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Investing in Developers – Hacking the Lassonde?

Join the CEOs of four development-stage gold companies advancing their respective projects from development through permitting and towards construction. These projects sit in ‘the middle stage’ of the Lassonde Curve. Discover what the de-risking process looks like for gold mines in various jurisdictions; the process and timeline of taking a development project from first discovery to a construction decision; and what risks and opportunities exist at the development stage for investors.

Wed, October 16, 2024 at 12:00 PMendedReplay
Investing in Developers – Hacking the Lassonde?
Company
6ix, Mining Americas Inc. (TSX:MAI), Newcore Gold Ltd. (TSXV:NCAU), Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:HYMC), First Mining Gold Corp. (TSX:FF)
Date
Wed, Oct 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ET
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Watch the replay on this page · 1 h

On 6ix: 6ix.com/event/investing-in-developers-hacking-the-lassonde

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Automated transcript · Written by software from the replay's audio. It can mishear names and figures; the replay is the record.

0:08 Hello everyone and thank you for tuning in for today's discussion. The topic is investing in developers and we're joined by Dan Wilton, CEO of First Mining, Diane Garrett, President and CEO of Highcroft Mining, Doug Ramshaw, President of Mineral Alamos, and Luke Alexander, President and CEO of Nucor Gold. Now this event is being recorded and will be available for review and afterwards. Also If you have any questions, please feel free to submit them in the chat. But we do have a full agenda today, so any company-specific questions will be passed on to the respected companies if you do have any.

0:40 That said, welcome everyone. Now when we talk about companies in the development stage, it's a pretty broad term, right? So what are the key characteristics that distinguish a developer ready for rapid growth from 1 still facing a significant hurdle or hurdles? How can investors recognize when a developer is on the verge of taking off? Now, I think everyone has their own interesting projects. So I'm gonna have everyone address this question starting with Dan. Well, thanks and thanks everyone for joining us today. I mean, it's an interesting question. You know, the development process as we all know is a long 1 And it's continued to get longer. I've been financing mining companies for 30 plus years now.

1:30 And it used to be quite a bit reliably shorter that you could get a project from a deposit stage. And that's sort of how I characterize development. You know you've got a deposit. It's not just a few drill holes. You've got a resource. You've got, let's call it at least a PEA that says that this deposit is economic. And then you're moving it through all of the engineering and permitting works to kind of get it to

1:58 that construction decision and ultimately into construction, which I think marks kind of the next stage of development of companies. So, you know, I think every project's unique. Certainly for our Springpole project in Ontario, you know, We've been going through environmental assessment since 2018. It is a well-drilled out, well-understood resource. We've got it at pre-Feasibility and about 90% done a Feasibility study on it. We understand that there is an economic project there. But each of those catalysts is different. For SpringPool, a lot of it is because the project sits under the or the deposit sits under the Bay of a Lake. That's always been a real concern of investors.

2:48 Are you going to get that permit? That might be very, very different than a project in Mexico or a project in Nevada or a project in Ghana. So yeah, I think, you know, it's I think you really have to be focused on specific catalysts for that project. What are the real risks of that project? And then

3:10 how is the management team advancing those along to manage or mitigate those risks? And Doug, perhaps share your perspective. I think the easiest way for an investor to look at whether a company is in the development phase is, is this a company boring or not? If it's boring, it's probably a developer. Because you've come off the discovery or you've picked up an asset and as Stan said, you've shaped the preliminary economics around said project.

3:47 But then there's this kind of almost orphan period, which is actually can be a can be a great time to position into a developer. But the news is typically not as exciting as those companies trying to make some brand new discovery. Right. So it is traditionally a boring phase. You tend, like I've always said, especially if you're a multi-asset producer, you only live that boring phase once. So try to live it in an area where permitting timelines are relatively rapid to work through that orphan period as quickly as possible. But no, I mean, as an investor, you'll want to be looking at the initial scoping of said deposit in preliminary economic studies, what the company intends to do in terms of development.

4:42 Is this a project where the company has its own path to self-determination?

4:48 For me, there are a lot of developers, there's 2 kinds of classes of developers. There are developers that have a path to take that all the way through the Lassonde curve and into production. And then there's developers, it can often happen, they get trapped in that Lassonde curve. They've got very big capex numbers that are being presented in their economic studies, very hard to ignite investor interest. So there can be a bit of a capex chasm there. And then you need to assess, okay, is that an asset, whether the company can take it through or someone else is going to be interested in it. But yeah, overall, developers can appear boring. I think that there's tremendous value that actually gets presented in that pre-production phase.

5:35 But I think 1 wants to be guarded as to how long you can be caught almost in a trial of patience, a trial of resolve, especially, I think it's reasonable to say that in 2022, 2023, there was no real opportunity cost of being kind of almost trapped in the development phase of a company. But when gold took off, there was a genuine opportunity cost of sticking with a development story and the value proposition it presents as we saw the existing gold producers obviously benefit from a rising gold price. And Diane? Well, I love Doug's comment about if it's boring, you probably are a developer.

6:22 That is so true. It is a boring time, but it's also one of the most critical and most important times as well. As a former fund manager, we would typically sell certain stocks as they entered into the development stage because as you say, the news flow is fairly boring, it's important work, but that's also where,

6:46 if things are gonna go wrong, if you're gonna have capital cost overruns, if you're going to have delays in permitting, things like that can come up. And so we would tend to often put our money into producers or things that were less risky and then come back in later. If you have the ability and flexibility to park some money because people will sell down during that phase often, but not a given that they will do that, then it is a good time to secure a position because that's usually at the low point. And then once you start de-risking it through the final cost estimates and getting into construction and getting your permitting done and reaching those milestones, then you have a very quick trajectory upward. So you don't really want to miss that. And again, it's the classic Lassonde curve that we've seen.

7:35 I think the things to pay a lot of attention to is, you know, the engineering is very important. That's something that I think is in control of the company because we set our technical team in the engineering firms offices, because we are gonna live with this project. And engineering firms, as wonderful as they are, they outsource all the different components, hydrology or geotechnical or whatever it may be. So they'll outsource different components and you want somebody that's going to live with this project, managing that whole project process to make sure that nothing gets dropped. Things that are outside your control, obviously you're permitting. And I think that's where an investor needs to pay close attention to the jurisdiction that you're operating in and see what's happening from a government standpoint from, you know, are they, you know, is the new regime, the new administration favorable to mining or not? And could that, you know, typically permitting will get there, it's just the length of time it takes.

8:35 So again, the development phase spans a lot of different things, as you mentioned, Kyle, at the very beginning, but there's some huge opportunities to get in low at a good price and also reap the upside benefits. Luke just for the individuals that are coming in a little later, the question is what characteristics distinguish a developer ready for rapid growth from 1 still facing significant hurdles? Yeah, I think one of the biggest things and it's been touched on is, you know, timeline. I mean, when you're valuing a company and you're looking at the NPV of a project and you're looking at the model and the cash flow, what's the timeline to actually get the project into production?

9:21 So, you start at a PEA or as Doug highlighted, a scoping stage, then a PEA stage, PFS stage, FS stage. So, to go from scoping to production, how long is that going to take? From PEA to production, from PFS to production, from FS to production. And when you start putting those timelines in front of the model, you know, what's the impact on the NPV, what's the impact on the IRR and the return for investors? Because as you start to move into that development stage, you're now being priced as a producing company, you're just being discounted back to what investors perceive as the timeline to ultimately get to production.

10:08 Whereas producing companies are being, you know, valued off of next quarter's production and growth and what the production profile of the project is. As you move to that development stage, you start to get more and more valued as a producer

10:25 and timeline is the most critical element to the impact on valuation. If it's going to take you years to go from a PFS to pouring first gold, well, now you have to put 5 years and whatever the capex is and permitting costs in front of that model.

10:49 If it's only going to take you 2 years, then that'll have a much less of an impact in terms of the return to investors. So timeline, I think, is the most critical element. And then back to some of the comments we've already heard is, what are the key things from a timeline perspective? Well, permitting, how big is the project? What infrastructure? How long is it going to take to ultimately build the project?

11:15 And then the market element is the other critical factor in terms of availability of capital. And is the, is it the right time in the market to be raising capital to build a project? So I think the critical element to look at is timeline. Yeah, exactly. You said a lot of great things you all did. I'll stay with you, Luke, here, because the timeline and how much money, right? How do you see the capital needs of developers evolving as they move toward production? And what should investors look for in terms of funding strategies and risk mitigation during this critical phase? Yeah, I think it's been touched on that the last few years have been difficult for developers to raise capital. And I think a big part of the reason for that is there's been a huge amount of uncertainty in the mining sector, as well as all sectors globally.

12:04 I mean, mining sector has been hugely impacted by inflation and, you know, feasibility studies that were produced in 2020 and 2021, all of a sudden became very outdated a year or 2 later because there had been such huge inflation in the sector. One of the things I think is really encouraging at the moment is we're starting to see costs flatten and in some cases actually costs are coming down. So investors can now rely a lot more on the studies that are being produced today than the ones that were even being produced 2 or 3 years ago. So with that confidence ultimately comes capital. When investors have confidence in the numbers that are being produced, then they're comfortable investing in those projects. So I'm really encouraged by what we're seeing for developers today,

12:58 but 2 years ago, I wouldn't have said the same thing, given the uncertainty of where we were from an inflation perspective. So a lot of head nodding there in agreement. We'll go to Diane for further commentary.

13:14 Oh, Diane, we have time. Oh, it's on mute there, Diane. Thank you. Oh, there we go. Will we ever learn that? So good points that Luke made. I mean, you know, we are still seeing some inflationary pricing over the last few years, But we are seeing consumables, you know, reages, things like that starting to come down and normalize. So that's a good thing for us. The market in general is not still healthy. We're not seeing the generalist funds piling in, Although with gold and silver prices moving like they are, we're starting to get indications there is some money flowing into the sector, into the institutional hands. And also, you know, we're seeing a few of the generalists starting to put their toe in the water here. And when they come in, they come in very big and powerful, and there will be a lot of money flowing in, and it gets deployed very quickly. And so those are the type of things that I think we're on the cusp of very soon.

14:12 And that will allow companies to raise the capital they need to develop these projects. Because they will, that money will go into developers and those that are near term production first before before other names. So I think that's going to be a very positive sign In the meantime, though, when we go through a difficult market, as we've seen the last many years and all of us on this call have been through many bear markets and our industry and it's cyclical and we know, you know, this too shall pass, but you'll see sometimes single asset companies or junior companies reaching out and doing streams of royalties. I personally

14:49 disagree with that philosophy because it's it's a once you play that card you have played it like with our new high-grade silver Discovery and even with our large gold resource. We get you know inbound interest in doing streams of royalties. We would not do that now because we would be giving up the upside on the project. Once you lock that in, it's forever there. And by doing that, we've now taken away value that can go back to the equity shareholders. So we want to be very cautious about it. You know, to finance at all costs, including taking some of those measures and burdening your balance sheet, you know, sometimes the right answer is just to say, I'm going to wait until a better market. As long as your resources are in the ground, it's protected, it's not going anywhere, it's not disappearing, and then you can tap the market for the equity and save and preserve that value.

