Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation
68 slides from Assured Guaranty's earnings presentation, Mar 31, 2026
Slide 1: Equity Investor Presentation
Equity Investor Presentation March 31, 2026
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 3: Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – Ratings on Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. ▪ Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by
Slide 4: Table of Contents
Table of Contents • Quarterly highlights • Assured Guaranty overview – Strength of business model – Claims-paying resources – Financial strength ratings – Track record of creating shareholder value – Dividend limitation calculations – Simplified corporate structure • Underlying value – Historical gr
Slide 5: Highlights
ASSURED GUARANTY Highlights
Slide 6: First Quarter 2026 Highlights
First Quarter 2026 Highlights Financial Results • Earned $115 million of adjusted operating income1 ($2.50 per share) • Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL per share, adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share1 and adjusted book value per share1 were $124.28, $128.61 and $188.74, respect
Slide 7: New Insurance Business Production
New Insurance Business Production Gross Par Written ($ in millions, first quarter) Assured Guaranty insured $7.5 billion of $7,511 aggregate par in the first quarter • This aggregate amount of par is the largest first $5,363 $5,002 quarter amount in a decade $4,471 $3,743 – U.S. public finance insur
Slide 8: Assured Guaranty Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Assured Guaranty Overview
Slide 9: Financial Guaranty Business Model
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model • What do we insure? – We insure financial obligations in three main sectors ▪ U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Non-U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Global structured finance transactions – We focus
Slide 10: Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued)
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued) • How do we invest our investment portfolio? – Our portfolio predominately consists of highly rated fixed-maturity and short-term investments, and cash – We also have a strategy to invest a portion of our investment portfolio in
Slide 11: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Overview
Assured Guaranty Overview Overview Assured Guaranty Ltd. • Assured Guaranty is the leading financial guaranty franchise, with four decades of ($ in billions) Mar. 31, 2026 experience in the municipal and structured finance markets Insured net par outstanding $278.6 – We participate in the bond insur
Slide 12: Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength
Assured Guaranty Overview Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength Assured Guaranty maintained over $10 billion of claims-paying resources1 over 18 years while paying nearly $15 billion to insured investors From January 1, 2008 through $16 As of December 31 of each full year March 31, 2026: ($ in
Slide 13: Financial Guaranty Insurance Subsidiaries' Claims-Paying Resources
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Insurance Subsidiaries’ Claims-Paying Resources As of March 31, 2026 AG AG Re2 Eliminations3 Total Claims-paying resources ($ in millions): Policyholders' surplus $ 3,158 $ 698 $ 50 $ 3,906 Contingency reserve 1,539 — — 1,539 Qualified statutory capital 4
Slide 14: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Overview Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) S&P: A (stable outlook) / Moody’s: Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG
Slide 15: Financial Strength Ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurers
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Strength Ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurers Financial Strength Ratings1 S&P KBRA Moody's AA AA+ A1 AG Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (June 2025) (August 2025) (July 2024) Latest Updates • In June 2025, S&P affirmed the AA (stable outlook) financi
Slide 16: Adjusted Operating Income
Assured Guaranty Overview Adjusted Operating Income • Adjusted operating income per share1 was $2.50 in first quarter 2026, the second highest first quarter per share earning result in the last decade and only the third time first quarter per share earnings have exceeded $2.00 • Adjusted operating i
Slide 17: Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Assured Guaranty Overview Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value • We have a capital management strategy that has included returning excess capital to shareholders by repurchasing our common shares and distributing dividends – Since 2013, when we started our share repurchase program, through May
Slide 18: Expected 2026 Dividend Limitation Calculations
Assured Guaranty Overview Expected 2026 Dividend Limitation Calculations Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) (Domiciled in Maryland) (Domiciled in Bermuda) • Cannot exceed the lesser of: • Cannot exceed 25% of prior year total statutory capital and surplus (i) 10% of prior ye
Slide 19: Simplified Corporate Structure With Expected Dividend Capacity
Assured Guaranty Overview Simplified Corporate Structure With Expected Dividend Capacity1 Shareholders • Total investment portfolio and cash of $38 million2 Assured Guaranty Ltd. • 12-months through March 31, 2026, (Head Office – Bermuda; Tax Residence – U.K.) net expenses of $44 million • Annual di
Slide 20: Underlying Value
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 21: Historical Growth
Underlying Value Historical Growth Adjusted Book Value Per Share1,2 $188.74 $186.43 $170.12 $155.92 59.65 60.13 $141.98 55.37 AG R) (1 0% C 49.38 ase incre 48.06 :6 70% Value Book Adj. $126.78 $128.61 $114.75 $41.90 $106.54 $35.66 $93.92 $26.06 $29.54 16.53 $24.51 12.13 7.18 8.17 6.43 $18.88 $21.37
