Watsco (NYSE:WSO) Q3 2021 Earnings Call

0:00 Good morning, and welcome to the Wattsco Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Albert Nahmad, CEO. Please go ahead.

0:36 Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. First, I hope everyone is safe and healthy, given the virus that's going on. But this is Al Nahmad, Chairman and CEO, and with me is A.J. Nahmad, President, our two Executive Vice Presidents, Paul Johnston and Barry Logan, and Rick Gomez, Vice President. Before we start our normal cautionary statement, this conference call has forward-looking statements as defined by SEC laws and regulations that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of these various laws. Open-end results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

1:22 Now, I am pleased to share that Wattsco delivered another record quarter New records were achieved in virtually every performance metric. Earnings per share jumped 31% to a record $3.62 per share on a 32% increase in net income. Sales grew 16%, or nearly $250 million during the quarter, to a record $1,780,000,000. Gross profit increased 29% with growth margins expanding 280 basis points. Operating income increased 50 million or 32% to a record $207 million. Operating margins expanded 100 basis points to a record 11.6%.

2:08 And cash flow for the quarter was a record $238 million. Today's results are all the more positive when considered against last year's record results and in light of the industry-wide supply challenges that are still going on. Our teams throughout all of Wattsco are doing an extraordinary job taking care of customers, and that has made a big difference. I want to say thanks to all of you. We also ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet with virtually no debt and cash for $137 million. This financial strength provides us the flexibility to invest in most any size opportunity.

3:04 Our press release summarizes important fundamentals that are critical to understand as we continue to invest and build further scale in what is a very fragmented $50 billion North American market. An important fundamental is Wasco's geographic coverage and our large number of locations across many markets. The diversity of markets we serve reduces volatility and provides stability during a difficult operating environment, such as the one we are witnessing. Also, our large and growing customer base is increasingly equipped with our state-of-the-art technology that helps our customers grow their business and purchase more from us. Another advantage now and in the future is our offerings of the broadest variety of products and brands in the industry. The depth and diversity of our product offerings should continue to serve us well.

4:00 We're optimistic about current market conditions. Let me say that again. Optimistic about current market conditions and recent trends. And market demand remains strong. And we see signs of improvement in our OEM's ability to help us fulfill that demand. Looking ahead, the industry will experience more change in the years to come as minimum SEER standards rise, that's normally done by the federal government, by the way, and refrigerant changes that take shape in the coming years. And with changes come opportunities. We believe that our long-term focus, our scale, speed to market, relationship with OEMs, Technology offerings position us better than anyone to capitalize on these upcoming changes.

4:55 We are living in unusual times, but could not be more positive and excited about the future of the industry and our role in it. Now let's go on to our Q&A. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, Please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolf Research. Please go ahead. Morning, Nigel. Mr. Coe, your line is open on our end.

5:48 I do. Thank you. Okay, moving on. Our first question is coming from Tommy Mall with Stevens. Please go ahead.

6:00 Morning, Tommy. Morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Sure. You referenced increasing engagement with some of your OEM partners. and an increased ability to help you meet the robust underlying demand. At this point in the year, I wonder if you've started to talk to some of the initiatives for 2022 planning and if so, what if any insight can you give us on those relationships?

6:32 I like that question because all of us in the industry are fighting just to get enough product to continue to meet the demand. But 2022, the best one for that, I think, is Paul Johnston.

6:46 Yeah, first of all, I'd like to say that we're not increasing our conversation with the OEMs. We've been continually communicating with our OEMs and them with us. So the relationship there all during the pandemic and even before the pandemic, we were working with them on product planning and delivery planning and all that. You know, right now what we're looking at in 2022 is – We're trying to straighten the inventories out a bit. What we ended up with was some of our inventories ended up to be a little bit lopsided on indoor versus outdoor type units, so we're working with them trying to balance that out so we can sell complete systems. We've been working with them on what the transition plans obviously are going to be.

7:31 Given that next year is a big year when we're going to be transitioning in 2023 to the – or 2022, and 2023 to the new SEER levels. So it's a full agenda that we have with our OEM partners as far as communicating and planning. With most of them, as you recognize, we're one of their largest customers, if not their largest customer, and so we're important to each other.