15:42 And, you know, the nice thing about Highcroft is we are permitted

15:46 for heap leach and milling, and we have a tremendous amount of infrastructure on site. So we are saving a lot of the years of the development cycle in order to, we talked about the timeline that's important and then how you fund it to survive through that timeline. So we're way ahead on the Lasson curve, so that's very beneficial. It's also beneficial if you're like Doug and Manera Alamos, because you've got some production and then you've got another asset going through permitting. So you've got, you kind of de-risk that timeline, if you will, for the new project by having your other operating project. Doug, why don't you go ahead and elaborate?

16:30 Yeah, sometimes timing is just unfortunate for a developer. We saw a couple of real headline big single asset developers, you know, once you start building You know, you really can't pull that back And if you get hit in the wrong part of the cycle, and it can be just gold price coming off when you're in production and numbers get thrown out. But we saw big CapEx overruns on big projects and that hurt shareholders. You know, There was a funding gap and it was only met by big dilution. So, I mean, for us, we specialize in low CapEx builds. And as a result, If we saw a 20 or 30% move in our CapEx numbers, it's $5 or $6 million.

17:22 It's annoying. Any overrun is annoying, but it doesn't create that major funding gap that comes at the price of investors. And likewise, we also focus on high IR projects because if you are going to borrow money, or you're not going to take money, you want quick payback on that, because that actually, you know, allows you, you don't have years and years of debt overhang, you know, when you can actually be deploying your cash flow into the growth of the company. And

17:52 I think one of the things about developers is they offer a really great offer. All the big gold producers today will want small gold producers. I mean, John McCluskey, who has done an absolutely remarkable job at Alamos Gold, but it's 25 years in the making. It started out as a 30,000 ounce gold producer.

18:14 The consolidation at the producer level has actually meant that there's, I mean, for developers, I think more and more companies are going to actually have to have a plan to build themselves because there are just less and less potential buyers of their assets. So there's that plan of self-determination that I think you have to look for in a company.

18:35 But I also think it's the exciting part of the market because out of a lot of gold developers now and over the last few years, 10 and 20 years on from now should be some of those new Alamos Golds that come out of that. And that represents a fantastic opportunity for growth on just about any metric that the large companies now had their heyday 25 years ago. You know, in many ways now, they are own their proxy, the big majors are proxies for the gold price. And in fact, even at spot gold, they're probably only providing a 10 to 15% free cash flow yield. It's one of the reasons we're not seeing generalists coming in because there's risks in mining. I'm sure today we will talk a lot about those risks in mining.

19:29 But that's not enough of a yield to justify those generalists in the act. Well, actually, I think that the smaller, you know, the intermediate producers and the developers actually offer metrics, which can be far more appealing in terms of the risk reward profile of companies. And so, yeah, I mean, from Monero, we mitigate a lot of it by, you know, we've got some initial production from our first mine. And so, you know, we're permitting on the second one, but there's something on the front end which helps. And in many ways, we've removed ourselves from that orphan part of the Lasonga, but we are still a developer at heart. Like our initial production at the front end, I call us a quasi producer. We really are a developer at heart. But the business plan is, you know, get some early cash flow.

20:25 It can support the development of the second one. And those 2 can support the development of the third one. And in time, you can start growing out a really nice foundation of a production base, most importantly, that has been kind of largely self-funded rather than at the expense of dilution, which, you know, a Barrick Gold, for example, over the last 28 years, I had this data as of February. So as of February, their market cap over 28 years was up 320% during a time where gold had gone up fivefold. But their share cap was, their share count was up 380%. Growth through share issuance does not help equity prices. And at that period, despite A55 fold increase in gold prices, their stock was off 40 percent over a 28 year period.

21:20 I think what all developers can offer, you know, so long as they've got the right teams in place and a de-risk their project is an opportunity to participate in in growth, organic growth as opposed to growth through M&A. That's a far more appealing metric or should be to investors. Thank you for that, Doug. Dan, do you have any further commentary on the discussion of capital funding? Yeah, I mean, before Doug dismisses the entire M&A market as something that I'd say, I've got 85 people listening to this, I'll guarantee you all 85 of them would love to see a big juicy premium paid by some producer and coming to take any one of the development projects that are represented on this call.

22:10 It's an important part of it, right? For all that we wish we had, many of us wish we had some of the opportunities certainly that Doug has with cash flow that helps minimize that dilution. You go back to the previous cycle and There were great companies like Remarco, which Diane would know extremely well, which were 500 to 700 million market cap companies that had investor support and investors provided that capital at reasonable dilution to the shareholders to go hit major milestones. I did a little analysis a couple of days ago just looking at the last cycle and a bunch of these large companies, large developers, single asset developers.

23:04 And, you know, it's a very, very different world than what it was in 2010 and 2011. I think, you know, the difference in development is a little bit, you know, it's really kind of driven by what the market cap is. But if you look at Eskina, for example, she's done an amazing job, moving forward a great project here in BC. And they've got about the same number of ounces that we have in first mining Gold and they've got 10 times the market cap. So it gives them the flexibility to be able to continue to de-risk in that kind of virtuous circle. That's been a challenge for all of us. And we all, the others on the panel here have discussed what's changed in the markets. Diane did a very good job of explaining that in terms of lack of generalist investors and the people who have supported these development companies historically, how there are fewer of them.

