Fluxys Belgium Sa Class D · EURONEXT:FLUX
Fluxys Belgium Sa Class D — Fluxys — Investor Presentation (March 2025)
38 slides from Fluxys Belgium Sa Class D's investor presentation, Mar 13, 2025
Slide 1: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER These slides are provided for reference only. Due to the evolving nature of the workshop preparations, it cannot be guaranteed that the figures included in these slides are perfectly aligned with the assumptions submitted in the public consultation. In case of inconsistency between figure
Slide 2: Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios Kick-Off meeting
Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios Kick-Off meeting Elia-Fluxys, Brussels Hilton, 13/03
Slide 3: Welcome!
Welcome ! by Leen Vanhamme & James Matthys-Donnadieu 3
Slide 4: Meetings, governance and rules
Meetings, governance and rules • The chair will be co-shared between Elia and Fluxys • Fluxys chair: Juan Vazquez • Elia chair: Rafael Feito-Kiczak • Meetings will be conducted in English • The goal is to constructively co-create future energy scenarios. As such everyone should respect the opinions
Slide 5: Agenda of the Kick-off
Agenda of the Kick-off 1. Context : Royal Decree for National Plan Development (NDP) • Explanation of the e-NDP • Explanation of the g-NDP 2. General Process Taskforce multi-energy scenarios • Global Planning • Proposal of Workshops Contents 3. Scenarios build up • Storylines • Scenarios parameters
Slide 6: 1. Context: Royal Decree for National Plan Development (NDP)
1. Context: Royal Decree for National Plan Development (NDP) -> Why joint scenarios ? -> Electricity NDP short overview -> Gas NDP short overview
Slide 7: Gas Hydrogen Package
Gas Hydrogen Package Context • The Directive (Art.55) provides an obligation for HTNOs to prepare a TYNDP every 2Y, incl. decommissioning and repurposing. This can be prepared separately but also jointly with the gas TYNDP. One joint scenario (H2/NG/E) needed for system integration. Need to adapt BE
Slide 8: Royal Decree and Collaboration Elia-Fluxys
Royal Decree and Collaboration Elia-Fluxys Royal Decree 05/2024 • New decree governing the federal national development plans • The e-TSO and the HNO must each construct a National Development Plan (NDP) for 2027 • Elia-Fluxys need to involve each other for the creation of the scenarios Objectives 2
Slide 9: Royal Decree and Collaboration Elia-Fluxys
Royal Decree and Collaboration Elia-Fluxys Timings • Elec-NDP (Elia’s Federal development plan) is to be published earlier than H-NDP • We propose to follow the Elec - NDP’s timeline for the creation of scenarios (the strictest) Scenario consultation methodology • Discussion of input parameters to b
Slide 10: The Federal Development Plan for the electricity transmission grid
The Federal Development Plan for the electricity transmission grid Elia publishes its Federal Development Plan (FDP) every 4 years Horizon: +10 years Scope: the Belgian federal electricity transmission grid (>70 kV) The Federal Development Plan describes:* » The hypotheses and scenarios that serve a
Slide 11: An updated Royal Decree as of May 2024
An updated Royal Decree as of May 2024 A new Royal Decree w.r.t. Federal Development Plans was adopted on 12/05/2024: ► « Koninklijk besluit tot vaststelling van de procedure voor de opstelling, goedkeuring en publicatie van het netontwikkelingsplan voor het waterstofvervoersnetwerk en het ontwikkel
Slide 12: Roadmap for the FDP 2028 – 2038
MAY. 2027 Roadmap for the FDP 2028 – 2038 Publication on DEC. 2026 - JAN. 2027 Elia Website Update plan 1 AUG. – SEP. 2026 Include the latest available information at national and international level: a list of Update plan & SEA FEB. - APR. 2027 11 sources are listed in the RD Advices FPB & SPF + 2
Slide 13: Elia's Development Methodology for the transmission grid
Development Methodology for the transmission grid Elia’s Development Methodology for the transmission grid Dynamic Needs detection Definition of portfolio Scenarios the solution management Inve 034 stm Well- –2 en ba la 24 tp 20 nc ro ed P jec Cros mples FD inv s- Bac kb ts estm bo rde ent po on r &
Slide 14: Importance of long term energy scenarios
Importance of long term energy scenarios (beyond the plan’s 10 year horizon) 1 (Very) long project throughput times 2 Long lifetime of infrastructure Projects need to be planned long(er) upfront, requiring Project viability needs not only to be assessed for its already early on insights on the futur
Slide 15: 10-Year indicative investment plan
10-Year indicative investment plan • This Plan is updated each year • Horizon : 10 years • Scope : natural gas transmission grid • The indicative investment plan describes : • Include major investments are compatible with the energy transition by reducing its GHG emissions or building new infrastruc
Slide 16: Hydrogen network operator in a nutshell
Hydrogen network operator in a nutshell 07/2023 : Hydrogen law • Rules for the future Hydrogen Network Operator (HNO) • Designation process Belgian HNO 11/2023 : Creation Fluxys hydrogen 04/2024 : Fluxys hydrogen → HNO for 20 years 05/2024 : Royal Decree • Procedure for the development, approval, an
Slide 17: Roadmap for the H2 NDP 2028 – 2037
Indicative timings Roadmap for the H2 NDP 2028 – 2037 Apr-Jul. 2025 Jul-Sep. 2025 Workshops Public Consultation Oct-Nov 2025 Mar. 2025 Opinion DGE/FPB Kick-off Dec. 2025 Jan-Oct. 2026 Minister request CBA Analysis and First Draft NDP Apr-Jun. 2027 Strategic Jul-Oct. 2027 Oct. 2027 Dec-Mar. 2027 Opin
Slide 18: 2. General Process Taskforce multi-energy scenarios
2. General Process Taskforce multi-energy scenarios
Slide 19: The goals of the task force multi-energy scenarios
The goals of the task force multi-energy scenarios The collaboration between Elia, Fluxys and their respective stakeholders on the TF Wide Vision scenarios ensures a wide range of credible multi-energy scenarios are used as basis for the NDPs The TF multi-energy scenarios will foster transparency on
