Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF

Cf Industries — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation

25 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Aug 7, 2025

  1. Slide 1: 2025 First Half and Second Quarter Financial Results

    2025 First Half and Second Quarter Financial Results August 6, 2025 NYSE: CF

  2. Slide 2: Safe harbor statement

    Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such

  3. Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

    Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield, which

  4. Slide 4: Industry-leading operational excellence drives cash generation

    Industry-leading operational excellence drives cash generation $386M $761M $2.5B $1.9B Q2 2025 Q2 2025 Q2 2025 LTM Q2 2025 LTM Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Cash from Operations Capital Returned to Shareholders(2) $698M $1.4B $1.7B ~$2.4B 1H 2025 1H 2025 Q2 2025 LTM Share Repurchase Net Earnings A

  5. Slide 5: Highlights and Outlook

    Highlights and Outlook Highlights:  Started up Donaldsonville CCS project in July 2025 - Capturing and storing CO2 at expected rate - Generating 45Q tax credits  1H 2025 returned over $800 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends - ~$425 million remaining in $3 billion share

  6. Slide 6: Donaldsonville CO2 dehydration & compression unit running at expected rates

    Donaldsonville CO2 dehydration & compression unit running at expected rates Commissioned in July 2025 Capture up to 2M metric tons of CO2 per year Partnered with ExxonMobil for sequestration 45Q tax credit generation ~$100M projected in FCF annually for 12 years Sequestering ~10% CF Scope 1 emission

  7. Slide 7: Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher prices and volumes

    Q2 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher prices and volumes Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $ millions $46 $270 $(136) $752 $761 $(171) • $47M gain on sale of emissions credits in Q2 2024 Adj. EBITDA Price Volume Realized Other Adj. EBITDA Q2 2024(1) Gas Cost Q2 2025(1) (1) See appendix

  8. Slide 8: 1H 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher prices and volumes

    1H 2025 Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by higher prices and volumes 1H 2025 vs 1H 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $ millions $166 $287 $1,405 $(176) $1,211 $(83) • $47M gain on sale of emissions credits in Q2 2024 Adj. EBITDA Price Volume Realized Other Adj. EBITDA 1H 2024(1) Gas Cost 1H 2025(1) (1) See appe

  9. Slide 9: Q2 2025 cash sources and uses

    Q2 2025 cash sources and uses Returned $297M to shareholders $ millions $235 $563 $(245) $24 $1,686 $(297) $1,406 • Includes $90M of Blue Point JV capex Cash Cash from JERA & Mitsui Capex Return to Other Cash Q1 2025(1) Operations Blue Point JV Shareholders(2) Q2 2025(1) Capital Contributions (1) Re

  10. Slide 10: 1H 2025 cash sources and uses

    1H 2025 cash sources and uses Returned over $800M to shareholders $ millions $235 $1,149 $(377) $(129) • Includes $90M of $21 $1,686 $1,614 Blue Point JV capex $(827) Cash Cash from JERA & Mitsui Capex CHS Return to Other Cash 1H 2024(1) Operations Blue Point JV Distribution(2) Shareholders(3) 1H 20

  11. Slide 11: Strong FCF metrics underscore a disconnect between market value and fundamentals

    Strong FCF metrics underscore a disconnect between market value and fundamentals Free Cash Flow Yield(1) 2021 – Q2 2025 LTM average yield 13% 16.7% 14.7% 12.0% 11.6% 10.0% (3) 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q2 2025 LTM FCF/Adj EBITDA conversion %(2) 79% 47% 65% 63% 70% (1) Represents annual and Q2 2025 LTM fre

  12. Slide 12: Continued robust free cash flow participation

    Continued robust free cash flow participation CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of Period-end LTM Free Cash Flow (millions) Shares Outstanding (millions) $3,000 230 $2,500 220 210 $2,000 200 $1,500 190 $1,000 180 $500 170 $0 160 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q2 LTM (millions) Non-GA

  13. Slide 13: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share

    Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 55% 50 39 30 17 2010 2015 2020 Q2 2025 Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons) • UK decommissioned 6.0(1

  14. Slide 14: Blue Point JV greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility

    Blue Point JV greenfield low-carbon ammonia production facility $3.7B Capital Expenditure Phasing (excluding scalable infrastructure of $550M) (1) CF JERA Mitsui ~35% ~30% ~15% ~10% ~10% 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Scalable Infrastructure ~5% ~35% ~35% ~20% ~5% Phasing Project Highlights:  Constructio

  15. Slide 15: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics

    Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics Nitrogen Market Outlook  Geopolitical and gas-related supply disruptions likely to continue  Chinese urea exports restarted, limited to 3 MMT authorized quota Near-term global nitrogen  India and Brazil import demand expected to be robust in 2H 202

  16. Slide 16: Appendix

    Appendix

  17. Slide 17: Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale ammonia facilities required

    Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale(1) ammonia facilities required to meet demand growth Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China) (Million metric tons) 12-14 MMT Additional ammonia facilities required 9.7 MMT 7-8 MMT Blue Point FID 1.4MMT shortfall

  18. Slide 18: Coarse grain stocks-to-use

    Coarse grain stocks-to-use Global Coarse Grains Stocks-to-Use Ratio Anticipated Average Returns over Variable vs Corn Futures Prices(1) and Land Cost(2) % s/u $/bu $/acre, U.S. average $500 16% $7 $450 Corn 14% $6 $400 Soybeans 12% Wheat $5 $350 10% $300 $4 8% $250 $3 $200 6% $150 World ex-China $2

  19. Slide 19: Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers

    Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers; Europe remains the global marginal producer Global Energy Price 2023-2025F USD per MMBtu $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 ~$300/mt(1) ammonia margin opportunity $6 $4 $2 $- Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 JKM (Asia) natural gas TTF (Eur

  20. Slide 20: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

    CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 CF

  21. Slide 21: Pathways to grow shareholder value

    Pathways to grow shareholder value Disciplined Invest in high Low-carbon ammonia Margin enhancing growth initiatives return projects production growth projects & clean energy within our network Share repurchases Return capital Inorganic growth Evaluate accretive and quarterly dividends to shareholde

  22. Slide 22: Financial results – second quarter and first half 2025

    Financial results – second quarter and first half 2025 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q2 2025 Q2 2024 1H 2025 1H 2024 Net sales $ 1,890 $ 1,572 $ 3,553 $ 3,042 Gross margin 755 679 1,327 1,088 - As a percentage of net sales 39.9 % 43.2 % 37.3 % 35.8 % Net earnings attributable to

  23. Slide 23: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q2 2025 Q2 2024 1H 2025 1H 2024 Q2 2025 LTM Net earnings $ 492 $ 506 $ 843 $ 744 $ 1,576 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling (106) (86) (145) (130) (274) interests Net earnings attributable to common 386

  24. Slide 24: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Net earnings $ 1,477 $ 1,838 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (259) (313) (591) (343) Net earnings attributable to common stockholde

  25. Slide 25: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion In millions, except percentages Q2 2025 LTM FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,500 $ 2,271 $ 2,757 $ 3,855 $ 2,873 Capital

CF Industries Holdings — Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation on 6ix