Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF
Cf Industries — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
23 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, May 8, 2025
Slide 1: 2025 First Quarter Financial Results
2025 First Quarter Financial Results May 7, 2025 NYSE: CF
Slide 2: Safe harbor statement
Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such
Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures
Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield, which
Slide 4: Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation
Industry leading operational excellence drives cash generation $312M $644M $2.4B $2.0B Q1 2025 Q1 2025 Q1 2025 LTM Q1 2025 LTM Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Cash from Operations Capital Returned to Shareholders(2) $1.3B $2.5B $1.6B ~$630M Q1 2025 LTM Q1 2025 LTM Q1 2025 LTM Remaining in Current $3
Slide 5: Highlights and Outlook
Highlights and Outlook Highlights: Announced additional share repurchase authorization of $2 billion expiring in December 2029 Announced FID for Blue Point Joint Venture Low-Carbon Ammonia Production Facility with partners JERA and Mitsui Q1 2025 returned $530 million to shareholders through s
Slide 6: Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher volumes and lower costs
Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher volumes and lower costs Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $ millions $88 $644 $120 $(40) $17 $459 Adj. EBITDA Price Volume Realized 2024 Adj. EBITDA Q1 2024(1) Gas Cost Outage costs Q1 2025(1) not repeated & Other (1) See appendix for reconciliatio
Slide 7: Q1 2025 Cash Sources and Uses
Q1 2025 Cash Sources and Uses Returned $530M to shareholders $ millions $586 $(132) $(129) $(530) $1,614 $(3) $1,406 Cash Cash from Capex CHS Return to Other Cash Q4 2024(1) Operations Distribution(2) Shareholders(3) Q1 2025(1) (1) Represents the cash and cash equivalents balance on the Company's Co
Slide 8: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share
Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Intend to repurchase remaining ~$630M of authorization by December 2025 expiration Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 54% 50 39 30 17 2010 2015
Slide 9: Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders
Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders Additional share repurchase authorization of $2B expiring in December 2029 $ millions Cumulative Return of Capital Dividends Share Repurchase $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $5B returned to shareholders since $3,000 2022 $2,500 Intend to repur
Slide 10: Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale ammonia facilities required to meet demand growth
Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale(1) ammonia facilities required to meet demand growth Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China) (Million metric tons) 12-14 MMT Additional ammonia facilities required 9.7 MMT 7-8 MMT Blue Point FID 1.4MMT shortfall
Slide 11: Blue Point JV greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility
Blue Point JV greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility $4B Capital Expenditure Phasing (excluding scalable infrastructure of $550M) (1) CF JERA Mitsui ~35% ~30% ~15% ~10% ~10% 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Scalable Infrastructure ~5% ~35% ~35% ~20% ~5% Phasing Project Highlights: Construction
Slide 12: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics
Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics 2025 Nitrogen Market Outlook Global grains stocks-to-use ratio lowest in over a decade United States expected corn plantings ~95 million acres Chinese urea exports remains limited, expected in 2H 2025 Near-term global nitrogen India and Brazil
Slide 13: Save the Date: CF Industries Investor Day
CF Industries Investor Day Save the Date Save the Date June 24, 2025 June 24, 9:30am – 12:30pm ET 2025 Midtown, NYC Midtown, NY
Slide 14: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 15: Lowest global coarse grains stocks-to-use in over a decade and farm economics support favorable nitrogen demand in 2025
Lowest global coarse grains stocks-to-use in over a decade and farm economics support favorable nitrogen demand in 2025 Global Coarse Grains Stocks-to-Use Ratio Anticipated Average Returns over Variable vs Corn Futures Prices(1) and Land Cost(2) % s/u $/bu $/acre, U.S. average 16% $8 $500 $450 Corn
Slide 16: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table
CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 CF
Slide 17: Pathways to grow shareholder value
Pathways to grow shareholder value Disciplined Invest in high Low-carbon ammonia Margin enhancing growth initiatives return projects production growth projects & clean energy within our network Share repurchases Return capital Inorganic growth Evaluate accretive and quarterly dividends to shareholde
Slide 18: Strong free cash flow metrics show undervalued equity
Strong free cash flow metrics show undervalued equity Free Cash Flow Yield(1) 2021 – Q1 2025 LTM average yield 13.1% 16.7% 14.7% 12.0% 12.2% 10.0% 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q1 2025 LTM FCF/Adj EBITDA 79% 47% 65% 63% 63% conversion(2) % Attractive free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA
Slide 19: …resulting in strong free cash flow participation
…resulting in strong free cash flow participation CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of period-end LTM Free Cash Flow (millions) Shares Outstanding (millions) $3,000 230 $2,500 220 210 $2,000 200 $1,500 190 $1,000 180 $500 170 $0 160 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q1 LTM (millions) No
Slide 20: Financial results – first quarter 2025
Financial results – first quarter 2025 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Net sales $ 1,663 $ 1,470 Gross margin 572 409 - As a percentage of net sales 34.4 % 27.8 % Net earnings attributable to common stockholders $ 312 $ 194 Net earnings per diluted share 1.85 1.03
Slide 21: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Q1 2025 FY 2024 LTM Net earnings $ 351 $ 238 $ 1,590 $ 1,477 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (39) (44) (254) (259) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 312 194 1,
Slide 22: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Net earnings $ 1,838 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (313) (591) (343) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 1,525 3,346 917 Int
Slide 23: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow yield
Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion In millions, except percentages Q1 2025 LTM FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,412 $ 2,271 $ 2,757 $ 3,855 $ 2,873 Capital
CF Industries Holdings — Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix