68)

NPI

Class 1

Chemicals

Other Low-Grade

55

190

144

266

170

38

40



The Nickel Market Balance Will Be Determined by the Scale of Mining Cuts in Indonesia

Nickel Market Balance: the Market May Be Rebalanced Through Production Curtailments in Indonesia

[market balance, kt Ni] Surplus1

~275

202

204

~240

81

(153)

Depending on the revision of quotas in

Indonesia

(350)

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 2026E

Deficit

(44)

(65)

83

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E



Palladium Market: Balanced amid Slight Growth in Demand in the



Automotive Industry and a Decrease in Supply Volumes

Market Balance1: a Balanced Situation is Expected

in 2025-2026

[moz]

0.4

Balance incl. investment demand and inventory movements.

Balance excl. investment demand and inventory movements.

(1)

2022

(0.6)

(Balance)

2023

2024

2025

2026E



Demand: Increased Production of Hybrids, Relaxed Electrification Targets, and Increased PGM Loadings in Vehicles

[moz] +1% +2% [YoY,%]

10.2 10.0 9.0

9.1 9.3



2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E



  • Demand: stabilization of demand due to increased production of ICE2 vehicles and a trend towards replacing more expensive platinum with palladium in automotive catalysts

  • Supply: decline in production in Russia and North America is partially offset by the recovery of supply from South Africa, where there is still underinvestment in the industry

  • Increase in secondary production is due to the scrapping of vehicles with higher PGM loadings and an increase in scrap collection due to high prices



Supply: Decrease in Primary Supply is Offset by an Increase in Secondary Processing

[moz] -3% 0% [YoY,%]

9.2 9.4 9.4

9.2 9.2



2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E









Platinum Market Has Entered a State of Moderate Shortage due to Reduced Supply and Increased Investment Demand

Market Balance: in the Mid-term Market is in Deficit

[moz]

0.2

0.3

Balance incl. investment demand and inventory movements.

Balance excl. investment demand and inventory movements.

Balance

2022

(0.2)

2023

(0.5) (0.3) (0.4) (0.3)

2024 2025 2026E



Demand: Growth in Jewellery and Industrial Demand Compensates for the Decline in the Automotive Sector

[moz] +2% +1% [YoY,%]

6.9 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.4

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E



  • Demand: decrease in demand for platinum from the automotive industry due to the lower share of diesel cars and the replacement of platinum with palladium as a cheaper alternative is being offset by an increase in consumption in other industrial sectors, such as electronics and chemicals

  • Supply: moderate YoY increase in production volumes is expected in South Africa, as well as an increase in secondary supply due to favorable prices



Supply: Revival of Production Volumes in 2026,

Following Weak Results in South Africa in 2025

[moz] -2% +1% [YoY,%]



7.2 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.1



2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E



Platinum Prices Have Reached an All-Time High,

while Palladium Prices Have Approached their 2022 Peaks



Price Rally in Precious Metals Intensified in 2H 2025 due to Increased Investment Demand

Launch of PGMs Futures Contracts on the GFEX Exchange Has Attracted Increased Interest from Investors in China, where Prices are Consistently Higher than on NYMEX1

[increase in metal prices, 1 Jan 2025 = 100%]

[$]

800

Trading Volume Pd+Pt GFEX Trading Volume Pd+Pt NYMEX Arbitrage Pt Arbitrage Pd

[t]

600

400%

200%

0%

Platinum Palladium

Gold Silver

600

400

200 GFEX>NYMEX

0

-200

NYMEX>GFEX

400

200

0

January 2025 July 2025 January 2026

Key Drivers PGMs Price Rally:

  • Correlation with gold - growth in investment demand

    November 2025 December 2025 December 2025 January 2026 January 2026

  • Reorientation of investors and jewellers from China towards PGMs, particularly platinum due to high prices of gold

  • The launch of trading in Pt and Pd futures contracts on the GFEX exchange, the first benchmarks in China, has attracted additional interest from Chinese investors

  • Increase in the production of ICE2 vehicles and decreasing supply from South Africa and North America amid technical problems and years of underinvestment in mines

Source: LPPM, GFEX, NYMEX, Company estimates



Note: 1. The arbitrage of platinum and palladium prices is calculated as the difference between the prices of contracts on GFEX and NYMEX (GFEX - NYMEX). 2. ICE -

16

Increased Leasing Rates for Platinum and Palladium in H2 2025 -Evidence of High Investment Demand?

Platinum Stocks ETFs, +65 koz from the beginning of 2025

[koz]

5,000



4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Platinum Lease Rates, %

1M 3M 6M 12M

40

30

20

10

0

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Palladium Stocks ETFs, +440 koz from the beginning of 2025

[koz]



1,200

900

600

300

0

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2026

2026

Jun 24 Oct 24 Feb 25 Jun 25 Oct 25 Feb 26

Palladium Lease Rates,%

1M 3M 6M 12M



15

10

5

0

Jun 24 Oct 24 Feb 25 Jun 25 Oct 25 Feb 26

Refined Copper Market:

Market Balance: the Volume of Excess Supply is Declining, while the Market Remains Broadly Balanced

[kt]

330

356

Slowing Growth in Supply amid Stable Demand Growth

Demand: Steady Growth is Expected to Continue

[mt]

+4%

+3% +3%

0.7

0.2

0.7

0.1

28.3

2023 China Others 2024 China Others 2025 2026E

25.7

26.6

27.5

70

12

164

172



2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E



Production: Growth is Slowing due to accident in

Indonesia and Technical Challenges Chile

[mt]

+4%

+3% +2%

0.7

0.4

0.8

0.1

28.5

2023 China Others 2024 China Others 2025 2026E

25.8

26.9

27.9

  • Demand: steady growth in copper demand driven by rising electricity intensity per unit of GDP, the expansion of renewable energy, grid development, and the rapid growth of data centers

  • Supply: growth in copper supply is constrained by mining disruptions in Indonesia, South America, and Africa

  • Price Rally: supported by additional speculative demand from U.S. investors amid expectations of potential import tariffs



Source: company estimates, CRU

CME Prices Above LME Drove up US Imports

[$/t]

2,500 CME>LME

1,500

500

-500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



Tariff Expectations in the United States are Widening the Gap Between Exchange Prices and Creating Risks of Price Volatility



Metal Imports to the US in 10M 2025 Exceeded the Average Values for 2016-2024. COMEX Stocks Increased by 359 kt in 2025

[Import of cathode copper to the USA, kt]

300

2016-2024 2025

150

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

The SHFE-LME Arbitrage was in the Negative Zone, which Contributed to Exports from China

[$/t]

SHFE>LME

500

300

100

-100

-300

-500

LME>SHFE

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec



  • CME-LME's record-breaking arbitrage collapsed in July due to changing expectations, but then partially recovered, creating speculative opportunities for increasing copper imports in the United States

  • Excessive demand and falling LME stocks supported copper prices

  • The rise in LME prices, driven by speculative demand from trading companies seeking to ship the metal to the United States, has led to a negative SHFE-LME arbitrage and created opportunities for copper exports from China

Metal Markets: Outlook on Long-Term Fundamentals



Metal Ni Cu Pd Pt

Market Balance Forecast

Surplus risk1 Deficit Surplus2 Deficit

+5…9%

+2.5%

+2.8%

+0.4%

Supply (CAGR, %)

2025 2030E

Low-Grade High-Grade Risk

2025 2030E

Asia Americas Others

2025 2030Е

Africa Russia

Other Recycling

2025 2030Е

Africa Russia

Other Recycling

-0.2%1

+5% +3.1% +0.5%

Demand (CAGR, %)

Long-term fundamentals

2025 2030E

Stainless Steel Batteries Other

2025 2030E

Constraction Utility Others

2025 2030Е

Auto Other

2025 2030Е

Auto Jewellery Other

Financial Update



Metal Revenue Dynamics:









Stronger Cu and PGM prices

Key revenue change factors:

  • Stronger copper, palladium and platinum prices, except nickel prices

  • Increase in sales volumes

from other precious metals



Metal Revenue Change Factors

[USD mln]

Macro factors Operating factors 1,117 18

11,848

12,983

2024 Realized price Sales volume 2025

Average Market Prices for Key Group's Metals

Ni [$/t] Cu [$/t] Pd [$/oz] Pt [$/oz]

-10% +9% +17% +34%

16,812 15,160 9,147 9,945 984 1,149 956

1,278

2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025



EBITDA Dynamics: Revenue Growth and Sustainable Margin

EBITDA and EBITDA Margin Change over 5-Year Cycle

[USD mln]

EBITDA 59% 52%

EBITDA margin



10,512 8,697

48%



6,884

41%



5,196



41%



5,668

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025



EBITDA Change Factors Macro factors One-off factors Operating factors

[USD mln] 442 (133) 163



5,196 1,117 319 94 69 5,668

(630) (364) (133)

2024

Realised prices

FOREX

Domestic inflation

Taxes and other duties

Change in

provisions1

Сontrollable unit

cost of production

Other

2025

Adjusted Cash Operating Costs: Growth Below Russian Inflation Driven by Management Effort

Cash Operating Costs Change Factors

[USD mln] Macro factors 506



5,119 459 266

(219)



Operating factors 48

48



5,673

2024

FOREX

Domestic inflation

Taxes and other duties

Other

2025

2025 Cash Costs Breakdown

[USD mln]

7%

Labour

Materials and fuel Taxes and other duties Third party services Other

16%

41%

5,673

15%

21%

Adjusted Cash Operating Costs Change1: Lower than Inflation in Russia (+8,7%) [USD mln]

Labour

+5%

4,449

4,682

Materials and fuel Third party services

Other

1,201

876

308

2024

1,195

887

281

2025

2,064

2,319



Operational Efficiency Programme

The Programme Initiatives Cover All Areas of the Company's Production and Business Activities