8:05 Thank you both. If I could, I wanted to pivot to the customer side of the business for you. How receptive have they been of late to price increases? And I ask that because clearly there's input inflation on the OEM side, presumably in this environment. Your customers are going to be pretty receptive to your passing that through. It would occur to me that if you've got product available there's less concern around pricing, which is going to be pretty well passed through to the end user anyway. But any context you can give us on that dynamic?

8:44 Well, I think your thought process is a good one, but let's see if Paul can fill in the hole there.

8:51 Yeah, we always talk about the equipment. Yes, those are the most recognized price increases that we have. and the dealer contractors have been accepting of them, especially those who are in the replacement business. Perhaps a little more resistance from people who are on the new construction side. But, you know, we've also, they are also experiencing upticks in commodity pricing with copper going up above $4.70 here recently a pound. We're seeing flex stock go up double digit pretty much every three to six months. So a lot of the other products that go into actually installing a unit are going up at the same time. So I think we're all a little bit numb to it, including our contractors, and accepting it and trying to pass it on as best we can, given the timing of how many price increases we've had here in the last 12 to 18 months.

9:50 It doesn't seem to be slowing demand. Our demand is strong.

9:53 No. Appreciate the context. I'll turn it back. The next question is from Steve Volkman with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

10:05 Good morning, Steve. Good morning, guys. Just following up on that last one, Al, are you guys seeing any change in your mix relative to the type of equipment customers are willing to pay for at this point?

10:18 Well, that's a very enlightened question because there is a chip shortage. So we see high-efficiency equipment. demand there, but we're unable to fulfill it given the supply of that product. Paul, do you want to fill in?

10:36 Yeah, that's very true. You know, it takes more hours for an OEM to make a high-efficiency, to make an 18 or 20-seer product. And so the focus has been pretty much on the 16-seer, 15-seer, 14-seer, 13-seer product. So a little bit of a shift there where we're seeing a bump in 16 SEER sales and obviously 14, 13 SEER sales and a small decline in 18, 20 SEER. Having said that, 18, 20 SEER has never been a major portion of the market. And obviously it's something we would like to have as a major portion of the market. And hopefully with the new energy standards, we'll be able to expand the very high efficiency products as a greater percentage of our sales.

11:22 Just to add a thought to that, just so it's clear on the data, what the data says, the high-efficiency mix increased again this quarter. It's almost 11 straight years of quarters where it increased. But that ultra-high efficiency is where the missing link is and did not contribute, but overall high efficiency grew at a faster rate than base efficiency.

11:46 So it almost sounds like as or if, maybe I should say if, the supply chain issues ultimately normalize and we have these kind of sear changes happening in 23, we may actually see a better mix shift going forward. I would agree with that, absolutely.

12:06 But we're definitely going to see a better mix change because of the efficiency going up to 14 here in the north and 15 in the south.

12:13 Which is mandated by the federal government, yeah.

12:16 Yeah, so we're going to see that regardless. Our focus is we really want to make sure that that ultra-high efficiency that Barry refers to grows at a faster rate and becomes a more material piece of the market.

12:31 Understood. Okay, thanks. And then a quick follow-up. I think you mentioned in your prepared release that SG&A spending was a little bit elevated and you expected that to normalize as we go forward. Obviously, gross margin was also very good. Do you also expect gross margin to normalize going forward, or do you think you can kind of hold the rate that we have?

12:56 Well, that's a very perceptive question. Looking into the future. That's my job. Who wants to take on Barry or Paul?

13:09 That sounds like your question.

13:15 Here we go.

13:16 So let's get SG&A first because that's easier to think about. Obviously, everything we've said, and I just want to say this also so it's on the table for the rest of the call. Sales volume in the second quarter was up 29% on a same-store basis, I think, something like that. So this has been an extraordinary summer if you look at things as a combined – Last six months, let's not just talk in quarters. Let's look at our seasonal realities of what we've dealt with. Extraordinary demand, SG&A that needed to deal with a lot of stuff going on in terms of supply chain to make it work. A lot of austerity that came off last year's comparison that is now in this year's numbers.

