Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company · HOSE:VCI
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock — VAD Bangkok 2025
37 slides from Vietcap Securities Joint Stock's conference presentation, August 2025
Slide 1: Banking Sector
Banking Sector Strong topline growth bolsters earnings; asset quality improves August 2025 Nam Hoang Head of Research nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn +8428 3914 3588 ext.123 Ngoc Huynh Quan Vu Nga Ho Manager Deputy Manager Analyst ngoc.huynh@vietcap.com.vn quan.vu@vietcap.com.vn nga.ho@vietcap.com.vn +8428
Slide 2: Summary
Summary • Following strong credit growth in H1 2025 of 9.9%, we see potential upside to our 2025F system-wide credit growth forecast at 15.4%. We expect the credit growth outlook to be driven by strong economic growth momentum and a low- interest rate environment. We anticipate continued strong cred
Slide 3: Macro environment
Macro environment Vietcap~
Slide 4: US tariff on Vietnam is now among the lowest
US tari on Vietnam is now among the lowest 70% 60% 50% Previous average: 35%** 40% 30% New average: 32%*** 20% 10% 0% Tariffs announced on Liberation day New tariff announcement Liberation day - average tariffs of competitors/potential competitors New average tariffs of competitors/potential compet
Slide 5: Impact on Vietnam's economy
Impact on Vietnam’s economy Tariff gap Est. 2025 Est. change assumption GDP growth in VND -15% to –5% 8.2% -2.0% (bull case) (bull case) (bull case) TARIFF -5% to + 5% 7.8% -2.5% SCENARIOS (base case) (base case) (base case) +5% to +15% 7.2% -5.0% (bear case) (bear case) (bear case) Note: In all cas
Slide 6: SBV to maintain an accommodative monetary stance
SBV to maintain an accommodative monetary stance 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2025F 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2026F 2013 2027F 2014 2016 2019 2017 2018 2015 Discount rate Refinancing rate Deposit rate cap <6m Source: SBV, Vietcap 6
Slide 7: Deposit rates remain at low level, driving low lending rates
Deposit rates remain at low level, which drive low lending rates that support economic growth Weighted average deposit rates of SOE banks (%) 8.0 7.4 6.8 7.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.0 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M Jan-20 Dec-21 Sep-22 Dec-22 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-
Slide 8: VND weakened despite DXY decline
VND weakened despite DXY decline DXY Index and VND/USD exchange rate (VND/USD) 115 26,500 26,000 110 25,500 105 25,000 24,500 100 24,000 95 23,500 23,000 90 22,500 85 22,000 Jun-19 Dec-21 Dec-23 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Dec-19 Dec-24 Jun-23 Jun-25 Jun-24 Dec-20 Dec-22 DXY (LS) USD/VND (RS) Source: Bloom
Slide 9: Real estate market maintains strong recovery momentum
Real estate market maintains strong recovery momentum Total condo transactions in the primary markets of Hanoi and HCMC (‘000 units) 25 Mega launch from Launches of small to townships medium-sized projects 20 COVID-19 impact Interest rate cools down; Land Law 2024 15 Interest rate hikes; corporate b
Slide 10: Banking sector recap and outlook
Banking sector recap and outlook
Slide 11: Key data and summary valuations
Key data and summary valuations Banking sector: Key data Market State For. For. ADTV Share Target Target Div. TSR Code Rating Cap USD O’ship Limit Avail 30D Price VND Price VND price Upside % Yield % mn % % USD mn USD mn ps ps updated % VCB BUY 19,604 74.8% 30.0% 616 26 61,500 73,200 05/23/25 19.0%
Slide 12: 2025 earnings growth expected to decelerate due to NIM pressure
2025 earnings growth expected to decelerate due to NIM pressure NPAT, quarterly (VND tn) NPAT, yearly (VND tn) 350 40% 70 60% 300 35% 60 50% 33.9% 30% 50 40% 250 29.7% 25% 40 30% 200 30 20% 18.9% 19.0% 16.2%20% 150 15% 20 10% 13.8% 100 10 0% 10% 50 5.1% 5% 0 -10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 23 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 13: Robust credit growth expected in 2025
