Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF

Cf Industries — Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation

24 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Feb 19, 2026

  1. Slide 1: 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results

    2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results February 18, 2026 NYSE: CF

  2. Slide 2: Safe harbor statement

    Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such

  3. Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

    Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, free cash flow yield and marke

  4. Slide 4: Constructive global nitrogen dynamics and operational excellence deliver strong results

    Constructive global nitrogen dynamics and operational excellence deliver strong results $404M $821M $2.8B $1.7B Q4 2025 Q4 2025 FY 2025 FY 2025 Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Cash from Operations Capital Returned to Shareholders(2) $1.5B $2.9B $1.8B $1.7B FY 2025 FY 2025 FY 2025 Remaining in Curren

  5. Slide 5: Advancing our strategy through disciplined capital allocation

    Advancing our strategy through disciplined capital allocation Pathways to grow shareholder value 2025 Execution Return capital to • $1.3B to repurchase 16.6M shares representing shareholders 10% of shares outstanding since end of 2024 • $326M dividends paid Disciplined growth • Positive Blue Point F

  6. Slide 6: On track to deliver 20% mid-cycle EBITDA growth

    On track to deliver 20% mid-cycle EBITDA growth Monetizing decarbonization through structural benefits and CF market opportunities $ millions +20% $300 ~$3,000 $200 $2,500 45Q tax credit generation JV formed with JERA & Mitsui Low-carbon price premium Positive Blue Point FID JERA & Mitsui awarded co

  7. Slide 7: Management Outlook

    Management Outlook 2026 Outlook:  Tight supply-demand balance due to strong global demand, delayed startups, geopolitical uncertainty, gas availability, and European closures  Gross ammonia production in 2026 expected to be ~9.5 million tons due to the ongoing outage at the Yazoo City Complex  To

  8. Slide 8: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics

    Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics Nitrogen Market Outlook  Continued strong global demand driven by India and Brazil  Above average planted corn acres expected in North America  Geopolitical and gas-related supply disruptions likely to continue Near-term global nitrogen  Seasonal

  9. Slide 9: Delivering value by increasing nitrogen participation per share

    Delivering value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 57% 53 39 30 17 2010 2015 2020 2025 Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons) • UK NH3 closed 6.0(1) +16

  10. Slide 10: CF 2025 FCF to Adjusted EBITDA conversion outpaces sector averages

    CF 2025 FCF to Adjusted EBITDA conversion outpaces sector averages FCF to Adjusted EBITDA conversion 62% 51% 28% CFIndustries CF Industries… (1) S&P500 S&P 500Materials Materials…(2) S&P 500 S&P 500 Industrials Industrials… (2) (1) Represents FY 2025 free cash flow divided by FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA

  11. Slide 11: Sustained FCF strength points to an undervalued equity relative to fundamentals

    Sustained FCF strength points to an undervalued equity relative to fundamentals Free Cash Flow Yield(1) CF 2021 – 2025 average FCF yield 13.7% = 7.6x market cap/FCF(2) 15.1% 16.7% S&P 500 Materials 14.7% 12.0% 2021 – 2025 LTM average FCF yield 3.8% 10.0% = 26.3x market cap/FCF(3) 2021 2022 2023 2024

  12. Slide 12: Strong track record of returning significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders

    Strong track record of returning significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders while investing in growth 1, 3, 5-year Free Cash Flow Allocation $2.1B $6.3B $8.9B 100% 90% Dividends 80% 70% 77% 60% Share returned to Repurchases shareholders 50% 40% 30% 20% Growth Capex(1) 10% Inorganic Growth

  13. Slide 13: Demand driven prices currently above the cost curve, indicating tight global supply

    Demand driven prices currently above the cost curve, indicating tight global supply 2026 Monthly Delivered U.S. Gulf Urea Cost Curve Y-axis: USD/st X-axis: Monthly Production Capacity at 95% Operating Rate, million short tons 2026F Shipments: 18.6M Tons Avg. Appx. Monthly Range Illustrative of Seaso

  14. Slide 14: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

    CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 CF

  15. Slide 15: Estimated Blue Point project cost $3.7B

    Estimated Blue Point project cost $3.7B $Millions(1) 2025A 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F Total Blue Point Project Phasing 8% ~20% ~35% ~25% ~15% Blue Point JV Total(2) $307 $600 $1,200 $1,000 $593 $3,700 CF (40%) $123 $240 $480 $400 $237 $1,480 Scalable Infrastructure Phasing 2% ~25% ~35% ~25% ~15% CF (10

  16. Slide 16: Appendix

    Appendix

  17. Slide 17: Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by constructive global nitrogen dynamics

    Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by constructive global nitrogen dynamics Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 Adjusted EBITDA FY 2025 vs FY 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $ millions $ millions $1,055 $79 $2,893 $(316) $(209) $398 $2,284 $821 $(34) $(67) $(38) $562 Adj. EBITDA Price Volume Realized Other Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITD

  18. Slide 18: Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders

    Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders Q4 2025 Cash Sources and Uses FY 2025 Cash Sources and Uses $ millions $ millions Funded by JERA & $291 Mitsui(2) Funded by CF(3) $2,752 $(184) $(766) Funded by $(304) JERA & Funded $539 Mitsui(2) by CF(3) $(950) $(56) $254 $1,982 Consol

  19. Slide 19: Continued robust free cash flow participation

    Continued robust free cash flow participation CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of Period End LTM Free Cash Flow Shares Outstanding (millions) (millions) $3,000 208 215 $2,500 205 196 188 195 $2,000 185 170 $1,500 175 $2,165 $2,783 $1,799 $1,789 165 $1,000 154 $1,445 155 145 $5

  20. Slide 20: 2026 cost curve assumptions

    2026 cost curve assumptions Annual Average Energy Cost Location Source 2025E(1) Current(2) 2026F(3) Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) Henry Hub NYMEX 3.23 3.09 3.33 TTF ICE 12.60 10.56 9.21 NBP ICE 12.87 10.90 8.95 JKM ICE 13.35 9.55 9.48 Oil ($/Bbl) Brent Crude NYMEX 77 64 62 China Coal ($/tonne) Thermal 103 84

  21. Slide 21: Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2025

    Financial results – fourth quarter and FY 2025 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q4 2025 Q4 2024 FY 2025 FY 2024 Net sales $ 1,872 $ 1,524 $ 7,084 $ 5,936 Gross margin 765 524 2,724 2,056 - As a percentage of net sales 40.9 % 34.4 % 38.5 % 34.6 % Net earnings attributable to common

  22. Slide 22: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q4 2025 Q4 2024 FY 2025 FY 2024 Net earnings $ 495 $ 392 $ 1,798 $ 1,477 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (91) (64) (343) (259) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 404 328 1,455

  23. Slide 23: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Net earnings $ 1,838 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (313) (591) (343) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 1,525 3,346 917 In

  24. Slide 24: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion In millions, except percentages FY 2025 FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,752 $ 2,271 $ 2,757 $ 3,855 $ 2,873 Capital expe

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