Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company · HOSE:VCI
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock — VAD Bangkok 2026
57 slides from Vietcap Securities Joint Stock's conference presentation, August 2026
Slide 1: Consumer Sector
Consumer Sector Leading names outperform as sector consolidation continues August 2026 Nam Hoang Giang Bui, CFA Head of Research Senior Manager nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn giang.bui@vietcap.com.vn +8428 3914 3588 ext.124 +84 28 3914 3588, ext.125 Vinh Bui Ngan Ly Nguyen Nguyen Senior Analyst Senior Ana
Slide 2: Summary
Summary Vietnam’s consumer sector continues to offer compelling long-term growth potential, underpinned by favorable structural drivers including a young population, rising disposable incomes, and urbanization headroom. These factors support a multi-year runway for modern retail penetration, premium
Slide 3: Key themes and outlook
Key themes and outlook Companies under our coverage outperformed the short-term macro backdrop
Slide 4: Vietnam stands out in Asia: GDP & urbanization catching up quickly
Vietnam stands out in Asia: GDP & urbanization catching up quickly from low bases ASEAN Populous countries Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia ASEAN China India USD (2025E) 5,139 5,187 4,275 7,515 12,752 6,121 13,800 2,986 GDP per capita CAGR 21-25 (%) 9.7% 7.7% 9.4% 4.1% 5.3% 7.4% 4.5%
Slide 5: Rising incomes unlock a stronger spending upcycle
Rising incomes unlock a stronger spending upcycle Peer comparison within similar economic base* period: Vietnam most resembles China’s golden growth era in the next 5 years 6,000 6,000 6,000 12% 6,000 11.3% 5,139 12.0% 10.5% 10.2% 12.0% 12.0% 5,000 5,000 8.5% 8.4% 5,000 10% 5,000 10.0 % 10.0 % 8.4%
Slide 6: Vietnam's 2026 PIT reform: more relief, simpler rates
Vietnam’s 2026 PIT reform: more relief, simpler rates • Higher family deductions lower taxable income, while five wider brackets simplify the progressive schedule. c. VND 21tn +41% personal deduction 7 →5 progressive brackets estimated annual revenue impact from higher family deductions VND 11.0m →
Slide 7: Real retail sales rebounded to 7.3% in H1 2026
Real retail sales rebounded to 7.3% in H1 2026 and 7.5% in 7M 2026, up from 6.1–6.2% in 4M–5M, as cooling fuel prices eased pressure on consumers Consumer confidence rebuilds ahead of Tet 84 60 63 57 57 51 51 51 54 52 27 12 Real retail sales rebound to 7.5% in 7M 2026 on firmer consumer sentiment an
Slide 8: Manufacturing stays in expansion as labor holds firm, trade deficit widens
Manufacturing stays in expansion as labor holds firm, trade deficit widens Unemployment stays contained, slightly down q/q 5.0 4.0 Unemployment rate 3.0 Underemployment rate Unemployment and underemployment 2.0 1.0 Trade deficits widening driven by surging imports of petroleum S&P Global Vietnam Man
Slide 9: Labor market remains solid amid strong economic growth
Labor market remains solid amid strong economic growth The labor force rebounded in Q2 after seasonal weakness The industry & construction sector led employment in Q1; participation rate remained stable at 68.4% growth in 2Q26 55 69% Total labor force (LHS) Labor force participant rate (RHS) 55 69%
Slide 10: Inflation eases as fuel prices normalize after April spike
Inflation eases as fuel prices normalize after April spike Retail fuel prices retreat after April spike VND/litre E5 Ron 92-II Diesel (0.05S) 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Jul-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 Jan-2023 Jul-2023 Jan-2024 Jul-2024 Jan-2025 Jul-2025 Jan-2026 Jul-2026 CPI peaks in May under pres
Slide 11: Most input costs and freights ease from peaks
Most input costs and freights ease from peaks Urea/fertilizer prices fall from peak, easing pressures for agricultural commodity price Urea spot price vs agricultural commodity index* 1500 Middle East Urea Spot price (LHS) Bloomberg agriculture spot index (RHS) 600 500 1000 400 500 300 0 200 2021 20
