Slide 1: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER These slides are provided for reference only. Due to the evolving nature of the workshop preparations, it cannot be guaranteed that the figures included in these slides are perfectly aligned with the assumptions submitted in the public consultation. In case of inconsistency between figure
Slide 2: Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios
Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios Workshop 2, Industry demand & local supply Elia-Fluxys, Elia, 03/06
Slide 3: Welcome!
Welcome ! by Nico Vanderpijpen & Rafael Feito-Kiczak
Slide 4: Meetings, governance and rules
Meetings, governance and rules • The chair is co-shared between Elia and Fluxys • Fluxys chair: Nico Vanderpijpen (replacing Juan Vazquez) • Elia chair: Rafael Feito-Kiczak • Meetings will be conducted in English • The goal is to constructively co-create future energy scenarios. As such everyone sho
Slide 5: Name + Organisation
Please state your Name + Organisation before providing feedback or asking a question (even if it's the fourth time) Thank you ☺ 5
Slide 6: Agenda of the Workshop
Agenda of the Workshop Context reminder: Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan Responses to feedback from Workshop 1, Transport and Building sectorial demand Industry 1. General modelling approach 2. Historical energy demand evolution 3. Details per subsectors Next steps & call for
Slide 7: Context: Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan
Reminder Context : Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan
Slide 8: The taskforce scenarios leads to inputs for the individual NDPs
The taskforce scenarios leads to inputs for the individual NDPs Reminder Electricity NDP Electricity specific inputs - Electricity demand - Electricity supply, flex, storage - Electricity flexibility & storage +Sensitivities! - Electricity grid - Electricity system cost assumptions Taskforce multi-e
Slide 9: Quantifying future final and useful energy demand deterministically
Reminder It is proposed to quantify future final and useful energy demand in a deterministic* manner INPUT SCENARIOS MODEL OUTPUT Macro-economical, geo-political and Yearly volume calculation Energy demand per demographical inputs XXX • Demographics & housing vector & sector • Industrial output CH4
Slide 10: Common assumptions for all scenarios
Reminder Common assumptions for all scenarios For all scenarios: • Belgium reaching net-zero 2050 in all scenarios • Industry at constant production levels (more details in the next parts of the presentation) • Follows official projections as much as possible* (Bureau du Plan, NECP, …) • Follow offi
Slide 11: Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed
Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed Reminder Accelerated Electrification - Elec – Scenario reaching high levels of electrification in all sectors (near full electrification of road transport and building heat) – Molecules are applied in hard to electrify sectors such as international
Slide 12: The electricity and H2 NDP require the usage of a set of references
The electricity and H2 NDP require the usage of a set of references Reminder Organization Title Topic Geographical scope Link Final NECP - Belgium - English version - NECP Energy and climate plan European Commission Multi-energy scenarios + TYNDP electricity* Download | ENTSOs TYNDP 2024 Scenarios E
Slide 13: Carbon neutrality in 2050
Carbon neutrality in 2050 European Commission: 2050 long-term strategy “The EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050 – an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This objective is at the heart of the European Green Deal, and is a legally binding target thanks to the European Climate Law.” “EU M
Slide 14: Overview of the draft planning of workshops and public consultation
Overview of the draft planning of workshops and public consultation Reminder 2025 March April May June July August September October November December Public consultation FOD & FPB opinion 13/03 AM 17/04 AM 03/06 AM 08/07 PM Kickoff Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Minister’s Buildings & transport I
Slide 15: Responses to feedback from Workshop 1
Responses to feedback from Workshop 1 Transport and Building sectorial demand
Slide 16: Transport sector
Transport sector ❑ Legislations: • Regulations before 2030 (electric vans 2027) <- Found that this legislation is on LEZ in Flanders, but we welcome more information. • European legislations: - CO2 standards <- Not formally taken into account since we don’t model the emission from ICE cars. - Intern
Slide 17: Transport sector – rail sector
Transport sector – rail sector We assume 100% of passenger rail transport to be electric as of 2030 Modal share of rail passenger transport increases from 8% today to 12% in 2050 driving the consumption upward 2,0 1,5 ~23% increase in passenger.km assumed for rail transport in the next 5 years TWh 1
Slide 18: Transport sector – passengers/car & energy efficiencies
Transport sector – passengers/car & energy efficiencies kWh / km 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 EV efficiency 18.8 18.4 17.9 17.8 17.8 Source : Public consultation of Adequacy & Flexibility 2025 Passengers / car 2025 -> 2050 Car occupancy 1.3 Source : Wallonia contribution to NECP 18
Slide 19: International Transport: Vector share proposal
International Transport : Vector share proposal Values for shipping presented during the last workshop were corrected Int Aviation Int Shipping 1% 1% 17% 51% 2050 32% 2050 98% Methane Carbon liquids(fossil, bio or e-fuel) Electricity Hydrogen Ammonia We propose to use the same shares over the energy
Slide 20: Building sector
Building sector ❑ All the buildings built after 2010 do not need to be renovated, which decreases the total amount of buildings to renovate ? If we have enough time. It will be implemented before the public consultation. ❑ Make categories between small and deep renovation ? Not implemented in this i
Slide 21: Building sector
Building sector Evolution of new builds & renovations • New names for the scenarios to prevent confusion, as the previous names suggested a specific technology for the renovation. Historical and assumed renovation rate per region 3.0% NECP objective : 3% now 2.5% Delayed ambitions : 3% in 2050 BXL 2
Slide 22: Industry
Industry fluxys® —@ria
Slide 23: Some disclaimers
Input Welcomed Some disclaimers • The confidentiality of Elia & Fluxys’ customers data is the highest priority. • Elia & Fluxys received input data from various stakeholders. We are open for further discussions. • The presented data and modelling is subject to (your) feedback and potential revision.
Slide 24: Agenda
Agenda 1. General modelling approach 2. Historical energy demand evolution 3. Details per subsector 24
Slide 25: 1. Industry – General Modelling Approach
1. Industry – General Modelling Approach
Slide 26: General modelling approach for the industry
General modelling approach for the industry Historical data as a starting point: • Energy demand (TWh) • Production data (e.g. kton) Production evolution Processes/technologies towards 2050 + evolution towards 2050 Evolution of the energy demand towards 2050 26
Slide 27: Available data for modelling
Available data for modelling Historical data Data to be used for building future scenarios (processes/technologies) External studies Energy demand • BE level (cf. next slide) • EU level: Green deal, Fit for 55 (ETS, RED III), • Statbel/SPF/Eurostat energy balances CBAM, Net-Zero Industry Act,… (+reg
Slide 28: Numerous external studies on energy demand evolution in Belgium
In recent years, numerous external studies have been published on the evolution of energy demand in Belgium and its industrial sectors Non-exhaustive list: • 2020: Vlaio – Climact – Deloitte - VUB: “A roadmap for transitioning to a carbon-neutral Flemish industry” • 2021: Climact – FPS Public Health
Slide 29: Production evolution of the industrial sector towards 2050
Production evolution of the industrial sector towards 2050 • Making projections for the future production levels of Belgian industries is challenging. • Production projections depend on many factors: • Global and domestic demand (+level of export, …) • Industrial competitiveness (energy efficiency,
Slide 30: Capacity utilization rate of the Belgian manufacturing industry decreased
