Yara International : Market update at Arctic Securities - March 2026

About this update from Yara International Asa

‌Market update Silje Ingeberg Nygaard Director Market Intelligence 4 March 2026 ‌Middle East conflict Share of trade: Urea exports through Strait of Hormuz Mt urea (bubbles: % share of world trade) 33% 31% 34% 25 20 15 10 5 40% 1/3 of global urea (excluding Oman and Egypt) ~20% of global LNG ~18% of DAP/MAP ~45% of global sulfur ~22% of global ammonia 30% 20% 10% 0 0% 2022 2023 2024 Bahrain Iran Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Share of total trade ‌Urea and natural gas prices - unfolding as we speak EU natural gas price April futures contract, EUR/MWh Per 9 a.m. 4/3-26 55.3 EUR/MWh = 19 USD/MMBtu ‌Food prices down slightly in January, cereals stable 3 ‌Urea (granular) fob Arab Gulf(excluding US) USD/tonne 2026 2025 2024 500 450 400 350 300 250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ‌India has so far this season, Apr-Jan, imported 4 million tons more urea than previous season, at 8.9 million tons Monthly production (kt) Monthly sales (kt) 23/24 24/25 25/26 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Imports, accumulated (kt) Change in stocks (kt) 10,000 5,000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar ‌How much will India import in 2026? India tenders: purchased vs. requested volumes 2.1 2.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 Purchases Requested 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 Jan 2025 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan- 26 Feb ‌Urea export from China - almost 5 million tons in 2025 2023 2024 2025 6000 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Product code: 31021000 ‌Chinese urea domestic supply down 8% through December Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance China 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 40 Million tons 33.4 35.4 33.3 -8% 30.6 0.1 4.8 Million tons 25/26 24/25 23/24 22/23 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Production Export Domestic Domestic Export Production 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: CFMW, covering almost 100% of production Jul-Dec 24/25 Jul-Dec 25/26 ‌DAP fob Morocco (MAP=dotted lines) USD/tonne 2025 2026 2024 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications ‌Chinese P exports up in 2025 despite stricter controls, mainly due to the "Other-NP" loophole Million tons P 2 O 5 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 DAP MAP TSP Other NP Source: IFA, Chinese customs. ( Assuming 35% P 2 O 5 in "Other NP", included from 2009) ‌MOP granular fob Vancouver USD/tonne 2026 2025 2024 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ‌Supporting material 13 ‌Sulphur fob Arab Gulf USD/tonne 2026 2025 2024 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14 ‌Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco (proxy calculation) USD/tonne 2025 2024 2026 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications, DAP fob Morocco - (1.43*Rock fob Morocco + 0.46*S fob Arab Gulf + 0.23*(NH3 fob Caribbean + 40))

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