24:06 You know, I think a lot of those investors who are longtime supporters of mining development are already pretty much fully invested And they have been because they've been taking away a deep value opportunities. But that's the real opportunity in this sector right now. The reality is you've got, even though they're trading at poor free cash flow yields, for sure, You've got producers that are up 2 and 3 times. And yet, relative to other sectors, I think the gold mining sector is starting to look attractive on a fundamental value basis for sure. But if you believe that projects are going to get to construction decisions, and they have projects of value that have been demonstrated and de-risked through geologic and engineering work, and are advanced in a permitting process, The reality is you can buy advanced, advanced stage assets today at sub $10 an ounce.

25:09 And there have only been a couple of very narrow windows in the last 30 years where you've been able to do that with quality advanced stage projects. And so that's where, when we're talking about, you know, the real hacking of the Lassonde curve here, that's it in my mind. You know, how are you gonna get leverage on these things? The big projects have great leverage to Gold price. You know, all of our projects will show great leverage to gold price in part You know all the technical studies that were done You know, we did one last year and we used an $1,800 gold price that feels like an absolutely different world than we're in today You know a $2,600 gold for us You know by virtue of the size of our projects, every $100 in the Gold price is $250M of after-tax NPV.

26:00 Our market cap is about $100M right now. And our studies were done at 1600 and 1800 dollar gold. That's the kind of leverage that you're getting, not just the fundamental value leverage, but when you can buy that at less than 0.1 times NAV And if you believe it's not going to be 15 years to development, but 3 years to development as per Luke's very articulate description of the time value, which I think is a really important consideration. There are massive, massive returns to be made in this market looking at developers. Yeah. I might just add to that. I mean, the whole comment around M&A is a great one because That helps in a couple of ways. One is it's the producers in large caps signaling that there's a real valuation gap between where they're trading or the developers are. And it's classic, you're trading at 1.5 times the NPV of the project and you can go buy development assets for 0.2 to 0.5 times. All you're doing is capitalizing on that valuation gap. The other advantage, you know, from an M&A perspective is, you know, assuming it's a cash bid, And even if it's not a cash bid, if you're getting stock in a major, you can turn that into cash through selling your shares in the market because there's enough liquidity, so on and so forth. But that money that goes back into funds and goes back into retail investors'

27:33 accounts, inevitably often goes and looks for the next opportunity within the development stage. So M&A, you know, puts cash back into the system to then go and buy other projects, which inevitably then helps from a valuation perspective, because you need that money going into buying stocks to ultimately revalue them to more appropriate levels. So I think Dan's point from an M&A perspective helps on a number of different fronts. Yeah, for sure. Look, on that point, you know, we certainly saw we and our peers developing projects, large projects in Canada. Cisco got bought and, you know, cash deal, there was a billion dollars released within about a week of that if you just looked at the ARB.

28:22 And lo and behold, pretty much every developer was able to go out and raise 15 to $25 million and, you know, get ourselves set up for 2025. So that's that money, the funding point, it's a really good point that corporates need to be channeling more capital into the development of assets, one way or another, whether it's acquiring them, strategic investments, however that money, buying things and having that money recycle, all of that is a really, really important source of capital when we're still waiting for general market sentiment to come into the sector. And just remember, like you're talking about an opportunity to invest in these things before anyone else has really caught on to the idea that, you know, these are real, real potential, like 5 to 10x and you're not waiting on 1 drill hole to get you there, right? The value is already there. It's already been demonstrated. The value is there. I mean, even with Highcroft's large resource, I mean, we're essentially trading for cash and you're getting the whole asset and the resource for free. And it's a phrase I use and repeat often that Rick Rule says all the time. It's like you walk by a store and they have blue jeans at 50% off, and you may not need any more, but you can't pass up that deal, so you go in and you buy it. Yet here we are.

29:47 We're all trading it, like you say, Dan, less than $10 an ounce in the ground, which is ludicrous. But yet people are afraid to come in and buy. Like, what is that about? Like, why aren't people seeing this? And I think it's not just for investors, this is the time to get in and secure your position because we all know and we've seen in our 30 plus years of working in this business that when the market turns, it turns fast and you will miss that initial big run up. So now is the time to get in. But also for, I'm a big proponent of M&A. I think there needs to be consolidation in the industry. When you look at the big companies, where are they going to fill their pipeline of production? And we've seen country after country that is having challenges and issues from the government standpoint.

30:33 So, you know, North America is a premier place to be. And I think that you're gonna see companies, and we're already seeing some of it starting recently with M&A, of buying up these developer stage companies, because that's gonna be then feeding their pipeline if they don't have organic growth. And so, you know, it's I think everything is setting itself up well for something like that. There's a there's a lot of especially with the commodity prices where they're where they are and And we're still seeing the equities lagging the physical metal prices. So things are cheap. And I think that some of the bigger companies are going to become more active in the M&A space to be tying up some of these assets at these prices?

31:23 I think it helps that the, I think it was you, Diane, that was talking about inflation earlier. The fact that things have have steadied in terms of inflationary pressures on the sector is going is probably the bigger catalyst actually over gold price, they call these All these majors will stress test these things at lower gold prices anyway. But when you're buying a developer, you want, and you might still have a couple of years, you know, from what the CapEx sticker price is now to what it's actually going to be. And if you bought something in 2021, you had a rude awakening in 2023 with what that sticker price changed to. So the slowdown in inflationary pressures and even the reversing in certain parts of the costs on building is going to allow companies to have a little bit more confidence in what they're buying and take some of that risk rather than sitting back and saying, okay, developer, you fund this, you do this, you do this, all of which has a cost.

32:41 And you saw it again, you know, not that I'm, I feel like I'm Alamos Gold rather than Monero Alamos, but no, I am a very lowly Monero Alamos compared with mr. McCluskey's Alamos gold But you saw it with the absolute amazing timing of his buyer Maginot from Argonaut gold Typically when when a major buys anything the major falls, you know when we sold great bear, you know The bank has told us, you know, Kim Ross is gonna fall 10% There's gonna be a 10% settle on this deal. They nailed it. Because the market craves M&A and then a deal is announced, it's like, not that deal. No, no, no. It's something else, something else. And that's the reaction. So when Alamos Gold's up 6% on the Mugino deal, it was because it was an unbelievable good deal for Alamos gold and the timing was perfect.

33:33 It had effectively, it knew what it was acquiring at that point from the construction path that it was on, how much more was left to complete. And I think there was a nervousness for a couple of years there. So higher gold prices absolutely always fuels it. But I think this softening of inflationary pressures is going to help actually make executives, you know, line up to actually make deals. I still think you're gonna see, there's a chance you see mergers of equal growth amongst some of these companies as opposed to, and even amongst the developers. I think that there's a path with these valuations on the development side, where someone who's got the ambition to grow the next intermediate, I think as shareholders, there's more value actually, you know, seeing a path to growing yourself than being a tuck in for someone else.

34:37 And Argonauts, the example I always use is Argonaut Gold really was formed out of 2 acquisitions, Castle Gold and Pediment Gold. Totaled about 300 million in acquisitions. And I'm sure all those shareholders were both Castle Gold and Pediment Gold, and it was my management team, not me, but my management team that were Castle Gold, thought, great, we've got our liquidity event, we've got our exit strategy. Those 2 $300 million acquisitions formed Argonaut. Within 2 years, Argonaut was a billion-dollar company. As investors, you kind of ask, well, how much of that was us leaving money on the table? Great for the liquidity event, but maybe there's more value in trying to be one of the, you know, one of the future intermediates and it takes time, but that, and I think if you can build a path to get there, That's where there's a real value opportunity. That's where your free cash flow yield is going to look better than the majors and the intermediates as you've got that growth there. And to generalist, it's those kinds of things which are going to be exciting, you know, especially in a sector which is has got a history of being so cyclical.

35:48 You know, it's like, oh yeah, make hay while the sun shines. Well, you know, the big boys are gonna make a lot of hay right now. But a company coming through has an opportunity to have a path of value creation that will transcend any cyclical nature of the gold price. And as investors, I think we want to be looking at what that value proposition is relative to the opportunities elsewhere, which is why developers still, even though I think there was a bit of an opportunity cost in 2024, the reality is for these other companies to continue their growth. You know, if you're looking at the sector right now, it's like, I want to put this money into some gold producers you know a lot of that easy money has been made and really you have to understand that your The way you make money in these big producers now is for the gold price to go up I don't think you want to invest in things which is Determined on gold much. We'll just own gold then on that basis.

36:49 But what companies present that actually have a value proposition that doesn't rely on consecutively monthly prints of a higher gold price. That's an opportunity that I think developers at large offer that the producers don't. That we are our destiny is not actually defined on whether gold hits 3000 that year end or stabilizes because if it stabilizes at a certain level, the market will catch up to some really good quarters ahead from these majors. But thereafter, they're really going to rely on higher gold prices. Or if they do M&A, you know, it gets back to the old thing. It's like, you know, a deal's announced and they actually lose value initially on the M&A deal. So just some thoughts for consideration of why I think developers offer a better value proposition right now, regardless of where gold price goes. I think gold is, and in fact, if gold was to come off, and I don't think anyone here wants to say that gold could come off, but let's be realistic. If gold comes off, that shouldn't impact developers who are, as Dan said, you know, price studies at 16 and 1800.

38:00 We did ours in late 2022 at $1,600 gold. I'll stick with that because I think we want to stress test at lower prices, but you're already seeing majors starting to use levels that a couple of years ago if a junior came out with 1950 gold in a study, you'd laugh at it. Now, in Ross on the first PA of the Dixie project, use 1950, there is the general forward looking, it's always a trailing indicator, the consensus gold price outlook is plus $2,000 gold from the banks. And we know that that's the trailing indicator. You know, developers offer a tremendous upside on that. So long as timelines, you know, can be kept intact, so long as your jurisdictional risk allows timelines to stay intact.

38:53 I think that for me is the crux of why I like the development path. And more than anything, we need new mining companies. I mean, I hope Dan gets taken out. If that's what it was, it's like, it looks like it needs a holiday. You know, but, but the reality is, I think we need, you know, I'd love to see developers actually develop into new mining companies, because we sure as hell need them. I look back from when I was an analyst in the 1990s, there were a whole host of historic gold producers, the Echo Bays, the Hemlow Golds, they've all gone. They've all been assimilated as part of this M&A feast that happens in various cycles. I also think that that's a really great opportunity for a new new mining company to be built out of development assets.

39:43 And it comes with its own challenges. But I prefer those challenges over crossing my fingers as an exploration company that I don't drill dusters. I think one of the key points out of what Doug was highlighting at the start there is margin expansion. I mean, in 2024, for the first time in probably the last 4 or 5 years, we're seeing true margin expansion. So the gold price is rising at a faster pace than costs. And that really takes into account the impact of inflation. So we had gold prices rising at the same pace as inflation and costs over the last number of years.

