Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Debt Investor Presentation (September 2022)
71 slides from Assured Guaranty's debt investor presentation, Sep 30, 2022
Slide 1: Fixed Income Investor Presentation September 30, 2022
EMBRACE POSSIBILITIES, INVEST IN CERTAINTIES Fixed Income Investor Presentation September 30, 2022
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Page Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure 2 Conventions, Disclaimers and Non-GAAP Financial Measures 3 Corporate Overview 4 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview 31 AGM Consolidated1 Portfolio Review 44 Assured Guaranty Corp. Portfolio Revie
Slide 3: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 4: Conventions, Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Certain Statutory Data
Conventions, Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Certain Statutory Data • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – "AGM Consolidated" means Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) and its consolidated entities (consisting primarily of Assured Guaranty UK Limited
Slide 5: Corporate Overview
ASSURED (GUARANTY Corporate Overview
Slide 6: Corporate Overview
Corporate Overview • Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) is the leading financial guaranty franchise – We are the only long-standing financial guaranty company to have written new business throughout the 2008 financial crisis and rec
Slide 7: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) A (stable outlook) / Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty US Holdings (AGUS) U.S. Holding Company Assured Guaranty Re Ltd (AG Re) S&P: A (stable outlo
Slide 8: Investor and Issuer Benefits, and Insurance Operating Principles
Investor and Issuer Benefits, and Insurance Operating Principles • Our guaranty benefits investors and issuers because we provide credit selection, underwriting, surveillance and remediation, in addition to timely payment of scheduled principal and interest if an underlying transaction defaults – Bo
Slide 9: Strength of Financial Guaranty Business Model
Strength of Financial Guaranty Business Model • The Company insures scheduled payments of principal and interest when due ‒ Insurance law requires that each policy must provide that there shall be no acceleration of our obligations unless such acceleration is at our sole option • Issuers that defaul
Slide 10: Three Discrete Insurance Companies with Separate Capital Bases
Three Discrete Insurance Companies with Separate Capital Bases Consolidated Statutory-Basis Claims-Paying Resources and Exposures As of September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) AGM AGC AG Re6 Eliminations2 Consolidated Claims-paying resources Policyholders' surplus $2,660 $1,964 $721 $(215) $5,130 Conting
Slide 11: Principal Insurance Platforms
Assured Guaranty Principal Insurance Platforms • AGM, AGC, AGUK and AGE operate as four separate direct financial guaranty platforms, with AG Re operating as a reinsurer – AGM focuses exclusively on public finance and global infrastructure finance – AGC, as the most diversified platform, insures the
Slide 12: Principal Insurance Platforms (Cont.)
Assured Guaranty Principal Insurance Platforms (Cont.) • Companies distinct for legal and regulatory purposes – Separate capital bases with claims-paying resources1 as of September 30, 2022: – AGM $6.3 billion (includes AGUK and AGE) – AGC $3.1 billion – AG Re $1.6 billion (includes AGRO) – Separate
Slide 13: Asset Management
Assured Guaranty Asset Management • AssuredIM provides asset management services – As of September 30, 2022, AssuredIM had AUM1 of $17.5 billion in four strategies Strategy AUM ($ billions) CLOs $15.0 Opportunity Funds $2.0 Liquid Strategies $0.4 Wind-Down Funds $0.2 Total $17.5 – The Company is usi
Slide 14: AGM Consolidated Net Exposure
AGM Consolidated1 Net Exposure • AGM Consolidated1 is committed to insuring U.S. public finance and global infrastructure transactions. AGM’s subsidiaries, AGUK and AGE, may also underwrite structured finance transactions. Net Par Outstanding As of September 30, 2022 ($ in billions) U.S. Structured
Slide 15: AGM, AGUK and AGE Net Exposure
AGM, AGUK and AGE Net Exposure U.S. Muni Utilities U.S. Other Public Finance • AGM is a U.S. insurance company currently $18.8 $29.4 writing financial guarantees in the public AGM Net Par finance sector Non-U.S. Public Outstanding Finance – Provides insurance in public finance As of Sep. 30, 2022 $2
Slide 16: AGC is a Diversified Platform
AGC is a Diversified Platform • AGC, a diversified insurer, may write all Net Par Outstanding classes of financial guaranty business, As of September 30, 2022 including structured finance, U.S. public ($ in billions) finance and global infrastructure • Structured finance eligible for new business U.
