Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation
71 slides from Assured Guaranty's earnings presentation, Sep 30, 2026
Slide 1: Equity Investor Presentation
Equity Investor Presentation September 30, 2026
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 3: Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – Ratings on Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. ▪ Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by
Slide 4: Table of Contents
Table of Contents • Quarterly highlights • Assured Guaranty overview – Strength of business model – Claims-paying resources – Financial strength ratings – Track record of creating shareholder value – Dividend limitation calculations – Simplified corporate structure • Underlying value – Historical gr
Slide 5: Highlights
ASSURED GUARANTY Highlights
Slide 6: Third Quarter 2026 Highlights
Third Quarter 2026 Highlights Financial Results and Financial Guaranty Capital Management New Business Production • Earned $86 million of adjusted operating • Insured $7.5 billion of new business par income1 ($1.94 per share) • Generated $128 million of new business • Returned $17 million of dividen
Slide 7: Nine Months 2026 Highlights
Nine Months 2026 Highlights Financial Results and Financial Guaranty Capital Management New Business Production • Earned $256 million of adjusted operating income1 ($5.68 per share) • Insured $23.4 billion of new business par • Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share1 and adjusted book val
Slide 8: New Insurance Business Production
New Insurance Business Production Gross Par Written Assured Guaranty insured $23.4 billion of ($ in millions) aggregate par on 1,371 transactions during Nine Months 2026 $24,539 $23,403 $20,285 $20,603 • This included $7.5 billion of par on 432 transactions in third quarter 2026 $15,012 • Transactio
Slide 9: Assured Guaranty Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Assured Guaranty Overview
Slide 10: Financial Guaranty Business Model
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model • What do we insure? – We insure financial obligations in three main sectors ▪ U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Non-U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Global structured finance transactions – We focus
Slide 11: Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued)
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued) • How do we invest our investment portfolio? – Our portfolio primarily consists of highly rated fixed-maturity and short-term investments, and cash – We also have a strategy to invest a portion of our investment portfolio in alt
Slide 12: Financial Guaranty Financial Summary
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Financial Summary1 Assured Guaranty Ltd. • Assured Guaranty is the leading financial guaranty franchise, with four decades of ($ in billions) Sep. 30, 2026 experience in the municipal and structured finance markets Insured net par outstanding $281.1 – We
Slide 13: Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength
Assured Guaranty Overview Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength Assured Guaranty maintained $10 billion of claims-paying resources1 over 18 years while paying $15 billion to insured investors From January 1, 2008 through $16 As of December 31 of each full year September 30, 2026: ($ in billions
Slide 14: Financial Guaranty Claims-Paying Resources
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Claims-Paying Resources As of September 30, 2026 AG AG Re2 Eliminations3 Total Claims-paying resources ($ in millions): Policyholders' surplus $ 3,102 $ 673 $ 50 $ 3,825 Contingency reserve 1,599 — — 1,599 Qualified statutory capital 4,701 673 50 5,424 Un
Slide 15: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Overview Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) S&P: A (stable outlook) / Moody’s: Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) Assured Guaranty Global Holdings Inc
Slide 16: Financial Strength Ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurers
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Strength Ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurers Financial Strength Ratings1 S&P KBRA Moody's AA AA+ A1 AG Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (July 2026) (August 2026) (July 2026) Latest Updates • In July 2026, S&P affirmed the AA (stable outlook) financi
Slide 17: Adjusted Operating Income
Assured Guaranty Overview Adjusted Operating Income • Adjusted operating income per share1 was $5.68 for Nine Months 2026, the third highest Nine Months per share earning result in the last decade • Adjusted operating income1 is generated from premiums earned on our insured portfolio, investment ear
Slide 18: Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value
Assured Guaranty Overview Track Record of Creating Shareholder Value • We have a capital management strategy that has included returning excess capital to shareholders by repurchasing our common shares and distributing dividends – Since 2013, when we started our share repurchase program, through Nov
Slide 19: Expected 2026 Dividend Limitation Calculations
Assured Guaranty Overview Expected 2026 Dividend Limitation Calculations Assured Guaranty Inc. (AG) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) (Domiciled in Maryland) (Domiciled in Bermuda) • Cannot exceed the lesser of: • Cannot exceed 25% of prior year total statutory capital and surplus (i) 10% of prior ye
Slide 20: Simplified Corporate Structure With Expected Dividend Capacity
Assured Guaranty Overview Simplified Corporate Structure With Expected Dividend Capacity1 Shareholders • Total investment portfolio and cash of $68 million2 Assured Guaranty Ltd. • 12-months through September 30, (Head Office – Bermuda; Tax Residence – U.K.) 2026, net expenses of $44 million • Annua
Slide 21: Underlying Value
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 22: Historical Growth: Adjusted Book Value Per Share
Underlying Value Historical Growth Adjusted Book Value Per Share1,2 $192.60 $186.43 $170.12 $155.92 60.61 GR ) 59.65 % CA $141.98 reas e (10 55.37 % inc : 686 49.38 ue k Val 48.06 Adj . Boo $126.78 $131.99 $114.75 $41.90 $106.54 $35.66 $93.92 $26.06 $29.54 $24.51 12.13 16.53 7.18 8.17 6.43 $18.08 $1
Slide 23: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Underlying Value High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash (excluding Assured Life Re.)1 As of September 30, 2026 U.S. government & agencies 2 1% AAA 24% Other invested 3 assets 10% 4 Sound Point 5% • Primarily consists of highly-rated, fixed maturity and short-term investment
