Lords Group Trading (LSE:LORD) — Investor Presentation

0:01 Morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the LORDS GROUP TRADING PLC Investor Presentation. Of your screen. Please just simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company will review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it's appropriate to do so and needs to be available via your Investor Meet company dashboard.

0:33 I would now like to hand you over to CEO, Shankar Patel. Good morning, sir. Good morning, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today in our h one twenty three results presentation. The agenda is on your screens. I will present an overview followed by a financial review by my colleague, Chris Day, our CFO and COO. We will then split a strategy update between ourselves, and I'll conclude with an outlook, followed by a q and a. The overview of our performance in h one twenty three, the highlights are on screen. And to call out, we have continued the momentum with strategic targets well on track and with tremendous growth opportunities whilst recognizing that there are challenging market conditions.

1:26 First and foremost is my gratitude to our eight ninety five colleagues who are customer focused, and that proposition has enabled our market outperformance. The credit, the tremendous credit goes to them. We were also delighted with our record performance with half year results in line with our expectations. And we're continuing our progression towards our EBITDA margin of 7.5% in the medium term. The performance that we have got for h one twenty three, we believe, is is an outperformance of the market. However, despite that outperformance, we are not immune to the impacts of the macro trading environment.

2:11 Hence, we have revised our full year targets. We're pleased to have announced seven new locations added to the network in good markets through organic and acquisition expansion strategy. Ultimately, we're still confident that our growth strategy based on consolidation, product grade extension and branch expansion will hold true given that LORDS remains less than 1% of a very large £55,000,000,000 market. On the next page, we are we have the investment case. We've always termed ourselves and continue to do so as a leading high growth distributor of building materials in The UK. You see six blocks, and I won't go through each of them, highlighting our investment case, but reaffirm that we have a unique customer first proposition.

3:04 Central to that is customer service that is delivered through engaged Colony, and that is fundamental to our business and to our differentiated customer service. We also have recognizable local and regional leadership as well as brands, and we continue to invest in these. The combination of the above three points creates loyal long term customer relationships. The other parts of our our investment case, which I'll call out, is the fact that we have a value creative m and a history, very successful one. There are plenty of independent merchants between a 2 and £100,000,000 turnover that hold 40% of the market and are prime for consolidation. It's, again, which we will talk about the Aloe acquisition that we made recently, and that fits within our our consolidation strategy.

3:53 We also maintain ourselves to be an attractive buyer for family businesses because we provide good continuity and development to the businesses that we acquire. We have a good track record of discipline in acquiring businesses at the four to six multiple range of EBITDA and that most of our acquisitions are earnings accretive, if not in the immediate, but in the next period. They always perform

4:19 and increase our earnings. We've made 15 acquisitions in the last five years, delivering 20 plus return on investment. I'd like to also point out the other blocks of substantial organic and margin accretive growth. We're constantly seeking out new markets and customers via new store rollouts of our existing brands. We have previously spoken about our Mr. Central Heating and George's line brands. They both have an opportunity to grow through new store rollouts. We have an accelerating digital capability that creates new repeat customers. We mix digital, so online and offline infrastructure to make sure that the customer repeatedly deals with us in whichever way they want to, either online or in store or via the telephone or via email. It's a customer proposition that we feel really cements loyalty by being able to give them multiple ways in in in in how they can transact with us.

5:21 And we're constantly increasing the share of our customer wallet through marketing new products, and we'll talk about one particular area of product growth, which is renewables. And that is we're growing, and the penetration of decarbonized products actually also drives margin expansion. The final box, which I'll call out, is is our track record. We are recognized as industry leaders, and we're aligned with our shareholders by significant management majority shareholder. The experience that the management has is over two hundred years in the industry. And as as the CEO, has led the group since 1992 and during three previous economic downturns.

6:07 And the next slide, I'll hand over to Chris to provide a financial review. Good morning, everybody. So I think we present here a very strong half year set of numbers. As we work through the table, you'll see some clear outperformance against our peer group in the sector. Revenue totaled $222,600,000 so 3.9%. Growth in in in on a total basis. And adjusted EBITDA of 15,100,000, up 6.1% half year on half year. The continuation of margin progression, which is one of our strategic initiatives, and and we've got various levers that we'll talk you through as we go through the presentation in terms of how we're doing that, that lifted the EBITDA margin despite the climate and despite inflationary pressures from 6.6% to 6.8%.

7:04 And then at an operating profit level, an 11.6% increase taking us to 8,100,000. As you then work through from from operating profits to adjusted profit before tax, you can see 7,700,000 and adjusted earnings per share at 3.39p. That is a setback year on year of but largely reflective of interest rate and corporation tax impacts as you work through that P and L. Dividend per share remains strong and progressive in line with our policy, matching last year's number at basis. Free cash flow, we'll talk about later as we work through the slides.

7:51 So focusing initially on merchanting, another strong half year, another record half year for this division. Revenue at a 109,400,000 from a 105.9 in in the previous year, so 3.3% growth. You can see on a like for like basis, that's a 5.1% decline. But but what we're very much focused on is making sure that we're taking profitable work, mindful of the environment, mindful of competitive pricing decisions and mindful of inflation. Our trading is based on driving profitable EBITDA growth. And so we're willing to trade a little bit of like for like for that momentum in the EBITDA performance. As you drop down, you can see a 10.4% increase in our merchanting division in the half year to 8,500,000.

8:42 And for those that were with us the full year or certainly this time last year, we spoke about the fact we've seen some margin pressures this time last year, but we expected them to rebound partially. And that's what these results showed, that 0.4% uptick in merchanting EBITDA margin is 7.7%. Transactions or acquisitions that there are four in in this division that landed through 2022 and and the first half of twenty three is before LOA and LOA is the fifth. They're all performing in line with expectations when integrated down to earnings accretive.

9:24 In Plumbing and Heating, relatively similar position to merchanting. Kind of, we think, again, a solid first half despite the prevailing trading environment. Revenue of 4.5%, so 113,200,000 four point five percent total growth and 3.8% decline on a like for like basis. Adjusted EBITDA marginally moving up to 6,600,000 which I think is strong result in this market at 1.9%. And you can then see a slight step back in margin of 5.8% in Plumbing and Heating. I would context that with we've made significant progression in that EBITDA margin in Plumbing and Heating over the last two years. So for us, we're we're comfortable with that. We think it it reflects some of the trading decisions that we've made and and and believe it's the right mix that ultimately has yielded EBITDA growth.

10:22 And then pleasingly, we're we're we're delighted to announce that we've opened the next central heating in Edinburgh since we since we shared that initiative and and the long term ambition over the next five years is to get to 14 new locations. This is this is location two since we set that target following West Brom last year. And we're we're really confident that Edinburgh further prove the investment case, and then it will allow us to start to accelerate the rollout over the next couple of years. Mister Century Eating has has a has a great opportunity. So if we can land 14 new locations, we expect them to deliver double digit EBITDA margin, and the return on investment is is very strong because they're relatively small boxes lie on CapEx and no or very little account customers. So very little trade debtors, very little cash deployed in in that regard, which helps the return.

11:20 In terms of working capital before we'll cover this before we go to the free cash flow. You laid out really clearly in the in the table, I think, and and hopefully easy for people to to understand. We we have two dynamics in our h one '23 numbers. Firstly, last year, we had the industry wide oil supply shortages. That has effectively took the supply chain from famine to feast as as it corrected and resolved itself at the very end of last year and into the new year. And that that has kind of flowed into our stock profile and ultimately our paid we have more paid up stock as of June that would be normal. That will then wind over the next couple of months and then return to normal. It's just a phase in point.

12:08 The second and and large relevant in the working capital in in the trade and other payables sits seasonality. This is this is consistent. Hence, I've I've shown h one twenty one. What we have in p and h is effectively forward cash flow model. So simply, if you if you park stock for a second, our creditors are larger than our debtors. And in plumbing and heating, the seasonality, we're busier in the winter than we are in the summer. And therefore, you will always get a seasonal movement at half year, but you

12:37 get that forward cash flow reduces ever so slightly and then comes back again through the winter. You can see that in h one twenty three. You can see that in h one twenty one. It's not visible in h one twenty two because of the industry wide wide supply shortages that severely disrupted the working capital movements that you would typically expect to see.

13:03 So on the free cash flow slide, I think kind of having explained the working capital, the the the other key points to call out would be CapEx. You can see 4,300,000 outflow in h one. Two point two of that includes we've made a strategic purchase of a freehold in near Heathrow for our George Lyons civils brand. That was announced at the beginning of the year, effectively a 2,200,000 down payment in the half year '23, followed by the full consideration later into h '2 next year in July. So if you take that out, 4.3 on an underlying basis is 2.1, and that sits very comparably with previous years and and guidance. So in terms of our strategic update, we're going to focus on our product range expansion and our

14:03 locations as well as acquisitions. So in terms of product range expansion, the renewables range is something that we've called out before as an area that we will be investing in and expanding our capability. Sales momentum continues in this range with positive customer response to the extended product range. That shows itself in a revenue growth of 75% in H1 'twenty three in the overall renewables category, which consists not only of air source heat pumps, but also controls underfloor heating, air conditioning and electric boilers. We believe that demand for energy efficient technology driven products will continue to increase whilst they're off a small base, energy prices and government greenish initiatives will lead to a growing market, and we are uniquely positioned in this growing market because we have the distribution channels, we have the merchanting as well as the distribution and consumer channels to be able to meet the required demand.

15:04 We're also very dedicated in providing an in house existing network to be able to supply these products. We have strong supplier relationships, and we have invested in in in people who are experts in this particular field. The products are margin accretive, and therefore, we should see some good organic opportunities coming through as this market starts to expand. The next case study is a recent acquisition of Chilton Timber. It's a business based in Hamilton, North Of Central London. It's a single site specialist timber merchant. Sales of 2,600,000 and 250,000 of EBITDA prior to the acquisition in April 2023. It fits very well and is fully integrated into our LORDS merchanting network, but it really enables its product range expansion to our wider customer base wider customer base right across all of our other location. So that specialist range that Chilton has, it allows some of the other locations to grow its customer base as well as take a greater share of each customer's wallet.

16:20 In terms of discipline, we acquired this business on a 3.2 completion multiple, net of excess cash, and there are contingent targets based on EBITDA growth.

16:30 And thus far, it is performing in line with our expectations. The other case study is Beckinsfield. We've previously also highlighted Beckinsfield. We're very proud of what's been achieved here. This is a four acre site with substantial market catchment. Beckinsville is one of the most affluent areas in The UK. We acquired this business in 2017 when it was delivering revenues of $2,500,000 marginally loss making, and represented a significant turnaround project. Over a five year period in our ownership, we have transformed this site by our three piece investment across people, plant and premises. And we've also increased the product range significantly. In the heavyside range, we've extended timber, insulation, dry lining, paving, roofing and drainage.

17:20 And in the light side, we've added a plumbing and heating showroom. We've added decorating, iron mongering, paint,

17:27 bathrooms, tools, and fixings. So it's a it's a typical LORDS turnaround where we've increased the product range. We've invested in the people. We've invested in the plant, invested in the premises, and and are now seeing the benefits of that through the highly empowered management team led by an excellent branch managers, and that revenues have grown to 10,000,000, a 344% increase with adjusted EBITDA of 1,000,000 in full year '22. So a great success story for us. Followed by another turnaround, which is LORDING PLC. This is a single site general merchant located in West London that we acquired in August 2021 for $600,000 of consideration. It was truly a turnaround acquisition, the business that had been in this location for many years, but failing rapidly.

18:18 We have installed

18:21 a highly empowered management team have grown the revenue by 70% in a very short period of time and adjusted EBITDA by 400% for h one twenty three period. Once again, the sites benefits from our three piece investment with new dedicated trade counters to enable the extended product range. A key part of our strategy is to extend the product range. And here, we've extended the product range by adding a plumbing and heating counter, by refurbishing and adding a architectural high and hungry offering, an electrical offering. And in the light side, we've refurbished the trade counter that sells decorating tools and flooring.

18:59 On the next slide, this is the recent acquisition of Alloway Timber, a business that we purchased a few days ago. It's a five site general merchant delivering £15,900,000 revenue and a loss making business at negative £1,000,000 EBITDA prior to our acquisition recently. It sits in our sweet spot of turnaround transactions. Just giving you two examples of what we've done previously, and we expect to do the same here with earnings accretion from 2024 financial year.

