24-09-2024
ANALYST CALL H1'24 Results & Full-Year Outlook
In Memory of Paul De fauw
- EQUITY STORY
3
EQUITY STORY Pure-Play & Low-Risk German PV IPP with 450 MWP
- SIZE: Capacity of ca. 450 MWP and rising via opportunistic growth
- PREDICTABLE CASH FLOWS: Majority of revenues secured from Fixed feed-in tariffs
- RELIABILITY: Stable & transparent regulatory environment in Germany
- IMPROVING ASSET PERFORMANCE through Refurbishment & Repowering (PV Estate Parks)
- OPTIMISING ROUTE-TO-MARKET: FIT, on-site PPA, off-site PPA, Swaps, curtailment
- BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH: Among the lowest net debt/EBITDA ratios in industry
- CAPITALISATION BELOW BOOK VALUE: Valuation not reflecting underlying fundamentals
7C SOLARPARKEN IN BRIEF
4
SHARE PRICE Negative Inflection Point Related to Announcement on Guidance Cut
RECORD POWER PRICES (UKRAIN)
RISING 10Y BOND YIELD UP TO 2.7%
FORWARD PRICE ALMOST HALVED | NEGATIVE POWER PRICES |
LARGE CAPS M&A BY PRIVATE EQUITY
GUIDANCE CUT MAINLY DUE TO REUDEN SUD PROJECT
7C SOLARPARKEN IN BRIEF
5
- UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
6
IPP PORTFOLIO 445 MWP Yielding Annual EBITDA of EUR 55 Mio.
Capacity | Average IBN | Yield | Production | Capture Price | Power Sales | EBITDA | LOCATION OF GERMAN PARKS > 2 MWP | |
MWP | Year | KWH/KWP | GWH | EUR/MWH | EUR Mio | EUR Mio | ||
Germany | 386 | 2013 | 987 | 381 | 155 | 59 | 52 | |
Rooftop | 91 | 2010 | 867 | 79 | 210 | 17 | 15 | |
Freefield | 289 | 2015 | 1.000 | 289 | 143 | 41 | 36 | |
Wind | 6 | 2016 | 2.182 | 13 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
Belgium | 59 | 2021 | 879 | 52 | 90 | 5 | 4 |
Green Certificates Fixed Rate | 5 | 2011 | 847 | 4 | 408 | 2 | 2 |
Green Certificates Banding Factor | 21 | 2020 | 895 | 19 | 85 | 2 | 1 |
Free Market PPA | 33 | 2023 | 873 | 29 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
GROUP | 445 | 2014 | 972 | 433 | 147 | 64 | 55 |
(*) Capture Price includes assumed Solar PV & Wind Market Price | 48 | EUR/MWh |
▪ ~ 250 different installations
▪ Average year of commissioning: 2014 (weighted capacity)
- (*) Average capture price (based on PV price assumption EUR 50/MWH): EUR 147/MWh
- Germany: Feed-in Tariffs are state-guaranteed and fixed for 20 years + year of commissioning
- Belgium: mainly on-site PPA's (plus capital subsidy or green certificates for older parks)
- Rooftop and land lease contracts usually running 20 years + option for at least 5 years extension
- PV Estate 199 ha includes land ownership on 98 MWP PV assets (increase of 15 ha in 2023)
- The 20MWP project "Reuden Süd" (Bitterfeld Rooftop) now classified as discontinued installation in the absence of economic viability.
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
7
PV MARKET PRICE Forward Curve Sets PV Value At ~ EUR 48/MWh (Q3'24)
EVOLUTION OF LONG-TERMFORWARD AND PV PPA PRICE (EUR/MWH) | LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY LCOE FOR PV GERMANY IN EUR/MWH | |
200 | 400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
180 | 372 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
160 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
140 | 300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
120 | 253 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
250 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 148 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
103 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 100 | 90 | 64 | 74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mrt/20 | mei/20 | jul/20 | sep/20 nov/20 jan/21 mrt/21 | mei/21 jul/21 sep/21 nov/21 jan/22 mrt/22 mei/22 jul/22 sep/22 nov/22 | jan/23 | mrt/23 | mei/23 | jul/23 sep/23 nov/23 | jan/24 mrt/24 | mei/24 | jul/24 | sep/24 | |||||||||||||||||
jan/20 | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PPA PV 10Y | Profile difference base versus PV | Balancing cost | GoO | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |||||||||||
OWN CALCULATIONS | OWN CALCULATIONS |
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
8
BREAKDOWN BY YEAR OF COMMISSIONING Long-TermCash Flow Potential
PARKS WITH HIGH EBITDA
PARKS WITH POWER PRICE OPTION VALUE
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
9
BREAKDOWN BY REMUNERATION Strongly Secured Against Negative Prices
CLASSIFICATION | MWP | EUR/MWH | EUR MIO (*) | EXPOSURE TO NEGATIVE PRICES | MANAGEMENT ACTION |
Fixed FIT (<2017) | 181 | 255 | 45 | No, fixed tariff | |
6 Hours Rule (<2023) | 127 | Conclude annual swaps | |||
_ PV Market Value | 48 | 6 | Negative prices depress the monthly PV market value | ||
_ Market Premium | 28 | 3 | No premium during 6 consecutive negative hours | ||
4 -> 1 Hours Rule (<2024) | 70 | Conclude annual swaps | |||
_ PV Market Value | 48 | 3 | Negative prices depress the monthly PV market value | ||
_ Market Premium | 7 | 0 No premium during negative hours (as from 2025 from the first hour) | |||
Rooftops < 500 KWP under 1-4-6 Hours Rule | 8 | 110 | 1 | No, excluded from the rule | |
Green certificates Belgium | 5 | 408 | 2 | No, fixed certificate | |
Banding factor Belgium | 21 | 85 | 2 | Backed by PPA clients, certificates go up when prices sink | |
Spot price Belgium | 33 | 48 | 2 | Full exposure to negative price | Sale on intraday + Curtailment |
GROUP | 445 | 892 | 64 |
(*) Slide 7: IPP Revenues for 445 MWP fully operational under normal weather conditions
REVENUES OF EUR 14 MIO OUT OF EUR 64 MIO ARE SUBJECT TO SCHEMES APPLYING TO NEGATIVE POWER PRICES, BUT ONLY EUR 5 MIO OF DIRECT EXPOSURE VIA MARKET PREMIUM AND SPOT PRICE
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
10
| Attention: This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here. |