David Hobbs
Executive Chairman at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
Replay available
Kodiak Field Presentation hosted by Pantheon Resources (LSE:PANR) on Investor Meet Company, held 2023-09-14.

On 6ix: 6ix.com/event/pantheon-resources-plc-panr-kodiak-field-presentation
Automated transcript · Written by software from the replay's audio. It can mishear names and figures; the replay is the record.
0:02 Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC Investor Presentation. Given the significant attendance on today's call, the company will not be able to answer every question received during the meeting itself. However, the company can review your questions submitted, and we'll publish those responses where it's appropriate to do so. Before we begin, we'd like to submit the following poll, and I'm sure
0:33 the company will be most grateful for your participation. And I'd now like to hand over to Executive Chairman, David Hobbs. Good afternoon, sir. Afternoon to everyone. Good morning if you're in a time zone where it's morning. It's a great pleasure to have an opportunity to talk through the results of The Netherlands Civil report on Kodiak and to provide some additional context around it and update you on operations. You'll see that there are a lot of presenters today because we wanted to make sure we covered everything that needs to be covered. And so without further ado, let's move on in. Please take a moment to read the disclaimer. You can read it in your own time as the presentation has been posted on our website.
1:20 So that will be available there. And so we've got a pretty full team to address a wide range of topics. We will take the opportunity to finish addressing the questions that we first started dealing with when we announced the pivot on strategy that has been ongoing for the last couple of months. So today, we'll hopefully cover everything that was originally asked. We will do our best to answer any other questions that come up during the course of today's session. But as told, we can't guarantee that we'll have enough time. Since we've made a lot of progress, of course, the last couple of months, it's worth just restating to remind everyone what our strategic goal is. That is to deliver sustainable market recognition of $5 to $10 per barrel of recoverable marketable liquids by 2028 at the minimum possible dilution of value to existing shareholders.
2:22 And that's what we're on track to do and the steps that we've taken over the last two or three months have moved us forward in that regard. This webinar will update you on further progress towards that goal. Our agenda today will be to address the results of the Netherlands Sewell And Associates report. But in addition to that, Bob and Gerry will be sharing the potential upsides from further appraisal that key off The Netherlands Civil numbers. Bob will be talking about the characterization of the fluids, and then Michael talking about the test in the LK2 well of the shelf margin deltaic zone and progress towards that. Tony Beilman will be talking about the development planning work.
3:14 And then between the team, we will address the five contingencies that were referenced in The Netherlands tour report, which is which are the steps that will be necessary to reclassify from resources to reserves in due course. And then finally, Jay and I will update you on progress against some of the milestones and we'll move into the Q and A. So Bob, can I hand it over to you to talk about The Netherlands SAUL report?
3:45 Thanks, David. And welcome, everybody. Look. Before we talk about the upside, which we'll get into in a minute, I just wanna review the the results of The Netherlands SOUL report. And, you know, this was you know, it took us a year to get to this. You know, it's working with Schlumberger. Our team working with Schlumberger. Sorry. SLB and Netherlands. And a lot of work has gone into this, and it's a it's it's a a small table, but those are big numbers. And just to, you know, highlight it again, we've got nearly 1,000,000,000 barrels of total marketable liquids in the two c. And and our three c estimate, we have almost approximately 2,000,000,000 barrels of total marketable liquids.
4:35 This is a great result for us. And, you know, we we should, you know, regard this as, you know, the result of a lot of work, a lot of effort amongst a huge number of geoscientists and engineers to get to this point. Next slide, please.
4:57 And, again, you know, what I'd like to to do is, you know, is highlight what is actually going on in in the reservoir because, you know, that report discusses oil in place sorry, oil numbers, NGLs, condensates, and gas. And but I I'd like to take you through a very simple story of actually what is happening in the reservoir. So all the information we have, all the test data we have tells us that we have an oil reservoir, a light oil reservoir. The charts you see here are from GeoMark. It says that the source rocks are in the oil generating window.
5:44 The that we have light oil, that all the gas we have is that's in you know, that we've seen is associated gas, which means it's dissolved gas in the reservoir. The complication becomes slightly post this statement is what happens when we are actually begin testing the well and we drop the the the pressure in in the reservoir below what's called bubble point, which is, you know, the dissolved gas is coming out of solution. That will be addressed by our engineers in a few slides down the line here, and they'll be discussing what's going on after we drop low bubble point, and we're testing the well. But simple story, we have black oil, associated gas, oil the the source rocks are in the oil generating window.
6:42 Next slide. Again, this is a picture. This is this is a picture of of every single test that we've made, you know, on all our reservoirs. All of them show the same thing. We have black oil, light oil between 35 to 38, 39 API oil, and, again, the gas is associated gas.
7:12 Next. So I'm gonna turn it over to Jerry. And what we're gonna do now is discuss, you know, the the appraisal upside on Kodiak
7:27 through drilling as we go and start appraising this and drilling into what we call the chimney, the the recent acreage we picked up in the last lease sale. So I'm gonna turn it over to Jerry now. Alright. Alright. Thanks, Bob. What I wanna talk about here is a model that we've constructed to extrapolate reservoir from known subsurface control at Tolita A, Theta West, up dip into the chimney and in the west part of the Kodiak field. Our dataset our subsurface dataset is really dominated by two data points, Tolita and Theta West. Of those two, Tolita A has the denser by far data set. It's got a full set of LWD, wireline logs, FMI, and also sidewall core samples. Theta West, because of hole conditions, were restricted to LWD logs.
8:20 So that, I think, imparts somewhat of a bias on our subsurface description, and what we wanna do is counter that bias by forecasting what prosties and permeabilities, how they should behave going up dip. So the next slide. So this model is really based on simple geological principles. It's built on compaction, and the principle is simply that porosity decreases with burial depth. So as we go up dip from Toletha A up to the Northwest, we're getting shallower structurally, modern day structure, but also in the maximum burial depth. There's
8:58 been less section eroded off up there, so we get a double benefit there. So average porosity will increase from about 9% at Talitha A. This is across the gross interval of the Kodiak Fan Complex up to over 12, almost 13% up in the northwest part of the chimney. So if you can go to the next slide.