Mining Projects

Improving the technical readiness and efficiency of using underground self-propelled machinery and stationary equipment



and is Developed for 2024-2026

Main Focus Areas of the Operational

Efficiency Programme

Copper

Plant

Increasing production volumes by processing the rich ore from the Taymyr mine in the smelting units, bypassing the beneficiation stage



  1. Cost reduction, including non-production expenses

  2. Improving product quality

  3. Management of non-core assets

  4. Increase of production volumes

    Kola

    Site

    Improving metal recovery rates by enhancing the accuracy of process control in the nickel electrolysis plant



  5. Expansion of the sales market

Nadezhda



Metallurgical

Plant

Production of additional commodity products through the involvement of pyrite with the charge in batched smelting furnaces

Examples of Digital and Technological Initiatives Implemented in 2025

Additional Annual Economic Effect>$100 mln1

Description Economicc Effect in 2025

Development of new market for Pd

The innovative material created in the Norilsk Nickel laboratory based on Pd for fiberglass opens up previously inaccessible markets for the use of palladium and reduces the weight of products due to the lower density of Pd compared to Pt

$6mln





Modeling of underground drilling and blasting operations

The implementation of a tool for creating optimal designs for the drilling of clearing chambers (digital passports) reduces ore dilution with waste rock and concrete

$16mln

Scaling AI-Based Optimizers

Algorithms based on machine learning and artificial intelligence methods operate in a unified system:

in Enrichment

analyze the current state of the technological process

control equipment in real time

automatically increase productivity without causing unnecessary losses (if there is potential for increased processing)

$12mln

End-to-end optimization of the metallurgical process

Determining the optimal Fe content in fines has made it possible to balance the Norilsk and Kola sites in terms of performance and reduce metal losses, with the optimum achieved through rapid monitoring of the contents in the melt during the converting process

$7mln



Source: Company data 26

Net Working Capital Dynamics: Management Effort Offsets Negative Macro Factors Impact

[USD mln] Macro factors

627

443 203

Operating factors

(757)

3,007

(19)

(464) (94) (230)

184

(153)

2,877

31.12.2024

FOREX

Realized

Taxes and

Trade

Advances

Volume of

Cost per

Other

31.12.2025

prices

levies

receivables

from

WIP and FG 1

unit of

customers

production

  • National currency appreciation by 30% from 101.7 USD/RUB at 31.12.2024 to 78.2 USD/RUB at 31.12.2025

  • Optimization of trade receivables

  • Increase of advance payments from customers

  • Ongoing decrease of WIP and FG 1 volumes

  • Growth of cost per unit of metal production due to inflation and increase in MET



The Implementation of Strategic Plans Aimed at Safety

CAPEX1 Breakdown by Projects

[USD mln]2

Environmental programme (Sulphur Programme at the Nadezhda Plant)

Talnakh Enrichment Plant

2,628

2,438

Mine development

Bystrinsky project

429

South Cluster

355

96

Energy and gas infrastructure modernisation

Other commercial

Other stay-in-business

2024

2025

1,062

211

185

98

264

343

46

1,051



Improvement of the Fixed Assets and at Further Development

CAPEX1 Allocation by Type

[USD mln]2

2,628

2,438

Environmental programme (Sulphur Programme

at the Nadezhda Plant)

Commercial

Stay-in-business

2024

2025

1,500

1,589

595

662

343

377

377

88

160

113

188



Liquidity and Debt1 Management:

Net Debt and Leverage

[$ bn]

0.6

0.5

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.6

[x]

9.8

9.1

2020

2021

Net Debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net Debt / EBITDA (x)

Debt Structure1

13%

15%

2024 2025

RUB USD CNY

2024

Long-term

2025

Short-term

71%

72%

29%

28%

34%

40%

26%

4.9

4.7

8.1

8.6

72%



Highlights

  • Leadership team has invested a huge effort in rebalancing the Company's debt portfolio to match its business model

  • ~USD 6.5 bn raised during 2025 to successfully refinance the Company's loan portfolio, including two largest USD-denominated bond issues in the history of the Russian public debt market

  • A sizeable pool of reserve liquidity retained by the Company to

    back-up debt refinancing activities during 2026

  • The Company's credit rating was confirmed at the highest investment-grade level by national agencies NCR (AAA.ru) and Expert RA (ruAAA)



Successful Optimization of the Debt Portfolio


Debt1 Repayment Schedule2 and Available Liquidity

[$ bn] Cash Committed credit lines

and overdrafts

2.1 Debt repayments Debt portfolio

9.7

3.3

3.5

2.2

2.2

0.4

11.2

Liquidity position

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030+

Total debt

Financial Results Sensitivity to USD/RUB Exchange Rate

At USD/RUB rate of 78.23, 1% change in exchange rate translates into EBITDA change of USD 62.6 mln,

FCF change of USD 91.2 mln

[USD mln]

100

101.9

80

95.1

91.2 89.1

83.9

79.2

FCF

6070.0 65.3

40

62.6 61.2

Exchange rate 31.12.2025

57.6 54.4

EBITDA

20

70.0

75.0 78.2

80.0

85.0

USD/RUB

90.0

Source: Company data

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