Slide 1: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER These slides are provided for reference only. Due to the evolving nature of the workshop preparations, it cannot be guaranteed that the figures included in these slides are perfectly aligned with the assumptions submitted in the public consultation. In case of inconsistency between figure
Slide 2: Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios
Taskforce Multi-Energy Scenarios Workshop 1, Transport and Building sectorial demand Elia-Fluxys, Elia, 17/04
Slide 3: Welcome!
Welcome ! by Juan Vazquez & Rafael Feito-Kiczak
Slide 4: Meetings, governance and rules
Meetings, governance and rules • The chair is co-shared between Elia and Fluxys • Fluxys chair: Juan Vazquez • Elia chair: Rafael Feito Kiczak • Meetings will be conducted in English • The goal is to constructively co-create future energy scenarios. As such everyone should respect the opinions of ot
Slide 5: Agenda of the Workshop
Agenda of the Workshop 1. Context : Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan • Common assumptions for all scenarios • Planning • Three Demand Scenarios 2. Transport Demand • Historical • Legislation • Methodology • Evolution of • National transport • International transport 3. Residen
Slide 6: Context: Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan
Reminder Context : Multi-Energy scenarios for the Federal Development Plan
Slide 7: The taskforce scenarios lead to inputs for the individual NDPs
The taskforce scenarios leads to inputs for the individual NDPs Reminder Electricity NDP Electricity specific inputs - Electricity demand - Electricity supply, flex, storage - Electricity flexibility & storage +Sensitivities! - Electricity grid - Electricity system cost assumptions Taskforce multi-e
Slide 8: Quantifying future final and useful energy demand deterministically
Reminder It is proposed to quantify future final and useful energy demand in a deterministic* manner INPUT SCENARIOS MODEL OUTPUT Macro-economical, geo-political and Yearly volume calculation Energy demand per demographical inputs XXX • Demographics & housing vector & sector • Industrial output CH4
Slide 9: Common assumptions for all scenarios
Reminder Common assumptions for all scenarios For all scenarios: • Belgium reaching net-zero 2050 in all scenarios • Industry at constant production levels (i.e no additional industry closures, relocation) • Follows official projections as much as possible* (Bureau du Plan, NECP, …) • Follow officia
Slide 10: Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed
Three demand scenarios are proposed to be analysed Reminder Accelerated Electrification - ELEC – Scenario reaching high levels of electrification in all sectors (near full electrification of road transport and building heat) – Molecules are applied in hard to electrify sectors such as international
Slide 11: References for the electricity and H2 NDP
The electricity and H2 NDP require the usage of a set of references Reminder Organization Title Topic Geographical scope Link Final NECP - Belgium - English version - NECP Energy and climate plan European Commission Multi-energy scenarios + TYNDP electricity* Download | ENTSOs TYNDP 2024 Scenarios E
Slide 12: Draft planning of workshops and public consultation
Overview of the draft planning of workshops and public consultation Reminder 2025 March April May June July August September October November December Public consultation FOD & FPB opinion 13/03 AM 17/04 AM 03/06 AM 08/07 AM Kickoff Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Minister’s Buildings & transport I
Slide 13: Workshops: Topics
Workshops : Topics Reminder • Workshop 1 : Energy Demand 1st • Transport Energy Demand Today • Residential + tertiary Energy Demand • Workshop 2 : Energy Demand 2nd and Local Supply Industry • Industry Energy Demand • Industry Local Supply • Workshop 3 : Supply and techno-economical assumptions • El
Slide 14: Some disclaimers
Input Welcomed Some disclaimers • Elia & Fluxys sat together with the Belgian Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to collect and analyse input data. • The presented data is subject to (your) feedback and potential revision. • As such the data should be considered draft and non-validated. We welcome
Slide 15: Transport sector
Transport sector fluxys® —@ria
Slide 16: Historical Energy Demand per Subsector
Historical Energy Demand per Subsector Final energy demand per sector 1990-2023 Delta with peak year 160 TWh Industry 140 Households 120 (national) Transport 100 80 Tertiary 60 40 20 Other 0 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162
Slide 17: Current Final Energy Demand per Subsector
Current Final Energy Demand per Subsector Final energy demand per sector, energy vector and usage - 2023 Residential Tertiary Industry Transport (national) 120 108 108 TWh 103 103 Other Freight 100 4 27 Other 18 industries 78 78 80 9 41 Road Freight Electrical 14 Non- 11 appliances metallic minerals
Slide 18: Main drivers & legislations
Main drivers & legislations Input Welcomed • ETS2: CO2 taxation enlarged to building & transport sector • Fit for 55: No more petrol & diesel engines sales (cars and vans) in 2035 • EU 2024/1610: Urban buses must be zero-emission by 2035 • EU 2024/1610: 90% reduction in CO2 emissions for HDVs* compa
Slide 19: Methodology: Evolution of Final Energy Demand towards 2050
Methodology: Evolution of Final Energy Demand towards 2050 Evolution of passenger & freight transport demand Yearly evolution towards 2050 Passenger-km Tons-km Distributed in transport mode Evolution of transport mode Evolution towards 2050 Modal shift Distributed in technology Example: passenger ca
Slide 20: Evolution of transport needs
Input Evolution of transport needs Welcomed • Proposal: follow the projections of the Plan Bureau Passengers Goods 160% 160% Historical Historical 140% 140% 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% % passengers.km % tons.km. 20% Base (100%) = 2020 20% Base (100%) = 2020 0% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025
Slide 21: Evolution of modal shares
Input Evolution of modal shares Welcomed • Proposal: follow the projections of the Plan Bureau Shares of passengers.km Shares of tons.km 100% 100% 7% 10% 12% 11% 90% 90% 15% 18% 8% 10% 10% 10% 80% 80% 10% 15% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 85% 80% 78% 40% 79% 75% 67% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Persp
Slide 22: How is the evolution of EV & HP stocks calculated?
How is the evolution of EV & HP stocks calculated? Car park – end 2023 Evolution of car park For each year + + NEW VEHICLE SALES _ - OLD VEHICLE REMOVAL For each region, for each segment 2023 22
Slide 23: Latest EV trends
Latest EV trends BEV uptake continued strongly in Belgium, despite slowdown in EU-27 BEV Share of new passenger car registrations in Belgium and the EU – 4 quarterly moving average Belgium 35 % 30 25 20 15 EU-27 10 5 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 24: Evolution of electric cars sold
Input Evolution of electric cars sold Welcomed Assumed BEV share (%) in new passenger cars sales: 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 66% 60% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Range BASE • Company cars: assumed 100% BEV/PH
Slide 25: Evolution of electric cars stock
Input Evolution of electric cars stock Welcomed Resulting EV (BEV+PHEV) share (%) in passenger cars stock: Million EVs in stock Million EVs in stock Million EVs in stock 4.5 2 Current registered amount of cars 1.87 million 0.50 Current registered amount of cars 0.5 million 4 1.8 0.45 Current registe
Slide 26: Evolution of vans technology shares
Evolution of vans technology shares Input Welcomed Share (%) of BEV in new vehicles Share (%) of BEV in stock 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 65% 60% 60% 45% European ban on fossil 40% vehicles 40% also applies on vans from 27% 2035 20% 20% 4% 0% 0% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 8% FL Reg
Slide 27: Evolution of trucks technology shares
Input Evolution of trucks technology shares Welcomed Share (%) of BEV & H2 in new vehicles BE Regional split proposal 100% 90% 80% 7% 70% 26% 60% 50% No more fossil 67% 40% 30% 20% FL WL BXL 10% Based on historical split ~ FEBIAC 0% 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Range electricity Range molecules BASE ele
Slide 28: Evolution of EV buses stock
Input Evolution of EV buses stock Welcomed Thousands of EV buses Total bus fleet also 18 Private bus fleet: ~10k depends on assumed 16 modal shift 14 12 Private buses: gradual 10 increase towards 100% BEV in 2050 but for BXL 8 where 100% BEV in 2035 Public bus fleet: ~6k 6 MIVB: BXL 100% BEV from 20
Slide 29: International transport
International transport fluxys® —@ria
Slide 30: International transport is an important demand driver for Belgium
International transport is an important demand driver for Belgium Input Welcomed Int Aviation 20 20 20 20 18 15 14 TWh 10 5 • The values proposed will be aligned with 0 the values submitted by Elia-Fluxys for 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 the TYNDP 2024 exercise Int Shipping • There are few sources on th
