Assured Guaranty Ltd. · NYSE:AGO
Assured Guaranty — Debt Investor Presentation (March 2025)
50 slides from Assured Guaranty's debt investor presentation, Mar 31, 2025
Slide 1: Fixed Income Investor Presentation
Fixed Income Investor Presentation March 31, 2025
Slide 2: Table of Contents
Table of Contents Page Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure 3 Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures 4 Assured Guaranty Overview 5 New Business Activity 16 Asset Management and Alternative Investments 23 Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio 25 AG Insured Portfolio 36 AGUK, AGE, A
Slide 3: Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure
Forward-Looking Statements and Safe Harbor Disclosure • This presentation contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future
Slide 4: Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Conventions and Non-GAAP Financial Measures • Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this presentation: – Ratings on Assured Guaranty’s insured portfolio are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. ▪ Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by
Slide 5: Assured Guaranty Overview
ASSURED GUARANTY Assured Guaranty Overview
Slide 6: Overview
Assured Guaranty Overview • Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) is the leading financial guaranty franchise – We are the only long-standing financial guaranty company to have written new business throughout the 2008 financial crisis
Slide 7: Financial Guaranty Business Model
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model • What do we insure? – We insure financial obligations in three main sectors ▪ U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ Non-U.S. public finance and infrastructure transactions ▪ U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance transactions
Slide 8: Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued)
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Guaranty Business Model (Continued) • How does Assured Guaranty’s policy benefit investors? – Our policy benefits investors because we provide credit selection, underwriting, surveillance and remediation, in addition to timely payment of scheduled principal and in
Slide 9: Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength
Assured Guaranty Overview Resilience and Enduring Financial Strength Assured Guaranty maintained over $10 billion of claims-paying resources1 over 17 years while paying nearly $15 billion to insured investors From January 1, 2008 through $16 As of December 31 of each full year March 31, 2025: ($ in
Slide 10: Insurance Subsidiaries' Claims-Paying Resources
Assured Guaranty Overview Insurance Subsidiaries’ Claims-Paying Resources As of March 31, 2025 ($ in millions) AG AG Re1 Eliminations2 Total Claims-paying resources Policyholders' surplus $ 3,522 $ 779 $ 57 $ 4,358 Contingency reserve 1,421 — — 1,421 Qualified statutory capital 4,943 779 57 5,779 Un
Slide 11: Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure
Assured Guaranty Overview Assured Guaranty Ltd. Corporate Structure Assured Guaranty Ltd. Hamilton, Bermuda Publicly Traded Holding Company (NYSE: AGO) A (stable outlook) / Baa1 (stable outlook) issuer credit ratings Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) U.S. Hold
Slide 12: Principal Insurance Platforms
Assured Guaranty Overview Principal Insurance Platforms • AG, AGUK and AGE operate as three separate financial guaranty platforms, with AG Re operating as a reinsurer – AG focuses on insuring U.S. public finance, infrastructure and structured finance transactions – AGUK serves the U.K. market and ce
Slide 13: Changes Since 2009
Assured Guaranty Overview Changes Since 2009 Claims-Paying Resources Insured Leverage ($ in billions) 71.3x 70.5x $13.2 $13.2 $12.8 $12.8 $12.6 $12.6 $12.7 $12.1 $12.1 $11.9 62.9x $11.4 58.9x $11.1 $11.2 $10.8 $10.7 $10.2 $10.3 52.7x 47.4x 46.7x 46.2x 42% Decline 41.2x 41.1x 41.2x 38.6x 39.5x 37.5x
Slide 14: Financial Strength Ratings
Assured Guaranty Overview Financial Strength Ratings Financial Strength Ratings1 S&P KBRA Moody's AA AA+ A1 AG Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook (May 2024) (October 2024) (July 2024) Recent Updates • In August 2024, S&P issued a press release indicating no change to the AA (stable outlook
Slide 15: Underlying Value: High-Quality Investment Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Overview Underlying Value: High-Quality Investment Portfolio Total Invested Assets and Cash1,2 U.S. government & As of March 31, 2025 agencies 3 1% AAA 24% Other invested assets 6% Sound Point 4% • Predominately consists of highly rated, fixed maturity and short-term investments, Fi
Slide 16: New Business Activity
ASSURED GUARANTY New Business Activity
Slide 17: New Business Activity Overview
New Business Activity Overview Gross Par Written (First Quarter; $ in millions) • Assured Guaranty insured $5 billion of aggregate par in the first quarter of 2025 – This aggregate amount of par is the third largest $5,472 $5,363 first-quarter amount in a decade $5,002 $4,471 – U.S. public finance i
Slide 18: Insurance: U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: U.S. Public Finance • In first quarter 2025, Assured Guaranty’s U.S. public finance insured its second largest amount of first-quarter par in a decade – U.S. public finance insured $4 billion of total par that closed in the first quarter of 2025 – U.S. public finance
Slide 19: Broadening Market Awareness: Current Advertising Campaigns
U.S. Public Finance Broadening Market Awareness: Current Advertising Campaigns 19 ASSURED GUARANTY INC.