Capacity utilization rate of the Belgian manufacturing industry decreased since the European energy crisis Belgian Industrial production capacity utilization rate % 90 COVID-19 European energy crisis Russian Invasion 85 Ukraine 80 80% - 2021 level -6%. 76% - 2021 level 75 74 70 -11%. If capacity uti
Slide 31: Options for production evolution of Belgian industries
Options for production evolution of Belgian industries The reference/starting point is a key hypothesis to be defined per industrial sector. Two options are possible with a constant capacity level: Assumes that Belgian industries 1. Keep pre-crisis (2021) production levels constant (as will recover
Slide 32: 2. Industry – Historical energy demand evolution
2. Industry – Historical energy demand evolution
Slide 33: Industry represents around 50% of total energy demand in Belgium
The industry sector represents around 50% (incl. feedstock) of the total energy demand in Belgium Final energy demand per sector 1990-2023 350 TWh Industry 300 250 200 150 Households (national) Transport 100 Tertiary 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Slide 34: Industry energy demand concentrated in energy-intensive industries
The lion’s share of industry energy demand is concentrated in a limited number of energy-intensive industries Final energy demand + feedstock remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, with a noticeable declining trend emerging since the energy crisis in 2022. Final energy demand per industr
Slide 35: Today's industry energy demand remains dominated by fossil fuels
Today’s industry energy demand remains dominated by fossil fuels The relative importance of energy vectors has remained relatively constant over time, with a slight shift from solids & oil towards gas, electricity and biomass. Electricity is mainly used for mechanil purposes, whereas fossil fuels fo
Slide 36: Focus on the six most energy intensive sectors + data centers
In this presentation we focus on the six most energy intensive sectors + data centers Final industry energy demand per energy vector and sector in Belgium 2023 76 • Those six sectors account for more than 85% of 50 the industrial energy consumption in Belgium 45 // 40 40 • For those sectors the larg
Slide 37: 3. Industry - Details per subsectors
3. Industry - Details per subsectors 3.1. Food, beverages & tobacco 3.2. Refineries 3.3. Chemical and Petrochemical 3.4. Non-metallic minerals 3.5. Iron & Steel 3.6. Data centers 3.7. Other sectors
Slide 38: General assumptions for the scenarios for Belgian industries
General assumptions taken into account during the preparation of the scenarios for Belgian industries • Process changes/modifications require heavy investments • Industries take investment decision for more than 15 years • New and existing processes are meant to operate at high capacity factors • Be
Slide 39: 3.1 – Food, beverages & tobacco
3.1 – Food, beverages & tobacco
Slide 40: Historical energy use per vector in food, beverage and tobacco
Historical energy use per vector in the food, beverage and tobacco sector Final energy demand in the food & drink sector has largely followed historical output increase, with a stagnation in the last 2 years following the European energy crisis Production levels Final energy demand Base = 2021 TWh 1
Slide 41: Decarbonize heat production traditional routes
Decarbonize heat production traditional routes Low T° heat Gas CH4 boilers (below 100°C) Oil CH4 CHP Biomass Oil boilers High T° heat (above 100°C) Biomass boilers 41
Slide 42: Decarbonize heat production with electrification
Decarbonize heat production with electrification Heat-pumps E-boilers Elec Low T° heat CH4 CH4 boilers (below 100°C) CH4 CHP Oil Biomass Oil boilers High T° heat (above 100°C) Biomass boilers 42
Slide 43: Decarbonize heat production with electrification
Decarbonize heat production with electrification Heat-pumps COP = 3 E-boilers η = 99% Elec Low T° heat CH4 boilers (below 100°C) CH4 η = 85% CH4 CHP Oil ηe = 40% & ηth = 40% Biomass Oil boilers η = 65% High T° heat (above 100°C) Biomass boilers η = 85% 43
Slide 44: Top-down methodology from final energy to useful demand
Methodology uses top-down approach due to high amount of actors From current final energy consumption to useful demand Current Final Energy Consumption Conversion Useful demand TWh efficiencies TWh per energy source per useful demand 18.7 18.7 Others 1.1 GAS Biomass 0.8 • 80% with boilers 16.2 4.9 H
Slide 45: Scenario storylines
Scenario storylines ELEC Full electrification is reached by 2050 No gas heating remaining in 2050 HPs: play a key role for electrifying low temperature heat BASE Almost full electrification (95%) is reached by 2050 Remaining 5% of gas heating in 2050 E-boilers are key for both low and high temperatu
Slide 46: Assumed future technology shifts for three scenarios
Assumed future technology shifts for three scenarios ELEC BASE MOL Gas heating HP Gas heating Gas heating Heat HP HP T < 100°C E-boilers E-boilers E-boilers 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 Gas heating Gas heating Gas heating Heat T > 100°C E-boilers E-boilers E-boilers Biomass boilers B
Slide 47: From useful demand to future final energy consumption
From useful demand to future final energy consumption Electrification is the main lever for decarbonisation in all scenarios, initially this comes in parallel with existing gas supply (with flexibility benefits), remainder of gas will need to be compensated or low carbon Useful demand Shifts Efficie
Slide 48: 3.2 – Refineries
3.2 - Refineries fluxys® —@ria
Slide 49: Locations of operational refineries in Belgium
Locations of operational refineries in Belgium The two remaining Belgian refineries are amongst the largest (4th & 5th) in Europe, located at the heart of the Antwerp industrial cluster Closure of 2 refineries in Belgium Antwerp In 2020 In 2021 Source: Concawe 49
Slide 50: Belgian refineries utilisation rate remained high
Belgian refineries utilisation rate remained high during recent energy crisis Historical utilisation has been relatively constant over time, with output mainly being impacted by capacity expansions, closures and COVID-19. Capacity utilization increased during the European energy crisis Belgian refin
Slide 51: Historical energy demand by vector in refineries
Historical energy demand by vector in refineries Oil refining mostly requires high temperature heat for subsequent distillation, conversion and quality treatments via furnaces and steam boilers. Most of the energy consumed within the sector is auto-produced, as refinery (gas) byproducts from the ref
Slide 52: Assumption on the future production of the refineries
Assumption on the future production of the refineries We assume that oil refining output will remain constant until 2050, taking the reference year 2022. Despite the decreased demand for fossil fuels, primarily due to the electrification of transport, we expect Belgian refineries to operate at the s
Slide 53: Assumed evolution of the production in refineries
Input Example of the assumed evolution of the production in refineries Welcomed Net oil refinery production 35 30 25 Mt 20 Evolution of the domestic demand according to Energia’s study 15 • one possible scenario 10 5 0 2022 2030 2035 2040 2050 Domestic consumption Export (net production – domestic c
Slide 54: Scenario storylines
Input Scenario storylines Welcomed Common assumptions: - Byproducts such as refinery gas remain when refining oil: these are continued to be used for combustion - Their emissions will be compensated by CCS ELEC Steam boilers are being replaced by electric boilers and some furnaces by electric furnac
Slide 55: Evolution of the energy demand in refineries
Input Illustration of the evolution of the energy demand in refineries Welcomed 20 TWh 15 ELEC 10 5 0 20 22 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 50 20 15 BASE Fuel switch remains 10 relatively limited, with most of the 5 decarbonization 0 20 22 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 50 expected to come 20 from CCS 15 MOL 10 5 0 20 2
Slide 56: 3.3 – Chemicals & Petrochemicals
3.3 – Chemicals & Petrochemicals (including feedstock)
Slide 57: Map of main consumers
Map of main consumers Prayon Evonik Borealis Bayer + many more Antwerp BASF Total Envalior sites and Olefins companies Alco Air biofuel Eurochem Liquide INEOS Vynova Yara Tessenderlo INEOS Total Feluy Classification based on EU-ETS reporting and nacecodes • 20.11 Manufacture of industrial gases • 20
Slide 58: Historical evolution of the feedstock demand