Slide 22: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Underlying Value High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash (excluding Assured Life Re.)1 As of March 31, 2026 U.S. government & agencies 2 1% AAA 23% Other invested assets3 8% 4 Sound Point 5% • Predominately consists of highly-rated, fixed maturity and short-term investments,
Slide 23: Total Invested Assets and Cash
Underlying Value Total Invested Assets and Cash • Total invested assets and cash (excluding Assured Life Re) have declined by $2.5 billion since year-end 2016, despite the Company returning $4.9 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends as well as paying $2.1 billion in
Slide 24: Net Investment Income and Operating Expenses
Underlying Value Net Investment Income1 and Operating Expenses • Nearly all of the Company’s annual operating expenses (excluding asset management expenses)2 are covered by annual net investment income1 Net Investment Income1 ($ in millions) $378 $365 $359 $366 $355 $340 $286 $269 $108 $92 2022 2023
Slide 25: New Business Activity
ASSURED GUARANTY New Business Activity
Slide 26: Insurance: U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: U.S. Public Finance • In first quarter 2026, Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance par was $4 billion and PVP was $48 million – U.S. public finance total par insured was the third largest amount of par insured in a decade • Industry insured transaction penetration a
Slide 27: Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance • First quarter 2026 business activity highlights: – A primary social housing transaction in France, Non-U.S. Public Finance PVP1 marking the Company’s inaugural primary ($ in millions; first quarter) guarantee in this sector within the Europe
Slide 28: Insurance: Global Structured Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Global Structured Finance • In first quarter 2026, business was primarily attributable to two main business lines: Global Structured Finance PVP1 ($ in millions; first quarter) – Fund finance transactions – Life insurance capital management business $60 • Full year 2
Slide 29: Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Slide 30: Asset Management Segment and Alternative Investments
Asset Management Segment and Alternative Investments Highlights Asset Management Segment • Assured Guaranty participates in the asset management business through its 30% ownership interest in Sound Point – Assured Guaranty’s share of Sound Point’s net income was $6 million (pre-tax) in first quarter
Slide 31: Annuity Reinsurance
ASSURED (GUARANTY Annuity Reinsurance
Slide 32: Annuity Reinsurance Business
Annuity Reinsurance Business To further its strategic objectives, Assured Guaranty is diversifying into annuity reinsurance by launching Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd. (Assured Life Re) Entry into Strategic Objectives Annuity Reinsurance Identify new business opportunities that are a natural extensio
Slide 33: Annuity Business and Assured Life Re's Product Focus
Annuity Business and Assured Life Re’s Product Focus Annuities are contracts sold by life insurance companies that provide a series of regular, guaranteed payments over a set period of time Annuities • People typically purchase annuities to save for retirement so they can receive a steady income str
Slide 34: Annuity Reinsurance Transaction Overview
Annuity Reinsurance Transaction Overview • Assured Guaranty completed the Warwick Re transaction in January 2026 – The purchase price was approximately $158 million – The purchase included a portfolio of two transactions which has as of March 31, 2026, $738 million of insurance liabilities and $909
Slide 35: High-Quality Assets Supporting Annuity Reinsurance
Annuity Reinsurance High-Quality Assets Supporting Annuity Reinsurance Total Invested Assets and Cash, and the Underlying Assets of Funds Withheld (Assured Life Re)1,2 As of March 31, 2026 AA 17% A 29% • Predominately consists of highly-rated, fixed maturity and short-term investments, AAA 9% and ca
Slide 36: Financial Results
ASSURED (GUARANTY Financial Results M4
Slide 37: First Quarter 2026 Results
First Quarter 2026 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data) Three Months Ended March 31, % Change vs. 1Q-25 2026 2025 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $88 $176 (50)% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $1.91 $3.44 (44)% Net ea
Slide 38: First Quarter 2026 Results: Supplemental Information
First Quarter 2026 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 Employee Equity in Net Income (Loss) Compensation, Benefit Earnings Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Loss Expense Expenses and Other (Losses) of Assured Guaranty Pr
Slide 39: Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Measures
Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Measures Loss and LAE reported on the GAAP Consolidated Statement of Operations: • Represents loss and loss adjustment expenses (LAE) for contracts accounted for as insurance and excludes losses related to credit derivatives, FG VIEs and contracts accounted for under
Slide 40: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered)
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Paid) to be
Slide 41: Insured Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 42: Net Par Outstanding by Sector
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of March 31, 2026 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance U.S. 2% Public Finance 78% U.S. Structured Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 18% $278.6 billion1,2 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Publ
Slide 43: Net Par Outstanding by Rating
Assured Guaranty Financial Guaranty Insured Portfolio1 Net Par Outstanding by Rating as of March 31, 2026 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 3% 1% AA 9% BBB 36% A 51% $278.6 billion Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Structured Finance Portfolio BIG AAA B
Slide 44: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Since year-end 2022, net par outstanding increased by $46 billion, with increased par outstanding in each of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance • Since year-end 2016, the composition of the
Slide 45: Puerto Rico Update
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Update • The Company continues to work to resolve its only unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA – On December 31, 2024, the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit (First Circuit) upheld its determination that: bondholders had a
Slide 46: Puerto Rico Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Exposure Exposure to Puerto Rico As of March 31, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AG AG Re Outstanding Outstanding Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposure Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) $322 $142 $464 $470 Resolved P
Slide 47: CLO Exposures
Assured Guaranty CLO Exposures Exposure in Four Distinct Areas Non-CLO 1. $0.8 billion of insured exposure Exposure $277.8 • Ten transactions Financial Guaranty • All of the exposure is investment grade Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding • Average credit enhancement is approximately 38% As of Mar
Slide 48: BIG Surveillance Categories
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Surveillance Categories The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories based on loss modeling1 and scenario probability weighting: BIG Surveillance Category 1: Exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a pre
Slide 49: Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category1 Financial Guaranty Portfolio Categories As of March 31, 2026 Net Par Percent of Percent of ($ billions) Outstanding BIG Par Total Par • Approximately $3.6 billion (1.3% of total BIG Surveillance Category 1 278.6 net
Slide 50: Total BIG Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Total BIG Exposure • Exposure with an internal BIG rating is $8.6 billion, down from $8.8 billion in fourth quarter 2025 – Approximately $3.6 billion of this exposure is currently categorized as BIG Surveillance Category 1, which are exposures for which there are p
Slide 51: BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure • Transactions rated BIG 2 represent approximately 44% of all BIG transactions (1.4% of total net par outstanding) – The largest components of our BIG 2 exposure are U.K. regulated utilities at 62% and international infrastructure at 25% •
Slide 52: BIG Exposures > $250 Million
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Exposures > $250 Million BIG Exposures Greater Than $250 Million As of March 31, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Par Internal Type1 Name or Description Outstanding Rating2 PF Thames Water Utilities Finance Plc $2,376 B PF Brightline Trains Florida LLC 1,133 B PF Coven
Slide 53: Appendix
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 54: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be conside
Slide 55: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful.To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 56: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: The Company’s management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments that are not expected to res
Slide 57: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 58: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums to PVP
Appendix AGL Consolidated Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP1 Three Months Ended Year Ended Reconciliation of GWP to PVP1 March 31, December 31, ($ in millions) 2026 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Total GWP $70 $35 $256 $440 $357 $360 $377 $454 $677 Less: Installment GWP
Slide 59: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 Three Months Ended Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation March 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2026 2025 Per Per Total Share Total Share Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $88 $1.91
Slide 60: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income (2014-2025)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 (2014-2025) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share Total
Slide 61: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income (2004-2013)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 (2004-2013) Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Total Per Share Total Per Share Total Per Share Total
Slide 62: Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity to Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Mar 31, 2026 Dec 31, 2025 Mar 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Tot
Slide 63: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2018-2022)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2018-2022) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total
Slide 64: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2013-2017)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2013-2017) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total
Slide 65: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2008-2012)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2008-2012) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total
Slide 66: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2004-2007)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2004-2007) Adjusted book value1 reconciliation As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2007 2006 2005 2004 2004 Q2 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Tot
Slide 67: Reconciliation of GAAP ROE to Adjusted Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL GAAP ROE1 to Adjusted Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation ($ in millions) Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 2025 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $88 $176 Adjusted operating income2 115 162 Average shareholders' equity attributable to AGL $5,603 $5,543 Average adj
Slide 68: Equity Investor Presentation Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Equity Investor Relations Direct: 212.339.3551 athomas@agltd.com Glenn Alterman Director Investor Relations Direct: