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NatWest : Post Results Consensus (natwest group post q126 consensus)
NatWest : Post Results Consensus (natwest group post q126
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Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates NatWest Group Investor Relations 21 May 2026 NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (Average) 1 Models as at 21 May 2026 Quarter Full Year Q1'26 Q2'26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15 NatWest Group Group income statement, £m Net interest income 3,394 3,517 Non-interest income 964 884 Total income 1 4,358 4,400 Other operating expenses 1 (2,027) (2,013) Litigation and conduct (15) (68) Operating expenses (2,042) (2,081) Operating profit before impairment losses 2,316 2,319 Impairment losses (283) (235) Operating profit/(loss) before tax 2,033 2,084 Tax (charge)/credit (526) (560) Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations 1,507 1,523 Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax 0 0 Profit/(loss) for the period 1,507 1,523 12,829 14,250 15,381 16,037 3,812 3,846 4,127 4,282 16,641 18,097 19,507 20,320 (8,095) (8,465) (8,847) (8,967) (167) (218) (240) (239) (8,262) (8,683) (9,088) (9,207) 8,379 9,414 10,420 11,113 (671) (1,027) (1,114) (1,177) 7,708 8,387 9,306 9,936 (1,874) (2,255) (2,528) (2,700) 5,834 6,132 6,778 7,236 0 (0) 0 0 5,834 6,132 6,778 7,236 Attributable to: Ordinary shareholders 1,432 1,440 Other owners 73 82 Non-controlling interests 2 1 5,479 5,802 6,440 6,891 352 326 335 341 3 3 3 3 Notable items Notable items in income 135 2 Net interest income notable items 0 0 Non-interest income notable items 135 2 Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items 3,394 3,517 Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items 829 882 Memo: Total income excluding all notable items 1 4,223 4,398 241 132 7 7 0 0 0 0 241 132 7 7 12,829 14,250 15,381 16,037 3,571 3,715 4,119 4,275 16,400 17,965 19,500 20,313 1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. Some analysts assume consolidation at end Q2 and others in Q3, therefore some Q2'26 metrics are non-meaningful and are not included'. FY'26 guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19 , Q1'26 Outlook Statement . Guidance is for FY'26 total income excluding notable items to be at the top end of £17.2-17.6bn. The equivalent estimate from consensus is £17,712m. Guidance for FY'26 other operating expenses is around £8.2bn. The equivalent estimate from consensus is £8,236m. The estimate from consensus, excluding the contribution from Evelyn Partners, for AUMA is £61.5bn. 2 3 businesses reflect balances across Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional. Group includes Central items & other. 3 Guidance per Q1'26 outlook statement, Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement : "We expect Basel 3.1 to increase RWAs by around £10 billion on 1 January 2027". Consensus estimates for FY'26 RWA and CET1 are pro forma for B3.1 implementation on 1 Jan'27. The mean uplift for RWAs from B3.1 implementation is £10bn. 4 For FY'25 Evelyn Partners financials, see Slide 22, FY'25 Management Presentation . Quarter Full Year Q1'26 Q2'26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15 Group balance sheet, AUMA, and capital, £bn Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) (Group) 435.3 438.7 422.5 442.8 457.2 472.1 Customer deposits (Group) 445.5 448.3 443.0 454.3 467.0 479.5 Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) across the 3 businesses 2 400.0 403.9 392.7 409.4 423.5 438.0 Customer deposits across the 3 businesses 2 444.8 448.0 441.7 454.2 466.4 478.7 AUMA 1 56.7 58.5 132.3 141.5 151.1 Investment cash double count adjustment 1 (1.4) (1.2) (1.2) (1.2) (1.2) Group customer assets and liabilities (CAL) 1 900.1 891.7 994.7 1,030.2 1,066.6 Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs) 556.3 561.6 547.4 563.1 580.1 596.9 Total assets 749.6 745.8 714.6 745.8 764.1 782.3 Risk weighted assets 3 196.0 198.2 193.3 212.6 220.5 228.6 Tangible equity 1 31.9 30.7 30.9 33.6 35.3 Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) 1 31.5 28.6 30.7 32.1 34.3 Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end 7,971 7,918 7,995 7,894 7,779 7,480 Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average 7,979 7,944 8,052 7,930 7,842 7,643 Key metrics and ratios Group net interest margin 2.47% 2.51% Cost:income ratio 46.5% 45.8% Loan impairment rate 0.26% 0.22% Return on tangible equity 1 18.2% Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p) 17.9p 18.1p Ordinary DPS (p) -- 11.6p Buybacks 0 0 Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) 1 400p Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 1, 3 14.3% Capital generation pre-distributions 2.34% 2.53% 2.65% 2.69% 48.6% 46.8% 45.4% 44.1% 0.16% 0.24% 0.25% 0.25% 19.2% 18.9% 19.9% 19.9% 68.0p 73.2p 82.1p 90.2p 32.5p 36.5p 41.2p 45.5p 1,500 67 1,800 2,100 384p 391p 432p 472p 14.0% 13.0% 13.1% 13.2% 2.52% 1.83% 2.55% Interest rate expectations UK base rate (end of period) 3.75% 3.79% UK base rate (average for the period) 3.75% 3.76% 3.75% 3.86% 3.65% 3.61% 4.27% 3.80% 3.68% 3.59% MEMO: Evelyn Partners estimates in 2026 1,4 Income -- Other operating expenses (including CTA/transaction costs) -- AUMA 253 (229) 70.8 2 NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low) 1 Models as at 21 May 2026 Quarter Full Year Q2'26E 2026E 2027E 2028E Analysts included in consensus 15 15 NatWest Group Group income statement, £m Low Average High Net interest income 3,470 3,517 3,545 Non-interest income 850 884 947 Total income 1 4,339 4,400 4,454 Other operating expenses 1 (2,085) (2,013) (1,947) Litigation and conduct (96) (68) (40) Operating expenses (2,174) (2,081) (2,011) Operating profit before impairment losses 2,165 2,319 2,394 Impairment losses (264) (235) (193) Operating profit/(loss) before tax 1,943 2,084 2,166 Tax (charge)/credit (620) (560) (478) Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations 1,419 1,523 1,601 Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax 0 0 0 Profit/(loss) for the period 1,419 1,523 1,601 Low Average High 14,096 14,250 14,529 3,735 3,846 3,925 17,934 18,097 18,387 (8,549) (8,465) (8,368) (280) (218) (165) (8,778) (8,683) (8,608) 9,189 9,414 9,779 (1,145) (1,027) (923) 8,164 8,387 8,781 (2,456) (2,255) (2,144) 5,954 6,132 6,327 (2) (0) 0 5,954 6,132 6,327 Attributable to: 15 15 Low Average High 14,911 15,381 16,327 3,890 4,127 4,302 19,125 19,507 20,457 (9,014) (8,847) (8,667) (300) (240) (200) (9,260) (9,088) (8,920) 10,024 10,420 11,490 (1,219) (1,114) (962) 8,916 9,306 10,413 (2,968) (2,528) (2,355) 6,509 6,778 7,445 0 0 0 6,509 6,778 7,445 Low Average High 15,375 16,037 17,348 4,018 4,282 4,434 19,766 20,320 21,730 (9,191) (8,967) (8,801) (300) (239) (200) (9,438) (9,207) (9,045) 10,612 11,113 12,629 (1,387) (1,177) (990) 9,434 9,936 11,493 (3,268) (2,700) (2,504) 6,887 7,236 8,225 0 0 0 6,887 7,236 8,225 Ordinary shareholders 1,328 1,440 1,525 Other owners 72 82 102 Non-controlling interests (1) 1 3 5,635 5,802 6,031 290 326 360 (2) 3 11 6,179 6,440 7,141 292 335 378 0 3 12 6,534 6,891 7,921 292 341 397 0 3 12 Notable items Notable items in income 0 2 29 Net interest income notable items 0 0 0 Non-interest income notable items 0 2 29 Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items 3,470 3,517 3,545 Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items 850 882 947 Memo: Total income excluding all notable items 1 4,339 4,398 4,454 0 132 221 0 0 0 0 132 221 14,096 14,250 14,529 3,600 3,715 3,902 17,799 17,965 18,252 0 7 110 0 0 0 0 7 110 14,911 15,381 16,327 3,890 4,119 4,302 19,125 19,500 20,457 0 7 105 0 0 0 0 7 105 15,375 16,037 17,348 4,018 4,275 4,434 19,766 20,313 21,730 1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. FY'26 guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement (also see footnote 1 on page 2 of this document). 3 NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low) 1 Models as at 21 May 2026 Quarter Full Year Q2'26E 2026E 2027E 2028E Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15 Group balance sheet and capital, £bn Low Average High Low Average High Low Average High Low Average High Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) (Group) 432.8 438.7 443.2 435.8 442.8 449.5 447.0 457.2 465.6 458.1 472.1 482.9 Customer deposits (Group) 444.7 448.3 452.9 447.0 454.3 460.5 457.8 467.0 476.3 467.2 479.5 493.0 Gross loans to customers (amortised cost) across the 3 businesses 2 401.3 403.9 406.7 401.3 409.4 414.3 411.4 423.5 431.6 422.6 438.0 450.8 Customer deposits across the 3 businesses 2 444.0 448.0 452.2 447.4 454.2 459.8 456.5 466.4 475.7 465.8 478.7 492.5 AUMA 1 55.2 127.0 127.0 132.3 141.3 130.2 141.5 167.3 131.5 151.1 195.7 Investment cash double count adjustment 1 (1.4) (1.0) (1.4) (1.2) (1.0) (1.4) (1.2) (1.0) (1.4) (1.2) (1.0) Group customer assets and liabilities (CAL) 1 905.6 975.0 985.0 994.7 1,005.4 1,014.3 1,030.2 1,046.4 1,046.7 1,066.6 1,091.1 Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs) 556.9 561.6 567.7 551.0 563.1 573.3 562.3 580.1 597.8 574.7 596.9 619.5 Total assets 718.1 745.8 756.2 721.7 745.8 768.3 728.9 764.1 794.9 736.2 782.3 822.8 Risk weighted assets 3 194.0 198.2 201.5 209.7 212.6 216.6 215.6 220.5 227.6 221.0 228.6 239.1 Tangible equity 1 28.4 31.9 30.3 30.9 33.0 32.7 33.6 35.9 34.1 35.3 38.2 Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) 1 28.5 31.9 30.1 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.1 32.7 33.4 34.3 34.9 Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end 7,862 7,918 8,034 7,859 7,894 7,962 7,625 7,779 7,892 7,268 7,480 7,745 Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average 7,917 7,944 8,002 7,905 7,930 7,958 7,759 7,842 7,927 7,446 7,643 7,812 Key metrics and ratios Group net interest margin 2.48% 2.51% 2.54% Cost:income ratio 44.2% 45.8% 48.1% Loan impairment rate 0.17% 0.22% 0.24% Return on tangible equity 1 17.6% 19.2% Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p) 16.6p 18.1p 19.2p Ordinary DPS (p) 10.0p 11.6p 13.0p Buybacks 0 0 0 Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) 1 359p 397p Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio 1, 3 13.1% 14.6% Capital generation pre-distributions 2.48% 2.53% 2.60% 45.5% 46.8% 47.4% 0.21% 0.24% 0.27% 17.9% 18.9% 19.7% 70.9p 73.2p 76.1p 34.3p 36.5p 38.1p 0 67 1,000 383p 391p 418p 12.6% 13.0% 13.2% 2.57% 2.65% 2.83% 42.4% 45.4% 46.6% 0.21% 0.25% 0.27% 18.4% 19.9% 22.1% 78.5p 82.1p 92.0p 39.0p 41.2p 46.0p 1,000 1,800 2,650 422p 432p 470p 13.0% 13.1% 13.5% 1.48% 1.83% 2.30% 2.56% 2.69% 2.88% 40.5% 44.1% 45.4% 0.21% 0.25% 0.30% 18.3% 19.9% 21.7% 83.7p 90.2p 106.4p 43.1p 45.5p 53.0p 1,500 2,100 2,500 456p 472p 525p 12.9% 13.2% 13.6% 2.13% 2.55% 3.00% Interest rate expectations UK base rate (end of period) 3.75% 3.79% 4.00% UK base rate (average for the period) 3.75% 3.76% 3.88% 3.50% 3.86% 4.39% 3.72% 3.80% 4.00% 3.25% 3.65% 4.38% 3.25% 3.68% 4.43% 3.25% 3.61% 4.17% 3.00% 3.59% 4.28% MEMO: Evelyn Partners estimates in 2026 1,4 Income Other operating expenses (including CTA/transaction costs) AUMA 225 253 263 (315) (229) (165) 68.8 70.8 75.0 1 Models reflected in FY'26 consensus include estimates for Evelyn Partners. Some analysts assume consolidation at end Q2 and others in Q3, therefore some Q2'26 metrics are non-meaningful and are not included'. FY'26 guidance excludes Evelyn Partners as per Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement (also see footnote 1 on page 2 of this document). 2 3 businesses reflect balances across Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional. Group includes Central items & other. 