9:18 So I think more importantly, what we can do in this exercise, I'll I'll show you in a minute, is we can calculate the percentage of porosity that's greater than the conventional reservoir cutoff of point one millidarcie. This is a standard cutoff that's employed to determine conventional versus unconventional, and we can calculate what percentage of the gross rock volume is greater than that cutoff. So now I think it's worth spending a few minutes walking through how this is done. This is a series of animations. So, yeah, the first one now, we're gonna look at porosity and permeability relationships. So we need three things. We need to be able to relate porosity to permeability.
10:06 We need a d max, and we need a line, a slope that compaction slope. How do we do that? Well, first, we'll do the in the yellow oval, that's the porosity permeability relationship. We look at
10:22 prop perhaps our closest analog just to the Northwest, melting Meltwater, and Tarn. We we also have more local samples at pipeline in Toledo. And those those give us a cutoff of about 12% porosity, which would translate into 0.1 millidarcys. So we have that. Then we can go to a more subregional relationship here that's plotting d max versus porosity. And you can see the increased porosity to to it points on the left there with decreasing burial depth. So if we can construct a line like that locally at Kodiak and we can reconstruct d max, then we can calculate for every point in the Kodiak fan what the porosity distribution is, and hence, what the where that how much of that rock is above 0.1 millidarcy.
11:18 So to do that, to get d max, we go to the map in the middle that's based on published at USGS data. And what that shows is how much of the section has been wrote it off. So it's missing section that's not present now that we need to add to the modern day depth to restore to d max. And that variation is pretty significant. It's about 15 to 2,500 feet difference from north to south. So we wanna get the slope. So the way we do this now, the the technique is to plot up all the log data points at Toledo and Theta West. So that's not really a vertical line. It's a whole it's all of the proxy log points plotted up at their d max.
12:04 And so we connect the means. That's the red line there, and that's our slope. So with that slope and a d max, we can calculate anywhere what the average prosty is, and we can calculate what the distribution of those would be. So here's how that looks in practice. On the top left, that shows the actual distributions for Tolitha in red and theta west in blue. So that's just a histogram in one percentage point bins for each well. And then in the center, what we're showing is the
12:42 theta west actual. It's the blue the blue curve. And then the red one is Talitha using this model, moving it up dip to the theta west d max. And you can see it's almost a perfect match in terms of average porosity. So with that same principle, we can just we could go ahead and calculate porosity everywhere in the Kodiak Fatton complex. So what this the plots on the bottom show is that while we're doing this, remember, we're projecting every single point in the porosity log along that slope, the decompaction slope. At theta west, only about less than 5% of the gross interval is is greater than 12% porosity.
13:28 It's just that little green on the bottom. On the next plot to the right, if we project that up along the slope, the compaction slope, we get to the Theta West location where about 24% of the prosties samples are greater than 24%. Sorry. 12%. And then as we move up to what we'll call the Theta West location, which was on the previous slide, then we're getting up to about 37% of prosty. So you could see the procedure. It's like an integration of the distribution curves as we move these prosty points up dip. And so here's what that looks like. We can take a collection of points
14:07 that span the depth interval of the Kodiak fan complex from deepest to shallowest. The average porosity, so just the average thinking of those histograms, it's the average porosity is linear as you'd expect using that linear function. But the percentage of porosity, the percentage of gross rock volume that's greater than the 12% or point one millidarcy is nonlinear, and it's steeply increasing as we go up dip due to shallower structure, but also less Dmax. So as we get up to the northwesterly part, much of the chimney, we're at more than 50% of the reservoir should be considered conventional or more than 0.1 millidarcys.
14:53 So that's that's a summary. I think with this, we'll have great
14:58 implications on on recoverability as we move up dip from the known subsurface control at Tolis and Theta West. So I think we'll turn that over to Bob. So just to just make a comment about Jerry's work, What we're gonna see as we, you know, cross crossover and start appraising the chimney is we're we're gonna see, you know, better reservoir deliverability, which is gonna give us, you know, probably higher recovery factors. And and in the case of what Jerry's describing, you know, an increase in
15:41 volumetrics as well in place volumetrics because we're gonna have better porosities and permeabilities. This is really a placeholder for work done by Roger Young. We plan to have Roger present his work, in detail, but he he had some medical issues that he had to take care of, and he's he's been out of commission for several weeks. So I'm gonna do a poor man's job and summarize Roger's work. And later on, we will we will have a a bit of a webinar or so Roger can actually show this.
16:24 So second factor that's going to impact, and in this case, it's gonna impact reservoir our understanding about reservoir deliverability and recovery is the fact that the reservoir we're looking at in the Theta West fan in the Kodiak, the Kodiak discovery, is is a very it's thin bedded, laminated sand sand and shales, which means that when we when we examine the the data in detail where when we have it, such as, like, an FMI or a whole core, what we see is centimeter centimeter scale beds.
17:10 Now our logging tools that we have, so the, you know, the MWD and the all the electric logs tools that we have are actually gonna be averaging a lot of that data over a foot or two feet. So, basically, we're kinda smearing and averaging out the information in these thin beds. Now that's not gonna affect our gross rock volumes, but what Roger's been able to do see going back and looking at the whole core data pipeline, look sidewall cores, and looking at the log data is we are not seeing the higher porosity permeability beds. They're being smeared into an average background, which just basically means that, you know, what we can expect to see is almost two to five porosity units above this average background that we're getting in the conventional logs and the wireline logging tools.
18:25 And as we go up dip to theta west, we're we expect to see in the higher porosity zones up to 15 to 20% porosity range. And permeability is much better of point five millidarc. The only way we're gonna be able to see all this is take whole core. So it's it's incumbent in us when we're drilling our next well that it's not just a test of flow rates, but we need to collect significant amount of data to verify what we've we've been talking about over the last, you know, few slides. And, you know, getting this whole core data is is gonna be hugely important for our reservoir characterization.