Historical evolution of the feedstock demand (not only for chemical & petrochemical sector) Change in accounting 100 93 93 TWh 89 91 4 87 3 88 87 88 90 86 3 3 84 83 81 82 80 81 82 81 4 3 3 3 5 80 3 78 78 77 3 • Around 95% of the total feedstock demand in 80 4 4 5 5 16 74 4 4 4 15 13 76 76 4 3 3 13 1
Slide 59: Historical energy demand evolution in chemical and petrochemical sector
Historical energy demand evolution in the chemical and petrochemical sector 60 Energy crisis TWh impact: - 18% Change in accounting 50 50 50 49 50 48 48 48 48 45 47 46 47 • Energy demand in the chemical sector is 43 43 mainly distributed among 3 energy 40 40 11 vectors: 37 36 37 37 12 13 14 14 15 11
Slide 60: Belgian manufacturing industry impacted by the European energy crisis
The Belgian manufacturing industry were heavily impacted by the European energy crisis Belgian Industrial production capacity utilization rate % 90 COVID-19 Russian Invasion European Ukraine energy crisis 85 80 76% - 2021 level 75 74 70 -11%. For the preparation of 65 this workshop, 2021 65 was cons
Slide 61: Taking into account (de)commissioning of projects
Taking into account (de)commissioning of projects The following projects are expected to be (de)commissioned by 2030: • INEOS Project One (1450 kton ethylene) • Borealis PDH plant (750 kton propylene) • Yara Tertre ammonia production plant will stop. Fertilizer production remains and will be fed by
Slide 62: Scenario storylines (feedstock demand)
Input Welcomed Scenario storylines (feedstock demand) ELEC BASE Naphtha and other oil products are progressively replaced by ethane and LPG (new projects) but also by the use plastics waste (recycling), biomass products and hydrogen-based molecules. MOL Hydrogen-based molecules combined with CO have
Slide 63: Illustrative evolution of the total feedstock demand
Illustrative evolution of the total feedstock demand (TWh) Input Welcomed BASE ELEC MOL 120 • 2030: Increase in feedstock 110 109 105 106 demand due to new projects 102 4 101 4 (ethane & LPG) 100 16 16 95 92 8 88 2 2 16 8 88 4 16 3 3 • Decreasing feedstock demand 5 2 10 16 towards 2050 due to more 1
Slide 64: High level explanation of the methodology
High level explanation of the methodology Total energy demand Input Welcomed Energy demand evolution Mechanical energy Process heating Space heating & lighting >400°C 100-400°C <100°C Energy vector Energy vector Energy vector shares (final shares (final shares (final demand) demand) demand) Efficien
Slide 65: Total energy demand repartition for EU (excl. feedstock)
Total energy demand repartition for EU1 (excl. feedstock) Heat shares for chemical processes2 8% 20% 30% 30% 63% 50% space heating >400°C 100-400°C <100°C mechanical energy and lighting process heating Assumptions: • The same repartition is applicable to Belgium • Space heating is considered as low
Slide 66: Vector shares for each temperature range for space and process heating
Vector shares for each temperature range for space and process heating (reference year) The useful energy can be supplied by different energy vectors Final demand (TWh) Useful heat (TWh) 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 Efficiencies1 12 10 Low T° heat 10 8 pumps : 300% 8 6 E-boilers : 99% 6 Methane : 85% 4 Oil
Slide 67: Scenario storylines (energy demand)
Scenario storylines (energy demand) ELEC Major shift toward electrification of space and process heating (all temperature ranges), enabled by advances and cost reduction even in high-temperature electric heating (e.g. electric steam crackers). Carbon capture for remaining emissions. BASE Low tempera
Slide 68: Proposed evolution of energy vector shares for useful heat – BASE
Input Welcomed Proposed evolution of energy vector shares for useful heat (excl. new projects) – BASE scenario 2030 2050 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% <100°C 100-400°C >400°C <100°C 100-400°C >400°C Electricity Methane Carbon liquids Heat Hyd
Slide 69: Illustrative evolution of the energy demand (incl. additional projects)
Illustrative evolution of the energy demand (TWh) (incl. additional projects) BASE ELEC MOL 60.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 - - - 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 Electricity Methane
Slide 70: Historical evolution of emissions in the chemical sector
Historical evolution of emissions in the chemical sector (energy and process related) CO2 emissions (Mt/year) 8 7 • Process emissions could be considered constant (7 Mt/year) and would 6 account for ~3,5 TWh of additional electricity demand in 2050. 5 4 • Considering potential remaining combustion e
Slide 71: 3.4 – Non-metallic minerals
3.4 - Non-metallic minerals fluxys® —@ria
Slide 72: Non-Metallics Minerals Industries
Non-Metallics Minerals Industries This category contains the following industrial sectors : • Cement • Lime • Glass • Bricks & others Theses sectors will be analysed in this Non-Metallics Minerals Section Those industries involve very high temperature processes and some with unavoidable process emis
Slide 73: Historical energy use per vector
Historical energy use per vector Production levels Final energy demand Base = 2021 TWh 110 20 100 17 18 17 17 17 17 100 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 90 15 15 15 14 14 80 83 13 12 70 10 60 8 50 6 40 4 30 2 20 0 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Slide 74: 3.4.1 – Non-metallic minerals: Cement
3.4.1 – Non-metallic minerals : Cement
Slide 75: Map of main Producers
Map of main Producers CRH VVM Heidelberg Antwerp Cement Holcim Ghent Cemminerals Lixhe Heidelberg Antoing Heidelberg Cement Gauraing - Ramecroix Cement Obourg CCB Holcim Cement - Integrated Energy Cement - Clinker intensive part Cement - Milling 75
Slide 76: Historical Cement Production
Historical Cement Production Reference point: 2021 9,000 kT 8,192 8,000 7,594 7,150 7,157 6,980 6,930 6,935 7,000 6,844 6,773 6,715 6,710 6,643 6,717 6,550 6,491 6,280 6,364 6,275 6,255 6,119 5,990 5,990 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201
Slide 77: Dry processes to produce Cement
Dry processes to produce Cement Values in MWh/ton Milling Kiln - Clincker Product Fuel : 0.59 – 0.77 CEM II production: Raw material Fuel can be: Coal, Methane, Biomass, Non-renewable waste Kiln Electricity 0.08 Raw mill If CCS: Electricity 0.08 LC3 production : Fuel : 0.51 – 0.67 Fuel can be: Coal,
Slide 78: Scenario storyline for cement production
Input Scenario storyline for cement production Welcomed With the clear sites evolution for Holcim (GO4ZERO), CCB (FUTURECEM) and Heildeberg Cement (ANTHEMIS), only one scenario is proposed to follow the objectives of the sector with the following assumptions : • 75% of the cement produced is Portlan
Slide 79: Proposal: energy demand evolution for the cement production
Proposal: energy demand evolution for the cement production 6 TWh *excluding electricity for CCS 5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 3 1.4 2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 1 0.5 0.5 0 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 Solid Fuel Methane Non-renewable waste Biomass Electricity * 79 *excluding electricity for CCS
Slide 80: 3.4.2 – Non-metallic minerals: Lime
3.4.2 – Non-metallic minerals : Lime
Slide 81: Historical Lime Production
Historical Lime Production Reference point = Average 2017-2019 2,500 kT 2,000 1,500 2,100 1,000 1,848 1,753 1,770 1,740 1,738 1,640 1,647 1,550 1,207 1,267 1,205 1,208 1,173 1,147 1,185 1,181 1,154 1,100 1,099 500 969 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Slide 82: Map of main consumers
Map of main consumers Carmeuse Seilles Moha Carmeuse Aisemont Dumont-Wautier Jemelle Lhoist Lhoist Carmeuse 82
Slide 83: Dry processes to produce Lime
Dry processes to produce Lime Values in MWh/ton Kiln - Lime Milling Product Raw material (limestone) Lime production: Fuel : 1.25 -1.65 Fuel can be Methane, Hydrogen, Electricity (plasma), biomass Lime Mill Electricity 0.03 If CCS : Electricity 0.1 Kiln Lime Source: EuLA - A competitive and efficien
Slide 84: Scenario storylines for lime production
Input Scenario storylines for lime production Welcomed BASE • The Energetic Mix of 2021 (mostly Coal and liquids) will be partially switched to Biomass. • CCS technology will be implemented to capture the process and heat emissions. ELEC • The Energetic Mix of 2021 (mostly Coal and liquids) will be
Slide 85: Proposal: energy demand evolution for the lime production
Proposal: energy demand evolution for the lime production Input Welcomed BASE ELEC MOL TWh 3.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.8 2.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.3 2.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.5 0
Slide 86: 3.4.3 – Non-metallic minerals: Glass
3.4.3 – Non-metallic minerals : Glass
Slide 87: Historical Glass Production
Input Historical Glass Production Welcomed Reference point: Average 2017-2019 2,400 kT 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 2,261 2,294 2,254 2,181 2,172 2,114 1,000 2,049 1,877 1,934 1,753 800 1,644 1,594 1,548 1,575 1,375 1,399 1,326 1,289 600 1,194 1,162 1,176 1,108 400 200 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
Slide 88: Dry processes to produce Glass
Dry processes to produce Glass Values in MWh/ton Furnace Product Raw material: sand but more than 90% glass is recycling Fuel : - 1.4 – 1.6 for Container Glass - 1.5 – 1.7 for flat glass Flat Glass Glass production: - 2.2 - 2.6 for fiber glass Fuel can be Methane, Hydrogen, Electricity Container Gla
Slide 89: Scenario storylines for glass production
Input Scenario storylines for glass production Welcomed BASE • The energy mix of 2021 (mostly Methane) will be gradually switched to a mix between methane, hydrogen and Elec. • The CCS technology could be implemented to capture the emissions of the methane. ELEC • The energy mix of 2021 (mostly Meth
Slide 90: Proposal: energy demand evolution for the glass production
Proposal: energy demand evolution for the glass production Input Welcomed BASE ELEC MOL TWh 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 2.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.7 2.1 0.7 2.1 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 202
Slide 91: 3.4.4 – Non-metallic minerals: Bricks & others
Input Welcomed 3.4.4 – Non-metallic minerals : Bricks & others Unclear sector
Slide 92: Historical Bricks Production
Historical Bricks Production 3,500 kT 3,000 2,500 2,000 3,157 3,202 3,077 1,500 3,028 2,949 2,947 2,909 2,970 2,939 2,603 2,549 2,585 2,529 2,562 2,497 2,518 2,505 2,437 2,431 2,308 2,209 2,099 1,000 500 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Slide 93: Process to produce Bricks & Others
Process to produce Bricks & Others Values in MWh/ton Furnace Product Raw material Bricks production: Bricks Fuel can be Methane, Hydrogen, Electricity Tiles, ceramics Bricks Furnace … 93
Slide 94: Illustrative energy demand evolution for Bricks & Others
Input Illustrative energy demand evolution for Bricks & Others Welcomed BASE ELEC MOL TWh 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 2021 2030 2035 2040 2050 Solid Fuel Liquids Methane Hydrogen Biomass Electricity 94
Slide 95: 3.5 – Iron & Steel
3.5 - lron & Steel fluxys® —@ria
Slide 96: Current processes to produce steel in Belgium
Current processes to produce steel in Belgium Steelmaking Finishing Values in MWh/ton Ironmaking (into final products) Blast furnace + Iron pellets Primary Sinter Basic oxygen furnace Steel Coal (BF + BOF) 5.1 BF BOF Secondary Scrap + Electric arc Scrap Steel furnace (EAF) Electricity EAF 0.7 Finish
Slide 97: Map of main current consumers
Map of main current consumers ArcelorMittal* Ghent Aperam 2 BF - BOF Genk ArcelorMittal Clabecq Liège NLMK Segal ArcelorMittal La Louvière NLMK Liberty Steel Chatelet RIVA Segal Charleroi Industeel Primary Steel Aperam Secondary steel Finished products Sources: European Steel, Eurofer *note that Arc
Slide 98: Steel production and energy demand has decreased in recent years
Steel production and energy demand has decreased in recent years, following the European energy crisis Pre-crisis utilization of existing capacity would be assumed (2017-2019 reference period) Steel production in Belgium Energy demand Iron & Steel Mton steel/year TWh 12 50 45 10 Reference years for
Slide 99: Proposed scenarios
Proposed scenarios Input Welcomed ELEC BASE MOL Based on known projects and common to all scenarios: Primary & Gradual shift away from BF-BOF to → reduction of solid fuels Secondary 1) Initially EAFs (fed with imports/BFs) → impact on electricity Steel 2) Later DRIs that feed the EAFs → impact on me
Slide 100: Primary and secondary steel: decarbonization pathways
Primary and secondary steel : decarbonization pathways Input Welcomed Values in MWh/ton Ironmaking Steelmaking Finishing Iron pellets Blast furnace + Sinter Basic oxygen furnace Coal (BF + BOF + CCS) 5.1 & CCS + electricity BF BOF Primary Steel Can be imported Direct reduced iron + Iron pellets Elec