40:31 And with the plateauing of costs and gold price rising, we're really seeing that margin expansion, which is a critical element for the producers to start to get comfortable buying projects, making investments and also for the generalist investor to no longer ignore the sector. And those quarters are starting to come through. Q2 there were a number of companies that beat expectations and that was really driven by that margin expansion, which I think we will see through the end of the year, which I think will continue to bring in the generalist investor, which is what really ultimately turns the sector from an investment perspective.

41:17 Yeah, it's funny about that on the margin expansion. 2 points I want to make. Those of us who, as developers, do live and die a little bit by pricing in our studies. We did a pre-feasibility study on our Springpole project early in 2021 at what I would call probably peak steel. And maybe peak steel was a little bit later, but the price of structural steel is off 40% from what we would have used 4 years ago. We did an update to that study and the price of diesel fuel was based on a $70 oil price coming out of COVID. And I was like, Oh, this is a crazy low, you know, oil price. The reality is for an open pit mine, if you're going to use diesel, it's a pretty big input to your costs. Well, price of oil 70 bucks right now. And, you know, doesn't really look short of geopolitical tension. It doesn't really look like the price of oil is going up, you know, knock on wood for a while, until we price our next study. But a lot of these costs are fundamentally lower, which is going to show through exactly to your point, Luke, on the margin expansion.

42:34 And the other point is, you know, let's look at what the average realized gold price was for Q2. It was maybe 2300 bucks, right? And that was a doubling of free cash flow for the industry basically from the prior quarter. More or less doubling. So you know, what happens when you put another $300 on that? And so that would have been showing from last year, let's say, you know, $2,000-ish, $2,100. We've got almost another doubling of the increase in Gold price from there. These margins are going to be fantastic over the course of the next couple of years, except for the fact that most large gold and copper producers, it's worse, most large gold producers are just dropping their cutoff grades to be able to pretend to show resource expansion in old tired assets.

43:33 And we're gonna keep seeing that too, but that game comes to an end, right? Or bodies generally have their limits, particularly or bodies owned by big companies that can and have drilled them out. There's the limits of the games they're able to play by showing, you know, maintaining resource. It's limiting resource decline rather than showing resource growth, I would say. Like that is a really, really important thing that is going to change after 2 or 3 or 4 years of dropping cutoff grades to show resource replacement. We are pretty quickly coming to a point where the tides going out and we are going to see you know which of those producers are wearing swimsuits.

44:27 Certainly, you guys are making my job easy I love the free flowing conversation a lot of great points. Diane are you still with us? Your camera's just off. Yes, I'm here. I had a little bit of a feed issue there, so I cut my camera, but I'm here. No worries at all. I think I'm gonna get into a company-specific question for each one of you right now as we are nearing the end of this panel discussion. I'll start with you Diane just in case we we lose you here but with the Highcroft mine having an enormous resource with still undefined boundaries, How do you balance ongoing significant exploration efforts with the technical studies that will bring you to the next phase? Yeah, the nice thing is that we don't really have to balance or choose one from drilling to development.

45:16 You know, we've got a massively large resource that we are advancing the technical studies on right now, which we're expecting to be out next year. But we also have this high grade discovery that we've made. And so That will do 1 of 2 things. We're doing it in parallel because it will either become the higher grade starter mine or an underground standalone mine or it will improve the first 5 years of the large. Resource mine plan too. So by drilling and advancing the technical studies, we're not cannibalizing either one of those activities. And the reality is when you have a project like ours, it's already large, but it's open in all directions and at depth still, we're gonna be drilling for the whole life of the mine.

46:04 So we're gonna always have this drill program going on. So we're very blessed in that way because drilling, especially during development phase or even now, certainly lends to some very exciting news flow. And so we have that ongoing while we're finishing up the, as we said earlier, the boring technical studies. So we don't have to prioritize one or the other. We've got a very strong cash position, so we're able to tackle both. And the drilling we're doing is just adding even more value to the mine plan that we're working on. To Monera, having a project that's seeking to scale up production alongside an exploration opportunity that's in the permitting process, what stage do you think gets the least love from markets and what opportunity does that present the investor?

46:56 Oh, you're on mute there, Doug. How many times? Mexico has had the least love. And this jurisdiction and timelines have a huge part to play. And This echoes lots of the early thoughts that Luke was presenting as well as Diane and Dan. For the last couple of years, Mexico, which has traditionally been a very good permitting environment, has struggled. But it's struggled for political reasons, which are changing. And we've already seen proxy stocks. I think Monera, Alamos and Discovery Silver are kind of the developer proxies for the permitting environment in Mexico.

47:48 And it had been bleak for a couple of years. And really, as a company, it's very hard to... I already said developers are boring. It's hard in its own right to create excitement. You can do it around economic studies, and our economic studies are fantastic, and so the markets always responded well to them. But that's a particular point in time. It's hard when you're battling something you can't battle, which is a period of jurisdictional disruption. Before, I've always said Mexico is going to revert to the mean, it's not going to turn into Venezuela. Over the last month, I think we're seeing that. I'm very relieved to say. So, as we see permitting advance again in Mexico and it doesn't need to be Moneras to get first, that's how dark the cloud has been. It could be Discovery Silver at first in line for us, or all are getting permit amendments for their giant Camino Rojo. We'll benefit from it. That's how bleak things have been. But we still expect Cerro de Oro to get permitted in the, hopefully, in the first half of next year, probably second or third in line of some of these kind of headline projects.