19:18 But this this one slide here is telling us, the work that Jerry's Jerry has also done, is that we're we can expect to see better recovery factors and better reservoir performance as we move to the north into the chimney.
19:37 And I think I turned it back over to you guys. And Oh, great. Thanks. Okay. Not quite sure who was using. So the next thing we want to address are the five contingencies from the NSAI report on Kodiak. And in this section, you will hear from Michael Duncan, and Michael, welcome back. The last time you saw him, he was one day removed from from some very serious
20:16 knee surgery. So welcome back to the walking, Michael. Also hear to be back. From Pat Gowen and Tony Weilman. So in Section one, technical data that demonstrate sufficient rates and volumes to sustain economic viability, and we've got questions about that. Michael Duncan will do that. The field development plan and regulatory permits, that will be Pat Galvin. Viable gas and water utilization and disposal methods, Tony Baumann will take care of that. Our ability to market our oil and our NGLs and condensates, no one better than Pat Gowan to take on that task. And then David and I will comment on all of the work that we've been really doing the last really two months to fund the complete development project.
21:09 And as David said earlier, with the least amount of dilution for our
21:14 current shareholders. So with that, I will turn it over to Michael. Thank you, Jay. Happy to be here a little further removed from surgery, as you mentioned, and recovering appropriately. Glad to be walking again. But, yeah, looking forward, obviously, our next our next steps that we've discussed and and the things we're really excited about operationally are showing our our path towards towards the the true economic viability of this of these reservoirs. Upcoming is a shelf margin test, and that is a quest to understand
21:51 new fracking techniques. It's a quest to understand the PBT data in the reservoir a little better. And and as we go, you know, a lot of this a lot of this determination is based on the pressures that we see. And so it's another opportunity for a a piece of the puzzle in our virgin reservoir pressure campaign. And so those three commence soon.
22:15 We are applying a new fracture technique to the shelf margin. Tony might discuss that a little more, but it's it's finer proppant. It's thinner fluid. It's it's the next step, as Tony's mentioned, in our frag generations and and more correlative to what you see present day in, say, Permian or other places. So we're applying that frac to the shelf margin delta test.
22:39 To give a quick operational update on what's happening, we still believe we're on schedule for to start in September. So we're really at the fun part right now for the camp analogy. We're all packing our bags and making sure we have all our gear before we head up there. And equipment's descending on the slope. People are beginning to descend on the slope. We have boots on the ground with the early operations, and so that's happening right now.
23:09 In parallel to that, we do have ongoing analysis with. We're looking to future development plans and modeling how these how these new frac designs will will propagate in the development. So looking forward to that. And as Bob said, of course, operationally, whole cores are gonna be very significant to our future.
23:35 Bob, I apologize for this. I might pass this to you really quick and talk over to Tony really quick to talk about the recombination of fluids. Tony or Bob, would you guys like to take this one? Sure. I I think as everybody knows, the reservoir fluids that we're dealing here, unlike water, is highly compressible. So a clear understanding as we talked about earlier, Bob mentioned and Michael mentioned was having some PVT analysis done as we move forward. For those who don't know, PV analysis really just means pressure, volume, and temperature analysis. With these compressible fluids, the volume is highly dependent on the pressure and the temperature that fluid. Changes in pressure and temperature from the reservoir moving forward.
24:29 That's a that's a big consideration, and we wanna make sure that we understand that. And as as Bob mentioned earlier, on the outcave number two, GeoMark was Geomark Laboratories was was retained to to start that process. And they and they looked at the the fluids that came out of the alkade two and and kinda gave us some good reservoir numbers to work with. Then we took those numbers and that data and provided that to Schlumberger who had a active simulation model to where they could model what they what they were seeing and take that fluid and put it back to a reservoir condition. And what they what the conclusion of both GeoMark and Slumberjade is we are, as Bob mentioned, a solution gas dried reservoir.
25:16 We're not sitting in a gas reservoir. It's just a solution gas reservoir.
25:21 We're currently producing below the bubble point. And and so those are the numbers that we're seeing. And based on that, this this slide here shows you some of the snap views of what slumber jade's modeling did. And and based off that analysis, they matched the GOR, which was a big number we needed to match of what we were seeing off the alkane too. So we're pretty confident we have a good handle on what the what the reservoir is looking like. And then moving forward with the test that we have on the alkane number two, we're hoping that we'll have a good understanding of what's going on in the SMD formation as well. And before we move on, would you just maybe give a little more color on the new the frac versus the the frac we put on the horizontal portion that we're planning now, Tony? Sure. So what we've done different on the frac job, we've we've done a little bit more selective perfume
26:21 perforation selections. Then we've changed the fluid type of fluids and the chemical that that we're adding to it a little bit better to help with the flowback. And then lastly, we've moved to a 100 mesh sand. We've gotten away from the thirty fifty, which we believe kinda hurt us a little bit on the on the sand flowback as well as and then we've also doubled the rate. I think we're somewhere around 400,000 pounds and and about 11,000 gallons going into this this stage. So that's that's that's kinda becoming our our horizontal model, and so we've kinda taken it to to put it in in this in this vertical section. And incidentally, Slumberjack did a pretty detailed analysis of all the fracs that we've done, and this is kinda sitting in the middle of where they recommend that we we sit as well. And what we're trying to do is determine the efficiency of this new frac design. That's correct. We need to find out what the frac types are doing and how the the the reservoir's behaving with these new jobs. It's not really
27:30 idea to maximize production. We're probably gonna flow this back slowly so we can get a better feel for how the fluid's behaving. We're gonna run some bottom hole pressure data so we can see what the reservoir pressure looks like. Great. Thanks. Pat, over to you.
27:52 Thank you, David. I've been asked to just give an overview of what permitting will look like going into a development project. And, really, this is fairly standard for any project on the North Slope, but we happen to have the the minimum aspect of it because of our location.
28:11 The primary driver is going to be the unit plan of of of development, which comes from the Department of Natural Resources done in conjunction with a plan of operations, and that will be sort of the the overview across the entire development plan. Then because we're going to initially have pipelines that will connect our facility to the hot tap location, we're going to need to get a right of way for those pipeline locations along whichever route,
28:44 is best determined for for those. The hot tap itself is going to be approved by the state regulatory commission. That location you can see here on the slide is located really within sight lines, a a little around a mile from the Alcade pad, that that we're proposing. And then finally, we got an air quality permit requirement that would be part of any development that has emissions. We're tending to minimize those air emissions, so we don't expect the air quality permitting to be significantly onerous.
29:21 The the one thing about the slide to to note is really what's not on this list. Typically, historically, with any North Slope activity, you would see a wetland development permit or wetland fill permit from the Corps of Engineers. Because of the recent SACA decision from the US Supreme Court,
29:40 that has changed the entire outlook for, wetland permitting on the North Slope. Previously, we would have expected nearly all of the land that we would be developing would be subject to, a wetland determination and a wetland permit. With the SACAT decision and the new, initial proposed regulatory changes, it's actually flipped it around to where we expect very minimal, designated wetlands, and likely, we can avoid a federal permit requirement, across most of our development acreage, which significantly changes the overall permitting expectation and may even avoid the the environmental impact statement process that most other projects have to go through. So we're we're watching that one closely as that develops and the wetland rules become more known and applicable, and we're we're seeing significantly positive movement on that.
30:37 And I think that's that's the primary overview right now. Yeah. Back to you, Sure. As Michael mentioned, we were working with SlumberTA or SLB, and it's getting hard to switch back and forth. So but, anyway, their work is is taking forward the data that we had. They're modeling the best development practice for the development plan that we can come up with and how we can maximize
31:07 both the the production reserve and minimize the cost of development. And we hope to have that done the first quarter of or quarter two of of next year. We've actually engaged them, and we've already started that process. So, hopefully, we'll and then we'll get that data done. They're they're taking the data and putting in a dynamic model, which is really handy because we can watch it as, you know, you can simulate different different sensitivities that'll help address all those questions that are
31:37 that are coming, which includes how we're gonna handle the gas, how we're gonna handle the water, and so forth. So really excited about the report coming out. And handling the gas and water is critical because we're gonna we're gonna have we're gonna have a lot of a lot of excess gas, and we will produce water throughout the life of the region. Yeah. Water is not unexpected. The gas is not unexpected, but, you know, it's a good thing. It's kind of a double edged sword. The gas is providing some very valuable liquids that are really enhancing us, but we still gotta get rid of
32:08 the gas. And a lot of energy. A lot of energy. So we'll be able to and we're pretty excited about the plan that's gonna come out as well. Great. Fine. Thanks. Yeah. So in terms of getting our product to market, it's important to note, as we've covered in previous webinars, that our entire marketable liquid stream, including the NGLs and the condensates, are all going to go with the oil down the TransAlaska pipeline. And as we've noted, TransAlaska pipeline is a common carrier pipeline, which means it's open access regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, to allow for, new shippers like us to to bring our to market. The NGLs will be transported along with the crude and and included in our stream and in the valuation of our stream, which, gives us the opportunity for, uplift associated with our higher value, NGLs that are going in with the oil.
33:12 As we've covered in previous webinars, the entire stream is evaluated and broken down to its individual components. Each of those components is then priced separately, and there is an adjustment on basically what you put into the pipeline versus what you get out depending upon the value of those individual components in your stream in comparison to the others. Our initial analysis indicates that,
33:39 really, from a conservative standpoint, we're looking at about a 90%, of the current stream value, which means that in the end, if we put in a 100 barrels at the input to the pipeline at our at our hot tap, we would, right now, anticipate getting out about 90 barrels at the terminus when we take it out. Brent?
34:06 Okay. So where are we in terms of going toward our goal of between 5 and $10 of of value for PANTHEON based on our resource estimates. And going from left to right, you can see we're starting to shade some of the areas. That means those that we have started to have progress on. You can and the big thing, of course, that we haven't talked about today is how do we finance
34:51 the $350,000,000 that we've talked about or David has talked about in the past. But in reality, we don't really need to raise all of that $350,000,000 today, and we're pretty certain that we won't need to raise all of it in the future from our shareholders. And that is what we have the team here in Houston this week working for. We've been meeting with investment bank the resource groups of investment bankers. We've met with the service providers to talk about how can we partner
35:31 with this great project and reduce the amount of capital that's required. And the amount of capital that's truly required to get to first significant production is about $120,000,000 not the $350,000,000 that's the headline number. So that's what we're moving toward. We're working
35:57 very diligently on that. We've had some great meetings. We will have some more. In addition, as you know, we have a data room that's open. We have some interest in companies coming and looking at into our data room. So we are moving on all fronts to finance what's ahead of us.
36:23 And as you've heard, we have the NSAI report on Hakun that probably will spill over into the first quarter of next year as they get very busy toward the end of the year doing end of year reserve reports for others. We have the ALKARE two reentry of the shelf margins I'll take test coming up. That's an exciting time for us.
36:49 And all of the work that's going on behind the scenes technically and with moving toward potential U. S. Listing and getting a permit to put our crude or our liquids into the TransAlaska pipeline. David, do you like to add? Sure. Yes. No, thanks, Gary. And just to reiterate, every conversation that we're having is about how do we reduce the call on equity because that will end up being the balancing item. And so talking with lenders about what they will need to see before we're able to draw on borrowing facilities.
37:34 The $350,000,000 don't forget, was based on 300,000,000 associated with the initial production and 50,000,000 associated with the further appraisal of Kodiak. And so that 50 will be invested in the timeline that leads us towards the FID in 2028, as mentioned, and based on how we can assemble the project to ensure trouble free operations and to gather all the data that we need along that way. So coming back to the 300,000,000 which is the residual for bringing us to cash self sufficiency, that is the point at which we don't require any additional capital, whether it be debt, whether it's equity, whether it's mezzanine, whether it's vendor financing, whatever it may be.