3 Guidance per Q1'26 outlook statement, Slide 19, Q1'26 Outlook Statement : "We expect Basel 3.1 to increase RWAs by around £10 billion on 1 January 2027". Consensus estimates for FY'26 RWA and CET1 are pro forma for B3.1 4 implementation on 1 Jan '27. The mean uplift for RWAs from B3.1 implementation is £10bn. 4 For FY'25 Evelyn Partners financials, see Slide 22, FY'25 Management Presentation . NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low income excluding notable items) Models as at 21 May 2026 Quarter Full Year Q2'26E 2026E 2027E 2028E Analysts included in consensus 15 15 15 15 Group 1 Low Average High Net interest income excluding notable items 3,470 3,517 3,545 Non-interest income excluding notable items 850 882 947 Total income excluding all notable items 4,339 4,398 4,454 Low Average High 14,096 14,250 14,529 3,600 3,715 3,902 17,799 17,965 18,252 Low Average High 14,911 15,381 16,327 3,890 4,119 4,302 19,125 19,500 20,457 Low Average High 15,375 16,037 17,348 4,018 4,275 4,434 19,766 20,313 21,730 Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial & Institutional combined Low Average High Net interest income excluding notable items 3,485 3,533 3,607 Non-interest income excluding notable items 843 865 900 Total income excluding all notable items 4,339 4,398 4,450 Low Average High 14,107 14,305 14,560 3,539 3,644 3,755 17,786 17,949 18,243 Low Average High 15,150 15,514 16,327 3,890 4,042 4,107 19,131 19,556 20,357 Low Average High 15,773 16,244 17,414 4,018 4,188 4,253 19,803 20,431 21,586 Analysts included in consensus 13 12 12 12 Analysts included in consensus 13 12 12 12 Central items & other Low Average High Net interest income excluding notable items (67) (13) 0 Non-interest income excluding notable items 0 14 55 Total income excluding all notable items (58) 1 35 Low Average High (80) (32) (4) 19 63 220 5 31 140 Low Average High (120) (44) 0 0 75 220 (6) 32 144 Low Average High (120) (43) 0 0 75 220 (6) 32 144 1 The sum of 'Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial & Institutional combined' and 'Central items & other' does not equal 'Group' as not all analysts provide forecasts of business segments 5 NatWest Group - Post Q1 2026 Consensus Financial Estimates Models as at 21 May 2026 Disclaimer The consensus information has been calculated using average estimates received from research analysts. The opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations, and the consensus information derived there from, are those of the analysts alone and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of NatWest or its management. By presenting the consensus information, NatWest does not endorse or concur with any of such analysts' opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations. NatWest has not verified any of the information it has received and none of NatWest, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers and employees make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, or accept any responsibility for, the accuracy or completeness of the consensus information or otherwise endorse or concur with any of the consensus information. NatWest does not assume any responsibility to update, revise or supplement any information. This consensus summary is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to, nor does it, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments. The NatWest Group Investor Relations Team Claire Kane Director of Investor Relations +44 (0) 7929 803 009 [email protected] Nick Gough Head of Equity Investor Relations +44 (0) 7929 383 731 [email protected] Paul Pybus Head of Debt Investor Relations +44 (0) 7769 161 183 [email protected] Andrew MacLean Equity Investor Relations Lead +44 (0) 7595 248 887 [email protected] Oliver Sherman Equity Investor Relations +44 (0) 7825 921 601 [email protected] Farida Abbasova Equity Investor Relations +44 (0) 7542 313 896 [email protected] Olivia Saddler Equity Investor Relations +44 (0) 7484 407 158 [email protected] 6