Robust credit growth expected in 2025 Annual system credit growth Monthly system-wide credit growth 16.0% 13.7% 16% 15.4% 15.1% 14.0% 13.6% 15.0% 12.2% 15% 14.2% 12.0% 14.1% 14% 13.6% 13.7% 10.0% 8.0% 13% 6.0% 12% 4.0% 11% 2.0% 0.0% 10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2.0% 9% 2020 2
Slide 14: Retail segment recovery continues with mortgages key contributor
Retail segment recovery continues with mortgages being a key contributor Retail loans growth vs corporate loans growth QoQ growth in mortgages balance 30.0% 10.0% 25.0% 8.0% 6.0% 20.0% 4.0% 15.0% 2.0% 10.0% 0.0% 5.0% 3.4% 3.0% -2.0% 0.0% -4.0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q1 2025 -6.0% Retail loans grow
Slide 15: Notable divergence in credit growth among banks in Q2 2025
Notable divergence in credit growth among banks under our coverage in Q2 2025 Credit growth of banks under our coverage 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% CTG BID VCB VPB p HDB p TPB MBB LPB TCB VIB ACB STB -5.0% 3M 2024 6M 2024 9M 2024 12M 2024 3M 2025 6M 2025 Source: Company data, Vietcap; (‘
Slide 16: Strong credit growth outlook across most banks
Strong credit growth outlook across most banks Credit growth of banks under our coverage 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% BID CTG VCB ACB HDB c VPB c MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Source: Company data, Vietcap; (‘c’ denotes consolidated) We continue to forecast ~15% aggregate credit grow
Slide 17: Deposit growth & CASA ratio
Deposit growth & CASA ratio Deposit growth of banks under our coverage Aggregate CASA ratio of banks under our coverage 25% 27% 20% 25% 15% 10% 23% 5% 21% 0% 19% -5% -10% 17% BID CTG VCB ACB HDB VPB c MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB c 15% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 12M 24 3M 25 6M 25 21 22
Slide 18: Deposit growth expected to trail credit growth
Deposit growth expected to trail credit growth as banks tap other funding sources to bridge the gap Annual system-wide deposit growth Breakdown of funding sources 100% 13.8% 95% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 13.2% 13.0% 12.7% 1% 0% 1% 1% 90% 3% 2% 4% 4% 10.2% 85% 15% 15% 15% 15% 9.2% 15% 14% 80% 14% 14% 8
Slide 19: Q2 2025 NIM edged up slightly QoQ
Q2 2025 NIM edged up slightly QoQ Aggregate NIM of banks under our coverage, quarterly NIM by banks 4.5% 7.00% 4.0% 6.00% 3.5% 5.00% 3.15% 4.00% 3.0% 3.00% 2.5% 2.00% 2.0% 1.00% 1.5% 0.00% BID CTG VCB ACB HDB VPB MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB 1.0% c c Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 22 22 22 22
Slide 20: 2025F NIM expected to decline further but recovery is imminent
2025F NIM expected to decline further but we believe the boom is imminent Aggregate NIM, yearly NIM by banks, yearly 6.5% 3.94% 6.0% 3.78% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.53% 4.0% 3.42% 3.39% 3.5% 3.31% 3.25% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% BID CTG VCB ACB HDB VPB MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB c c 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F
Slide 21: NFI under pressure while other NOII performed well
NFI under pressure while other NOII performed well due to stronger recovery income Quarterly NOII 30% 50% 40% 25% 30% 20% 20% 15% 10% 0% 10% -10% 5% -20% 0% -30% Q1 22 Q2 22 Q3 22 Q4 22 Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24 Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Quarterly NOII/TOI (%) YoY growth of NOII (%) (RHS) Ag
Slide 22: Operating expenses tightly controlled in line with top-line
Operating expenses continued to be tightly controlled in accordance with top-line performance Aggregate TOI and OPEX growth, quarterly Aggregate CIR, PPOP & OPEX, quarterly 35% 160 38% 30% 140 36% 25% 34% 120 32% 20% 100 30% 15% 80 28% 10% 26% 60 24% 5% 40 22% 0% 20 20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Slide 23: Asset quality slightly improve in Q2 2025
Asset quality slightly improve in Q2 2025 Asset quality of Vietcap’s banking coverage Asset quality of banks as of Q2 2025 6.00% 200% 8.0% 250.0% 5.00% 7.0% 150% 200.0% 4.00% 6.0% 3.00% 100% 5.0% 150.0% 2.00% 4.0% 50% 100.0% 1.00% 3.0% 0.00% 0% 2.0% 50.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1.