Slide 17: AG Re and AGRO
AG Re and AGRO Consolidated AG Re AGRO Net Par Outstanding1 Outstanding Net Exposure2 As of September 30, 2022 ($ in billions) As of September 30, 2022 ($ in billions) U.S. Structured Non-U.S. RVI Aircraft Financial Guaranty Finance Public Insurance Finance Public Finance $3.2 $0.2 $9.0 $0.2 A Non-U
Slide 18: Underwriting Discipline
Underwriting Discipline • Our U.S. public finance portfolio, our Consolidated Net Par Outstanding As of September 30, 2022 largest exposure category, generally ($ in billions) Non-U.S. Structured performed well during the 2008 recession Finance and in subsequent years, including into AA Average Rati
Slide 19: Creating Value: Insurance Penetration in U.S. Public Finance
Creating Value Insurance Penetration in the U.S. Public Finance Market • Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance new business production was solid in the first three quarters of 2022 – The $14 billion we insured of U.S. public finance total new-issue par closed in the first nine months of 2022 was ou
Slide 20: Broadening Market Awareness
Broadening Market Awareness Current Advertising Campaigns 19
Slide 21: Competitive Landscape: Select AGM Transactions in 2022
Competitive Landscape Select AGM Transactions in 2022 $754,830,000 $608,310,000 $546,015,000 $459,943,677 $362,010,000 Dulles Metrorail Green Transmission Project LAX Airport CFC Rev. Bonds, City of Chicago, IL Tax-Exempt Senior & Second Metropolitan Washington Revenue Bonds, Series 2022A Consolidat
Slide 22: Creating Value: International Public Finance Business Activity
Creating Value Insurance International Public Finance Business Activity • In third quarter 2022, business activity was International Public Finance PVP1 primarily attributable to a secondary market (excluding SGI reinsurance portfolio)2 guarantee of regulated utilities ($ in millions) • In second qu
Slide 23: Creating Value: Global Structured Finance Business Activity
Creating Value Insurance Global Structured Finance Business Activity • In the third quarter of 2022, we provided a guaranty on a whole business securitization Global Structured PVP1 (excluding SGI reinsurance portfolio)2 • In the first half of 2022, among other ($ in millions) transactions, we insur
Slide 24: Creating Value: Underwriting Principles and Pricing Discipline
Creating Value Insurance Underwriting Principles and Pricing Discipline • New business production gross par written and PVP were strong in the first nine months of 2022, driven by particularly strong U.S. public finance production and international public finance production – U.S. Public Finance – G
Slide 25: Creating Value: Puerto Rico Update
Creating Value Puerto Rico Update • On March 15, 2022, the General Obligation (GO) and Public Buildings Authority (PBA) Plan of Adjustment (GO/PBA Plan)1, and the Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA) and the Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA) debt modificatio
Slide 26: Creating Value: AssuredIM
Creating Value AssuredIM • AssuredIM continued to execute on its key initiatives first three quarters of 2022 – Completed the final closing for Assured Healthcare Partners’ Fund II, bringing final aggregate commitments to $760 million – Priced two U.S. CLOs, selling nearly 50% of the equity to third
Slide 27: Creating Value: AssuredIM
Creating Value AssuredIM • AssuredIM brings knowledge and experience to expand the categories and types of investments in Assured Guaranty’s investment portfolio, and it manages a portion of the investment portfolio – The U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries, through AGAS, are authorized to invest up to $750
Slide 28: Financial Strength Ratings
Financial Strength Ratings U.S. Insurance Companies Financial Strength Ratings1 S&P KBRA Moody’s AA AA+ A1 AGM2 Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (July 2022) (October 2022) (March 2022) AA AA+ AGC Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (3) (July 2022) (October 2022) Recent Rating Activity • In Mar
Slide 29: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Net Par Outstanding Amortization • In the last five years, the net par outstanding of the insured portfolio has stabilized significantly, driven mainly by increased insured net par for the international public finance sector – Our current net par of $227 billion includes a negative adjustment of ove
Slide 30: Assured Guaranty Today: Capital Changes and Insured Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Today Capital Changes and Insured Portfolio Since the Global Financial Crisis Claims-Paying Resources Insured Leverage $ in billions $13.2 $12.8 $13.2 $12.8 $12.6 $12.6 $12.7 $12.1 $12.1 $11.9 $11.4 $11.1 $11.2 71.3x 70.5x $10.8 62.9x 58.9x 52.7x 47.4x 46.7x 46.2x 41.2x 38.6x 39.5x
Slide 31: Underlying Value: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Underlying Value High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash1,2 As of September 30, 2022 3 • Predominately consists of highly rated, fixed AAA 27% maturity and short-term investments, and cash; 57% rated AA or higher 5 NR 1% AA • Approximately $1.3 billion invested in liquid, 29
Slide 32: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview
Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Insured Portfolio Overview
Slide 33: AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio
AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured U.S. Finance Structured <1% Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 18% U.S. Public Finance 78% $227.1 billion1,2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S.