14:03 And just, again, as I said, drinking through a fire hose over the last six months. SG&A We wanted to highlight some things very specific to SG&A that are big buckets. And the word normalize usually means goes down or declines. Let's put it this way. There's a lot of variable costs that increased. Those costs remain variable and will adjust themselves to whatever the sales volume is over the next 12 months. As Al suggested in the remarks earlier, We're not necessarily seeing a slack in demand as we get out of season right now. In fact, we're seeing increased demand as we're getting out of season from, let's say, recent days. And so SG&A will normalize, but, again, time will tell, and the variable cost should adjust over time.

14:59 Gross profit is a more interesting question. Obviously, I've said this for a career, and we've said this in our comments over many years. Inflation is something that we pass through and pass on. It adds to a gross profit equation and makes more money for us. There's no question of that. We're also doing immense work with technology to improve pricing and margin and to optimize pricing. That doesn't necessarily mean just getting higher margins. That means improving our pricing profile across customers, competitors, products, and so on. There's a benefit this year in that equation, which is only just the beginning of a pricing discussion.

15:46 And I think, you know, Mix also obviously has a benefit, and you heard Paul's comments earlier about Mix maybe looking forward. But that's a big crystal ball to look into, to be honest, and But some of the undercurrent of inflation and mix and technology and incentives and the way we pay salespeople and commission our sales force, all those things are pulling in that direction still. And next year, I'll tell you more when we know more. But that's what I would tell you today.

16:18 All right. Fair enough. Thank you, guys. The next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBank Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

16:28 Hey, good morning, guys. Morning. Hey, so just a phone line on the gross margin. It looks like if I do the math right, the gross margins on the acquisitions are higher than your blended average, and the SGA seems higher on a blended basis. Is there anything, I know like TEC I think is the biggest acquisition contributor, but maybe just speak to those dynamics, you know, those impacts.

16:57 Well, I got to say, Barry will answer that, but this is a $6 billion a year business. And what you're talking about are small relative to the overall in revenue. I can't imagine that that's driving the overall numbers that you perceive. But, Barry, go ahead.

17:20 Yeah, Jeff, I mean, and again, it's very isolated to what we've acquired lately, and yes, the margin, and yes, the cost of doing business is higher. That's unique and eccentric to TEC, and it's part of their legacy and profile of how they go to market. So they've had an exceptional last six months as part of Wansco. They've had an exceptional year coming into this year, and very proud and happy that they're part of Wansco.

17:51 Okay, great. Thanks for all the color on the 21 performance. That was really helpful. Just sticking to the price dynamic, I think you called out 6% increase in average selling price for the year to date. I'm just wondering if that number overall is higher within the context of 3Q, and then if there's any noticeable difference in that 6% between equipment versus the non-equipment. Thanks.

18:23 I'll take a first stab. Barry, do you want to take the second half? But, you know, is there a difference between equipment and non-equipment? Yes. Anything that's commodity-based has an external profile where the pricing fluctuates on a daily, weekly basis. And as I mentioned earlier, things like copper, refrigerant, steel have definitely been on the incline and have gone up faster than, for the last 18 months, have gone up faster than equipment. Equipment has a more slower cadence to it because there has to be an announced period of time before we have a recognized price increase. So normally we get anywhere from 60 to 90 day lead time on the announcement before it's implemented. So it gives us an opportunity to adjust ourselves.

19:11 So timing is not unique to the third quarter or to 2021 so far. The next question is from David Manthe with Baird. Please go ahead. Good morning.

19:30 Thank you. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. So just definitionally, when you're talking about the 6% year-to-date price increase on residential HVAC, is that the typical price mix definition that you've given us historically? Yes, it is, Joe. Yes, it is. Okay. Thank you. And then as far as the increased investment that you outlined, and thanks for doing that and that clarity, is some of that incumbent on the gross margin being elevated here? And, Barry, you noted that some of the variable expenses will obviously naturally flex down if things moderate a bit next year.

20:17 But if gross margin moderates and sales moderate, is this a fluid plan? Do you plan on modifying that investment plan if things moderate a bit next year?