38:22 And so drawing back from that, we anticipate that there's a need for around $120,000,000 that won't be fundable from reserve based lending by the time that it's been spent. That, if you recall, was made up of a very conservative assumption of $20,000,000 for the hot tap, dollars 20,000,000 for the upgrade to facilities to add to the existing facility that we already have, adding a chilling unit. And I know every time I say $20,000,000 worth of facilities, the team looks at me and says, man, you don't trust us. We know we can do it a hell of a lot cheaper than that. But we want to make sure that we plan conservatively because if you ever need a dollar, that dollar always costs you more than you expect it to, whereas if you plan for it, and I don't need to call on money, that ends up being much cheaper money.
39:17 And then although we had a pathway and we've described the pathway down to $13,000,000 per development well in today's terms, obviously, escalation over time because this is a ten and twenty year drilling program. But we're assuming that those initial wells are going to come in at above that budget. And so we need to make sure that we've properly funded ourselves for that. And of course, there's some overhead to keep the business running to maintain the engineering studies and development planning and regulatory planning. And so that's where we get to the total of 120. Every conversation we're having is based around how can our partners in this development help reduce that quantity down to something. Ultimately, it may be possible to get it to zero. There's absolutely no promise, but our goal is driving towards zero.
40:06 And every night, Justin, Jay, and I go to bed, our separate beds. But but thinking thinking the same thought, which is how do we make sure that we can raise the funds on terms that ensure the minimum dilution to our shareholders. So some of the things that we've done over the course of the last few months, We've identified where our office is going to be in Houston. In fact, it's right next door to where we're sitting today. We're we're borrowing an office altogether here in order to move forward with this webinar using the conference facility there. We have begun the process of those financing discussions.
40:59 And in order to reduce the supply of equity or lose equity into the market, you saw we did the deal with IBGL. We are working on a daily basis to ensure that the ability to bet against the stock because there is an assumption of supply of stock is an unsafe assumption to be made. And I would just like to the market obviously reacted very favorably to that, we believe, because of the share prices. We've moved up smartly. That's right. We're not I mean, steps we're taking, you know, there's a lot of boring stuff going on. They're all small steps that lead to a point. And as I said in an earlier webinar, when people said, gosh, 2028 is a long time to wait for for the value you're talking about.
41:48 When we get to the point at which that value becomes inevitable, we expect that to be reflected in the market sooner. And that's why we're doing all the things to put in place the steps necessary to deliver that goal in 2028. The advisers are at work expected to report shortly on the tax implications of either a U. S. Or a dual listing or a change in domicile of the company. And we absolutely recognize that there are implications to different groups of shareholders of the decision we take, which is why we're not trying to take that decision lightly and make sure that we've considered all of the angles on that. So in summary, we will arrive at the point in late twenty twenty five, we hope, and at worst, early twenty twenty six, where we're in a position to take FID on the Abund development with all the permits we require from the state, with all the financing sorted out. And that's the point at which resources will be classifiable as reserves if all of those other contingencies are addressed.
42:55 And to move forward during that period of buildup of production to make sure that we've got the Kodiak FID in 2028 and to continue building up to what we think is going to be one of the most exciting projects the last couple of decades onshore in The United States. And I just like to add that that many of the meetings we've had this week have been surprisingly positive. So for for first or second meetings, very positive. And and and in in no small measure, but it calls back being able to bring the memorial report Yeah. To the table. It means instead of just being the latest guys to show up in Houston saying we've got a great project, the the the right people are opening the door and and and engaging in a serious way.
43:45 Let's hand it back to Paul, and then David, thank you so much and to the rest of the team from PANTHEON RESOURCES. Ladies and please do continue to submit your questions just using the q and a tab situated on the right hand corner of your screen. But just while the team take a few moments to review the questions you submitted already, I'd like to remind you that a recording of this presentation along with a copy of the slides and the published Q and A can be accessed via your Investor Meet company dashboard. David, if I may, if I may invite you just to open up the Q and A tab, it's on the right hand corner of your screen. You'll see questions from investors. Firstly, thank you to everybody for your engagement. And if I may, David, if I ask you to just read out the question and give responses, obviously, where it's appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up from you at the end. Thanks very much, indeed. So the first one, is there any correlation between the outgoing two upcoming flow tests with the eighty eight Energy asset they're planning to test this winter? Assuming both PANTHEON and eighty eight Energy flow well and commercial rate, is there any chance of a merger of both companies or JV or asset acquisition?
44:45 Well, let me just handle the first bit first and then ask Bob to comment. But the first bit first is we're not going to talk about any potential transaction or speculate about that, whether with eighty eight Energy or any other. But we have got a very good working relationship with eighty eight Energy involved. Let me hand that over to you, Scott. Yeah. I mean yeah. Thanks, David. We do have a very good work relationship with eighty eight Energy, and, you know, we've over the last several months, we've been working together, very collegial relationship, you know, sharing data. Obviously, I can't, you know, express any opinion at all on their data at Hickory. We're under confidentiality.
45:34 But, you know, as a general statement, you know, we're we're working towards helping them in any way possible to get a positive result down there. Anything positive that happens down there is is is good for us. So we're we're certainly, you know, working, you know, you know, is giving as much information as we can to to make that happen. So the next question is, what kind of results from the upcoming SMD testing would unequivocally demonstrate to industry participants and potential following partners that the SMDslash ALKARE are unquestionably a resounding commercial success, leaving no room for doubt. Well, the trite answer to that is there is no result that could possibly mean no room for doubt. But in in simple terms, if we can improve the quality of data, demonstrate the efficiency of the frac and the utility of the revised updated frac design, that will only add to the the perception of the likelihood of success. What I can tell you is that the the perception that it is uncertain is more widely held among the investor industry community.
46:48 We're certainly not finding that people are in doubt about the likelihood of the viability of the asset in the conversations that we're having. Well, let me just add also that we're not planning for a for a headline slower. That's not the purpose of the reentry and the test. As as Tony and Michael have said, we're we're about data gathering and determining the efficiency of the new. Frac design. And we need to remember that our intent is to understand the reservoir fluid and how they're behaving and how the frac performs so we can plant future frac cups. And and that's really the main driver behind what we're doing. Yeah. Next one is you've been talking about having an asset quote for some time. It'd be very positive in conjunction with an institutional investor roadshow in The US. Is that something that's progressing? Dustin, do you want to just respond to that? Yeah. Sure, Doug. I think you touched upon a few of those points previously, but there's two parts to that question. The first is the listing, and the second is is the road show.
47:50 Addressing the first on a listing, like any relationship, it's important to get it right and to make those right decisions. So we're meeting as many groups as we can to choose the group that's that's relevant, that believes in our story, that we believe got the capability not only on the equity market side, investment banking side, but also project finance and those kinds of things. And and as David, I think you mentioned, having that Netherlands report in our hand has really increased our credibility going through any of those meetings, and and we've certainly been taken very, very seriously. So that's that's that. There's a question about which exchange would this on, NASDAQ, NYSE, which level on those exchanges, or do we perhaps migrate up to the London Stock Exchange main board? Dual list, we're considering all those things, and and we've appointed, you know, very serious firm of tax advisers to to assist us with our structuring to make sure we get that right because, as everybody's heard, the size of the price here if we're right, the size of the price here is enormous, and it's very, very important to to make those decisions and and plan for them appropriately.
48:54 On the second part of the question, on on the institutional roadshow, the answer is we haven't done one yet, but we will be doing it shortly. And the reason for that is, obviously, we wanted to get The Netherlands to report in our back pocket. And also, we wanted to put this webinar into the public market to allow us to have more serious conversations with all those people. So the answer is we're doing a non deal roadshow pretty soon. It'll be not a one off, but we give a a program that we repeat from at a regular interval to just build up those relationships. And, yeah, our our broker in in London, Canaccord, is is appearing for that at the moment. Thanks. The hedge fund is short. Your stock insides. Does this worry you? Nah. The bears on your stock say the oil is not commercially recoverable. Can you give a percentage of probability on your oil being commercial?
49:43 Again, we're not in the business of offering percentages. You can read into certainly my view on the basis of my investment terms of the company. The advisers we're working with are no doubt as to the commerciality of it, but nothing is ever a certainty in this business. The IERs and dynamic modeling, what else will be then on the civil and SLV report support other than a farm out process? When do you currently anticipate the additional reports being finished and their conclusion shared by RNS? Well, certainly, we've already talked about the likely delivery for the ABOON reports.
50:30 Tony, you wanna just say a word or two about how we'll be using the SLV work in development planning? I know you've already mentioned it. As as I mentioned, you know, part of the project that we have ongoing with is to do a project development plan, which includes how we're gonna handle all of the streams and stuff. So so that is still anticipated. The planned conclusion should be around the first part of the second quarter of next year. Great. Bob, think this one's for you. The information released today appears so far to be confusing regarding what was found above the Fetal West 1 lower Basin floor fan. Was this done on purpose because of the 2022 lease sale? Yes. The answer, it is it is confusing.
51:18 I mean, the what we've seen in the Upper Basin before fan is, you know, one set of data from the VAS is telling us, you know, something about it, and our log analysis is telling us something slightly different. What we found in all our tests is when there's a correlation, one to one correlation between the VAS and the log data, we've had success. Everything we've tested when that happens has been, you know, positive. At this stage, we're still doing we're still analyzing that and trying to understand why we're seeing these differences. And, eventually, somewhere in the future appraisal of, you know, Theta West, we'll we're gonna be banging into the upper basin floor fan again and, hopefully, you know, maybe maybe do a test in it. But right now, we, you know, we're we we don't have plans to to target any well for it.
52:20 So, Bob, I'll combine a couple. How are ECES predictions performing? And if the three three d attributes at the the West 1 location predicted the upper base for PANTHEON, we had to come pay what lessons were done. You sort of addressed the the second half there already would go. So in terms of the so in terms of esize, again, I think their their predictions have been pretty much spot on. You know, oops, you know, particularly at Theta West, particularly, you know, at two, we've had, you know, very, very good correlation. It the we we certainly can see light oil in reservoir. Okay.
53:07 So we've talked about why you've you've addressed the weather via some petrophic physical loads of consistent and predicting outcome pay. The upper basin floor plan has not gone away. It is part of future appraisal, but it is not part of the resource that we're describing as for the time being. Correct. The orientation of the new chimney leases suggests a slip apron fan, like, or force regression. Can that introduce some seismic lines to define prospect limits of the new resource act? I think I should take that question. And I'll say I'll I'll I'll answer it by saying, Brett, at this time, we're not gonna do that. I'm assuming that must be from Brett.
53:54 So I think we'll pass on that. The possible sandwich reservoir in the huge shale has different oil than the lower basin floor fan. Any implications for development? Again, Bob, if you want to deal with that. So I I I think we we we're again, this this this has to do with the upper basin the upper basin floor fan. You know, again, what we're seeing here, we are seeing differences in there in terms of the hydrocarbon content or the presence of reservoir. So it it it will have implications when, you know, when when we appraise it in the future. To you. The river is East Of The Chimney leases. Will this make ice road building or development more challenging?
54:46 I guess that's probably my question. Should I take that one, David? Yeah. Yeah. I guess the most most correct answer is yes. It'll make it more challenging. If the implication is will it make it so that we can't develop it, the answer is no. That it won't it won't preclude us from from further appraising or developing it. Right. Can I I actually Can I make a just interject a statement there about that chimney acreage and just to highlight something about it again? And and that's the work that we've done that Jerry's is Jerry's done, the work that Roger has done. All of that is is highlighting that that acreage, you know, will have substantial amount of the reservoir is gonna be what we, you know, be considered conventional reservoir.
55:38 Substantial amount, you know, we're gonna have better, you know, better recovery factors, and and, you know, it's gonna impact the you know, particularly Jerry's work is gonna have an impact on the oil oil in place, hydrocarbons in place. So it is it is a very cool piece of acreage. The Thanks, Bob. Is there only a small section of feed west 900 foot of paves, both rate and frac, even weather and operational constraints does management believe the world could have produced at near commercial rates from this vertical wellbore had more section to be tested? I'm guessing Michael, do you do you wanna address that? Sure.
56:26 Yes. There is viability of the concept that we could have connected to more rock. You know, we're always dealing with timing and resource constraints in the winter. As far as what we would've hit had we had we stimulated more rock, I I I don't know that it's appropriate to speculate towards that. But but, yes, there's absolutely viability to the concept that with with time and resources and without some of the constraints of winter ice operations in one season And with even with some of our new frac approaches, that there's a lot more rock we could have stimulated and and a lot of a lot of excitement for what that could mean. Thanks. Bob, can you comment on the implications of eighty eight Energy's testing program for PANTHEON's projects, and should any of the resources be unitized with eighty eight Energy?
57:20 Part part well, I'm I'm gonna pass on the unitization part and just answer that, again, you know, what you know, a positive result there will will have a positive implication for us. And, again, we're working towards that in you know, to to help as much as we can to ensure that happens. Thanks. Next question was around the $350,000,000. I think we dealt with that in the the webinar. Another question. In a recent interview, you said the memo of the civil report would allow us to have high value conversations. Are they ongoing? We talked about it definitely causes doors to be opened less skeptically than otherwise might have been. And we are talking with a number of people, industry finance, service organizations, regulators.
58:16 The key point is that it provides that validation of the development case that we've been talking about. That means that counterparties see it as being a good investment of their time to engage with us. And indeed, we are having high value conversations with a number of different organizations. On the resource table slide, the discussions focus on oil and NGLs, but the residual gas resource is not discussed in the valuation sense. Why is that? And is there any value to be created from the gas? Let me just give a quick answer to that, which is that our base case and all our economic analysis and and the argument for the resource being commercially developable lie upon three basic foundations. So first is that the fluids are the same across the entirety of the the resource base, even though there's reason to believe that we will see proportionately less gas in in other locations in our acreage. The second is that the reservoir rock is all as poor as the Alkade 2 zone of interest in Camping Alkade 2. That is by all measures, the lowest quality rock we have in our developments.
59:32 And so we are absolutely confident that if we can economically develop those rocks, then everything else is going to be proportionately more valuable and more commercially attractive. The third tenet is that we will have to reinject all of the gas and water that we produce, the water into aquifers, not into the reservoir, the gas back into the reservoir. And we have allowed for one injection well for every three production wells that we have. You can add that up over the 2,000 or so wells that we would expect to have as part of this development. And that tells you that we're going to be investing 5,000,000,000 or $6,000,000,000 over the course of the next ten and twenty years to handle gas injection.
1:00:21 There are other options for handling that, not least of which is to take that gas to the north and building a pipeline to where gas injection is needed and where gas injection is easier may well represent an optimization that we haven't even begun to factor, but that will be part of the development planning work that Tony and Michael are undertaking with SLB. Furthermore, should there become a gas offtake route, and there are in the public domain discussions about gas offtake from the North Slope, whether to an LNG plant on the North Slope itself or an LNG plant down in Mckiskey on the South Coast. And of course, that would materially alter the economic outlook. So that, I think, in simple terms is what the gas means and the opportunity for us. It's all upside. Yeah.
1:01:18 And how accurate or confidence percentages are PANTHEON with the veracity extrapolations? Are there any key assumptions? Bob, do you or Jerry want to take that? Well, I'll I'll take that one and say, you know, so far our predictions from Talitha to Theta West looks pretty good. The the the geologic model that Jerry Jerry is actually talking to is, you know, pretty standard stuff of you know, as you as you go deeper, your porosities and perm you know, and permeabilities go down. So if we go shallower in the other direction, which is what we're continuing to do from drilling to Litha to Theta West to Theta West to the location. We're gonna continue going up dip.
1:02:06 We certainly expect the porosities and permeabilities to improve. So Maybe just add add something to that. The the the the model I showed was based solely on compaction. We also expect as we go up to the north and west that we should see improved reservoir phase use development as well as we get closer to the sediment source. But that has that's not shown in the numbers that you saw today. And all of your data really is is based on empirical data. So it's just an extrapolation of empirical data. Yeah. Just, again, a very straightforward application of prosty versus depth relationship. Correct. But I think the key point is this is not a unique hypothesis based on PANTHEON's acreage or PANTHEON's activities.
1:02:56 This is just generally well accepted geotechnical analysis. Correct. Kodiak looks compelling. Current commentary is that we won't be drilling this for five years given the size and scale of this field and the current economics. Are you sure this isn't going to drill for so long? The answer is that Kodiak, we will be getting to as quickly as we can get the relevant development consents. And, of course, moving away from the Dalton Highway requires additional work than just putting pads alongside the Dalton Highway. So the answer is once we've got to the point of having development consents and financing in place and cash self sufficiency, we will have a portfolio of some 2,000 development locations.
1:03:45 But in terms of economic optimization, whatever one does, it will be to choose the next highest value opportunity for deploying capital. And so our current plan says, yes, we start off alongside the highway developing a boon and then we move gradually and we get to Kodiak in due course. The answer is as soon as we have consent for that, then Kodiak enters the portfolio of investment opportunities, and we optimize to maximize value, you know, in terms of the risk value added for every dollar invested. We we certainly are gonna be we're certainly gonna be appraising, you know, Kodiak, you know, sooner than Oh, sooner than that. Yes. Yeah. Prior to 2028, we'll have Yeah. We're gonna be appraising this very as soon as we can.
1:04:33 Will the upper the CPI put more detail on commerciality in comparison to the Kodiak CPR? The simple answer is that the initial work on the development economics will be done in conjunction with SLB as part of the contract we've led to them. And then in due course, as we remove contingencies related with the assets as noted in our earlier discussion, then it will make sense for an independent expert to opine on the value. And of course, if we need that in relation to financing, then then, of course, we will do that. But for the time being, we're seeking to spend the minimum amount of money to move the project forward as far as possible. And every step we're taking, the question we ask ourselves is, does this investment of effort, of time, of money move us nearer to our objective of delivering $5 to $10 per barrel, nearer to the objective of becoming financially self sufficient so that we become a price maker, not a price taker? If the answer is it doesn't move us there, then we don't do it. And if it does move us in that direction, then we do do it.