Slide 31: International Aviation: Energy demand
Input International Aviation : Energy demand Welcomed 30 TWh 25 TWh 25 20 15 10 5 0 Historic Proposal for all scenarios We propose to follow the TYNDP, ~1%/year increase in demand up to 2050 [1] EUROSTAT 31 [2] TYNDP 2024
Slide 32: International Shipping: Energy demand
Input International Shipping : Energy demand Welcomed 120 TWh 90 90 TWh 60 30 0 Historic Proposal for all scenarios [1] EUROSTAT 32 [2] TYNDP 2024
Slide 33: International Transport: Vector share proposal
International Transport : Vector share proposal Input Welcomed Int Aviation Int Shipping 1% 1% 17% 51% 2050 2050 32% 98% Liquids Electricity Hydrogen Methane Ammonia Values for Shipping changed compared to workshop to match TYNDP’s values 33 We propose to use the same shares over the energy vectors
Slide 34: Building sector - Residential
Building sector - Residential
Slide 35: Historical Energy Demand per Subsector
Historical Energy Demand per Subsector Final energy demand per sector 1990-2023 Delta with peak year 160 TWh Industry 140 Households 120 Transport 100 80 Tertiary 60 40 20 Other 0 199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Slide 36: Current Final Energy Demand per Subsector
Current Final Energy Demand per Subsector Final energy demand per sector, energy vector and usage - 2023 Residential Tertiary Industry Transport (national) 120 108 108 103 103 TWh Other Freight 100 Other 4 18 27 industries 78 78 80 Electrical 9 Non- 41 Road Freight 11 appliances 14 metallic minerals
Slide 37: Methodology: Evolution of Final Energy Demand towards 2050
Methodology: Evolution of Final Energy Demand towards 2050 Evolution of the building park: Surface - Energy efficiency Existing building park Yearly evolution towards 2050 Building park in 2050 Demographics + New passive buildings Renovations Corresponding demand Evolution of useful demand Evolution
Slide 38: Main drivers & legislations
Main drivers & legislations Input Welcomed • EPBD legislations • New buildings should be Zero-emission from 2030 onwards • Phase-out of fossil fuel boilers by 2040 • Decarbonized and zero-emission building stock by 2050 • ETS2: CO2 taxation enlarged to building & transport sector in 2027 • Federal g
Slide 39: Evolution of new builds & renovations - Residential
Input Evolution of new builds & renovations - Residential Welcomed • Elec: follow last 5 year avg new builds. In the context of Elia’s All 3 regions have an ambition to reach 3% according to NECP AdeqFlex study we align on 41k new dwellings per years and apply a Historically this rate has been bel
Slide 40: Resulting stock of heated buildings – Residential
Resulting stock of heated buildings – Residential Input Welcomed 100% 75% Base 50% 25% 0% 100% 75% Elec 50% 25% 0% 100% 75% 50% Mol 25% 0% 40
Slide 41: Resulting average useful heating demand per region
Resulting of average useful heating demand per region [kWh/m²] 100 80 60 40 120 100 80 60 40 120 100 80 60 40 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Input 41 Elec Base Mol Welcomed
Slide 42: Heating stock evolution from sales & removals
Heating stock evolution is obtained by taking sales & removals into account For each year Heating appliances – end 2023 + New appliances in NEW DWELLINGS Evolution of heating appliances New appliances in + RENOVATED DWELLINGS _ Old appliances in RENOVATED = DWELLINGS _ Old appliances in DEMOLISHED D
Slide 43: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Residential
Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Residential Input Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Flemish new dwellings : Flemish renovated dwellings : 100% 4% 4% 4% 8% 12% 4% 8% 10% 13% 20% 75% Elec 50% 96% 96% 96% 96%
Slide 44: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Residential
Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Residential Input Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation in Walloon new dwellings : Walloon renovated dwellings : 100% 5% 10% 5% 10% 15% 15% 25% 75% 47% 47% Elec 50% 98% 95% 90% 85% 95%
Slide 45: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Residential
Input Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Residential Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Brussels new dwellings : Brussels renovated dwellings : 100% 3% 4% 5% 10% 3% 5% 6% 6% 75% Elec 50% 100% 98% 97% 96% 95% 9