Slide 24: Total Invested Assets and Cash
Underlying Value Total Invested Assets and Cash • Total invested assets and cash (excluding Assured Life Re) have declined by $2.7 billion since year-end 2016, despite the Company returning $5.0 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends as well as paying $2.2 billion in
Slide 25: Net Investment Income and Operating Expenses
Underlying Value Net Investment Income1 and Operating Expenses • Nearly all of the Company’s annual operating expenses (excluding asset management expenses)2 are covered by annual net investment income1 Net Investment Income1 ($ in millions) $378 $365 $359 $366 $355 $340 $286 $293 $294 $269 2022 202
Slide 26: New Business Activity
ASSURED GUARANTY New Business Activity
Slide 27: Insurance: U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: U.S. Public Finance • For Nine Months 2026, Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance par was $15.6 billion and PVP1 was $199 million – U.S. public finance PVP1 was over 30% higher than PVP in the same period of 2025 • Assured Guaranty continued to prove its value propo
Slide 28: Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance Non-U.S. Public Finance PVP1 ($ in millions) $67 • Nine Months 2026 business activity highlights: – A primary social housing transaction in France – A regulated energy transaction in Spain $44 $38 – An infrastructure finance transaction in Fra
Slide 29: Insurance: Global Structured Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Global Structured Finance • For Nine Months 2026, business was primarily attributable to two main business lines: Global Structured Finance PVP1 – Fund finance transactions ($ in millions) – Life insurance capital management business $82 – A balloon note guaranty of
Slide 30: Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Slide 31: Asset Management Segment and Alternative Investments
Asset Management Segment and Alternative Investments Highlights Asset Management Segment • Assured Guaranty participates in the asset management business primarily through its 30% ownership interest in Sound Point – Assured Guaranty’s share of Sound Point’s pre-tax income was $3 million for Nine Mon
Slide 32: Annuity Reinsurance
ASSURED (GUARANTY Annuity Reinsurance
Slide 33: Annuity Reinsurance Business
Annuity Reinsurance Business To further its strategic objectives, Assured Guaranty has diversified into annuity reinsurance by launching Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd. (Assured Life Re) Entry into Strategic Objectives Annuity Reinsurance Identify new business opportunities that are a natural extensio
Slide 34: Annuity Business and Assured Life Re's Product Focus
Annuity Business and Assured Life Re’s Product Focus Annuities are contracts sold by life insurance companies that provide a series of regular, guaranteed payments over a set period of time Annuities • People typically purchase annuities to save for retirement so they can receive a steady income str
Slide 35: Assets Supporting Annuity Reinsurance
Annuity Reinsurance Assets Supporting Annuity Reinsurance Total Invested Assets and Cash, and the Underlying Assets of Funds Withheld (Assured Life Re)1,2 As of September 30, 2026 AA 14% A 32% • Primarily consists of highly-rated, fixed maturity and short-term investments, AAA 11% and cash NR 14% BI
Slide 36: Financial Results
ASSURED (GUARANTY Financial Results M4
Slide 37: Third Quarter 2026 Results
Third Quarter 2026 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data) Three Months Ended September 30, % Change vs. 3Q-25 2026 2025 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $78 $105 (26)% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $1.75 $2.18 (20)% Ne
Slide 38: Nine Months 2026 Results
Nine Months 2026 Results Select Financial Items Select GAAP Results ($ in millions, except per share data) Nine Months Ended September 30, % Change vs. 9M-25 2026 2025 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $205 $384 (47)% Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share $4.55 $7.73 (41)% Net
Slide 39: Third Quarter 2026 Results: Supplemental Information
Third Quarter 2026 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Three Months Ended September 30, 2026 Employee Equity in Net Income (Loss) Compensation, Benefit Earnings Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Loss Expense Expenses and Other (Losses) of Assured Guarant
Slide 40: Nine Months 2026 Results: Supplemental Information
Nine Months 2026 Results Supplemental Information Select Income Components ($ in millions) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026 Employee Equity in Net Income (Loss) Compensation, Benefit Earnings Attributable to Net Earned Net Investment Loss Expense Expenses and Other (Losses) of Assured Guaranty P
Slide 41: Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Measures
Financial Guaranty Segment Loss Measures Net economic loss development in third quarter 2026 was a benefit of $27 million, primarily attributable to Brightline Trains Florida LLC, senior revenue bonds secured by a continuing senior lien on Brightline’s assets Loss/(Benefit) ($ in millions) 3Q 2026 3
Slide 42: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) - Three Months
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Three Months Ended September 30, 2026 Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Pai
Slide 43: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) - Nine Months
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026 Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Paid)
Slide 44: Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 45: Net Par Outstanding by Sector
Assured Guaranty Financial Guaranty Insured Portfolio1 Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of September 30, 2026 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance U.S. 2% Public Finance 78% U.S. Structured Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 17% $281.1 billion Global U.S. Public Finance Po
Slide 46: Net Par Outstanding by Rating
Assured Guaranty Financial Guaranty Insured Portfolio1 Net Par Outstanding by Rating as of September 30, 2026 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 3% 1% AA 10% BBB 36% A 51% $281.1 billion Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Structured Finance Portfolio BIG