19:32 And that will come through significant revenue and cost synergies. The business has highly strategic geographical locations for which we want to expand into, and this increases our presence in the Southeast. To call out the locations of Mitcham, Byfleet, Putney, G, Kingston, quite affluent areas of South And Southwest London. The total outlay was GBP 3,300,000,000 in cash, of which GBP 2,600,000,000 was payable upon completion.

20:04 I'll hand over to Chris on the next slide. So I think for people that join us regularly, this is a familiar slide. The left hand side, you've got the target of reaching $500,000,000 of revenue by 2024. And I think

20:22 despite kind of the current macro environment, we remain confident of delivering that. We have, as we've shown you in the case studies, multiple organic opportunities through product range extension, new locations being across the board that focused in Mr. Central Heating and George Wines, our civils brand. The digital piece continues to to play through, and we we have the the target and the track record of doing three to four transactions per annum. So with with eighteen months ahead of us, we're we're kind of absolutely confident that that 500,000,000 remains achievable. In terms of EBITDA margin, target is 7.5% over the medium term. You see through graphic those case studies again effectively flowing through. So accretive acquisitions we've just shown you,

21:16 and and with time, will absolutely become one. In terms of optimizing the network, it's that is it's central heating sites that are accretive to our EBITDA margin. Digital for us is a is a we we relax. That's about allowing the customer to move offline and online seamlessly, but capturing more customers. You know, our website is one of our busiest shops, and that's the way to think of it. And we want to kind of help those customers and and nurture them into long term relationships. Product range extension through through the Bakersfield and elaborate grave example. You've seen exactly what we're doing and how we're deploying it. You know, extremely, extremely confident of the upside there. And I think crucially ties into the final block, which is operational leverage. So as we add product range extension, which is often at higher margins, gross margins, the drop the drop through in an operationally leveraged model is is significant.

22:11 And that is how we've managed to move our EBITDA margin, say, substantially over the last two years. Half year, we're up to 6.8%, and and we remain remain confident of of continuing to drive that. So in terms of the outlook, a couple of slides. Firstly, we reiterate that we've delivered a robust performance across key financial metrics and KPIs in spite of the challenging market, and we believe we are currently outperforming the wider market and our larger peers. However, we are not immune to the persistent macroeconomic pressures. These pressures of high levels of inflation, increasing interest rates, weak consumer confidence have continued to reduce the demand in our key end markets of RMI and house new house building, and therefore, consequently, the demand for our group products.

23:08 However, the Board is still anticipating that this level of reduced demand will continue in H2 'twenty three. And accordingly, we expect the group to deliver revenues of $450,000,000 and an adjusted EBITDA of 27,000,000 for full year '23. And what I would say with those numbers is that it's delivering exactly what we said we would at IPO. This is our third half year results, and you know, we're we're we're very confident in the momentum and and the progression that we're making with the business. And off the back of that, we want to reaffirm the fundamentals of our investment proposition. We have an experienced management team that is very agile and commercial, including our divisional structure, and that allows us to seize opportunities in challenging markets. Evidenced by the case studies in this presentation, there will be more opportunities as the market becomes challenging.

24:10 We are well placed to to not only grab those opportunities, but also to then turn turn around these businesses and grow our business in return. The significant organic growth levers of new sites and extended product range, again, we're demonstrating clearly how we're using and how you're using this particular strategy of ours of opening new sites and extending product ranges in either new sites or existing sites to deliver growth. And ultimately, we still remain small. We're less than 1% of a very large £55,000,000,000 building materials market. The opportunity for us to create market share and consolidate still remains. We also have the financial firepower to be able to do that despite the challenging market conditions.

24:57 We, therefore, are on track to deliver our £500,000,000 revenue in 2024 and a 7.5% EBITDA margin in the medium term. Thank you very much for listening, and we're ready to take any questions. Shankar, Chris, that's great. And thank you very much indeed for your presentation this morning. Ladies and gentlemen, please do continue to submit your questions just by using the Q and A tab that's situated on the right hand corner of your screen. But just while the team take a few moments to review those questions that were submitted already, I would like to remind you that a recording of this presentation along with a copy of the slides and the published q and a can be accessed via your investor dashboard. Chris, Shankar, as you can see, we have received a number of questions from investors. And thank you to all of those on the call for taking the time to submit their questions.

25:44 But Shankar, Chris, if I could just hand back to you just to run through those questions and give your responses where it's appropriate to do so, And then I'll pick up from you at the end. Thank you. Good. Sure. Fine. I'll I'll read the first one. I'll say a pre submitted question. Are there plans to diversify the product offering and expand the geographic network through either acquisition or acquiring new product sensors? Yes. And that's exactly what we have been doing. With the recent acquisition of Alloyed Timbers, you can see we've expanded the geographical network. In this case, it's a complementary geographical network that works very well with our existing network. In terms of the question relating to distribution, we're always also on the lookout for for distribution opportunities, predominantly in the plumbing and heating space. And then as and when the right opportunity presents itself and meets our our disciplined criteria, we will we will not hesitate to to to take those opportunities.

26:46 So yes, there are plenty of opportunities to grow through geographical and product extension. Next question from Mark. Good results across the group. When do you envisage consumer demand weakness will start to return to more normal levels? So I'm trying to understand that question. When do we envisage consumer demand weaknesses? Right. I mean, normal levels of consumer demand, we feel, will will will only start to to come through when we see a plateau in interest rate expectation and for inflation to start reducing so that the real spending capability of consumers starts to increase. We're we're in a period where we've seen substantial levels of government assistance followed by substantial levels of inflation, and and then followed by substantial credit tightening.

27:45 All of these combinations do lead to lower consumer demand. And I think the the only way that that will now start to release itself is when there is either stimulus or a reduction in some of those pressures of inflation in interest rates. Next one from Sam. How are you finding the valuation expectations for the businesses you are adding? Do strip to these transactions with an earn out or performance based metric? I'll take that. Yeah. So it it it it's dependent on the scenario, Sam. With Chilton Timber, we we we have said in that deal, there is a contingent consideration based on EBITDA growth.

28:31 That's designed to keep the multiple at a at a consistent level. So it's not that the multiple goes up with performance. It's how the vendor is staying with us and and helping us grow the business, then then clearly, they should be incentivized to do that, which is which is ultimately good for for the shareholders of LORDS. And then in terms of structure, so if you take alloy timber, it's it's the most recent example. What we see there, that that's the scenario where you have to break the four to six times multiple of EBITDA. We we look and think that we've paid 20p in the in the pound for revenue. And we we see an absolutely fantastic fit in terms of geography across the South Of South Of London, which complements our North And West London presence at the moment.

29:22 But what we see there is a big opportunity to grow revenue. We know that we are buying better, and therefore, there's a cost of goods benefit that flows into gross margin. And we also have the opportunity around overhead synergy to realize, say, across three levers there, we we see a great opportunity and therefore don't need to stretch that in a contingent way because we're we're supremely confident, our lab work, great, and best concern of of delivering those those returns. Okay. We've got quite a few on the share price. I think that let's let's tackle let's tackle those. Presubmitted the share price is struggled when performance has been sound. How can the market be assured that strategy is working and recognizing this in the share price?

30:11 Look. And I think the the market can be assured by looking at our h one results. We've delivered an outperformance and a clear outperformance against the market and against our our listed peers. I think what we can't do is is is to to be able to determine when this will be recognized in the share price. Our job is to run this business and perform, and and that is exactly what we what we feel we are doing. Certainly, our h one performance indicates that. And we've thus far met all of the commitments we made at IPO, and we'll continue to do so. So our real task here is to perform.

30:56 And as the question says, the performance has been sound, and we agree with that point. We wait for the market to recognize that we continue to deliver and outperform. Yeah. And think as you go through the KPIs, you know, these are half year results that deliver revenue growth, they deliver EBITDA growth. They deliver EBITDA margin growth, and they hold a a progressive dividend. You know, as Frank said, all we can do is keep keep delivering those numbers, keep talking to to the investor community through through platforms like this about why we think we've got the growth opportunity. And and people will start to like you know, people when when we talk about the center eating and 40 locations at 10% EBITDA margin, you know, if you start to compound some of those things over the medium term, I think that that will help help people understand the opportunity.

