Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF

Cf Industries — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

21 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Nov 6, 2025

  1. Slide 1: 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results

    2025 Third Quarter Financial Results November 5, 2025 NYSE: CF

  2. Slide 2: Safe harbor statement

    Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such

  3. Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

    Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, free cash flow yield and marke

  4. Slide 4: Industry-leading operational excellence drives cash generation

    Industry-leading operational excellence drives cash generation $353M $667M $2.6B $1.7B Q3 2025 Q3 2025 Q3 2025 LTM Q3 2025 LTM Net Earnings Adjusted EBITDA(1) Cash from Operations Capital Returned to Shareholders(2) $1.1B $2.1B $1.7B ~$2.0B 9M 2025 9M 2025 Q3 2025 LTM Share Repurchase Net Earnings A

  5. Slide 5: Highlights and Outlook

    Highlights and Outlook Highlights:  Sold cargoes of certified low-carbon ammonia at a premium to customers in Africa and Europe  Completed a nitric acid plant abatement project at Verdigris, OK facility, in October, that is expected to reduce CO2-e emissions by over 600,000 metric tons per year, o

  6. Slide 6: On track to deliver 20% mid-cycle EBITDA growth

    On track to deliver 20% mid-cycle EBITDA growth Monetizing decarbonization through structural benefits and CF market opportunities $ millions +20% $300 ~$3,000 $200 $2,500 45Q tax credit generation JV formed with JERA & Mitsui Low-carbon price premium Announced positive FID Verdigris N2O abatement P

  7. Slide 7: Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics

    Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics Nitrogen Market Outlook  Geopolitical and gas-related supply disruptions likely to continue  Chinese urea exports ~4 MMT, under current authorized quota Near-term global nitrogen  India and Brazil import demand expected to be robust in Q4 2025 mark

  8. Slide 8: Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by constructive global nitrogen dynamics

    Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by constructive global nitrogen dynamics Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024 Adjusted EBITDA 9M 2025 vs 9M 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $ millions $ millions $113 $657 $370 $2,072 $(249) $(53) $(171) $1,722 $(73) $667 $(88) $511 Adj. EBITDA Price Volume Realized Other Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA

  9. Slide 9: Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders

    Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders Q3 2025 Cash Sources and Uses 9M 2025 Cash Sources and Uses $ millions $ millions $291 $2,213 $(724) $1,064 $56 $(304) $(347) $(175) $16 $1,838 $1,838 $1,686 $1,614 $(441) $(5) $(1,268) Cash Cash from JERA & Mitsui Capex (2) CHS Return t

  10. Slide 10: Continued robust free cash flow participation

    Continued robust free cash flow participation CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of Period End LTM Free Cash Flow (millions) Shares Outstanding (millions) $3,000 215 $2,500 205 195 $2,000 185 $1,500 175 165 $1,000 155 145 $500 135 $0 125 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q3 2025 LTM (millions

  11. Slide 11: Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share

    Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 56% 52 39 30 17 2010 2015 2020 Q3 2025 Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons) • UK NH3 closed 6.0(1) +1

  12. Slide 12: Strong FCF metrics underscore a disconnect between market value and fundamentals

    Strong FCF metrics underscore a disconnect between market value and fundamentals Free Cash Flow Yield(1) CF 2021 – Q3 2025 LTM average yield 13.1% = 7.9x market cap/FCF(2) S&P 500 Materials (count = 26) 2021 – Q3 2025 LTM average yield 3.7% 16.7% = 27.0x market cap/FCF(2) 14.7% 12.0% 12.0% S&P 500 I

  13. Slide 13: Appendix

    Appendix

  14. Slide 14: Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers

    Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost producers; Europe remains the global marginal producer Global Energy Price 2023- Q1 2026F USD per MMBtu $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 ~$290/mt(1) ammonia margin opportunity $6 $4 $2 $- Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 JKM (Asia) natural g

  15. Slide 15: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

    CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of industry conditions Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1) $ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu) $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $30

  16. Slide 16: Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale ammonia facilities required

    Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale(1) ammonia facilities required to meet demand growth Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China) (Million metric tons) 12-14 MMT Additional ammonia facilities required 9.7 MMT 7-8 MMT Blue Point FID 1.4MMT shortfall

  17. Slide 17: Estimated Blue Point project $3.7B capex phasing

    Estimated Blue Point project $3.7B capex phasing $millions 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Total Blue Point Project Phasing ~10% ~20% ~35% ~25% ~10% Blue Point JV Total(1) $370 $740 $1,295 $925 $370 $3,700 CF (40%) $148 $296 $518 $370 $148 $1,480 Scalable Infrastructure Phasing ~5% ~35% ~35% ~20% ~5% CF (1

  18. Slide 18: Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2025

    Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2025 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q3 2025 Q3 2024 9M 2025 9M 2024 Net sales $ 1,659 $ 1,370 $ 5,212 $ 4,412 Gross margin 632 444 1,959 1,532 - As a percentage of net sales 38.1 % 32.4 % 37.6 % 34.7 % Net earnings attributa

  19. Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA In millions Q3 2025 Q3 2024 9M 2025 9M 2024 Q3 2025 LTM Net earnings $ 460 $ 341 $ 1,303 $ 1,085 $ 1,695 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling (107) (65) (252) (195) (316) interests Net earnings attributable to common

  20. Slide 20: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Net earnings $ 1,477 $ 1,838 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (259) (313) (591) (343) Net earnings attributable to common stockholde

  21. Slide 21: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow

    Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion In millions, except percentages Q3 2025 LTM FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,633 $ 2,271 $ 2,757 $ 3,855 $ 2,873 Capital

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