Slide 1: Final TFMES workshop
Final TFMES workshop Updates based on the Minister’s positions on Fluxys-Elia scenarios for the upcoming hydrogen and electricity development plans 05/02/2026
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Elia nor Fluxys have the models/competences to estimate accurately and readily the impact of some political measures (energy norm, tax shift…) on the energy future. Therefore, a pragmatic method was used for these impacts. The changes which were made are to be considered in this light.
Slide 3: Agenda of the meeting
Agenda of the meeting Scenarios and process The Minister’s positions Updates - Final energy demand Updates - Energy supply & other Next steps 3
Slide 4: Scenarios and process
Scenarios and process fluxys® —@ria
Slide 5: Scenarios result of an intensive co-creation process
Reminder: the scenarios which were proposed for the federal development plans are the result of an intensive co-creation process Task Force Multi-Energy Scenarios = New collaboration between Fluxys and Elia to transparently co-create long-term energy scenarios together with our stakeholders WORKSHOP
Slide 6: Scenario development
Scenario development We are here 2025 2026 I J I F I M I A I M I J I J I A I S I O I N I D I J I F I Scenario building Advice Workshop to Workshops Consultation FPS & BFP present changes to scenarios Submission Minister scenarios position on scenarios The scenarios are now frozen This presentation o
Slide 7: Reminder - Three scenarios for the demand
Reminder - Three scenarios for the demand Demand three scenarios Fulfilling the same level of useful demand with different energy vectors Current commitments & ambitions - ‘BASE’ – announced targets, policies, existing trends and governmental ambitions Accelerated electrification – ‘ELEC’ – high lev
Slide 8: Reminder - Four scenarios for the supply
Reminder - Four scenarios for the supply Electricity generation one scenario + three sensitivities Central scenario – announced targets, policies, existing trends and governmental ambitions Local sensitivity – more decentral renewable energy production – lower ambitions for nuclear and non-domestic
Slide 9: The Minister's positions
The Minister’s positions fluxys® —@ria
Slide 10: Minister's positions - summary
Minister’s positions - summary Minister’s position on scenarios N° Position (Demand) Impact Pre-crisis industrial production levels for all scenarios + impact Higher final energy demand in the short-term (2030-2035) mainly due 1 energy norm to the update of the production levels (pre-crisis). Lower
Slide 11: Updates – Final Energy Demand
Updates – Final Energy Demand
Slide 12: Minister's positions lead to higher final energy demand in the short-term
Energy demand – total impact The Minister’s positions lead to higher final energy demand in the short-term, limited impact on the long-term Impacts on final energy demand – excl. int transport, feedstock, grid losses BASE TWh Inclusion Minister’s positions 420 409 388 397 389 377 362 362 164 137 114
Slide 13: Higher electricity demand in the short-term
Energy demand – total impact The Minister’s positions lead to a higher electricity demand in the short-term Electricity demand Including grid losses and CCS, excluding electrolysers TWh 200 195 ELEC Scenarios including the Minister’s positions 180 177 BASE Scenarios submitted to the Minister 163 MOL
Slide 14: Pre-crisis industrial production levels and energy norm
Industry 01 The Minister’s position: +Pre-crisis industrial production levels for all scenarios impact energy norm The Minister’s position Implementation method Adapt the BASE, MOL, ELEC production levels for 2030-2035 to 2021 levels – but remove confirmed closures (and add new projects) Energy norm
Slide 15: Buildings: incorporate federal tax shift
Buildings 02 The Minister’s position: incorporate federal tax shift The Minister’s position Implementation method Buildings: faster HP uptake in favour of gas & oil boilers Note: Elia-Fluxys does not have models which are capable of translating customer energy prices and taxation measures directly i
Slide 16: Buildings: final energy demand impact
Buildings 02 The Minister’s position: incorporate federal tax shift The Minister’s position Implementation method Buildings: faster HP uptake, inspired from calculations performed in the context of the VEKP Impacts on final energy demand in the building sector (residential + tertiary) BASE TWh 120 1
Slide 17: National transport - Cars
National transport - Cars Additional insight 04 The Minister’s position: adapt EV uptake assumptions for BASE & MOL to the proposed revised EU 2035 vehicle ban Passenger cars Amount of BEV in Belgium Millions 7 Key assumptions 6.0 6.2 6.1 ELEC 6.0 5.9 6 5.8 • BASE: 100% BEV sales from 2040 (was 2035
Slide 18: Adapt EV uptake to revised EU 2035 vehicle ban
National transport - Cars 04 The Minister’s position: EU adapt EV uptake assumptions for BASE & MOL to the revised 2035 vehicle ban The Minister’s position Implementation method Delay EV uptake in BASE & MOL (ICE sales after 2035) Keep the same 2050 level, as economics did not change in the long run
Slide 19: Postpone ban on gas boilers in existing buildings
Buildings 05 The Minister’s position: postpone the ban on gas boilers in existing buildings to 2035 in WL (ELEC) The Minister’s position Implementation method Adapt the trajectory no new oil from 2031, gas from 2035 However: note that in the ELEC scenario both mazout and gas boilers were assumed pha
Slide 20: Update CCS assumptions based on latest data
Greenhouse has emissions 03 The Minister’s position: update CCS assumptions based on latest data The Minister’s position Implementation method Review CCS assumptions with the most recent data Impacts Crosscheck has been performed with commercial department and latest known public information → NO IM
Slide 21: Updates - Supply & other
Updates - Supply & other fluxys® —@ria
Slide 22: Lower domestic offshore wind capacity
Electricity supply 6+7 The Minister’s positions lead to a lower domestic offshore wind capacity Offshore wind domestic - trajectories for the Federal Development plan Central scenario Large-scale sensitivity Local scenario Capacity in GW Capacity in GW 7,4 7,0 6,7 5,9 1,5 5,5 1,5 5,2 1,5 1,4 1,4 4,4
Slide 23: No changes in non domestic offshore
Electricity supply / No changes in non domestic offshore following the Minister’s position on the scenarios Reminder: • All scenarios and sensitivities foresee the implementation of non-domestic offshore wind in the Belgian electricity mix. • Three distinct trajectories are proposed reaching between
Slide 24: No changes in nuclear
Electricity supply / No changes in nuclear following the Minister’s position on the scenarios Reminder: • Central scenario assumes extension of Doel4/Tihange3 only (Tihange1 extension was removed from central scenario after comments received during public consultation) and assumes also new nuclear c
Slide 25: 30% data centre flexibility in FLEX+ sensitivity
Supply – Elec flexibility 08 The Minister’s position: 30% data centre flexibility in the FLEX+ sensitivity The Minister’s position Implementation method Adapt the value for the FLEX+ sensitivity Impacts 1. Higher flex in the FLEX+ (30% vs 20% before) 25
Slide 26: Additional scenario respecting intermediate targets
Additional scenario 09 The Minister’s position: additional scenario respecting intermediate targets The Minister’s position Implementation method All scenarios are adapted based on Tax shift and Energy norm measures. (cf. previous slides) LULUCF data is included as given. RED III minimum target is i
Slide 27: Additional sensitivity Hydrogen+
Additional sensitivity H2+ H2+ 10 The Minister’s position: additional sensitivity Hydrogen+ The Minister’s position Implementation method Develop a hydrogen-focused sensitivity using DG Energy assumptions (section 6.3, p.70 of DG Energy advice) to estimate maximum hydrogen demand Impacts Recommendat
Slide 28: Methane security of supply & repurposing capacity needs
Methane SoS & repurposing 11 The Minister’s position: capacity needs for methane security of supply and study of reconversion need to H should be taken into account 2 The Minister’s position Implementation method It will be taken into account Fluxys will ensure that the need for methane transmission
Slide 29: Carbon emissions and import dependence after market simulations
Additional indicators 12 The Minister’s position: carbon emissions and import dependence should be (re-)computed after market simulations The Minister’s position Implementation method It will be done for the simulated scenarios (which will be decided with the CdC) and share it in the development pla
Slide 30: Next steps
Next steps fluxys® —@ria
Slide 31: Next steps
Next steps • Publication of the slideset presented to the TFME as annex to the scenario report (the public consultation scenario report will not be updated) • Elaboration of the development Plans Electricity and Hydrogen • As a reminder: we will not be able to simulate all scenarios and sensitivitie
Slide 32: Scenario use: Federal Development Plan of electrical transmission grid
What will the scenarios be used for? Federal Development Plan of the electrical transmission grid Elia publishes its Federal Development Plan (FDP) every 4 years Horizon: +10 years Scope: the Belgian federal electricity transmission grid (110 – 380 kV + HVDC) Next one to be approved by: the Federal
Slide 33: Scenario use: National Development Plan of hydrogen network
What will the scenarios be used for? National Development Plan of the hydrogen network Fluxys publishes its Indicative National Development Plan (NDP) every year Horizon: +10 years Scope: Fluxys Belgium & Fluxys LNG Most recent version: Indicative NDP 2025-2034, published in September 2025 Next vers
Slide 34: Thank you
THANK YOU for your valuable contribution to this process!