31:55 Mike Michael Jay's raised this morning's share price drop, which obviously is aligned with the conversation we're having. And and, you know, the question is why the drop as I have decent investment and faith in the company? 30,000 shares sold and a drop of 13%. This is partly a structural issue in the market at this moment in time. Small trading can have large effects on share prices given the fact that the the amount of shares traded in AIM listed companies are are are relatively small currently. The market is fairly nervous of the macroeconomic environment and is reacting quite adversely to what it perceives to be potential negative news.

32:46 Again, what we would say is that, should we build this business over 30, and we've continued to grow. I think our track record is very solid over that period. We're also demonstrating our solid performance in terms of delivering earnings growth, especially since we've been listed over the last two years. And we're demonstrating that in a very tough market. We feel that at some point, the market will recover, will realize the opportunities that our business has. And as a management, how we're delivering on those opportunities, and the share price will will will see itself corrected, I'm sure, in in due course. Right. Next question. Michael d has asked, would we consider share buyback schemes?

33:33 And I I think the answer there, Michael, is is kind of absolutely not. We think that we can deploy our, our cash and our capital to drive really strong returns, through all of those strategic levers that we spoke about. So going back to the organic, look at the product range examples in in Beckettsville and Ladbroke Grove that flow into Alloy. Look at the multiple we paid for Chilton timber and the and the pence revenue in all the way timber. We've got great opportunities to deliver really strong shareholder value through our strategy. We don't need to use our capital to to do buybacks. I think that would, you know, that for me, that would suggest that we run out of ideas and we're far from that. We're in a sea of opportunity. And in the current market where, you know, share buyback won't necessarily equal a share price increase, it it you know, we would have to exercise caution in returning capital by that means.

34:31 We would much rather up continue to outperform the market and let the market realize when when the market is in a much better place following, hopefully, some some some some better news on interest rates and the macroeconomic environment, which I'm sure will will will come in due course. Okay. And then final question, unless any more any more land. Presubmitted. Market share remains relatively low. What are the plans to drive this forward? And is there sufficient capacity to meet greater customer demand and growth? So I think the way I'd I'd answer this, go back to what we what we said, we're we're less than 1% of the market. We today, we have 48 locations across The UK. That's that's 31 in in merchanting.

35:19 If you take the national the market leader nationally, they have a in excess of 600. And in plumbing and heating, we have 17 national people have in excess of 300. So there's there's huge geography opportunity for us. We then have product range extension. So some of our branches have been in the group for for in excess of thirty years. Some have been with us for for seven days. And they to varying levels, but not necessarily linear with the time they've been with us. They still have product range extension opportunities that we can continue to yield. And and that that means that we can take a little bit more out of every builder's wallet. And because this is an operationally leveraged model, if you can drop through product range extension at a slightly higher gross margin with less cost to serve.

36:05 That's how you get that EBITDA margin improvement that we're delivering result you know, results after results. If you if you go back over over the last five, six sets of numbers, you see that real progression in revenue and EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Chris, Shankar, if I may just jump back in there, and thank you very much indeed for addressing all of those questions that came in from investors. And, of course, if there are any further questions that do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended just for you to review to then add any additional responses, of course, where it's appropriate to do so, and we'll publish all those responses out on the platform. But, Shankar, perhaps before really just looking to redirect those on the call to provide you their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company, if I could please just ask you for a few closing comments to wrap up with, that would be great.

36:56 Well, again, thank you, everyone, for joining this call. We are delighted with our H1 'twenty three performance. We've outperformed the market. We believe that despite the changing and challenging macroeconomic conditions, our business is well set to continue to outperform the market. And looking into 2024, we still have great opportunities to meet our target of $500,000,000 revenue and a 7.5% EBITDA margin in the medium term. Thank you very much. Shankar, Chris, that's great. And thank you once again for updating investors this morning. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the management team can best understand your views and expectations.

37:42 This may take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of LORDS GROUP TRADING PLC, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session. So good morning to you all.