Slide 12: H1 2026 earnings wrap-up
H1 2026 earnings wrap-up: Most coverage names delivered solid sales growth and stable-to-better margins Sales growth YoY Profitability changes YoY Vietcap’s comments Value-led, upgrade-driven demand; Apple ICT & CE +31% NPM +2.6 ppts upgraded Vietnam to Tier 1 (Sep-2025). High retailers memory price
Slide 13: Industry trends shaping the divergence
Industry trends shaping the divergence FMCG Pharmacy Elec- Logistics Tech Telecom & grocery tronics retail retail VNM, FRT, MWG, VTP FPT FOX SAB, MWG, FRT MCH MSN Vietnam’s new growth era Infrastructure development Digital transformation & AI adoption Economic cycle Higher interest rates Higher comm
Slide 14: Modern retailers accelerate growth
Key themes and outlook Modern retailers accelerate growth - Grocery scaling up quickly, short-term trade-off between sales and margin - Electronics retail reaccelerate with AI-driven demand - Long Chau’s dominance in pharmacy boost profit and vaccination penetration
Slide 15: Grocery: Minimart leaders accelerate growth
Grocery: Minimart leaders accelerate growth after finding profitable models and favorable regulations We expect Vietnam’s modern grocery retail sales to grow BHX & WCM’s store count to surge from 2025 onward after 2x-3x over 2025-30 given its low penetration vs the region quiet 2023-2024 MT % in gro
Slide 16: Grocery: WCM leading on SSSG, BHX outperforming in net margin
Grocery: WCM leading on SSSG, BHX outperforming in net margin H1 2026: WCM maintained mid-teen LFL revenue In the medium term, WCM targets strong margin growth improvement while BHX aims to go back to positive SSSG BHX returned to positive SSSG in Q2 after several track muted quarters SSSG (%) Sales
Slide 17: ICT & CE: Vietnam outperforms regional growth
ICT & CE: Vietnam outperforms regional growth. Price increase and upgrade dominate value growth Vietnam ICT & CE: USD 10bn → USD 15bn at 8.2% 2025-2030F CAGR — fastest growth in SEA ICT & CE 2030F Market Size and % 5Y CAGR 12% Growth in household spending per capita (% CAGR 10% Vietnam, 14,883 Indon
Slide 18: ICT: AI adoption accelerates electronics and hardware demand
ICT: AI adoptions accelerates electronics and hardware demand DGW’s server sales soared 4.2x in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2024* Inference cost of GPT 3.5-equivalent models (USD/million token) VNDbn AI PC/ Total PC shipments 100% 1,800 10 1,600 1,400 75% 1 1,200 1,000 50% 0.1 800 600 0.01 25% 400 200 0 0.001 0%
Slide 19: ICT: Official Apple products gain market share in Vietnam
ICT: Official Apple products gains market share in Vietnam Ranking and market share of iPhone at each Demand to be captured by the official channel country #1 Singapore ~50% Tier-1 market In September 2025: iPhone 17 launched on the same date with Singapore -->Less #2 Vietnam 20% opportunities for h
Slide 20: Pharmacy: Long Chau's dominant position translating into profitability
Pharmacy: Long Chau’s dominant position in retail pharmacy market is translating into profitability improvement Vietnam’s pharma market grew at an 8%1 CAGR (2021-25), Long Chau is winning the market consolidation race, driven by with value growth outpacing volume growth, supporting its significant l
Slide 21: Vaccination: Underpenetrated market, supportive policies
Vaccination: Underpenetrated market, supportive policies to accelerate private-chain expansion Rising income and healthcare awareness to drive vaccine adoption Policy tailwinds support rising preventive Market size1 USD0.8bn healthcare awareness Roadmap to expand vaccine coverage under the Vaccinati
Slide 22: Modern trade benefits from tighter regulations on informal economy
Key themes and outlook Modern trade continues to benefit from tighter regulations on the informal economy
Slide 23: Tightened control on tax, smuggling & counterfeits level the playing field