Slide 47: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Assured Guaranty Financial Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Since year-end 2022, net par outstanding increased by $48 billion, with increased par outstanding in each of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance • Since year-end 2016, the
Slide 48: Puerto Rico Update
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Update • The Company continues to work to resolve its only unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA – As of September 30, 2026, the Company’s outstanding net par exposure to PREPA declined to $358 million, due to claim payments – On December 31,
Slide 49: Puerto Rico Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Exposure Exposure to Puerto Rico As of September 30, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AG AG Re Outstanding Outstanding Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposure Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) $246 $112 $358 $364 Resolv
Slide 50: Assured Guaranty CLO Exposures
Assured Guaranty CLO Exposures Exposure in Four Distinct Areas Non-CLO 1. $0.6 billion of insured exposure Exposure $280.5 • Nine transactions Financial Guaranty • All of the exposure is investment grade Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding • Average credit enhancement is approximately 40% As of Se
Slide 51: BIG Surveillance Categories
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Surveillance Categories The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories based on loss modeling1 and scenario probability weighting: BIG Surveillance Category 1: Exposures for which the aggregate probability weighting of sce
Slide 52: Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category1 Financial Guaranty Portfolio Categories As of September 30, 2026 Net Par Percent of Percent of ($ billions) Outstanding BIG Par Total Par • $3.1 billion (1.1% of total net par) of the BIG Surveillance Category 1 281
Slide 53: Total BIG Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Total BIG Exposure • Exposure with an internal BIG rating is $8.0 billion, down from $8.5 billion in second quarter 2026 – $3.1 billion of this exposure is currently categorized as BIG 11 • The largest components of BIG exposure are U.K. regulated utilities at 30%
Slide 54: BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure • Transactions rated BIG 2 represent approximately 48% of all BIG transactions (1.4% of total net par outstanding) – The largest component of our BIG 2 exposure is U.K. regulated utilities at 63% • Transactions rated BIG 3 represent approxi
Slide 55: BIG Exposures Greater Than $250 Million
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Exposures > $250 Million BIG Exposures Greater Than $250 Million As of September 30, 2026 ($ in millions) Net Par Internal Type1 Name or Description Outstanding Rating2 PF Thames Water Utilities Finance Plc $2,392 B PF Brightline Trains Florida LLC 1,133 CCC PF
Slide 56: Appendix
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 57: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be conside
Slide 58: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 59: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: The Company’s management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments that are not expected to res
Slide 60: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 61: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums to PVP
Appendix AGL Consolidated Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP1 Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP September 30, September 30, Year Ended December 31, ($ in millions) 2026 2025 2026 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 Total GWP $ 127
Slide 62: Reconciliation of Net Income to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation Three Months Ended September 30, Nine Months Ended September 30, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2026 2025 2026 2025 Per Per Per Per Total Share Total S
Slide 63: Reconciliation to Adjusted Operating Income (2015-2025)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 (2015-2025) Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation As of December 31, 2 ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2025 2024 2023 2022 1 2021 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Tota
Slide 64: Reconciliation to Adjusted Operating Income (2004-2014)
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1,2 (2004-2014) Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Per Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share
Slide 65: Reconciliation of Shareholders' Equity to Adjusted Book Value
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 As of ($ in millions, except per share amounts) Sep. 30, 2026 Jun. 30, 2026 Dec. 31, 2025 Sep. 30, 2025 Jun. 30, 2025 Dec. 31, 2024 Per Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Tota
Slide 66: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2020-2023)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2020-2023) As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2023 2022 2021 2020 Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reconciliation of shareholders' equity attributable
Slide 67: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2015-2019)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2015-2019) As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reconciliation of shareholders
Slide 68: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2009-2014)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2009-2014) As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Per Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reconcili
Slide 69: Reconciliation to Adjusted Book Value (2004-2008)
Appendix Reconciliation of Shareholders’ Equity Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Book Value1 (2004-2008) As of December 31, ($ in millions, except per share amounts) 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2004 Q2 Per Per Per Per Per Per Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Total Share Reconc
Slide 70: Reconciliation of GAAP ROE to Adjusted Operating ROE
Appendix Reconciliation of AGL GAAP ROE1 to Adjusted Operating ROE1,2 ROE Reconciliation ($ in millions) Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30, September 30, 2026 2025 2026 2025 Net income (loss) attributable to AGL $78 $105 $205 $384 Adjusted operating income2 86 124 256 336 Average sha
Slide 71: Assured Guaranty Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Equity Investor Relations Direct: 212.339.3551 athomas@agltd.com Glenn Alterman Director Investor Relations Direct: