2025-04-24
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Monthly business survey - April 2025
Business confidence stabilises in April
- Diverging sector-specific trends lie behind the stabilisation of the business confidence indicator.
- The confidence of business leaders rose in the manufacturing industry but fell further in the building industry and in business-related services. The business climate also worsened in the trade sector after two consecutive months of recovery.
- The capacity utilisation rate in the manufacturing industry increased for the fourth consecutive quarter.
The business climate in the manufacturing industry has faltered since the end of 2024, with optimism falling and rising in turn but overall displaying a slight upward trend. This month's uptick is mainly due to a significantly more favourable assessment of total order books combined with a sharp upward revision of the outlook for overall market demand.
In the business-related services sector, the confidence indicator fell for the third month in a row, albeit to a lesser extent than last month. This drop was underpinned by noticeably worse assessments by businesses of their current and future activity levels. However, in stark contrast to last month, expectations for overall market demand improved.
Business confidence in the building industry continued to weaken, slipping for the fourth consecutive month. Aside from demand expectations, which remained stable, all components contributed to the drop in the indicator.
After two consecutive months of improvement, the business confidence indicator fell markedly in the trade sector. Both demand expectations and forecasts of orders to suppliers fell further. Employment expectations, which had been revised sharply upwards last month, deteriorated once again.
The overall synthetic curve, which reflects the underlying economic trend, continues to point slightly downwards.
The results of the quarterly manufacturing capacity survey indicate a rise in the capacity utilisation rate. The seasonally adjusted rate thus stood at 76.0% in April, up from 75.0% in January.
Business survey indicators
Gross synthetic curve | Smoothed synthetic | ||||||
curve1 | |||||||
March | April | Variation in | Variation in | ||||
2025 | 2025 | points | Points | ||||
Manufacturing industry | -18.0 | -16.1 | 1.9 | -0.2 | |||
Business-related services | -7.6 | -9.3 | -1.7 | -0.6 | |||
Building industry | -10.1 | -13.1 | -3.0 | 0.5 | |||
Trade | -14.3 | -17.0 | -2.7 | -1.3 | |||
Overall synthetic curve | -15.1 | -14.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 |
1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the sectors. This implies that the overall smoothed indicator reflects recent developments more closely than the smoothed indicators per sector.
Source: NBB.
Communication | 14 Boulevard de Berlaimont | + 32 2 221 46 28 | Company number |
National Bank of Belgium | 1000 Brussels | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE |
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2
APRIL 2025
OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE
NCS
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
40 | |||||
30 | |||||
20 | |||||
10 | |||||
0 | |||||
-10 | |||||
-20 | |||||
-30 | |||||
-40 NS975 | |||||
-50 | |||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES
40 | ||||||
30 | ||||||
20 | ||||||
10 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
-10 | ||||||
-20 | ||||||
-30 | ||||||
-40 | NS296 | |||||
-50 | ||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
BUILDING INDUSTRY
40 | ||||||
30 | ||||||
20 | ||||||
10 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