49:10 And then, and that is the excitement. Like the reality is the analysts can't, the free cashflow generation of a project like Cerro de Oro is absurd in a company of our size. It offers unbelievable talk in terms of current spot prices. It could produce close to our market cap in free cash flow in a year. So when you're looking at free cash flow, the yields of the majors, it's like where I want to appeal to generalists is like, Here's the free cash flow yield of the majors at SPOT. Here's the intermediates. Here's Monero. It's a given metric that should appeal on the value proposition.

49:57 But the analysts can't talk about those future cash flows until we've got permits. We're all lined up. We've got project finance package already in place that can be drawn down upon receipt of those permits. We just, you know, need to receive them or at least have people understand that Mexico jurisdictionally is not the sky is falling scenario that it's felt like for some. Not for us internally, but I understand the outward perspective looking at Mexico. And I'm happy to say that more positive news on Mexico has been flowing since kind of mid-September.

50:42 And it's starting to be reflected in prices of companies like ours and Discovery Silver as those dark clouds pass. They're kind of grey and clearing towards hopefully what blue sky in 2025. Thank you for that. Dan, Springpole, one of First Martin's flagship projects and an enormous resource. Is it at the tail end of permitting in Ontario? What have you learned from the experience and what do you wish investors knew about the permitting period? Well, tail end, we still have some important work to do. Let's be clear. We're targeting submitting our final environmental assessment at the end of the month, but there's still a lot of work that goes in after the EA, particularly, you know, work being done by the indigenous communities we're working with around the project. So, you know, we're tail-ending that we've been in this process since 2018, you know, and that's one of the things I think, we've learned a lot about it for us.

51:45 A lot of it was about making sure that we had the right team looking after that. And that was a big change for us bringing on Steve Lines and our permitting environment community team in 2020, late 2020, because they had basically taken the Greenstone Gold Project, which is kind of the latest big gold project to get permits in Ontario, all the way through. So having the right team, for sure, I think is critical. The importance of the relationships that come with that is critical. And I think what we're learning now, and hopefully our shareholders are going to see over the course of the next year, is the value ultimately of getting that stuff right, you know.

52:38 They've got some sort of specific perception issues to spring pull with respect to, you know, the deposit and the lake. But I think when we get to the point where we can see the results of what has been, you know, even prior to entering the EA process, you're talking about 10 years plus of work that's gone into advancing this project. While it is a challenge to permit big mines in Canada, and I think it's a challenge to permit big mines anywhere, but Canada and the US particularly, I think there is a value to getting to the other side of that process. And so that's where, you know, I think some shareholders are obviously skeptical about the ability to get to the other side of that, but we very much look forward to being one of those overnight successes, you know, 10 years in the making, which is, you know, a perfect description of the trial of resolve that Doug talked about earlier. So, yeah, that's, you know, I think exciting times ahead for us for sure.

53:54 Luke, the ENCHI project post-district scale exploration is underpinned by an updated PEA, getting some really positive attention this year. How do you balance the grassroots exploration versus moving the project toward PFS? And what is the journey for the project from here to construction at Enchi? At what stage do you reckon it becomes hard to ignore for potential acquirers? Yeah, I mean, so typically as you advance a project from scoping to PEA to PFS to FS, you know, that garners additional levels of interest and broader interest as you move along that path. The more you de-risk a project and to Dan's point, you have it fully construction ready, fully permitted, that's where you're going to have the maximum amount of interest because now a company needs to come along, take it out and build it. They don't have any of the other considerations from a permitting, from an engineering perspective, they can just build the project.

54:52 For us, we've obviously outlined a very robust project with the PEA that we put out earlier this year. At $2,350G, you're looking at an after-tax NPV of 632 million after-tax IRR of 92% so really phenomenal economics for the project. We currently today trade at roughly call it 50 million dollars US. So we trade at less than 0.1 times the NPV of the project. So my view is we trade at a fundamental discount to what the value of the project is. For us, moving it from a PEA to a PFS, we see as an opportunity to unlock a tremendous amount of value for shareholders.

55:42 And for us as management and board who own 18% of Nucor, we see that opportunity as a great opportunity. And when you look at companies and M&A, if you look at Osino and Orcorp, 2 African projects, those got taken out closer to 0.5 to 0.6 times. So from where we're trading today at less than 0.1 times as we de-risk it, that's the kind of multiple that we would expect. Layered on top of that, back to your other question is we do have district scale exploration. So we can pull that lever at any point in time. If you look at our current resource, it sits within 75 meters of the surface. That's the average vertical depth. We've still really just scratched the surface from an exploration perspective.

56:39 But my view and the board's view is the market still really isn't rewarding companies for exploration. We are continuing to grow the resource. We are doing some resource expansion drilling, but a big part of the focus is moving this towards a PFS because we see that opportunity to unlock the value from where we're trading today to where we should be trading on the back of producing a PFS. Excellent. So this is a great discussion today. We have 3 minutes, so I'm going to give you all an opportunity to keep it within 30 seconds to 1 minute. We are in the last quarter of 2024. What can people look forward to for your company for the last quarter and moving into 2025? I'll start with you, Dan. For first mining, submitting our final environmental assessment, we've got more at the end of this month.