20:36 The answer is of course. This is 673 location managers managing P&Ls. It's 30, 35 superpower presidents running markets. It's a data platform suggesting and telling and reminding and monitoring margins and cost and profitability every single minute of the day. It's incentive systems that gear toward EBIT growth and cash flow production. Culturally, the intent and the obvious culture is profitability growth in responsible ways is what the mission is.

21:26 It may be different in Texas than in Massachusetts next year. It may be different in California than it is in Chicago. So this decentralization and data flow that goes on in markets is how we operate. And when I say of course, it's because all those dynamics get measured and carried out in different ways in different markets. So clearly, all these moving pieces that are going on are different everywhere.

21:55 And so, but culturally, every Friday morning, we spend a few hours together, go through it all together and act and react accordingly. So

22:03 The answer is, of course, there'll be actions and reactions going on as things change. Yeah, got it.

22:12 Okay, and just quickly, as it relates to technology investments or other sort of corporate-level decisions, I know there's not that many of those, but what about those? I mean, those are obviously not controlled by the markets individually. Are those subject to or are those set in stone at this point?

22:29 Yeah, let me deal with that. I agree that that's not controlled the way you stated, but let's have AJ respond to that.

22:37 Yeah, well, as you saw in our release, our investments in technology continue to grow, and that's because we are maturing things that are already in flight, and we're taking on new projects and programs, all with the intent of continually improving and modernizing everything we do, all focused around Thanks very much, guys. The next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

23:31 Please go ahead.

23:32 Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the questions. I was wondering if you could give us your early thoughts on behavior around the potential for pre-buy next year. And I asked the question kind of in the spirit that, you know, folks are programmed for prices to move up. And so is there actually – much logic or much to be gained from distributors wanting to pre-buy into that deficiency change?

24:02 Well, right now the reality is a pre-buy doesn't help anything. We can't get what we want now, and we don't seem to be – we don't see an end to that yet. So we don't even face those pre-buy decisions. What we need now is enough product to meet the demand that we seem to be having at record levels going into the fourth quarter. Will we adjust our pre-buys? Of course we would. We have a lot of data and a lot of software that tells us how to manage our investment and inventory. Right now, it's a scramble.

24:44 You would be interested in pre-buying along maybe historical patterns if the product was available to do so?

24:54 No, I don't think that would be the case. We just want what we have on order. We want to bring it in. Exactly. Al's spot on. You know, I don't see a pre-buy. We don't see a pre-buy coming at us. We want to make sure we get the inventory that we need to meet current demands as well as early part demand. You know, I don't think anybody is looking at carrying a huge amount of inventory into 2022 because there's going to be different government regulations which are going to have different requirements. or where and how you can sell it. So I don't think it's going to be an issue this year.

25:28 Yeah, I was sort of meaning pre-buying in 2022, not right now. But it sounds like the answer is probably the same regardless. Yep. Yeah. And sort of related to that, what percent of your sales now is above, you know, the minimum efficiency standards, you know, across the platform?

25:51 Well, they all have to be. are above minimum.

25:56 Yeah, I'm saying, you know, so you've got 80 or 90%, I would think, at, right? I guess the question is, you know, what's the percent above?

26:07 Above the minimum. That's a good question. Do we have that data available?

26:11 Yeah, it's quite a bit higher than you think. It's, you know, it's higher than 50% is actually above the minimum. Interesting. That is higher than I would have guessed.

26:23 All right, thanks for the call. I appreciate it.

26:25 You've got a lot of other rules that apply to it, you know, such as EPA, you know, on new home construction in order to get your sticker from the EPA, you have to have a higher efficiency product. And there's an awful lot of the 14-seer product that actually goes to 15. I see.

26:44 Interesting. Okay, thank you. Appreciate it. Sure. The next question is from Chris Dankert with Loop Capital. Please go ahead. All right, Chris.

26:52 Hey, morning, Al. Morning, everyone. I guess maybe this one's a little bit more targeted to AJ. You know, you did highlight some new projects, I guess. Anything, you know, specifically you're ready to discuss over at Skunk Works Wattsco yet? Or is there anything new to talk about there?

27:10 You've got about a week. Yeah, exactly.

