AMERISAFE (NASDAQ:AMSF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Good day, and welcome to the AMERISAFE First Quarter twenty twenty six Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Kathryn Shirley, Chief Administrative Officer. Please go ahead. Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the AMERISAFE twenty twenty six First Quarter Investor Call. If you have not received the earnings release, it is available on our website at amerisafe.com. Today, this call is being recorded. A replay of today's call will be available. Details on how to access the replay are in the earnings release. During this call, we will be making forward looking statements intended to fall within the Safe Harbor provided under the securities laws.

0:49 These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in these statements if the underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect or as a result of risks, uncertainties, and other factors, including factors discussed in the earnings release, in the comments made during today's call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10 ks, Form 10 Qs, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Janelle Frost, AMERISAFE's President and CEO. Thank you, Katherine, and good afternoon.

1:35 We are pleased with our solid start to 2026 marked by continued growth, disciplined execution, and attractive underwriting performance. During the quarter we grew net premiums earned by 9%. We also delivered a combined ratio of 93.2% and produced operating earnings of $0.50 per share. These results reflect steady operating momentum amongst the competitive backdrop facing the workers' compensation industry. The workers' compensation market remains competitive and continues to operate in a prolonged soft pricing environment amid persistent industry headwinds such as claims severity and economic uncertainty. At the same time, workers' compensation remains the most consistently profitable line within the P and C industry, supported by long term claim development and stable capital structures.

2:30 In this environment sustained success depends on appropriately priced risk selection and deep industry experience. At AMERISAFE, our differentiated approach to servicing high hazard industries continues to support consistent returns across the cycle. Our eighth consecutive quarter of premium growth, continued improvement in our expense ratio, and favorable prior year loss development underscore the strength of our operating model and the dedication of our team. We believe these fundamentals position us well to navigate current market conditions while continuing to create long term value for our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Vincent to walk through the details of our growth and underwriting performance for the quarter.

3:17 Thanks, Janelle. In the first quarter of twenty twenty six, gross premiums written were $88,500,000 compared to 83,800,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, increasing 5.6%. Retention for policies for which we offered renewal was 92.4% in the quarter, and pricing remained strong, helping offset continued downward pressure in file loss costs. New business opportunities continue to grow despite steady competition. Together, new and renewal voluntary premium increased 8.2% in the quarter, reflecting ongoing investments in distribution effectiveness, and recognition of our commitment to delivering outstanding safety and claims services to our policyholders.

4:06 In force policy count increased 1.7% in the quarter and 9.5% since Q1 twenty twenty five. Audit premium and related adjustments remained positive, adding $3,700,000 in the quarter compared to $5,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. And net earned premiums were $75,100,000 in the quarter, growing 9% year over year. While we don't usually comment on policyholder dividends, I do want to give some color since it was seemingly an outlier for this quarter. If you look at recent quarter history, you'll see that there is some variability in this ratio quarter to quarter, albeit in a relatively small range. In last year's first quarter, the dividend ratio was 0.9%, while in the subsequent quarter Q2 twenty twenty five, it was 1.8%.

5:00 We have not changed our policyholder dividend strategy or plans, and this first quarter result was within our expectations. In the few states where we do offer policyholder dividends as a competitive tool, the ultimate outcome depends upon individual policyholder experience for policies in the quarter being evaluated. With recent policy count growth, it is not unexpected that more policyholders could qualify for dividends. Finally, back to the routine, an update on payroll growth. We continue to see positive wage growth in our targeted classes of business, coming in at 4.5% for the quarter, while headcount change was essentially flat. We believe continued payroll growth across our targeted industries indicates relatively healthy business activity despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

5:56 Payroll growth, and in particular wage growth, can help offset ongoing pressure on rates, both from competition and filed loss costs. That concludes the overview of premium results. I will hand the call back to Janelle for more information on claims, investments, and other financial metrics. Thank you, Vince. Next quarter I'll have the pleasure of passing the financial remarks off to Guillermo Ramos, our new CFO. Until then, bear with me one more time as I blend the financial results with other operational commentary. The current accident year loss ratio was 72% for the quarter compared to 72% for the accident year 2025 at twelve months, but 71% at the first quarter of twenty twenty five. As we've discussed over the last two quarters, continued rate pressure and general high claim severity are creating modest upward pressure on the current accident year.

6:51 That said, large claim losses incurred can be lumpy. We ended the first quarter of the current accident year with no claims with incurred value over $1,000,000 compared to two in the first quarter of accident year 2025. As for prior accident years, we had $7,600,000 or 10.1 points of favorable development in the quarter, compared to $8,700,000 or 12.7 points in the prior year quarter, resulting in a net loss ratio of 61.9% for the quarter. The impact of favorable prior year development to the net loss ratio quarter over prior year quarter is influenced by the growth in net premiums earned. To round out the combined ratio, total underwriting and other expenses were 22,300,000 for the quarter, resulting in an expense ratio of 29.7% compared to 29.9% a year ago.