Slide 101: Primary steel: Storyline of ArcelorMittal Ghent's scenario
Primary steel : Storyline of ArcelorMittal Ghent’s scenario: 2030 2035 2040 2050 BF A + BOF 1 Running Decommissioned Decommissioned Decommissioned Decommissioned Decommissioned BF B + BOF 2 Running Running Alternative CCS Alternative CCS EAF 1 Running Running Running Running DRI 1 Not built Not buil
Slide 102: Primary and secondary steel: Historical and proposed production
Input Primary and secondary steel : Historical and proposed production Welcomed Mton of steel Average pre-crisis 10 production: Average projected production : 9 88 NLMK EAF in 8 La Louvière 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2030 2035 2040 2050 Proj
Slide 103: Resulting proposed energy consumption
Input Resulting proposed energy consumption Welcomed BASE 40 Final steel production is constant TWh But energy varies depending on assumed imports 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Historical (Average 2030 2035 2040 2050 2017-2019)* *Repartition between finished Solid Fuel Methane Electricity Hydrogen and steel
Slide 104: 3.6 – Data centers
3.6 - Data centers fluxys® —@ria
Slide 105: Three types of data center
Three types of data center Enterprise services Colocation Hyperscale Data center used to house IT Hosting a company's servers Massive single tenant data equipment for a single tenant, and IT equipment in a shared center, operated by a major with the IT equipment utilized data center to leverage secu
Slide 106: Belgium's attractiveness for data centers
Belgium’s attractiveness for data centers Although not being the top player, Belgium’s scores relatively well and is at a key geographical position in Europe. Source: BCG analysis The Power of Compute 2025 106
Slide 107: Historical growth in the capacity of data centers
Historical growth in the capacity of data centers MW 400 350 300 The rapid growth of data centers is driven by 250 223 • The rise in AI 200 • Cloud computing 157 • Mainly driven by Google as hyperscaler 150 100 51 100 99 63 66 36 50 50 44 44 45 45 45 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20
Slide 108: Scenario storylines
Scenario storylines BCG proposes three growth scenarios : Growth after 2030 is mainly driven by ongoing cloud adoption, with a slowdown in AI-related demand and / or LOW increase in productivity gains. MID Strong demand growth is balanced by major efficiency improvements in computing and storage. Ra
Slide 109: Assumed evolution of data center electricity demand
Assumed evolution of data center electricity demand Proposition to use the Mid case in the three scenarios 45 TWh 34.0 High case 30 23.0 18.5 Mid case 15.5 15 12.5 9.5 6.6 10.5 Low case 8.0 3,2 7.0 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Adeqflex 2025 Sources: BCG analysis The Power of Compute 2025, Ad
Slide 110: 3.7 – Other sectors
3.7 - Other sectors fluxys® —@ria
Slide 111: Other industrial sectors account for 15% of industrial energy demand
Other industrial sectors account for 15% of the industrial energy Input Welcomed demand in Belgium Evolution of final energy demand for industries including feedstock TWh 300 290 288 272 271 274 273 272 267 272 276 270 266 266 265 271 266 270 268 268 258 262 258 256 255 Total of 35-40 TWh for 10 252
Slide 112: Scenarios for other sectors will be available for the public consultation
Input Scenarios for other sectors will be available for the public consultation Welcomed Final industry energy demand per energy vector and sector in Belgium 2023 10 10 TWh • We welcome proactive 9 1 feedbacks/inputs before the 8 public consultation (e.g. sector 7 6 decarbonization roadmaps, specifi
Slide 113: Closing remarks
Closing remarks fluxys® —@ria
Slide 114: Next steps & call for evidence
Input Next steps & call for evidence Welcomed • Reminder next steps 2025 March April May June July August September October November December Public consultation FOD & FPB opinion 13/03 AM 17/04 AM 03/06 AM 08/07 PM Kickoff Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Buildings & transport Minister’s Industry d
Slide 115: Merci/dankuwel!
Merci/dankuwel! fluxys® —@ria