26-11-2024
ANALYST CALL 9M'24 Results & Full-Year Outlook
- EQUITY STORY
3
EQUITY STORY Pure-Play & Low-Risk German PV IPP with 468 MWP
- SIZE: Capacity of 468 MWP and rising via opportunistic growth
- PREDICTABLE CASH FLOWS: Majority of revenues secured from Fixed feed-in tariffs
- RELIABILITY: Stable & transparent regulatory environment in Germany
- IMPROVING ASSET PERFORMANCE through Refurbishment & Repowering (PV Estate Parks)
- OPTIMISING ROUTE-TO-MARKET: FIT, on-site PPA, off-site PPA, Swaps, curtailment
- BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH: Among the lowest net debt/EBITDA ratios in industry
- CAPITALISATION BELOW BOOK VALUE: Valuation not reflecting underlying fundamentals
7C SOLARPARKEN IN BRIEF
4
SHARE PRICE Negative Inflection Point Related to Announcement on Guidance Cut
RECORD POWER PRICES (UKRAIN)
RISING 10Y BOND YIELD UP TO 2.7%
FORWARD PRICE ALMOST HALVED | NEGATIVE POWER PRICES |
LARGE CAPS M&A BY PRIVATE EQUITY
GUIDANCE CUT
7C SOLARPARKEN IN BRIEF
5
- UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
6
IPP PORTFOLIO 468 MWP Yielding Annual EBITDA of EUR > 55 Mio.
Capacity | ~IBN | Yield | Production | Capture (*) | Power Sales | EBITDA | |
MWP | Year | KWH/KWP | GWH | EUR/MWH | EUR Mio | EUR Mio | |
Germany | 409 | 2.014 | 983 | 402 | 148 | 59 | 52 |
Rooftop | 91 | 2.010 | 851 | 78 | 209 | 16 | 14 |
Freefield | 312 | 2.015 | 997 | 311 | 135 | 42 | 36 |
Wind | 6 | 2.016 | 2.276 | 13 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
Belgium | 59 | 2.021 | 780 | 46 | 98 | 5 | 4 |
Green Certificates Fixed Rate | 5 | 2.011 | 864 | 4 | 408 | 2 | 2 |
Green Certificates Banding Factor | 21 | 2.020 | 881 | 19 | 91 | 2 | 1 |
Free Market PPA | 33 | 2.023 | 701 | 23 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
GROUP | 468 | 2.015 | 957 | 448 | 143 | 64 | 55 |
Grid-connected | 441 | 2.015 | 958 | 423 | 148 | 63 | 55 |
Not Grid-connected | 27 | 2.024 | 949 | 25 | 48 | 1 | 1 |
(*) Capture Price includes "Minimum" assumed Solar PV & Wind Market Price | 48 | EUR/MWh |
- Recently started projects in construction (23 MWP) have been added to the portfolio: Rötz V, Pirk, Premenreuth and Kohlberg
- Average year of commissioning: 2015 (weighted capacity)
- (*) Average capture price (based on PV price assumption EUR 48/MWH): EUR 143/MWh
- Germany: Feed-in Tariffs are state-guaranteed and fixed for 20 years + year of commissioning
- Belgium: mainly on-site PPA's (plus capital subsidy or green certificates for older parks)
- Rooftop and land lease contracts usually running 20 years + option for at least 5 years extension
- PV Estate 199 ha includes land ownership on 98 MWP PV assets
LOCATION OF GERMAN PARKS > 2 MWP
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
7
BREAKDOWN BY YEAR OF COMMISSIONING Long-TermCash Flow Potential
PARKS WITH HIGH EBITDA
PARKS WITH POWER PRICE OPTION VALUE BUT ALSO EXPOSURE TO NEGATIVE PRICES
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
8
CLASSIFICATION BY EEG Exposure to Negative Prices is Managed
§51 EEG | MWP | EUR MIO | EUR/MWH | Exposure to Negative Prices | Management Action | ||
Fixed FIT (<2017) | 198 | 46 | 234 | No | |||
6-Hours Rule | EEG 2017 | 110 | 7 | 66 | |||
_ PV Market Value | 5 | 48 | Negative Prices depress the monthly PV Market Value | ||||
_ PV Market Premium | 2 | 18 | No premium during 6 consecutive negative hours | Conclude Swaps | |||
4-Hours Rule | EEG 2021 | 57 | 3 | 52 | |||
_ PV Market Value | 3 | 48 | Negative Prices depress the monthly PV Market Value | ||||
_ PV Market Premium | 0 | 4 | No premium during 4 consecutive negative hours | Conclude Swaps | |||
1-Hour Rule | EEG 2023 | 37 | 2 | 54 | |||
_ PV Market Value | 2 | 48 | Negative Prices depress the monthly PV Market Value | ||||
_ PV Market Premium | 0 | 6 | No premium during negative hours | Conclude Swaps | |||
Rooftops < 500 KWP excluded | 6 | 0 | 77 | No, excluded from the rule | |||
Green Certificates Belgium | 5 | 2 | 315 | No | |||
Own-consumption PPA Belgium | 26 | 2 | 65 | No | |||
Spot Price Belgium | 28 | 1 | 48 | Full Exposure | Curtailment & Intra-Day Sale | ||
GROUP | 468 | 64 | |||||
Underlying Direct Exposure "Negative | P | 232 | 4 | ||||
_ Germany | 204 | 3 | |||||
_ Belgium | 28 | 1 |
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
9
NEW PARKS (23 MWP) IN CONSTRUCTION Q1'25 Connection in Perspective
PIRK, Bavaria
3,3 MWP
FIT FFAV ~ EUR 50/MWH
DMEGC Panels
RÖTZ V, Bavaria
6,6 MWP
FIT ~ EUR 50/MWH SunPro Power Panels
KOHLBERG, Bavaria
6,8 MWP
FIT ~ EUR 50/MWH
DMEGC Panels
PREMENREUTH, Bavaria
6,4 MWP
FIT ~ EUR 50/MWH SunPro Power Panels
UPDATE IPP PORTFOLIO
10
| Attention: This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here. |