Tightened control on tax, smuggling & counterfeits, and e- commerce now level the playing field for modern retailers 2024-current March-April 2025 April 2025 June 1, 2025 Gold market Investigation on E-commerce platforms to 270,000 households with inspections counterfeit goods. withhold tax from sel
Slide 24: Households to report higher revenue under e-invoicing and tax
Households to report higher revenue to match actual figures, then disrupted by e-invoicing, accounting, and tax Approved PIT scheme for household businesses from 2026 (revised in May 2026) Annual revenue PIT (1) Reporting now more brackets transparent: - Wholesaler invoices 0-VND1bn indicate retaile
Slide 25: E-commerce: Higher compliance & fair competition
E-commerce: Higher compliance & fair competition, leveling playing field vs brick & mortar modern trade Vietnam’s e-commerce gross merchandise value (USD bn) 60 CAGR 19% Law on E-commerce (July 2026) Fair competition 25 21 • No exclusive payment or shipping providers; 19 • No manipulation of product
Slide 26: Telecom & Technology key themes
Key themes and outlook Telecom & Technology: State-led initiatives to drive telecom’s next growth phase; AI deflation remains near-term headwind for IT services
Slide 27: Telecom: State-led initiatives to fuel new growth phase
Telecom: State-led initiatives to fuel new growth phase Recent developments are reshaping telecom sector landscape February 2025 July 2025 May 2026 • Entire stake transferred • Entire 50.1% stake transferred • Transferred in full from from SCIC1 to MoPS2 from SCIC to MoPS the Department of October 2
Slide 28: Technology: AI deflation a near-term headwind
Technology: AI deflation to remain a near-term headwind before turning positive through AI inflation Historical YoY revenue growth of select Indian IT service companies* Cloud deflation Cloud inflation AI deflation & macro uncertainties • Cloud adoption commoditized • COVID accelerated • AI improves
Slide 29: Technology: AI adoption improves productivity rather than demand
Technology: AI adoption currently improves productivity gains rather than driving incremental demand We expect the transition from the “augmented” phase to the “standard” phase to occur in 2028F 2026-27F2 2028F2 Enterprise AI adoption Curious Augmented Standard Automatic Native journey1 Characterist
Slide 30: Technology: FPT transitioning to AI-First company
Technology: FPT is transiting from IT service provider to AI-First company FleziPT AI platform drives FPT transformation (based on data from FPT Software’s website) AI-First • • AI agents AI-augmented engineers 25,000+ 1,500+ 30% workforce AI-augmented AI experts Productivity increase • AI champions
Slide 31: FMCG giants awaken with marketing, distribution, and product revamp
Key themes and outlook FMCG giants awaken with marketing, distribution, and product revamp
Slide 32: Improvements in tech, distribution, and marketing strengthen moat
Improvements in tech, distribution, and marketing pave the way for stronger moat and revenue growth 2023-2024 2025 2026 Direct retailer coverage Digital 4P • Reduce sales via wholesalers from • Modernize mom & pop Masan 60% to 30%. shops. • SKUs/order and POS/salesperson • B2B app for shops to place
Slide 33: Product launches and relaunches are speeding up
Product launches and relaunches are speeding up 2023-2024 2025 2026 forward • 22 new products* in all categories, including Masan • Pioneered premium and new flavors of novel ready meals and Consumer seasonings, F&B premium seasonings. • 8-in-1 Chante detergent helped market share grow from 5.5% to
Slide 34: Agricultural commodity prices remain elevated YoY
Agricultural commodity prices remain elevated YoY Average whole & skim milk powder prices Wheat & malt prices 600 14 4,500 500 4,000 12 3,500 10 400 USD/bushel 3,000 USD/MT USD/MT 2,500 8 300 2,000 6 1,500 200 1,000 4 500 Wheat futures Barley malt, France 100 2 0 0 0 Sugar & soy prices Vegetable oil