7:45 This marks the third consecutive year over year improvement, reflecting disciplined expense management and continued operating leverage as our strategic growth initiatives drive growth in net premiums earned. During the first quarter of twenty twenty six net income was $8,100,000 or $0.43 per diluted share, while operating net income was $9,500,000 or $0.50 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $8,900,000 or $0.47 per diluted share and operating net income of $11,400,000 or $0.60 per diluted share in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 19.8% compared to 20.2% in the prior year quarter.

8:33 Turning to our investment portfolio, net investment income decreased 0.8% to 6,600,000 due to lower average investable assets. However, new money yields were favorable during the quarter with the yield on new investments increasing 174 basis points in comparison to the portfolio roll off, driving our tax equivalent yield to 3.9% or seven basis points higher than the first quarter of twenty twenty five. The portfolio remains high quality carrying an average AA- credit rating and a duration of four point four years. Asset allocation was largely unchanged with the portfolio composition being 61% municipals, 24% corporate bonds, 3% U. S. Treasuries and agencies, 7% Equities, and 5% in Cash.

9:23 Approximately 43% of our portfolio is designated as held to maturity, carrying a net unrealized loss position of $7,900,000 at quarter end. As a reminder, these held to maturity securities are carried at amortized cost and therefore unrealized gains and losses on these securities are not reflected in our book value. Also during the quarter we repurchased nearly 120,000 shares of common stock under the company's share repurchase program at an average cost of $33.60 per share for a total of $4,000,000 The remaining outstanding share repurchase authorization under the program as of March 31 is $12,900,000 Overall our capital position is strong supported by high quality balance sheet, solid reserve position, and prudent investment strategy.

10:14 At quarter end we held approximately $774,000,000 in cash and invested assets. Finally, couple other topics. Book value per share at quarter end was $13.18 and we will file our 10 Q on Thursday, April 23, after market close. With that, we'll open the call up for questions. Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, please press star one to ask a question. And we'll take our first question from Mark Hughes with Truist.

11:01 Good afternoon. Good afternoon, Mark. Janelle, how did you see inflation in the quarter? It sounds like the medical inflation, claims inflation, sounds like the large claims were negligible. Any observations about any marginal changes? No, no marginal changes from what we talked about at year end Mark. Medicalization is real, are living it, we are reserving properly for it. I still feel I'll stick by what I said at year end I still feel fee schedules are doing their job and helping us contain costs.

11:47 But I also think NCCI recognizing last year, this time last year, that medical inflation was up or medical severity was up 6% It was eye opening to the industry, I think CEOs have been talking about it for a while, and we're just a few weeks away from seeing what that number was for 2025 per NCCI as well. So I would expect that there's continued pressure on medical inflation industry wide, not just with our severe claims. Yeah. What do you think they'll say? I guess our observation was it seemed like 2024 and 2025 were not starting off in as good a shape as some of the older accident years. Do you have any observations about what you've seen in the industry data?

12:38 Yeah, you know that's a great point Mark. I think when you look at even NCCI last year in their data had each accident year combined ratio seemed to be worsening, getting closer and closer to that 100% combined ratio for the industry. So I mean I think they're industry wide we're seeing a deterioration in those results. And you're right, after the year '24 and '25 for the industry as a whole, I think there are there is definitely pressure there. But when you're talking twelve years of declining rates I think that's a natural progression, That there's going to be pressure there. Even though frequency for the industry has continued to go down, inflation and the severity on claims has ticked up, and the declining rate environment. So I think there's going to be continued pressure for the industry on those accident year combined ratios. So it'd be very interesting to see on an accident year basis what those projections are reported versus projected, but also how much that affects the calendar year, like how much favorable development the industry has experienced from older accident years. To your point, that those accident years 'twenty two and prior versus what's developing or what emergence we've seen out of 'twenty four and 'twenty five.

14:05 Yeah. How about NCCI loss costs? I think you've shared kind of the recent experience and some of the updates you've been getting. What does that trend look like? Hey Mark, this is Vince. We're still looking at mid single digit decreases for the year. Most states have already put in their filings for 2026. Just to give you some sense of the range, in our five biggest states they range from down almost 9% to down 1.2%. And everything in between with a few outliers. Understood. Then Janelle, I don't know if you gave any specifics on payroll. I think you might have done that in the past, of payroll growth or headcount growth. Any statistics there you can share?

14:58 Hey, Vince, I'm gonna jump in for Janelle. I've got I've got it right in front of you. We're seeing payroll growth across all of our major classes to varying degrees, but it's predominantly wage growth, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks. Headcount growth has been flat to slightly down, different quarters it varies quite a bit, but across all industries payroll growth continues to be positive. Understood. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you, Mark. Thank you. And we will take our next question from David Samar with Citizens JMP.

15:48 Hi, this is David on for Matt. Had one question. Hey, for the voluntary premium growth, are there any certain industries or areas of the market that are driving growth more than others right now? No, I would say it's been pretty steady across our book of business. One of things that we've actually been happy to see as we've had these strategic initiatives to grow policy count and to grow premium, that the changes that we've made have been serving us across industries, across states. In other words, we don't see pockets of what's working here, it's not working there. It's been pretty prolific throughout the book of business. So even if you look at the 10 ks last year, which last year was when our growth initiatives really started taking root in terms of the numbers we reported, If you look at the 10 ks and the shift between industry groups or even the shifts among the states there's really not a lot of change '25 over '24 and that held true in the first quarter as well.