57:31 We've got more drill results coming from our DuParcay project in Quebec as well. And moving into what I think is going to be a very, very catalyst-rich 2025. I've got Monero Alamos. Yeah, our new operation plan has seen considerably more mining and stacking of gold in Q3. That should lead to higher production numbers as we move forward in Q4 and throughout 2025. Thereafter, I think all eyes are on seeing the first sniffs of permit news in Mexico. I think Alamos Gold, again, I should be getting a fee or something, residuals from John McCluskey every time I mention him. They've indicated they expect a permit amendment on one of their projects by year end.

58:22 So all eyes on Mexico as a jurisdiction and an increasing gold production profile from Monero. Diane, just to let you know you're on mute, but if what can we look forward to for high crop for the last quarter and moving into 2025. You're still on mute if you're with us. If not, it's okay, I'll pass it Luke for now and I will circle back one more time, but Luke, what can we look forward to? We announced a 10,000-metre drill program in July. We put results out last week, which actually included one of our second-best holes ever drilled on the project. That first batch of results was about 800m of the 10,000m drill program.

59:08 Every month or 2, we'll get additional batches of drill results out as they come back. Then a lot of additional de-risking work, so met work, social environmental baseline studies that we're continuing to update, geotech, hydrological work, a lot of that work that goes into what's required for a PFS. So we'll get some of that released to the market as well. So drilling and then additional de-risking work on the project for the balance of this year and into 2025. Thank you. Diane, are you with us? If not, perfectly fine. You contributed beautifully to this conversation. It was a really great discussion everyone. Thank you so much for the people that stayed to the end. If you did come in a little late, this is being recorded and will be available on YouTube within the next couple of hours here, so look out for that. But thank you for the great discussion everyone.

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Speaker profile Dan Wilton

Dan Wilton

CEO & Director at First Mining Gold

Dan Wilton has more than 25 years of experience in M&A, corporate finance and principal investing in the mining sector, having executed as principal or advised on more than $10 billion of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and more than $1 billion of financings. Dan was previously a Partner at Pacific Road Capital Management, a mining-focused private equity investment firm with approximately $800 million under management. Prior to joining Pacific Road, Dan's previous roles included Managing Director and Head of the Global Mining and Metals Group at National Bank Financial Inc., Managing Director in Business Development at General Electric based in London, England, and other corporate finance and M&A roles at global financial institutions based in Toronto and New York. Dan is a Director of Providence Living, a residential care and assisted living provider based in Vancouver, BC, and serves on the Audit and Finance and Quality Committees. Dan served on the Board of Providence Health Care for 11 years, including acting as Vice Chair for 6 years and Chair of the Audit and Finance Committee during the financing and approval process for the New St. Paul's development. Dan holds a B.Comm (First Class Honours) from Queen's University and an MBA (with Distinction) from INSEAD in France.

Speaker profile Diane R. Garrett

Diane R. Garrett

President & CEO at Hycroft Mining

Dr. Garrett has over 25 years of senior executive management experience in the mining industry and an exceptional track record for developing projects and building companies. Dr. Garrett was President, CEO and Director of Romarco Minerals Inc. where she built and led the team that developed the multi-million ounce Haile Gold Mine in South Carolina from discovery through to final feasibility, permitting and construction. Romarco was subsequently acquired by OceanaGold in 2015 and Dr. Garrett was appointed to the Board of OceanaGold and a member of the Steering Committee for the Haile Gold Mine. Dr. Garrett was most recently the President and Chief Executive Officer of Nickel Creek Platinum Corp. Prior to her time at Romarco, Dr. Garrett held numerous senior positions in public mining companies including VP of Corporate Development at Dayton Mining Corporation and VP of Corporate Development at Beartooth Platinum Corporation. Early in her career, Dr. Garrett was the Senior Mining Analyst and Portfolio Manager in the precious metals sector with US Global Investors. Dr. Garrett is also a Director of NovaGold Resources Inc., a gold company listed on the NYSE American and Toronto Stock Exchange and a Director of Ausenco Pty, an Australia based global engineering firm. Dr. Garrett has also served as a director of TriStar Gold, Inc. and Revival Gold Inc. Dr. Garrett received her Ph.D. in Engineering and her Masters in Mineral Economics from the University of Texas at Austin.

Speaker profile Doug Ramshaw

Doug Ramshaw

President at Minera Alamos

Doug Ramshaw is a senior executive and corporate director with more than 25 years of experience in the mineral resource sector. His work has focused on mineral project evaluation, M&A and business development strategies supporting corporate growth. Mr. Ramshaw previously worked as a mining analyst for an independent brokerage firm in London, UK and has served in various executive capacities for a number of publicly listed junior resource companies. He sat on the board of Great Bear Resources from 2016 until its $1.8 billion takeover by Kinross Gold in February 2022. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Mining Geology from the Royal School of Mines.

Speaker profile Luke Alexander

Luke Alexander

President, CEO & Director at Newcore Gold

Luke Alexander brings over 20 years of natural resource sector experience, knowledge and contacts to Newcore Gold, particularly in West Africa. He has raised billions of dollars and structured deals for major mining companies while advising some of the world’s top institutional investment funds. Mr. Alexander began his investment banking career in the private client group at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, then started up an institutional equity trading desk for Toronto Dominion in London before doing the same for National Bank. In 2008, he became a senior partner at GMP Securities in London focused on advising ASX, TSX and London listed mining companies. Throughout his investment banking career, he has helped fund many major resource projects in West Africa. In 2018, Mr. Alexander founded Park Road Capital, a Vancouver-based, natural resource focused consulting firm where he continued to leverage his extensive capital markets experience.

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