Slide 20: Competitive Landscape: Select AG Transactions in 2025
U.S. Public Finance Competitive Landscape: Select AG Transactions in 2025 Source: Refinitiv SDC Database. Amounts are on a sale-date basis and reflect only those series insured by Assured Guaranty Inc. (New York, NY). 20 ASSURED GUARANTY INC.
Slide 21: Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Non-U.S. Public Finance Non-U.S. Public Finance PVP1 (First Quarter; $ in millions) • In the first quarter of 2025, business activity primarily included U.K. regulated utility $30 transactions as well as a secondary market transaction for a U.K. public sector entity
Slide 22: Insurance: Global Structured Finance
New Business Activity Insurance: Global Structured Finance Global Structured Finance PVP1 • In the first quarter of 2025, business activity (First Quarter; $ in millions) was primarily attributable subscription finance and pooled corporate transactions $60 • During 2024, business activity primarily
Slide 23: Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Asset Management and Alternative Investments
Slide 24: Asset Management and Alternative Investments Highlights
Asset Management and Alternative Investments Highlights Asset Management • Assured Guaranty participates in the asset management business through its 30% ownership interest in Sound Point – Assured Guaranty’s share of Sound Point’s net income was $13 million (pre-tax) in the first quarter 2025 ▪ Thi
Slide 25: Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 26: Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of March 31, 2025
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of March 31, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance U.S. 1% Public Finance 77% U.S. Structured Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 19% $263.6 billion1,2 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Publ
Slide 27: Net Par Outstanding by Ratings as of March 31, 2025
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Ratings as of March 31, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 4% 1% AA 10% BBB 37% A 49% $263.6 billion1 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Structured Finance Portfolio BIG AAA BIG AAA BIG AAA 1%
Slide 28: Net Par Outstanding Amortization
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding Amortization • Since year-end 2022, net par outstanding increased by $31 billion, with increased par outstanding in each of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance • Since year-end 2016, the composition of the
Slide 29: Puerto Rico Update
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Update • The Company has divested the majority of the consideration it received as a result of the 2022 resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than PREPA • The Company continues to work to
Slide 30: Puerto Rico Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Exposure Exposure to Puerto Rico As of March 31, 2025 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding Total Net Par Gross Par AG AG Re Outstanding Outstanding Defaulted Puerto Rico Exposure Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) $378 $154 $532 $540 Total Defa
Slide 31: BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG Surveillance Category The Company assigns each BIG exposure to one of the three BIG surveillance categories based on loss modeling1 and scenario probability weighting: BIG Surveillance Category 1: Exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a prese
Slide 32: Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by BIG Surveillance Category1 Financial Guaranty and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories As of March 31, 2025 Net Par Percent of Percent of ($ millions) Outstanding BIG Par Total Par • Approximately $7.1 billion (2.7% of total BIG Surveil
Slide 33: Total BIG Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio Total BIG Exposure • Exposure with an internal BIG rating is $9.5 billion – This amount decreased by $640 million in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by the upgrade of a healthcare transaction from BIG Surveillance Category 1 to investment grade – Approx
Slide 34: BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure
Assured Guaranty Insured Portfolio BIG 2 and BIG 3 Exposure • Transactions rated BIG 2 and BIG 3 represent approximately 26% of all BIG transactions (0.9% of total net par outstanding) – BIG Surveillance Category 2 and Category 3 are exposures for which there are possible future losses, on a present
Slide 35: Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered)
Net Expected Loss and LAE to Be Paid (Recovered) Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 ($ in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid (Recovered)1 for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025 Net Expected Loss Net Economic Loss Net Expected Loss to be Paid Development Net (Paid) to be
Slide 36: AG Insured Portfolio
AG Insured Portfolio Eiffage CEVM / Foster + Partners / Jean-Pierre Lescourret
Slide 37: AG Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of March 31, 2025
AG Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Sector as of March 31, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Sector Non-U.S. Structured Finance 1% U.S. Public U.S. Finance Structured 78% Finance 3% Non-U.S. Public Finance 19% $203.0 billion1 Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portf
Slide 38: AG Net Par Outstanding by Ratings as of March 31, 2025
AG Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding by Ratings as of March 31, 2025 Portfolio Diversification by Rating BIG AAA 4% 1% AA 9% BBB 37% A 49% $203.0 billion Global U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Non-U.S. Public Finance Portfolio Structured Finance Portfolio BIG AAA AAA BIG <1% BIG AAA 1% 4% 12% AA 1
Slide 39: AG Investment Portfolio
AG Investment Portfolio Value as of March 31, 2025 Invested Assets and Cash1,2 As of March 31, 2025 U.S. government & agencies 3 1% AAA Other invested 23% assets <1% Equity method investments 6% • Predominately consists of highly rated, Fixed maturity securities, trading 4 fixed maturity and short-t
Slide 40: AGUK, AGE, AG Re and AGRO
ASSURED (GUARANTY AGUK, AGE, AG Re and AGRO M4
Slide 41: AGUK and AGE Net Par Outstanding
AGUK and AGE Net Par Outstanding AGUK Net Par Outstanding As of March 31, 2025 ($ in billions) Non-U.S. • AGUK is an insurance company domiciled in the Sovereign and Sub- U.K. that provides financial guarantees in the U.K. sovereign $1.0 and certain other countries Non-U.S. – Provides insurance in b
Slide 42: AG Re and AGRO
AG Re and AGRO AG Re AGRO Net Par Outstanding1 Outstanding Net Exposure2 As of March 31, 2025 ($ in billions) As of March 31, 2025 ($ in billions) Diversified U.S. Non-U.S. real estate Structured Structured $2.0 Finance Finance $3.5 6% $1.0 Financial 2% Guaranty 36% Structured Non-U.S. Finance Publi
Slide 43: Appendix
ASSURED (GUARANTY
Slide 44: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company discloses both: (i) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP; and (ii) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures). Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be conside
Slide 45: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure
Slide 46: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: The Company’s management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit deriv
Slide 47: Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont'd)
Appendix Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures (Cont’d) Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end
Slide 48: Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP
Appendix AGL Consolidated Reconciliation of Gross Written Premiums (GWP) to PVP1 Three Months Ended Reconciliation of GWP to PVP1 March 31, Year Ended December 31, (dollars in millions) 2025 2024 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Total GWP $35 $61 $440 $357 $360 $377 $454 $677 $612 2 Less: Installm
Slide 49: Reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income
Appendix Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to Adjusted Operating Income1 Three Months Ended Adjusted Operating Income1 Reconciliation March 31, (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2025 2024 Per Per Diluted Diluted Total Share Total Share Net income (loss) attributab
Slide 50: Contacts
Assured Guaranty Contacts: Robert Tucker Senior Managing Director Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Direct: 212.339.0861 rtucker@agltd.com Michael Walker Managing Director Fixed Income Investor Relations Direct: 212.261.5575 mwalker@agltd.com Andre Thomas Managing Director Investor Rel
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