16:52 Thank you. Thank you. And we will take our next question from Bob Farnam with Brienne Capital. Hey there. Good afternoon. Hi, Bob. One question on I have one broad question and one specific question. So the specific question is you talked about the duration of the your assets four years. I'm just it's a little over four years. So I just wanted to know kind of how does that compare to the duration of your liabilities? Oh, great question. Yeah. So our average duration on our portfolio, on our liabilities, is between three and four years. As you know, we Which is surprising. I'm sorry. Go ahead.

17:37 Yeah. No, I said that's kind of surprising. People think of already a workers' comp writer would have a longer duration of claims. Is it? Yeah, I appreciate you asking. It's one of my favorite subjects. The way we handle claims is thank you, Bob. The way we handle claims is different than the industry. We really focus on I've talked about this numerous times, but our high touch model involves our claims adjusters getting in quickly, establishing relationships, getting those reserves put up quickly, and then working with our injured workers, providers, finding ways to close and settle these claims as quickly as we can, to the benefit of the injured worker, to the benefit of the policyholder, and ultimately to the benefit of AMERISAFE.

18:23 And that helps shorten our duration on our claims, on these severe claims. We know that we're lower than the average bear, as they say in the industry, but that's part of our operating model and that's how we manage claims. Cool, alright. And broader one, know, I've been covering workers comp for quite a while, you obviously have as well, and I would have said maybe five or six years ago I thought that frequency would have bottomed. And here we go. And we if here we keep going, we're like, alright. Frequency's down again. Frequency's down again. Frequency's down again. When is this gonna end? And and what do you think is is driving You can only do so much safety and, you know, risk services, things like that. I just don't know where it is at bottom.

19:18 I would agree with you, Bob. I guess partly it matters on how you're measuring frequency, So if you're measuring it per million dollars of payroll or a million dollars of premium. But either way you look at it right now, it's still on the decline. A couple things I think factor into that. I agree with you. Is the workplace safer? Absolutely. I think the mix of jobs that we have, also the fact that our economy is shifting more towards services, I think that impacts the overall frequency. Because again you're talking broadly, not just what AMERISAFE writes, but broadly. I think the types of jobs, the types of workforce that we have, that's somewhat influencing that number. If you're looking at really long term trends, I think our economy has shifted more from manufacturing in those types of jobs to more service related jobs.

20:10 So that kind of I think that's contributing somewhat to the frequency. But I happen to be with you. If you would ask me three or four years ago, even for the industry, not even talking about AMERISAFE specific, for the industry, I would have said, well it's got to reach them at some point. I mean people are going to have accidents. We're all human. But yet whether you measure it on payroll or premium as of now, it's down. Yeah. I I I just remembered you talking about it a long time ago saying, frequency can't drop down to zero, so it's gotta end at some point. But but, man, you guys keep impressing me. I always appreciate when people remember when I'm wrong. Yes. You're right. Alright. That's it for me. Thanks for your color. Thanks, Bob. Thank you. And we will take our next question from Mark Hughes with Truist.

21:02 Janelle, you all have been doing very well on the top line growth. If you touched on this earlier in the call, forgive me. But the I think I've asked before about how sustainable this is, whether some initiatives you put in place and kind of have potentially run their course or whether there's always something new and you continue to bear fruit with your distribution strategies? I'm just sort of curious if there's any remarks you have about kind of what's keeping the momentum going forward. Yeah, let me start with the team here at AMERISAFE is executing.

21:48 I've talked about this before, three years ago probably at this point dating back maybe longer now, we started putting together this growth strategy and how we wanted to be very thoughtful and very measured about that growth strategy. And the team here is just executing. And the fact that to question earlier the fact that it's been prolific across our industry classes, across our states, I totally believe it is sustainable. Is it linear? No. But you know we're shooting for that mid single digit range and we've been hitting that. And like I said, kudos to the AMERISAFE employees for really executing and taking this idea of adding small incremental growth and not changing our risk profile and sticking to our knitting and being who we want to be and executing on that.

22:41 Kudos to them for executing on that. So I truly believe that is sustainable. Momentum is there, the attitude is there, the strategy is there. Yeah. And this is trivial question, but why did you move the call to the afternoon? Great question. Actually scheduling conflict. So thank you for asking. I apologize if it is inconvenient. Yeah. Okay. So next time it'll be 10:30 again? Yes. We will go back to our normal schedule. Yeah. Okay. Alright. Very good. Thank you. You're welcome. Thank you. And this concludes today's question and answer session.

23:26 I would now like to turn the call back to Janelle Frost, CEO, for closing comments. Thoughtful and measured growth with pricing adequacy continues to be the anchor for our performance, even amidst the competitive pressures of the workers' compensation market. Our results this quarter reflect the strength of these fundamentals, supported by a strong balance sheet that positions AMERISAFE well across the market. We remain confident in our strategy and committed to consistent execution to deliver sustainable underwriting profitability and long term shareholder value. Thank you for joining us today. This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.