National dwelling prices fell by 0.4% in June, which is the largest monthly decline since December 2022. This follows a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in May (previously recorded as flat).
Housing demand has slowed following 75bps of interest rate rises and higher uncertainty surrounding the Budget's tax changes. Reforms to CGT and negative gearing reduce investor incentives for low yielding/high debt investment in established property.
The slowdown has been led by Sydney and Melbourne, where prices fell 1.2% and 1.0% mom, respectively. The pace of growth across mid-sized capitals has also slowed sharply, further underscored by large downward revisions, particularly for Perth and Brisbane.
Our forecasts anticipate a 2% decline in dwelling prices in the 8 capitals over 2026. That is driven by 6-7% falls in Sydney and Melbourne and material slowing in mid-sized capitals. We see the risks skewed to a larger fall in prices.
Nationally, the median time on market has edged higher to 31 days, with properties selling faster in Perth (13 days) and Brisbane (22 days).
The rental market remains tight, with vacancy rates near record lows at 1.7%. Advertised rents growth is elevated at 5.8% on a 6m annualised basis.
Dwelling starts have lifted since late 2023, led by apartments, but starts continue to outpace completions amid challenging supply conditions. This has kept the construction pipeline elevated, with ~235k dwellings still under construction, around 35% above the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) average.