1:05:39 Does the gas and solution make the Alpey Reservoir an unlikely target in the future? No, the gas and solution has positives as well as negatives in terms of supplying energy for development. And in any case, the gas delivers around about 100 barrels per million cubic feet, and that adds to the economic attractiveness of development. So yes, we see the allocated zone of interest and the other horizons in the shelf margin delta, which make up the upcoming field, will be attractive propositions. Do any of the management have any personal financial requirements as they did last year that could lead to a sale of shares in the now small or options?
1:06:30 I'm not aware of any member of the executive team having personal financial requirements nor would I expect to ask them to declare them on a webinar with other people. But all directors are subject to the shared leading code that we have for for PANTHEON senior management, and will be handled through all the regular processes. But we're unaware of anyone wanting to sell, and and I would be surprised if anyone wanted to sell. Certainly, I can answer myself. No. The impending IR for, would it include the alkade deep as well as the original alkade anomaly? Bob, you're you're probably best placed to talk about the scope for for the initial and then subsequent.
1:07:21 The answer the answer is what it's gonna have is the alkade anomaly, alkade alkade deep, and the shelf margin deltaic. So it's sorry. The alkade anomaly and alkade deep. That's what the the the next thing from Netherlands will be. We it won't it won't include the shelf margin they'll take because they'll be still evaluating that from the test. So the first thing out is is ALKADE and the ALKADE. Thanks. Tony, I think this one's for you. You mentioned 2,000 to 3,000 cubic feet per barrel earlier. You've indicated 500 in the slide today. Can you just explain?
1:08:07 It's it's an artifact of how the analysis is done, but but go ahead. Absolutely. As, again, that slide came from slumber drilling, and that was calculating where the reservoir stood at a saturation point. If you ever recall, I mentioned that we were producing and the reservoir was below the bubble point. So that so that number is reflective of what the reservoir would be at its bubble point. For that modeling, Slumberjack determined the bubble point to be somewhere around 4,500 to 4,700 pounds. So that number reflected to what it would be if the reservoir was at 47 45, 4,700 pounds. And in fairness to Tony, just before we started, Tony said, we picked up the that slide from SLB.
1:08:53 Yeah. But you but someone's gonna be confused by that. And I said, it's too late. But the presentation has been uploaded, You may have to explain it. So thank you. Thank you. And and we actually believe the reservoir is slightly below. Yeah. So that, you know, that comp that makes it even more complex. Yeah. So final one that we've got here. Do the team see any engineering risks in reinjecting gas into a relatively tight reservoir? Tony, do you wanna see do I Say that question again. Do you see engineering risks in re injecting gas into relatively tight reservoirs? I do not see the risk as far as reinjecting. Obviously, we produced quite a bit out of the alkane number two.
1:09:43 But I think what'll happen is you mentioned, David, we'll probably have a combination of reinjection. We may have to take some of that to some of the more permeable areas of the reservoir, but that's part of the model that'll that'll tell us what we what we need to do with it. So that's part of the task that Summer Jay has been given to It'll typically be a horsepower issue. It will be a horsepower. Yeah. It's it's it's more an economic question than it is an engineering question. That's correct. Thanks very much. Listen, I'm gonna hand it back to Mark. That's great, David, and to the whole team. Thank you very much indeed for your engagement, and thank you once again to all the investors for your questions and your engagement. And David, if any further questions do come in, obviously, we'll make those available, and we can add any responses to the platform if it's appropriate to do so.
1:10:30 I know investor feedback, particularly with the number of investors on today's call, will be important to you, and I'll shortly redirect those on the call to give you their thoughts and their expectations. But, David, if I may, before doing so, if I could just hand back just for a couple of closing comments, and then I'll redirect investors for feedback. Thanks. Presented to you today has been closing out the process that's been going on for two or three months where we said we would sweep up all of the historical questions that have been asked prior to other webinars. And going forward, we will continue to use the Q and A function in relation to these webinars as we have anything to update.
1:11:15 Anything that's price sensitive will be released through an RNS as you would expect. The steps we've taken, none of them have been large transformative flashy steps that would cause any kind of rerating. They are things that we need to do both in the eyes of the industry, potential partners, potential providers of funding and service providers in order for the project to be treated with the seriousness that we treated. We have no doubt as a Board that we embarked on the right course of action. We hope that confidence will build over time among investors and that you'll come along with us on the journey. But what you've seen is that we're taking thoughtful steps in relation to financing to ensure that we are not the wrong side of the curve in terms of needing to access funds from a position of weakness and instead to build a position of strength. And we will continue that work on an ongoing basis. We'll plan conservatively, and we will make sure that we have all the pieces in place to deliver on the plans that we set out.
1:12:28 Just as we said that we had anticipated mobilizing the All American rig during September, there's work going on, but we will only put the rig on-site at the point that everything is available. And that right now looks like it will be next week during the final week of September as we thought it would be. In terms of when we will drill the next appraisal well on Phoebe West in that that further update location within the cardiac field. That will happen again when we've got all the right pieces assembled to make sure that we gather the data that we need that moves the development forward. So I'll just leave you with a thank you for joining us for this webinar. Don't hesitate if you have any questions that didn't have an opportunity to be asked here, then contact at PANTHEON RESOURCES dot COM is the place to send them to. We will ensure that we respond to anything with you as quickly as as we're able to. We will, at a minimum, sweep up questions and respond to people at least on a weekly basis.
1:13:37 And I look forward to addressing you from Houston once the US Embassy in London has completed the visa process. And I'm I'm led to understand that should be in early November, but the team is getting together here on a regular basis already. Thanks very much, and and over to you, Paul. That's great. Thank you very much indeed to David and to the team from PANTHEON RESOURCES. Ladies and gentlemen, please could I ask you not to close this session as we'll now automatically redirect you for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the company can better understand your views and expectations. This only take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure it'll be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation. Good evening to you all.
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Executive Chairman at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
CEO at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
Technical Director at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
Senior Vice President, Engineering at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
General Counsel at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
Vice President, Operations at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC
Adviser at PANTHEON RESOURCES PLC