Slide 24: Asset quality expected to remain broadly stable in 2025
Asset quality expected to remain broadly stable in 2025 NPL ratio grossed up for write-offs Group 2 loan ratio 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% BID CTG VCB ACB HDB VPB MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB BID CTG VCB ACB HDB VPB MBB TCB STB TPB VIB LPB c c c c
Slide 25: Credit costs expected to moderate in 2025
Credit costs expected to moderate in 2025 after aggressive provisioning by many banks in recent years Aggregate provision expenses (VND tn) and credit costs (%), Credit costs of banks under coverage quarterly 5.0% 35 2.00% 4.0% 30 25 1.50% 3.0% 20 1.00% 2.0% 15 10 0.50% 1.0% 5 0 0.00% 0.0% Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 26: Recent performance and top picks
Recent performance and top picks
Slide 27: Banking sector share price performance YTD
Banking sector share price performance YTD Share price performance, YTD (1) Share price performance, YTD (2) 25% 30% 20% 25% 15% 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25
Slide 28: Banks' share price performance
Banks’ share price performance Banks’ share price performance YTD 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% TCB STB VPB MBB CTG VN INDEX LPB VIB HDB TPB BID ACB VCB 2025 YTD 2024 Source: Vietcap, FiinPro as of Aug 5, 2025 28
Slide 29: Trailing P/B of banks under our coverage
Trailing P/B of banks under our coverage Average trailing P/B of banks under our coverage (Dec 2017 – August 2025) 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Nov-20 Jun-21 Jan-22 Aug-22 Mar-23 Oct-23 May-24 Dec-24 Jul-25 Average trailing P/B +2 STD +1 STD 7-ye
Slide 30: Comparable peers valuation
Comparable peers valuation Vietnam banks P/B (y-axis) and ROE (x-axis) (2025F) 2.5x 2.3x LPB 2.1x VCB 1.9x 1.7x BID 1.5x TCB STB HDB CTG 1.3x VPB MBB VIB ACB 1.1x TPB 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source: Vietcap, FiinPro as of Aug 5, 2025. Green dots indicate State-owned banks.
Slide 31: Historical P/B of banks under our coverage
Historical P/B of banks under our coverage 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 ACB BID CTG HDB LPB MBB STB TCB TPB VCB VIB VPB Min Max Current trailing P/B Source: Vietcap, FiinPro as of Aug 5, 2025 31
Slide 32: Top picks – MBB, CTG, VPB and VCB
Top picks – MBB, CTG, VPB and VCB CTG: Highest credit growth among SOCBs, moderating credit costs to lift earnings growth/profitability after years of heavy write-off/provisioning to clean up its book. VPB: As a well-capitalized bank, VPB is poised for a significant profitability boost over the
Slide 33: CTG - BUY, TP of VND52,000
CTG - BUY, TP of VND52,000 Rating* BUY 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Share Price (June 19) VND40,700 PPOP (VND bn) 59,357 63,163 71,185 82,547 Target Price (TP)* VND52,000 % YoY 18.5% 6.4% 12.7% 16.0% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 25,342 30,061 35,008 41,257 % YoY 27.3% 18.6% 16.5% 17.9% Upside to TP +27.8% EPS % YoY 2
Slide 34: MBB - BUY, TP of VND31,000
MBB - BUY, TP of VND31,000 Rating* BUY 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Share Price (June 19) VND25,100 PPOP (VND bn) 38,406 45,526 52,602 60,808 Target Price (TP)* VND31,000 % YoY 18.6% 18.5% 15.5% 15.6% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 22,634 25,849 30,007 33,992 % YoY 9.5% 14.2% 16.1% 13.3% Upside to TP +23.5% EPS % YoY 8
Slide 35: VPB - BUY, TP of VND25,000
VPB - BUY, TP of VND25,000 Rating* BUY 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Share Price (June 19) VND18,500 PPOP (VND bn) 47,915 53,434 63,323 75,285 Target Price (TP)* VND25,000 % YoY 33.8% 11.5% 18.5% 18.9% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 15,779 18,786 21,883 25,299 % YoY 58.2% 19.1% 16.5% 15.6% Upside to TP +35.1% EPS % YoY
Slide 36: VCB - BUY, TP of VND73,200
VCB - BUY, TP of VND73,200 Rating* BUY 2024 2025F 2026F 2027F Share Price (June 19) VND56,600 PPOP (VND bn) 45,551 50,024 60,051 71,927 Target Price (TP)* VND73,200 % YoY -0.7% 9.8% 20.0% 19.8% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 33,831 36,735 43,263 51,029 % YoY 2.2% 8.6% 17.8% 18.0% Upside to TP +29.3% EPS % YoY 2.0
Slide 37: Key data and summary valuations
Key data and summary valuations Banking sector: Key data Market State For. For. ADTV Share Target Target Div. TSR Code Rating Cap USD O’ship Limit Avail 30D Price VND Price VND price Upside % Yield % mn % % USD mn USD mn ps ps updated % VCB BUY 19,604 74.8% 30.0% 616 26 61,500 73,200 05/23/25 19.0%
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company — VAD Bangkok 2025 on 6ix