Slide 34: AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGL Consolidated Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 3% 1% AA 11% BBB 39% A 46% $227.1 billion1,2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance BIG AAA AAA
Slide 35: Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Par Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies1 As of September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AGM AGC AG Re Eliminations2 Outstanding Outstanding Puerto Rico Exposures Subject to a Plan or Support Agreement: Commonwealth o
Slide 36: Puerto Rico Scheduled Net Par Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Par Amortization of Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies As of September 30, 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2032 - 2037 - ($ millions) (4Q) (1Q) (2Q) (3Q) (4Q) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2036 2041 2042 Total Commonwealth of Puert
Slide 37: Puerto Rico Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization
Public Finance Puerto Rico Exposure Scheduled Net Debt Service Amortization of Exposure to the Commonwealth and its Agencies As of September 30, 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2032 - 2037 - ($ millions) (4Q) (1Q) (2Q) (3Q) (4Q) 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2036 2041 2042 Total Commonwealth
Slide 38: International Public Finance Exposure
International Public Finance Exposure Net Par Outstanding By Type As of September 30, 2022 ($ in billions) • International public finance net par outstanding Infrastructure finance is $41 billion and makes up 18% of our total $12.6 Sovereign and insured portfolio as of September 30, 2022 sub-soverei
Slide 39: Global Structured Finance Exposures
Global Structured Finance Exposures Net Par Outstanding By Type As of September 30, 2022 ($ in billions) U.S. RMBS • Assured Guaranty’s total structured finance $2.0 exposure of $8.2 billion, as of September 30, 25% 2022, reflects a $166.4 billion reduction from Global Pooled Corporate $174.6 billio
Slide 40: Consolidated U.S. RMBS
Consolidated U.S. RMBS By Type • Our $2.0 billion U.S. RMBS portfolio is As of September 30, 2022 amortizing both on a dollar basis and as a ($ in millions) percentage of the portfolio Subprime First Lien – Assured Guaranty’s U.S. RMBS exposure of $2.0 billion on $1,218 September 30, 2022, reflects
Slide 41: Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Three Months)
Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Be
Slide 42: Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Nine Months)
Consolidated Insurance Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Bene
Slide 43: Below Investment Grade Exposures
Below Investment Grade Exposures Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category1 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories • As of September 30, 2022, approximately ($ millions) September 30, 2022 December 31, 2021 $2.5 billion (43%) of the aggregate BIG BIG Category 1 U.S. pu
Slide 44: BIG Financial Guaranty Exposure Decline
BIG Financial Guaranty Exposure Decline • Since 4Q-11, BIG net par outstanding has declined by $21.0 billion • The largest components of our BIG exposure are Puerto Rico at 36% and U.S. RMBS at 18% • The finalization of the GO, PBA, CCDA and PRIFA settlements in March 2022 accounted for approximatel
Slide 45: AGM Consolidated Portfolio Review
AGM Consolidated1 Portfolio Review Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret 1. Please see page 3 for a definition of this convention.
Slide 46: AGM Consolidated Insured Portfolio
AGM Consolidated1 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured U.S. Finance Structured <1% Finance 1% U.S. Public Finance Non-U.S. 79% Public Finance 19% $152.6 billion2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. S
Slide 47: AGM Consolidated Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGM Consolidated1 Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA AA 2% 1% 9% BBB 39% A 48% $152.6 billion2 Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance BIG AAA AA AA
Slide 48: AGM Consolidated Insured Portfolio Net Par by Asset Type
AGM Consolidated1 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Net Par Outstanding By Asset Type ($ in millions) Net Par Avg. Internal Net Par Avg. Internal Outstanding Rating Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: U.S. structured finance: General obligation $ 49,651 A- RMBS $ 1,3
Slide 49: AGM Consolidated Investment Portfolio
AGM Consolidated1 Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2022 Invested Assets and Cash2,3 As of September 30, 2022 A 18% • Predominately consists of highly rated, fixed BBB Nearly 100% of BIG maturity and short-term investments, and cash; 7% is held for loss 47% rated AA or higher mitig
Slide 50: AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Three Months)
AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Benefit)
Slide 51: AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Nine Months)
AGM Consolidated Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Benefit) N
Slide 52: Assured Guaranty Corp. Portfolio Review
Assured Guaranty Corp. Portfolio Review Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 53: AGC Insured Portfolio
AGC Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance 2% Non-U.S. Public Finance 15% U.S. Public Finance 69% U.S. Structured Finance 14% $19.8 billion Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Financ
Slide 54: AGC Insured Portfolio Ratings
AGC Insured Portfolio Ratings Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 6% 6% AA 22% BBB 35% A 30% $19.8 billion Non-U.S. Portfolios U.S. Public Finance Portfolio U.S. Structured Finance Portfolio Public & Structured Finance BIG AAA AA BIG AAA BIG 6% <1
Slide 55: AGC Insured Portfolio Net Par by Asset Type
AGC Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2022 Net Par Outstanding By Asset Type ($ in millions) Net Par Avg. Internal Net Par Avg. Internal Outstanding Rating Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: U.S. structured finance: General obligation $ 3,488 A Life insurance transaction
Slide 56: AGC U.S. RMBS Exposure
AGC U.S. RMBS Exposure By Type As of September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Prime Alt-A First • AGC’s U.S. RMBS portfolio is amortizing on First Lien $28 Lien $134 an absolute basis and has declined as a 5% percentage of the portfolio 23% – $0.6 billion versus $13.4 billion at year-end 2007, Second a de
Slide 57: AGC Global Structured Finance Exposure
AGC Global Structured Finance Exposure Excluding U.S. RMBS By Type As of September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) • AGC’s non-U.S. RMBS global structured Life Insurance Transactions $830 finance exposures consist principally of: Other Structured – Life insurance transactions Finance $667 – Pooled corporat
Slide 58: AGC Investment Portfolio
AGC Investment Portfolio Fair Value as of September 30, 2022 Invested Assets and Cash1,2 As of September 30, 2022 • Predominately consists of highly rated, Nearly 100% of BIG fixed maturity and short-term investments, A BBB 12% 9% is held for loss and cash; 50% rated AA or higher 4 mitigation or oth
Slide 59: AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Three Months)
AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Benefit) Net (Paid) R
Slide 60: AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Nine Months)
AGC Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 Net Expected Loss to Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) Development (Benefit) Net (Paid) Rec
Slide 61: Appendix
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 62: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both (a) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and (b) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered
Slide 63: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 64: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS
Slide 65: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 66: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP
Appendix Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP Three Months Ended Reconciliation of GWP to PVP September 30, Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions) 2022 2021 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Total GWP $94 $106 $377 $454 $677 $612 $307 $154 $181 Less: Installment GWP and othe
Slide 67: Reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation September 30, September 30, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2022 2021 2022 2021 Per Diluted Per Diluted Per Dil
Slide 68: Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity to Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity to Adjusted Book Value1 Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) September 30, 2022 June 30, 2022 December 31, 2021 September 30, 2021 June 30, 2021 December 31, 2020 Total Per Share Total Per Share Tota
Slide 69: Reconciliation of GAAP ROE to Adjusted Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of GAAP ROE1 to Adjusted Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation (dollars in millions) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $11 $17 $30 126 Adjusted operating income2 133 34 253 197 Average shar
Slide 70: Assets Under Management
Appendix Assets Under Management Assets Under Management: The Company uses AUM as a metric to measure progress in its Asset Management segment. Management fee revenue is based on a variety of factors and is not perfectly correlated with AUM. However, we believe that AUM is a useful metric for assess
Slide 71: Assured Guaranty Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Michael Walker Managing Director Fixed Income Investor Relations Direct: 212.261.5575 mwalker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Investor Rel
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