Slide 46: Resulting stock of appliances – Residential Primary Heat Pumps
Resulting stock of appliances – Residential Primary Heat Pumps Input Welcomed Millions 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 Millions 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 203
Slide 47: Resulting stock of appliances – Residential Gas boilers
Resulting stock of appliances – Residential Gas boilers Input Welcomed Million 3.0 3.0 Millions 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 20
Slide 48: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Base
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Base 100% 6% 3% 75% 11% 35% 2% 73% 50% 71% 25% 64% 55% 20% 0% 100% 7% 75% 2% 10% 40% 61% 50% 3% 25% 53% 40% 39% 25% 0% 100% 3% 75% 18% 3% 60% 81% 50% 79% 70% 25% 33% 14% 0% 48
Slide 49: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Elec
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Elec 100% 6% 11% 75% 24% 2% 75% 50% 84% 64% 59% 25% 16% 0% 4% 100% 15% 7% 75% 50% 29% 70% 3% 82% 25% 40% 38% 13% 0% 3% 100% 3% 5% 3% 21% 75% 70% 50% 91% 79% 67% 25% 23% 0% 4% 49
Slide 50: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Mol
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Residential – Mol 100% 2% 18% 75% 8% 42% 2% 50% 72% 72% 64% 25% 51% 0% 100% 3% 75% 23% 44% 8% 50% 3% 25% 55% 56% 40% 43% 0% 100% 3% 11% 75% 43% 69% 50% 79% 75% 25% 50% 26% 0% 50
Slide 51: Building sector - Tertiary
Building sector - Tertiary fluxys® —@ria
Slide 52: Historical Energy Demand per Subsector
Historical Energy Demand per Subsector Final energy demand per sector 1990-2023 Delta with peak year 160 Industry TWh 140 Households 120 Transport 100 80 Tertiary 60 40 Other 20 0 199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Slide 53: Evolution of new builds & renovations - Tertiary
Input Evolution of new builds & renovations - Tertiary Welcomed • Elec: follow last 5 year avg new builds All 3 regions have an ambition to reach 3% according to NECP Historically this rate has been below 1% • Mol: Based on Fluvius alignment already present in the Residential Proposal for the 3
Slide 54: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Tertiary
Input Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Tertiary Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Flemish new Tertiary buildings : Flemish renovated Tertiary buildings : 100% 4% 6% 8% 12% 3% 8% 12% 15% 9% 18% 25% Elec 75%
Slide 55: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Tertiary
Input Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Tertiary Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Walloon new Tertiary Buildings : Walloon renovated Tertiary Buildings : 100% 2% 4% 8% 12% 4% 10% 20% 15% 25% 33% 75% 47% Ele
Slide 56: Assumed evolution of Sales' heating devices - Tertiary
Input Assumed evolution of Sales’ heating devices - Tertiary Welcomed Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Assumed Sharing of technologies’ installation (%) in Brussels new Tertiary Buildings : Brussels renovated Tertiary Buildings : 100% 1.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 8.00% 9% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Slide 57: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary – Base
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary – Base 100% 6% 9% 3% 75% 12% 36% 66% 50% 61% 68% 25% 51% 22% 0% 100% 10% 6% 75% 3% 6% 18% 43% 50% 68% 64% 61% 25% 42% 0% 100% 3% 75% 14% 54% 75% 50% 61% 62% 25% 32% 16% 0% 57
Slide 58: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary - Elec
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary - Elec 100% 9% 15% 3% 75% 25% 50% 71% 81% 61% 56% 25% 16% 0% 3% 100% 11% 21% 75% 4% 27% 50% 65% 75% 61% 25% 47% 17% 0% 3% 100% 7% 5% 2% 75% 19% 68% 50% 87% 61% 58% 25% 21% 0% 5% 58
Slide 59: Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary - Mol
Resulting stock of heating appliances – Tertiary - Mol 100% 5% 3% 2% 75% 10% 23% 48% 50% 69% 64% 61% 25% 43% 0% 100% 5% 3% 75% 2% 13% 5% 37% 50% 69% 71% 61% 25% 52% 0% 100% 2% 2% 75% 2% 9% 40% 66% 50% 61% 66% 25% 45% 25% 0% 59
Slide 60: Closing remarks
Closing remarks fluxys® —@ria
Slide 61: Next steps & call for evidence
Input Next steps & call for evidence Welcomed • Reminder next steps 2025 March April May June July August September October November December Public consultation FOD & FPB opinion 13/03 AM 17/04 AM 03/06 AM 08/07 AM Kickoff Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Buildings & transport Minister’s Industry d
Slide 62: Merci/dankuwel!
Merci/dankuwel! fluxys® —@ria