National Bank of Canada : It comes in waves (SSA bond supply, that is)

Published April 21, 2026 at 6:40 p.m. UTC

Source: MarketScreener

It comes in waves (SSA bond supply, that is)

By Ethan Currie

April 21, 2026 - (Vol. X, No. 48)

Sentiment remains mixed as markets sift through geopolitical headlines and the first round of 'hard data' following the onset of the Mideast conflict. Despite this, risk appetite has broadly picked up after stepping lower in the initial phase of the war. Earlier in the year, January and February saw plentiful SSA issuance, which was met with equally strong investor demand. That seasonal window came to a close and supply became more muted when issuers strategically stepped back amid less supportive deal conditions in March. As we highlighted last month (here), that pullback in issuance coincided with relative outperformance in SSA credit, even as broader volatility persisted across asset classes. With supply constrained, SSA spreads generally performed well-these credits exhibited lower volatility than corporate counterparts and remained relatively tighter on a G-spread basis.

Now that supply has re-emerged, how have valuations (and demand) held up? TLDR: Quite well. SSA supply tends to come in waves-the biggest of which at the start of the calendar year. While issuance typically remains steady into early spring, an April jump the size of this year's is

Chart 1: March's lull gives way to April's bond supply

SSA gross bond issuance, 7-day rolling sum: 2026 to date vs 2021-25 average

USD bln (equiv)

2021-25 Avg

2026

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

less common (Chart 1). And despite the March slowdown, YTD gross issuance is at its highest level since 2012 (Chart 2), during the latter stages of the European sovereign debt crisis. Importantly, even with a brisker pace of issuance and a sharp pickup this month, deals have been well absorbed. That's reflected in strong oversubscription and pricing through new issue concessions (Chart 3).

At least in recent years (since 2021), larger SSA supply waves have not categorically put pressure on spreads. In fact, there is little observable relationship between elevated supply periods and G-spread performance over the past five years (Chart 4). If you broaden this sample to incorporate times of subdued supply, the correlation is also weak. Whether issuance follows favourable spread conditions, or spreads remain resilient in the face of increased deal volume, the takeaway is the same: the SSA market continues to demonstrate efficiency and broad investor demand. The resilience of this product stands out under varying market conditions, and we view the current environment as supportive for further issuance, particularly if geopolitical de-escalation continues.

Chart 2: Fastest gross issuance pace in SSAs since 2012

All currency gross SSA bond issuance, year-to-date (20-Apr)

USD bln (equiv)

Other EUR USD

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: Based on 39 ticker composite, contact NBC for more details Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: Based on 39 ticker composite, contact NBC for more details

Chart 3: Despite brisk pace, deals absorbed well in primary

Oversubscription and pricing compression of recent SSA USD deals

ratio | bps

Oversubscription

IPT to Pricing

Chart 4: Supply surges ≠ Spread weakness

7-day rolling sum of SSA issuance vs 7-day change in 'Tier 1' G-spread

7D chg in G-spread (bps)

April 2021 - the last time an April supply surge was notable

R² = 0.0977

7D rolling SSA supply

(USD bln)

-1

-2

-3

-4

EIB 3Y

[$4bln]

AIIB 5Y

[$2bln]

DBJJP 5Y

[$1bln]

OMERFT

5Y [$1bln]

ONT 5Y

[$3bln]

BRCOL 5Y

[$5bln]

-5

15 25 35 45 55 65 75

Source: NBC | Note: All USD issues in month of April; IPT to pricing inverted; includes select deals in the SSA / PSE / provincial universe, ranked by oversubscription in this case

Source: NBC, Bloomberg | Note: Based on daily sample since 2021 for points where rolling / weekly sum of issuance is >15bln (plotted on Chart 1); G-spread is a representative 5Y USD IBRD bond constructed by rolling maturities to construct a constant maturity proxy

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