Slide 35: FMCG gross margins historically held firm as input costs pass through
However, FMCG gross margins have historically held firm as input costs pass through to consumers Agricultural commodity index* and FMCG GPM** UN Food Index (LHS) SAB (RHS) VNM (RHS) QNS (RHS) MCH (RHS) 60% 160 55% 150 50% 140 45% 130 40% 120 35% 110 30% 100 25% 90 20% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2
Slide 36: Premiumization continues as consumers trade up
Premiumization continues as consumers trade up from economy to mainstream, and from premium to super premium Proportion of high-income households is expected to rise What drives consumer preference for premium offerings?* 80% 100% 60% 90% 40% 80% 20% 0% 70% Look for ways to Seek curated Like to be S
Slide 37: Top Picks
Top Picks Vietcap~
Slide 38: Consumer team's top picks
Consumer team’s top picks Stocks Comments MSN Strong consumer ecosystem that focuses on consumers’ daily essential needs. • Grocery retail chain became profitable and is expanding quickly amid supportive regulations. • FMCG champion recovering from GT disruptions. • Other major businesses also becam
Slide 39: MWG – Robust earnings growth driven by DMX and BHX
MWG – Robust earnings growth driven by both DMX and BHX Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F Share Price (Jul 28) VND65,200 Revenue (VND bn) 156,458 188,499 219,544 251,181 YTD MWG Target Price (TP)* VND101,000 %YoY 16.5% 20.5% 16.5% 14.4% VNI NPAT-MI (VND bn) 7,037 8,531 10,067 11,897 1Y EPS % YoY 89
Slide 40: MSN – Consumer-retail ecosystem, additional boost from mineral
MSN – Consumer-retail ecosystem, additional boost from mineral Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F Share Price (Jul 28) VND65,700 Revenue (VND bn) 81,621 96,121 106,923 121,288 YTD MSN Target Price (TP)* VND101,200 %YoY -1.9% 17.8% 11.2% 13.4% VNI EBIT % YoY 28.3% 19.5% -3.2% 18.4% 1Y Upside to TP +5
Slide 41: FRT – Healthcare dominance to drive long-term growth
FRT – Healthcare dominance to drive long-term growth Rating1 BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F Share Price (July 28) VND107,700 Revenue (VND bn) 51,083 63,950 74,216 82,519 YTD FRT Target Price (TP)1 VND180,100 %YoY 27% 25% 16% 11% NPAT-MI (VND bn) VNI 795 1,147 1,637 2,049 % YoY 150% 44% 43% 25% 1Y Upside
Slide 42: Retailers trade at attractive valuations
Retailers trade at attractive valuations with TTM P/E and forward P/E approaching -1SD band 60 Retailer TTM P/E 50 MWG, FRT, PNJ 40 40.7x 30 30.7x 20 20.7x 10 10.7x 0 0.7x Jan-16 Jul-17 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-21 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-20 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jan-26 Jul-22 Ju
Slide 43: FMCG names below historical mean on TTM P/E, above on forward P/E
FMCG names are trading below their historical mean on a TTM P/E basis, but above it on a forward P/E basis 20 FMCG TTM P/E SAB, VNM, QNS, MCH 18 16 16.3x 14.8x 14 13.3x 12 11.9x 10 10.4x 8 Jul-19 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-18 Jul-23 Jul-20 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jul-26 TTM P/E Mean +1SD -1SD +2SD -2SD FMCG forward P/
Slide 44: Consumer Sector: Key data
Consumer Sector: Key data Code Rating Market State Foreign Foreign ADTV Share Target Target price, Upside Div. yield 12M TSR cap, O'ship limit avail, USD 30D, price, VND price, VND updated USD mn mn USD mn ps ps FRT BUY 732 0.0% 49% 119 1.6 107,700 180,100 17/06/2026 67.2% 0.0% 67.2% VTP M-PF 344 60
Slide 45: Consumer Sector: Summary valuations
Consumer Sector: Summary valuations Code Share EPS g EPS g EPS g P/E P/E P/E EV/EBITDA ROE P/B Net D/E price, VND 2025 2026F 2027F 2025 2026F 2027F 2026 2026F LQ LQ ps % % % x x x x % x x FRT 107,700 150% 44% 43% 23.1 16.0 11.2 9.1 24% 4.1 0.7 VTP 44,800 -5% -16% -16% 18.7 22.3 26.5 16.6 17% 6.1 -0.