Slide 20: Overview of the draft planning of workshops and public consultation
Overview of the draft planning of workshops and public consultation 2025 March April May June July August September October November December Public consultation FOD & FPB opinion 13/03 AM 17/04 AM 03/06 AM 08/07 AM Kickoff Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Buildings & transport Minister’s Industry d
Slide 21: Workshops: Proposed Topics
Workshops : Proposed Topics • Workshop 1 : Energy Demand 1st • Residential + tertiary Energy Demand • Transport Energy Demand • Workshop 2 : Energy Demand 2nd and Local Supply Industry • Industry Energy Demand • Industry Local Supply • Workshop 3 : Supply and techno-economical assumptions • Electric
Slide 22: Joint consultation to gather different inputs
Elia and Fluxys will organise a joint consultation where different inputs will be gathered. Some elaborated jointly and some by the relevant TSO given the expertise Input Welcomed Demand input EU supply & Annual values Annual values parameters demand Techno- Electricity- economic Location, € / η / t
Slide 23: The taskforce scenarios lead to inputs for the individual NDPs
The taskforce scenarios leads to inputs for the individual NDPs Electricity NDP Electricity specific inputs - Electricity demand - Electricity supply, flex, storage - Electricity flexibility & storage +Sensitivities! - Electricity grid - Electricity system cost assumptions Taskforce multi-energy sce
Slide 24: 3. Scenarios build up
3. Scenarios build up fluxys® —€Siia
Slide 25: Expectation management for the scenario process
Expectation management for the scenario process Included Excluded • The models used in the individual NDP’s will use ex-ante defined • Process will not directly include economical optimization and/or input scenarios expansion of supply capacities, final energy demand, and • Demand and supply inputs
Slide 26: Uncertainties
A varied set of scenarios is needed to study uncertain futures In order to evaluate the future needs for the energy system and/or the value of new projects, it is necessary to defining possible future scenario storylines and their underlying causes and consequences Studied time horizons: 2025 2030 2
Slide 27: Constructing consistent scenarios
Constructing consistent scenarios Example Scenario storylines “Customer driven energy transition” Energy transition happens at the side A narrative providing background and a rationale for the assumptions of a certain scenario of the end-consumer… Scenario • High rooftop solar PV • High flexibility
Slide 28: Defining and combining reasonable future demand and supply scenarios
The goal of the taskforce consists of defining and combining reasonable future demand and supply scenarios Supply scenarios Techno-economical scenarios Demand scenarios Scenario storylines Electricity supply capacities … Energy vectors Cost & technical parameters Methane Electricity Liquid fuels X X
Slide 29: Common assumptions for all scenarios
Common assumptions for all scenarios For all scenarios: • Belgium reaching net-zero 2050 in all scenarios • Industry at constant production levels (i.e no additional industry closures, relocation) • Follows official projections as much as possible* (Bureau du Plan, NECP, …) • Follow official legisla
Slide 30: Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed
Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed Accelerated Electrification – Scenario reaching high levels of electrification in all sectors (near full electrification of road transport and building heat) – Molecules are applied in hard to electrify sectors such as international transport and fe
Slide 31: Quantifying future final and useful energy demand
It is proposed to quantify future final and useful energy demand in a deterministic* manner INPUT SCENARIOS MODEL OUTPUT Macro-economical, geo-political and Yearly volume calculation Energy demand per demographical inputs XXX • Demographics & housing vector & sector • Industrial output CH4 Electrici
Slide 32: Many options exist to supply Belgium's electricity demand
Many options exist to supply Belgium’s electricity demand Different levers can be chosen to supply this demand These choices have several impacts Onshore wind Offshore wind Non-territorial offshore* Imports/exports In the Belgian EEZ Build interconnectors & offshore wind balance Needed to match Dema
Slide 33: Molecule supply and CO2 will be taken into account
Molecule’s supply and CO2 will be taken incount Direct Supply Conversion Storage Imports Regas. Storage Production Biomethane Methanation Exports of LNG CH4 Imports Regas Ammonia Tanks Salt Electrolysis SMR Exports cracking cavern H2 CH4 H2 H2 & deriva- tives H2 H 2O CO2 NH3 N2 H2 Imports Carbon Dir
Slide 34: 4. Other references and scenarios
4. Other references and scenarios
Slide 35: References required for the electricity and H2 NDP
The electricity and H2 NDP require the usage of a set of references Organization Title Topic Geographical scope Link Final NECP - Belgium - English version - NECP Energy and climate plan European Commission Multi-energy scenarios + TYNDP electricity* Download | ENTSOs TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Electricit
Slide 36: Other long term multi-energy studies
Other long term multi-energy studies which can be used as basis/inspiration for the scenario creation Organization Title Scenario years Geographical scope Type of model 2030 2035 2040 2050 TYNDP 24 (2024) Fixed demand inputs TYNDP 26 ongoing (partial) optimization of supply 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Slide 37: 5. Next steps & call for evidence
5. Next steps & call for evidence
Slide 38: Next steps & call for evidence
Next steps & call for evidence • Reminder next Workshops • 17/04 : Buildings and Transport Demand • 03/06 : Industry demand & supply • 08/07 : Electricity and molecule supply and techno-economical parameters • 14/07 : Launch of public Consultation • 14/09 : End of the public consultation • Call for