Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company · HOSE:VCI
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock — VAD Bangkok 2026
44 slides from Vietcap Securities Joint Stock's conference presentation, August 2026
Slide 1: Banking Sector: Quality, resilience come first in an uncertain macro environment
Banking Sector Quality, resilience come first in an uncertain macro environment August 2026 Nam Hoang Head of Research nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn +8428 3914 3588 ext.123 Ngoc Huynh Quan Vu Nga Ho Vuong Dinh Manager Manager Analyst Analyst ngoc.huynh@vietcap.com.vn quan.vu@vietcap.com.vn nga.ho@vietcap
Slide 2: Macro recap and outlook
Macro recap and outlook Vietcap~
Slide 3: Credit-deposit growth gap persists, but interbank rates have recently cooled
Credit - deposit growth gap persists, but interbank rates have recently cooled Credit growth vs deposit growth (YoY basis)* SBV open market operations ( VNDtn ) 25% 20.0% 700 20% 15.0% 500 15% 10.0% 300 10% 5.0% 100 5% 0.0% -100 0% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-17 Jul-25 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jul-26 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jul-2
Slide 4: Infrastructure developments drive mid- and long-term credit demand
Infrastructure developments drive mid - and - long term credit demand List of select major infrastructure projects in Vietnam (*) (USDbn) CAPEX Expected loan raising From Sector Project Investor(s) Note 2026 2027 2028 2029 (USDbn) (USDbn) 2030 - Bank debt/ capex ~45%, the remaining is by ACV's Airpo
Slide 5: Strong credit demand prompts upward pressure on longer tenor funding
Strong credit demand prompts upward pressure on longer tenor funding 3- month and 12 - month quoted deposit rates* CD rates currently offered by a large private bank** 9.0% 9.5% 9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 6.0% 8.5% 8.0%8.0%8.0% 5.0% 8.0% 7.5% 4.0% 7.3% 3.0% 7.5% 2.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Slide 6: Prolonged Middle East conflict triggers market expectation of a Fed rate hike
Prolonged Middle East conflict triggers market expectation of a Fed rate hike, which indirectly affects Vietnam’s macro environment US inflation is highly correlated with changes in oil prices Consensus shifts to an earlier rate hike as conflict returned* 0.1 2 70.0% 0.08 1.5 60.0% 0.06 1 50.0% 0.04
Slide 7: H1 trade deficit weighs on FX, but H2 surplus should provide relief
H 1 trade deficit weighs on FX, but H 2 surplus should provide relief Ramping up chip & ram inventory amid AI trend causes a huge Despite its small size relative to total imports, the additional jump in imports deficit due to oil prices still worsens the trade balance 300 14 12 250 12 200 45% YoY 10
Slide 8: Fiscal disbursement provides a buffer for GDP growth and interest rates
Fiscal disbursement provides a buffer for GDP growth and interest rates cooling down The Government could raise its public investment budget this year to boost growth State budget surplus/(deficit) ( USDbn )** 1,200 60% 20.0 1,000 50% 15.9 40% 800 30% 15.0 Record high surplus with only 32% fiscal di
Slide 9: While the SBV maintains a flexible policy stance to support the system
While the SBV maintains a flexible policy stance to support the system Major supporting policies Circular 08 /2026 /TT - NHNN : Treasury deposits at listed State - owned banks (*) • Add back 20% of term deposits from the State Treasury to the regulated LDR calculation and allows the SBV to decide 60
Slide 10: Buffers to mitigate upward pressure and contain interest rates
Overall, we believe there are buffers to mitigate the upward pressure and contain the interest rates level Risks Buffers Crowding out effect from large Accelerating fiscal disbursement in Q4 infrastructure projects given limited capital Prolonged Middle East conflict with Fed rate SBV easing policie
Slide 11: Retail credit demand has weakened amid higher rates
Retail credit demand has weakened amid higher interest rates, but we expect manageable near - term NPL formation in 2026 Total condo transactions in the primary markets of Hanoi and HCMC (‘000 units)* Quarterly mortgage growth at selected banks** 25 8.0% 20 7.0% 15 6.0% 5.0% 10 4.0% 5 3.0% 0 2.0% Q1
Slide 12: Banking sector recap and outlook
Banking sector recap and outlook
Slide 13: Stronger earnings growth in 2026 given robust TOI growth and well-contained costs
Stronger earnings growth in 2026 given robust TOI growth and well - contained costs assuming manageable macro volatility 2026 vs Indicators* 2025 2026F H1 2026 2025 Comments on 2026F outlook Credit growth sustained at a high level, driven by strong Credit growth 20.0% 17.6% 9.0% economic growth mome
Slide 14: 8 out of 12 banks delivered H1 2026 results in line with or beating expectations
8 out of 12 banks delivered H 1 2026 results in line with or beating our expectations Stock % H1 results vs Beat/Trail/In Downside risk / Upside Comments full - year forecast line potential TOI/PBT: Beat on NIM expansion + NOII surge; ~VND1.9tn bond-provision reversal flatters VCB Beat Upside 56% /
Slide 15: Strong balance-sheet expansion and disciplined cost control to drive profit growth
Strong balance - sheet expansion and disciplined cost control to drive high - teens profit growth in 2026 - 2027 F NPAT, quarterly (VNDtn) NPAT, yearly (VNDtn) 90 35% 400 40% 79 80 350 35% 68 30% 34% 70 63 300 30% 30% 58 60 60 25% 60 52 54 25% 50 250 25% 50 20% 200 20% 40 19% 18% 15% 16% 150 15% 30
Slide 16: Credit growth momentum moderated in H1 2026 but remains healthy
Credit growth momentum moderated in H 1 2026 after strong growth in 2025 , but remains healthy Monthly system - wide credit growth Annual system credit growth 20.0% 20% 19.0% 180% 16.5% 15.8% 170% 15.0% 15.1% 15.3% 15% 13.6% 14.2% 13.7% 160% 10.0% 158% 154% 149% 150% 5.0% 145% 10% 140% 136% 0.0% 131
Slide 17: Medium-to-long-term loan growth driven primarily by the corporate segment
Medium –to - long - term loan growth remained the driver in Q1 2026 , driven primarily by the corporate segment Loan growth by term (*) QoQ growth in mortgages balance (**) 35.0% 8.0% 28.8% 30.0% 7.0% 25.0% 6.0% 20.0% 5.0% 13.9% 15.0% 4.0% 10.0% 3.0% 4.5% 5.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 18: Banks with preferential credit quotas continue to outperform sector growth
Banks with preferential credit quotas continue to outperform sector growth H1 2026 credit growth of banks under our coverage Credit growth and CAR of banks under our coverage 2025 credit 2026F credit 2027F credit Latest CAR Basel 25.0% growth growth growth II 22.7% VCB 15.3% 14.0% 16.0% 11.1% 20.4%
Slide 19: Manageable pressure from credit-funding gap with diversified funding sources
Manageable pressure from credit - funding gap with banks diversifying their funding sources and the SBV’s liquidity support Annual system - wide deposit growth and funding growth* 2025 - 2027F CAGR deposit of banks under our coverage 16.0% 14.6% 50% 45% 14.0% 13.2% 13.2% 12.0% 12.1% 40% 12.0% 10.7%
Slide 20: Many large banks have strong funding optionality profiles
Many large banks have strong funding optionality profiles State - linked profiles Large private banks Mid - size private banks BID CTG VCB MBB TCB VPB HDB ACB STB VIB TPB LPB Q1 2026 CASA ratio 20.2% 24.9% 34.2% 33.1% 37.9% 13.9% 10.4% 23.1% 16.2% 14.2% 20.0% 6.6% Special policy benefit Mandatory-tr
Slide 21: BID, VCB, VPB, HDB, MBB have specific capital raising plans in 2026-2027
BID, VCB, VPB, HDB, MBB have specific capital raising plans in 2026 - 2027 Capital % of shares in issue, post Latest CAR Basel raising Yes/No Target investors Transaction method money II plan Under private placement: Private placement and/or BID Yes 9.7% professional investors, domestic & 9.6% publi
Slide 22: Q2 NIM improvement supports expectations for 2026 NIM to stabilize
Upward pressure on interest rates persists, but Q2 NIM improvement supports our expectations for 2026 NIM to stabilize YoY Aggregate NIM, yearly NIM by bank, yearly 3.94% 6.0% 3.78% 5.5% 5.29% 5.0% 4.5% 4.30% 3.53% 4.0% 3.76% 3.42% 3.60% 3.5% 3.33% 3.30% 3.29% 2.80%2.77%2.68% 3.0% 2.75%2.70% 3.12% 2
Slide 23: Strong pure fee income to drive NOII growth
Strong pure fee income to drive NOII growth while other NOII moderates from a high base in 2025 Aggregate pure NFI (VND bn) Aggregate other NOII (VND bn) 90,000 35% 100,000 35% 80,000 30% 90,000 30% 30% 29% 70,000 26% 25% 80,000 25% 25% 70,000 60,000 20% 20% 18% 60,000 16% 50,000 15% 15% 16% 15% 50,
Slide 24: Q2 2026 asset quality indicates pressures from higher rates
Q2 2026 asset quality indicates pressures from higher rates but broadly moderate at most banks, except STB and HDB Asset quality of Vietcap’s banking coverage Asset quality of banks as of Q2 2026 6.00% 140% 8.00% 300.0% 5.00% 120% 7.00% 250.0% 100% 6.00% 4.00% 80% 200.0% 5.00% 3.00% 60% 4.00% 150.0%
Slide 25: Challenges arising from macro headwinds to be manageable in 2026F
We expect challenges arising from macro headwinds to be manageable in 2026 F NPL ratio grossed up for write - offs Aggregate credit costs and LLR for our coverage 2.80% 1.9% 170% 2.60% 1.7% 150% 2.40% 1.5% 130% 2.20% 1.3% 2.00% 110% 1.1% 1.80% 90% 0.9% 1.60% 70% 0.7% 1.40% 0.5% 50% 1.20% 2021 2022 2
Slide 26: Top-tier asset quality names emerge with stronger buffers
Amid the uncertainties, top - tier asset quality names emerge with stronger buffers to counteract negative impacts NPL ratio grossed up for write - offs Credit costs of banks under coverage 8.00% 3.0% 7.00% 2.5% 6.00% 2.0% 5.00% 4.00% 1.5% 3.00% 1.0% 2.00% 0.5% 1.00% 0.00% 0.0% VCB CTG BID ACB TCB L
Slide 27: Q1 2026 better-than-expected CIR improvement indicates additional buffer
Q1 2026 better - than - expected CIR improvement indicates additional buffer for earnings Number of branches & transaction offices (*) Staff headcount (thousand) (*) 6,550 2.0% 220 8.0% 6,500 215 1.0% 6.0% 6,450 210 6,400 0.0% 205 4.0% 6,350 200 2.0% 6,300 -1.0% 195 6,250 190 0.0% -2.0% 6,200 185 -2
Slide 28: Stock performance recap and top picks for 2026
Stock performance recap and top picks for 2026
Slide 29: Banking stocks' average return modest in 2026 YTD after strong 2025
After a strong performance in 2025 , banking stocks’ average return has been modest in 2026 YTD YTD share price performance* YTD share price performance by bank 35.0% 40% 30.0% 25.0% 30% 20.0% 20% 15.0% 10.0% 10% 5.0% 0.0% 0% -5.0% -10% -10.0% -15.0% -20% SOE banks Private banks Vietcap coverage VN-
Slide 30: Foreign investors continued to be major net sellers of banks in 7M 2026
Foreign investors continued to be major net sellers of banks in 7M 2026 given rising macro headwinds Net foreign flows for our coverage banks ( USDmn ) Net foreign flows by bank (USDmn) 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 (50) (200) (100) (400) (150) (600) (200) (800) (250) (300) (1,000) (350) (1,200) (400) (1,4
Slide 31: Current valuation looks somewhat attractive but not at a significant discount
Current valuation looks somewhat attractive but not at a significant discount yet when compared to the historical range Our coverage currently trades at an average trailing P/B of 1.59x, which is 0.3 standard deviations below the 5 - year average 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 COVID pandemic Russia-Ukrain
Slide 32: We favor large-scale banks with defensive qualities
We favor large - scale banks with defensive qualities in a more uncertain macro environment • Amid continued volatility in the macro environment, MBB and CTG remain our top picks, supported by their top-tier fundamentals and highly attractive valuations. • Under a pessimistic scenario in which eleva
Slide 33: VCB, CTG, MBB, and ACB stand out in defensive qualities vs peers
VCB, CTG, MBB, and ACB stand out in terms of defensive qualities vs peers Total assets as of Q2 2026 (USDbn) NPL ratio, Group 2 ratio, and LLR as of Q2 2026 140 12.00% 300% 120 10.00% 250% 8.00% 200% 100 6.00% 150% 80 4.00% 100% 60 2.00% 50% 40 0.00% 0% VCB CTG BID ACB TCB MBB LPB TPB HDB VIB VPB ST
Slide 34: Key data and summary valuations
Key data and summary valuations Banking sector: Key data State For. For. ADTV Div. Market Cap USD Share Price Target Price Target price TSR Code Rating O’ship Limit Avail 30D Upside % Yield mn VND ps VND ps updated % % % USD mn USD mn % CTG BUY 9,391 64.5% 30% 514 10.6 31,800 50,000 05/15/26 57.2% 0
Slide 35: Appendix
Appendix Vietcap~
Slide 36: Most banks reaffirmed 2026 targets but are more cautious
Most banks reaffirmed 2026 targets in May but are more cautious due to external pressures Stock PBT guidance NIM Credit quota/ Asset quality Further comments on outlook guidance growth guidance guidance ROE of 17%-18% is feasible and sustained. FX & NFI to grow 5- Slightly VCB 5%-10% 13% Flat YoY 10
Slide 37: MBB - BUY, target price of VND36,000/share
MBB - BUY, target price (TP) of VND36,000/share Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F Share Price (Aug 03) VND24,000 PPOP (VND bn) 48,012 60,668 76,427 92,785 MBB VNI YTD Target Price (TP)* VND36,000 % YoY 25.0% 26.4% 26.0% 21.4% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 26,779 32,206 38,691 45,049 1Y % YoY 18.3% 20.3% 20.1% 1
Slide 38: CTG - BUY, TP of VND50,000
CTG - BUY, TP of VND50,000 Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F Share Price (Aug 03) VND31,800 PPOP (VND bn) 60,744 70,004 81,154 91,916 Target Price (TP)* VND50,000 % YoY 2.3% 15.2% 15.9% 13.3% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 34,591 40,411 45,935 50,889 % YoY 36.5% 16.8% 13.7% 10.8% Upside to TP +57.2% EPS % YoY 36
Slide 39: VPB - BUY, TP of VND38,000
VPB - BUY, TP of VND38,000 Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F VPB VNI YTD Share Price (Aug 03) VND25,500 PPOP (VND bn) 56,023 69,313 83,937 101,770 Target Price (TP)* VND38,000 % YoY 16.9% 23.7% 21.1% 21.2% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 23,990 30,913 37,142 43,687 1Y % YoY 52.0% 28.9% 20.1% 17.6% Upside to TP 49
Slide 40: VCB - BUY, TP of VND78,500
VCB - BUY, TP of VND78,500 Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F VCB VNI Share Price (Aug 03) VND60,800 PPOP (VND bn) 47,205 56,057 68,818 82,768 YTD Target Price (TP)* VND78,500 % YoY 3.6% 18.8% 22.8% 20.3% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 35,178 41,866 49,808 57,452 1Y % YoY 4.0% 19.0% 19.0% 15.3% Upside to TP +29.1
Slide 41: ACB - BUY, TP of VND27,100
ACB - BUY, TP of VND27,100 Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F ACB VNI Share Price (Aug 03) VND22,500 PPOP (VND bn) 22,872 24,433 28,266 33,024 YTD Target Price (TP)* VND27,100 % YoY 1.2% 6.8% 15.7% 16.8% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 15,623 17,921 20,077 23,213 1Y % YoY -6.9% 14.7% 12.0% 15.6% Upside to TP +20.2
Slide 42: TCB - BUY, TP of VND42,600
TCB - BUY, TP of VND42,600 Rating* BUY 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F TCB VNI Share Price (Aug 03) VND29,950 PPOP (VND bn) 36,959 42,373 51,204 60,882 YTD Target Price (TP)* VND42,600 % YoY 16.9% 14.6% 20.8% 18.9% NPAT-MI (VND bn) 25,290 29,124 34,664 41,251 1Y % YoY 17.5% 15.2% 19.0% 19.0% Upside to TP +42
Slide 43: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Analyst Certification of Independence We, Nam Hoang, Quan Vu, Nga Ho, Vuong Dinh, and Ngoc Huynh hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities or issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,
Slide 44: Contacts
Contacts Research Nam Hoang, Head of Research Research team +84 28 3914 3588, ext 123 +84 28 3914 3588 nam.hoang@vietcap.com.vn research@vietcap.com.vn Ngoc Huynh, Manager +84 28 3914 3588, ext 138 ngoc.huynh@vietcap.com.vn Quan Vu, Manager +84 28 3914 3588, ext 364 quan.vu@vietcap.com.vn Nga Ho, An
Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company — VAD Bangkok 2026 on 6ix