Slide 46: Other Stocks
Other Stocks Vietcap~
Slide 47: PNJ – Near-term earnings headwinds amid P-Lab incident
PNJ – Near-term earnings headwinds amid P-Lab incident Rating1 M-PF 2025 2026F2 2027F2 2028F2 Share Price (July 28) VND32,650 Revenue (VND bn) 34,976 45,913 48,208 53,297 YTD PNJ Target Price (TP) 1 VND46,500 %YoY -8% 31% 5% 11% VNI NPAT-MI (VND bn) 2,828 3,136 2,687 3,191 Upside to TP +42.4% % YoY
Slide 48: PNJ's temporary buyback settlement policy
PNJ’s temporary buyback settlement policy OPTION 1 — CONVERT TO OTHER PNJ PRODUCTS Product category Conversion amount Additional incentive <50% of buyback value +3% on top of current promotions Jewelry & gifts ≥50% of buyback value +5% on top of current promotions Loose diamonds* No threshold 5% dis
Slide 49: Buybacks cool down following new policy
Buybacks cool down following implementation of new policy Total revenue and buyback value (VNDbn): Jul 1-20 vs Jul 21-27, 2026* *Temporary buyback settlement policy applied from July 21, 2026 Total revenue Total buybacks Implied avg. daily Implied avg. daily revenue buyback ▲ 151% ▼ 44% 5,900 295 19
Slide 50: Scenario analysis of PNJ's buyback capacity – Assumptions
Scenario analysis of PNJ’s buyback capacity – Assumptions Our key assumptions for all three scenarios Buyback assumptions VNDbn Estimated total diamond sales in 2016-H1 2026 37,649 Estimated total diamond buyback value in 2016-H1 20263 30,119 Inventory assumptions1 VNDbn Inventory value of raw mater
Slide 51: Scenario analysis of PNJ's buyback capacity – Base case
Scenario analysis of PNJ’s buyback capacity – Base case Our estimates of PNJ's cash flow under the 120-day buyback settlement policy (base case) VNDbn Cumulative net cash flow - RHS Cumulative cash in - LHS Cumulative cash out - LHS 18,000 2,000 16,000 1,000 14,000 0 12,000 -1,000 10,000 -2,000 8,00
Slide 52: Scenario analysis of PNJ's buyback capacity – Best case & Worst case
Scenario analysis of PNJ’s buyback capacity – Best case & Worst case Our estimates of PNJ's cash flow under the 120-day buyback settlement policy (best case) VNDbn Cumulative net cash flow - RHS Cumulative cash in - LHS Cumulative cash out - LHS 18,000 6,000 15,000 3,000 12,000 9,000 0 6,000 Debt &
Slide 53: VND13.5tn inventory at end-Q1 2026
VND13.5tn inventory at end-Q1 2026 Breakdown of inventory VNDbn End-Q1 2026 Finished goods 7,292 Merchandised 3,473 Raw material 2,200 Work in process & others 453 Tools and supplies 44 Total 13,461 53 Source: PNJ, Vietcap
Slide 54: Bank borrowings at end-Q1 2026 mostly secured by inventories
Bank borrowings at end-Q1 2026 were mostly secured by inventories Details of short-term debt INTEREST (PER BANK AMOUNT (VNDbn) MATURITY DATE COLLATERAL ANNUM) Woori Bank Vietnam Limited 161 June 19, 2026 6.10% Inventories HSBC Bank (Vietnam) Limited 53 May 1, 2026 6.90% Unsecured KEB Hana Bank – Ho
Slide 55: Real estate
Real estate Cumulative +5% p.a. +10% p.a. +15% p.a. Purchase Years Purchase Batch Year Book Value Mkt Value Mkt Value Mkt Value (VNDbn) Held (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) Original plot 2016 205 10 334 532 830 Purchase 2017 2017 75 280 9 116 177 264 Purchase 2018 2018 179 459 8 265 383 548 Purchase
Slide 56: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Analyst Certification of Independence We, Vinh Bui, Ngan Ly, Nguyen Nguyen, and Giang Bui, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or wil
Slide 57: Contacts
Contacts Research Giang Bui, Senior Manager Research team Nam Hoang, Head of Research +84 28 3914 3588, ext 125 +84 28 3914 3588 +84 28 3914 3588, ext 124 giang.bui@vietcap.com.vn research@vietcap.com.vn nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn Vinh Bui, Senior Analyst Ngan Ly, Senior Analyst Nguyen Nguyen, Analyst
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company — VAD Bangkok 2026 on 6ix