27:15 Now, you know, Doug, these are all long-term things. You know, we're a long-term company, so We don't need to highlight things that are just in early stage development. I will tell you some of the earlier things that are getting a little bit more mature, which I don't know if we could in this quarter's release, but our On-Call Air, which is our tool to help a contractor sell to their customers, and Credit for Comfort, which is a companion tool to help them sell financing. They're both continuing to grow and very exciting. And customers that are using those tools and really our technology in general continue to be better customers for us, meaning they are stickier, their attrition rates are much lower, and their growth rates are much higher. So all the data shows that these technology investments are paying off and having a nice return.

28:07 Got it. And you've given us some of the numbers in the past. Are you guys willing to comment on kind of what e-commerce growth was in the third quarter here? Yeah, we can give you that, sure. Who's got that number? Barry?

28:19 Rick, anybody? 15%, 16% was the growth in e-commerce for the quarter.

28:24 Damn, Rick, I tried to get you in, but Barry, cut you off. Oh, sorry.

28:28 Good

28:32 deal. Well, thanks so much, guys. Appreciate it. The next question is from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

28:41 Morning, Ryan. Hey, morning, everyone. So I think it was Al, maybe you mentioned that supply chain is going to get better in the fourth quarter. Is that all of your equipment OEs, or are certain OEMs doing better than others?

28:55 Let me say that it's not gotten better just yet. And when I say that, I'm talking about all of them. We're hoping it will get better in the fourth quarter. But as I said earlier, the demand is so high now that it's not easy for them to catch up. And it's all of them. There's not one that's better than the other. I mean, as you know, we're probably the biggest customer for all of them that we represent their brands. No, I would still say it's still catch up. I don't see any solutions to the supply chain yet. that were optimistic.

29:41 Okay. And I don't know if you mentioned this, but, you know, did you leave revenue on the table, you think, this quarter? Oh, sure. Because you just didn't have, okay, probably hard to quantify, but material or? Oh, yeah.

29:56 Yeah. Okay. Did we take a shot at that, Paul? I don't remember. Let's not speculate. I'd rather not speculate.

30:02 Pure speculation, you know. If you listen to the salesman, it's, you know. It's a lot higher than it is when you listen to the data. It's a way.

30:14 The OEMs are running flat out. They're doing the best they can. I'm talking about all of them that we buy from. I think we have, besides the three major equipment OEMs, we have numerous other OEMs. They're doing the best they can. Have they caught up? Not even close. Will we see some Improvement as the quarter proceeds? I think so.

30:42 Okay. That's helpful. And then, you know, I'm noticing there's more private equity interest in HVAC distribution lately, and I'm just curious, are you seeing multiples rise in space, and is there more competition for deals?

30:57 Well, that question answers itself. Sure, when private equity gets involved, there is more competition. Is it affecting how we think about our strategy? We will not chase pricing because we're in for the long term. I don't know how long they're going to be in it in terms of valuations for businesses. So, you know, there are a large number of distributors. What's our latest count, Barry, more or less?

31:26 In terms of acquisitions, 65.

31:27 No, no, no. Available distributors, independent distributors.

31:32 How many do you have?

31:34 1,300, yeah. 1,300. So there's room for... Lots of stuff for us. Okay. Helpful. Thanks, guys. The next question is from Steve Tusa with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

31:48 Hello, Steve. Good morning, guys. How's your dad doing? How's my dad doing? Yeah, he's a watcher shareholder, you tell me.

32:00 Yeah, that's since like 2004. So, you know, I guess he's doing fine. So on price, you guys booked 12% ASP in the second quarter, 2% in the first quarter. I think you're saying it's up 6% year to date. Can you just give us what the, I mean, given the seasonality, I guess we could kind of do the math, but what was the third quarter, you know, ASP for U.S. Resi year over year?

32:33 Very consistent, Steve, with the overall 6%.

32:37 So why did that decel? I know I'm missing something on kind of like the comps. Most guys are thinking things continue to accelerate with all these price increases coming through. Any particular reason why that decelerated quarter to quarter?

32:55 I'm not sure in season things change very much in terms of price in the course of the season. There are some late quarter price increases that flow in, I think, September that will flow into the fourth quarter. But in season, Steve, there's not much variation. And, you know, with the kind of volatility that went on, I'm not going to surmise much over the last 90 days just given what was going on.