-10 | ||||||
-20 | ||||||
-30 | ||||||
-40 | NS707 | |||||
-50 | ||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Source: NBB
TRADE
40 | ||||||
30 | ||||||
20 | ||||||
10 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
-10 | ||||||
-20 | ||||||
-30 | ||||||
-40 | NS914 | |||||
-50 | ||||||
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Seasonally adjusted series
Communication | 14 Boulevard de Berlaimont | + 32 2 221 46 28 | Company number |
National Bank of Belgium | 1000 Brussels | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE |
3
SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
TABLE 1
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers | Adjusted series | Smoothed series | |||||||||
or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or | Since 1990 | 2025 | 2024 - 2025 | ||||||||
''lower than normal''(-). | |||||||||||
Min.¹ | Max.¹ | Avg.² | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | |
Overall synthetic curve | - 36.1 | + 10.1 | - 5.6 | - 13.6 | - 12.3 | - 15.1 | - 14.7 | - 13.0 | - 13.4 | - 13.6 | - 13.9 |
Manufacturing industry curve | - 36.0 | + 10.0 | - 9.0 | - 19.0 | - 15.6 | - 18.0 | - 16.1 | - 17.9 | - 18.1 | . | . |
Assessment of total order books | - 57.7 | + 10.0 | - 20.2 | - 38.7 | - 31.6 | - 35.7 | - 31.3 | - 37.9 | - 37.7 | . | . |
Assessment of level of stocks ³ | - 19.0 | + 25.0 | + 4.8 | + 7.1 | + 0.7 | + 7.4 | + 6.7 | + 5.7 | + 5.9 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 41.4 | + 11.5 | - 7.3 | - 8.1 | - 11.3 | - 9.7 | - 11.9 | - 8.2 | - 8.9 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 37.9 | + 15.0 | - 3.8 | - 22.1 | - 18.9 | - 19.3 | - 14.6 | - 18.4 | - 18.9 | . | . |
Business-related services curve | - 62.1 | + 34.0 | + 8.7 | + 2.0 | - 1.9 | - 7.6 | - 9.3 | + 1.9 | + 1.3 | . | . |
Assessment of activity | - 71.6 | + 20.0 | - 6.8 | - 22.4 | - 15.5 | - 21.3 | - 25.0 | - 20.1 | - 21.8 | . | . |
Activity expectations | - 70.7 | + 47.0 | + 20.5 | + 19.2 | + 4.3 | + 6.5 | + 2.2 | + 16.7 | + 16.2 | . | . |
Market demand expectations | - 59.9 | + 44.0 | + 12.2 | + 9.2 | + 5.6 | - 8.1 | - 5.1 | + 9.8 | + 9.5 | . | . |
Building industry curve | - 24.3 | + 24.3 | - 3.6 | - 4.5 | - 7.2 | - 10.1 | - 13.1 | - 6.3 | - 5.8 | . | . |
Trend in orders | - 30.1 | + 33.0 | - 0.4 | - 1.3 | - 2.0 | - 5.3 | - 11.6 | - 3.0 | - 2.4 | . | . |
Trend in equipment | - 38.4 | + 24.0 | + 1.4 | - 3.1 | - 0.4 | + 2.6 | - 0.4 | - 1.3 | - 1.3 | . | . |
Assessment of order books | - 50.0 | + 30.0 | - 14.3 | - 8.2 | - 14.8 | - 21.2 | - 23.0 | - 15.0 | - 14.1 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 26.0 | + 18.0 | - 1.2 | - 5.4 | - 11.4 | - 16.6 | - 17.4 | - 6.6 | - 6.3 | . | . |
Trade curve | - 41.8 | + 16.0 | - 4.3 | - 17.3 | - 15.5 | - 14.3 | - 17.0 | - 11.2 | - 12.5 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 33.0 | + 18.0 | + 0.6 | - 6.2 | - 12.0 | - 2.4 | - 6.8 | - 6.1 | - 6.0 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 56.0 | + 29.0 | - 4.0 | - 26.0 | - 17.9 | - 21.2 | - 23.4 | - 12.7 | - 15.5 | . | . |
Forecasts of orders to suppliers | - 40.1 | + 15.0 | - 9.4 | - 19.7 | - 16.5 | - 19.2 | - 20.8 | - 15.3 | - 16.0 | . | . |
- Minimum and maximum of each indicator (raw series) from January 1990 to the month under review.
- Average of each indicator (raw series) from January 1990 until end 2024.
- A positive or negative balance, as the case may be, means that stock levels, according to the assessment of business leaders, are higher or lower, respectively, than normal for the season. When calculating the synthetic curve, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.
Communication | 14 Boulevard de Berlaimont | +32 2 221 46 28 | Company number |
National Bank of Belgium | 1000 Brussels | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE |
4
OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS
TABLE 2
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or | Adjusted series | Smoothed series | |||||||||
''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or | Since 1990 | 2025 | 2024 - 2025 | ||||||||
''lower than normal''(-). | |||||||||||
Min.¹ | Max.¹ | Avg.² | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | |
Manufacturing industry | |||||||||||
Trend in production rate | - 53.0 | + 20.0 | - 1.3 | - 14.0 | - 6.5 | - 15.3 | - 11.0 | - 4.6 | - 6.4 | . | . |
Trend in domestic orders | - 48.7 | + 16.0 | - 7.8 | - 11.4 | - 11.8 | - 18.7 | - 17.2 | - 14.1 | - 13.9 | . | . |
Trend in export orders | - 56.3 | + 30.0 | - 3.0 | - 23.1 | - 6.4 | - 15.8 | - 5.1 | - 16.6 | - 18.0 | . | . |
Assessment of export order books | - 61.0 | + 10.0 | - 21.0 | - 48.4 | - 35.1 | - 41.3 | - 31.8 | - 44.6 | - 44.5 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 21.0 | + 34.3 | + 0.1 | - 7.4 | - 0.6 | + 1.0 | - 3.7 | - 2.2 | - 2.5 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 24.0 | + 54.2 | + 4.2 | + 6.0 | + 6.3 | + 7.5 | + 11.8 | + 4.0 | + 4.6 | . | . |
Production capacity | |||||||||||
(in percentage of the total production capacity) | 70.1 | 84.6 | 79.3 | 75.0 | - | - | 76.0 | ||||
Source: quarterly production capacity survey | |||||||||||
Business-related services | |||||||||||
Trend in activity | - 73.0 | + 37.0 | + 9.0 | - 0.8 | - 3.0 | - 17.9 | - 19.1 | - 2.0 | - 2.8 | . | . |
Trend in employment | - 49.4 | + 34.0 | + 6.2 | - 21.0 | - 11.2 | + 4.5 | - 4.3 | - 1.5 | - 5.3 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 35.0 | + 48.0 | + 17.7 | + 5.3 | + 9.3 | + 1.7 | - 0.1 | + 11.4 | + 10.0 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 15.8 | + 25.6 | + 2.5 | + 4.5 | + 4.7 | + 7.6 | + 1.0 | + 4.4 | + 4.4 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 13.0 | + 46.9 | + 8.5 | + 26.6 | + 24.6 | + 11.2 | + 10.9 | + 16.0 | + 15.9 | . | . |
Building industry | |||||||||||
Trend in activity | - 66.6 | + 34.7 | - 1.8 | + 1.0 | - 7.7 | - 9.8 | - 7.0 | - 2.2 | - 2.8 | . | . |
Trend in employment | - 27.0 | + 22.0 | - 3.0 | - 6.1 | - 3.9 | - 6.8 | - 4.3 | - 5.6 | - 5.7 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 31.0 | + 30.0 | + 1.0 | + 2.6 | + 0.2 | + 0.3 | - 5.2 | - 0.4 | + 0.3 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 27.1 | + 52.8 | - 1.5 | + 9.5 | + 4.6 | + 3.5 | + 3.5 | - 0.0 | + 1.8 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 20.6 | + 64.0 | + 4.3 | + 4.3 | + 4.9 | + 2.6 | + 5.8 | + 4.2 | + 4.7 | . | . |
Trade | |||||||||||
Trend in sales | - 50.1 | + 43.0 | - 2.0 | - 16.3 | - 11.0 | + 2.9 | - 15.7 | - 8.4 | - 9.9 | . | . |
Assessment of sales | - 50.0 | + 28.0 | - 9.0 | - 20.6 | - 19.5 | - 10.2 | - 12.7 | - 23.2 | - 21.6 | . | . |
Assessment of level of stocks ³ | - 17.1 | + 38.1 | + 11.3 | + 13.0 | + 1.8 | + 7.9 | - 5.8 | + 17.5 | + 15.3 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 23.5 | + 55.3 | + 0.7 | + 3.3 | + 11.2 | + 15.8 | + 11.7 | + 8.1 | + 8.1 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 14.2 | + 69.5 | + 8.0 | + 25.8 | + 34.5 | + 21.1 | + 15.3 | + 9.8 | + 12.7 | . | . |
- Minimum and maximum of each indicator (raw series) from January 1990 to the month under review.
- Average of each indicator (raw series) from January 1990 until end 2024.
- A positive or negative balance, as the case may be, means that stock levels, according to the assessment of business leaders, are higher or lower, respectively, than normal for the season.
Communication | 14 Boulevard de Berlaimont | +32 2 221 46 28 | Company number |
National Bank of Belgium | 1000 Brussels | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 Brussels RLE |