Market update
Silje Ingeberg Nygaard
Director Market Intelligence
4 March 2026
Middle East conflict
Share of trade: Urea exports through Strait of HormuzMt urea (bubbles: % share of world trade)
33%
31%
34%
25
20
15
10
5
40%
1/3 of global urea (excluding Oman
and Egypt)
~20% of global LNG
~18% of DAP/MAP
~45% of global sulfur
~22% of global ammonia
30%
20%
10%
0 0%
2022 2023 2024
Bahrain IranQatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Share of total trade
Urea and natural gas prices - unfolding as we speak
EU natural gas price
April futures contract, EUR/MWh
Per 9 a.m. 4/3-26
55.3 EUR/MWh =
19 USD/MMBtu
Food prices down slightly in January, cereals stable
3
Urea (granular) fob Arab Gulf(excluding US)
USD/tonne
2026
2025
2024
500
450
400
350
300
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India has so far this season, Apr-Jan, imported 4 million tons more urea than previous season, at 8.9 million tons
Monthly production (kt) Monthly sales (kt)
23/24
24/25
25/26
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Imports, accumulated (kt) Change in stocks (kt)
10,000
5,000
0
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
How much will India import in 2026?
India tenders: purchased vs. requested volumes
2.1
2.0
0.4
1.3
1.0
1.6
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.2
1.5 1.5 1.5
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
2.5
1.5
1.5
Jan 2025
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-
26
Feb
Urea export from China - almost 5 million tons in 2025
2023 2024 2025
Product code: 31021000
Chinese urea domestic supply down 8% through December
Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance China
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.1
4.6
4.1
3.6
40
Million tons
33.4
35.4
33.3
-8%
30.6
0.1
4.8
Million tons
25/26
24/25
23/24
22/23
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Production
Export
Domestic
Domestic
Export
Production
0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: CFMW, covering almost 100% of production
Jul-Dec 24/25 Jul-Dec 25/26
DAP fob Morocco (MAP=dotted lines)
USD/tonne
2025
2026
2024
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Average of publications
Chinese P exports up in 2025 despite stricter controls,
mainly due to the "Other-NP" loophole
Million tons P2O5
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
DAP MAP TSP Other NPSource: IFA, Chinese customs. ( Assuming 35% P2O5in "Other NP", included from 2009)
MOP granular fob Vancouver
USD/tonne
2026
2025
2024
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Supporting material13
Sulphur fob Arab Gulf
USD/tonne
2026
2025
2024
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14
Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco (proxy calculation)
USD/tonne
2025
2024
2026
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Average of publications, DAP fob Morocco - (1.43*Rock fob Morocco + 0.46*S fob Arab Gulf + 0.23*(NH3 fob Caribbean + 40))