33:21 We sense that there will be more price increases in the near future.

33:25 We know. Right. So that would suggest that your U.S. resi volume was down a little bit in the quarter, right?

33:33 It was up slightly.

33:34 Did you mean in unit?

33:35 No. Yeah, unit volume. It was not down. It was up slightly,

33:40 yeah. Most of our major resi suppliers, the price increase that they had in the third quarter was September. Got it. So it really didn't get impacted.

33:50 Do you think you guys took market share in the quarter? I mean, if you guys took market share, that means the industry was down in the quarter, right?

34:03 You really don't know for the quarter until all the data comes out. I think we said this on the last call. The shipment data versus movement data has been so out of sorts here for about the last 12 months. I think it's thrown all of our models off. What I'd like to say, we gained market share. Well, you know, August shipments, as you know, were down, what, 2.2%. July was down, what, 5.6%. So we weren't down. So we must have gained market share, but I don't think that's a hollow statement.

34:43 Yeah, and then so for these price increases that are coming through, should we expect price to accelerate here in the fourth quarter? I mean, can you get to, you know, kind of a, you know, back to that kind of high single double-digit level for the fourth quarter?

34:58 No idea. No, I really can't predict that. Yeah. The actual demand is in the fourth quarter. We don't know what that's going to be.

35:08 Got it. And then one last one just on inventories. They were flat quarter to quarter. Hard to tell what would be kind of volume and what would be, you know, some sort of inflation in there. Usually it's down a bit seasonally. Is there – you know, I'm trying to reconcile that with kind of the supply constraints that are out there because you guys look like you're pretty good on inventory. How do you feel your own inventory situation is?

35:33 Well, Barry gave you a clue on that in terms of – Thank you very much.

36:01 Our version of inventory turns, which we can calculate using monthly averages. It's hard for you all to do that. But the monthly average inventory turn as of September 30th was identical to the prior 12 months. So all the investment level, if you will, is the same. The mix of that investment is what we're talking about that needs to improve and so on. But, Steve, there's not a great story there. Is there some inflation? Yes. There's some shortages? Yes. there's a lot of product being moved around, as we mentioned in the press release, in terms of our logistics to handle customer needs, and all that balances out and should help the inventory position as we go into next year.

36:45 Yeah, okay.

36:46 That's still dependent on normalcy, which means normal lead times or normal feeling in terms of order flow, and we're not there yet.

36:56 Right, right, right. Well, congrats on executing continually here in a pretty challenging environment. Thanks for the info.

37:03 Thank you. Thank you. Please excuse any mispronunciation. The next question is from Jeff Zawinski from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Good morning.

37:13 Well, at least I know who I am.

37:18 You should make him spell it without looking at me.

37:21 Well, it was good. I knew it would take myself off mute as soon as he started on the pronunciation comment. So good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess maybe first question on some of the availability stuff. I know we've kind of trodden this path a lot already, but... Even though it's not a critical market to Wattsco, we are transitioning into furnaces, and you guys do have some exposure there in a few regions. Does that availability look any different than the AC market? I mean, obviously the lines aren't the same, the components aren't fungible. Any improvement just by virtue of turning on furnaces this year?

37:59 Yeah. Furnaces are an important part of Wattsco. Let's put it that way, especially with the acquisitions that we've made you know, over the last several years with Pierce Phelps and TEC and NNS Supply and Dasco, etc. Furnaces right now, you know, what we're seeing there is kind of an inversion a little bit to the air conditioning. We need more of the what we call a standard furnace right now. And there seems to be some shortage on standard furnaces where we're getting some of the high-end furnaces. Just got off a call with one of our groups on furnaces and and a manufacturer, and we're trying to supplement that and make sure we get them in. They may be a little bit later than normal. Normally we're able to do a pre-season with the contractors to pre-sell furnaces into the marketplace, and this year it looks like that may be a little bit of a delay coming up with a pre-season program.

38:54 Got it. And then just on the refrigerant transition, I guess the phase out on R22, I think some of the other OEMs have described it as, you know, sort of de facto $1,000 off the system because it's cost avoidance on having to recharge the system that that worked on or had a leak. I guess maybe a couple questions off that. What is sort of the pricing on R22 today, and how does that work in the homeowner's advantage? And I feel like if we would have had this conversation, I don't know, seven, eight years ago, Recycling refrigerant was something that was, you know, a little bit more of a topical moment in time. Like, isn't that helping at all? So just maybe speak to, like, how much of these upgrades or replacement is driven by the refrigerant piece and maybe some of the numbers behind that, if you wouldn't mind.

39:48 Well, you know, the number of R22 units is decreasing, obviously, every year. And, you know, my best estimate is, you know, it's probably – probably 20%, 25% of what it was when we did the transition. So there's fewer units out there that we have to service. But the other side of R22 is that there were drop-in replacements from both DuPont as well as from Arkema or Chemours and Arkema that were able to work around any sort of higher prices or shortages in R22. We continue to see R22 sales as just a raw gas, you know, on the residential side of these continue to move down.

40:35 Okay, so the actual, like, homeowner economics haven't changed that much because of these drop-ins?

40:41 No, it really hasn't. And if you think back, you know, to how many years it's been since we went with, you know, 410 across the board, you know, a lot of those units have become replacement vehicles. And as we move forward into, obviously, into the phase down of, of the refrigerants that we currently are using, the 410s and such, I think there'll be a slight acceleration on the remaining balance of those 22 units coming forward to be replaced. That's a guess. That's a hope.

41:15 Thanks, Bob. Again, if you have a question, please press star then 1. The next question is from Nigel Coe with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

41:26 Good morning. Good morning. Hi, Al. Sorry about earlier. Don't know what happened there, but thank you. Of course, all my questions have been answered at this point, so let's see what's remaining. Just wanted to clarify the point on pricing. You mentioned you get 60-90 days notice from the OEM on price increases. Does that allow you a chance to maybe get ahead of that and therefore sort of mismatch between price you realize from your customers versus what you pay out?

42:00 Well, that's interesting. It's 60 to 90 days. It's not 69

42:06 days. Okay, 69 days, that's right.

42:07 Answer the question, though, Paul.

42:09 Yeah, and yes, of course, we can move ahead of that.

42:13 Okay, okay. I just want to clear that up. And then on commercial refrigeration, I mean, when you call it sales, let's not spend too much time here, but it was up 27%. I'd be curious what drove that actually strength.

42:31 All yours, Paul.

42:32 Oh, okay. You know, generally what drove that is a lot of it has to do with restaurants, supply, ice machines, reach-in coolers, that type of thing was really driving that progress. Okay. Rebounding is open. Okay. So, okay, that makes total sense.

42:54 And then just a quick one, if I may, on, you know, The other HVAC products, outgrew HVAC equipment. Was there, because of the availability issues, was there a slight shift towards repair versus replace in the quarter because you just couldn't get product out? Has anybody studied that mix?

43:16 No, I have not. Barry? I can take a quick look. I mean, first, it is about I've said this for a long time, too. There's over 100 product lines and 600 vendors in that bucket, anything from duct tape to sunglasses to refrigerant to copper tubing and so on. And replacement parts is a component of that. You know, replacement parts does not account for the increase because it's a single-digit increase in parts during the quarter. So it's everything else and it's across, you know, again, 100 different product lines. So a measure of inflation going on, as Paul suggested, in some of what I'll call the building materials in there, which would be flex duct, copper tubing, and other products. It's also been a mission of our business units to grow that part of our business at as much higher margin. That's part of the consequence of the higher margin across Watsco as well in the quarter.

44:15 So there's not one story there, Nigel, and the story is not repair versus replace.

44:22 Okay. Okay. I didn't know you sold sunglasses, so that's something I've done today, so thanks a lot.

44:26 Hey, they're very stylish. I know you should look at them.

44:30 I'll pop in and have a look. Thanks a lot. It's safety glasses, so safety first, right? Right. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Albert Nahmad for any closing remarks.

44:47 Well, thanks again for your interest in our company. We hope that you'll join us for more of these calls and follow us as we progress scaling the company. Thanks again. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.