Brent oil futures fell as low as $US70 a barrel on 2 July as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded in the wake of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on 17 June.
However, as violence escalated between the US and Iran from 7 July, undermining the MoU, Brent oil futures quickly escalated towards $US100 a barrel as markets increasingly worried about global oil and refined product inventory depletion.
But optimism and pessimism over a US-Iran deal have subsequently seen Brent oil futures drop as low as $US78 a barrel in early August, before rising to current levels of $US95-100 a barrel.
We continue to expect Brent oil futures will trade between $US70-100 a barrel in the second half of 2026 with elevated price volatility.