Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (Milan:INW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call

0:00 Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the InWit Full Year twenty twenty five Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Luigi Menevra, Strategy, M and A and Investor Relations Director of Inwit. Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me today, I have Diego Gavli, English General Manager and Emilia Trudeau, Chief Financial Officer.

0:48 Before we begin, please allow me to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on Page two. Following a brief presentation of the full year 2025 results, we will open the floor to questions. Over to you, Diego. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our third analyst call in two weeks. Today, no surprises. So in a way, no news is good news. And after this, we all deserve a good long weekend. In today's session, we share a solid set of fiscal year twenty twenty five results with revenues up by four percent and EBITDA by 4.8%, confirming our dividend per share of €0.55 a reminder of our 2026 guidance and medium term baseline outlook as already communicated on March 19 a recap of our key strategic points of strength even in the current phase of tension with our customers.

1:56 The telco sector in Italy continues to go through a challenging moment and neutral off players can help, leveraging on sharing economics to deliver investments in digitalization in the most efficient way. The MSAs are structured in a way that creates value for both Inuit and its customers, thanks to the consolidation of the infrastructure and the unlocking of sharing synergies to the benefits of all parties. Our Amp. Io's fast broadband team sent us early termination notices. We have been clear that both acts have no legal ground and fall outside the legal framework of the MSAs. Legal certainty is fundamental not only for InWit, but more generally for the industry in order to safeguard the ability to attract capital and execute the critical and strategic infrastructure investments that the country requires.

2:57 Despite this challenging backdrop, we have delivered our twenty twenty five guidance and our shareholders will receive a dividend per share of €0.55 which at current levels implies an attractive dividend of 7.7%. We continue to expand our asset base in another solid set of industrial KPIs in the full year. We built about 800 new sites in the year, bringing the total to about 26,000. We added 2,800 new POPs, tenancy ratio improving further to an industry leading level of 2.4 times. We delivered 1.600 real estate transactions, which continued to drive our efficiency gains.

3:51 EBITDA was up by almost 5% with margin up by zero five percentage point to 73% supported by the least cost efficiency plan. Recurring free cash flow was up by 2% year on year at €634,000,000 Year on year growth reflects also higher cash leases and financial charges, partially offset by lower cash taxes. Leverage ratio stands at 5.2 times, well within our target corridor. This reflects extraordinary shareholder remuneration of 500,000,300 million share buyback and 200,000,000 special dividends on top of the €500,000,000 ordinary dividend.

4:45 2025 remained intense from a commercial perspective. We developed further the indoor coverage connectivity markets through DAS technology in a number of verticals. We continued with major projects like Roma Smart City. In summary, in the context of transition for the industry, InWit continues to display a resilient growth trajectory and grow the asset base affirming its leadership. We continue to support clients in their effort to improve the mobile network and stand ready to capture additional growth opportunities. However, Q4 showed the signs of a slowing market with down costs, pulling from non committed projects.

5:36 Let's now skip a few pages to Slide 11. In this page, we show the industrial and financial progress of Inuit over the past few years. We had more than €300,000,000 in revenues, growing high single digit. Smart infrastructure revenues, up more than 4.5 times. Cash flow was up in the double digits. Nearly 3,500 new towers, tenancy ratio moving from 1.9 to 2.4 times, land ownership tripled. All of this translated in a growing return on capital employed, now exceeding eight percent, confirming the soundness of InWeek's business model with visible impact on our investments already in terms of cash flow generation and return on capital.

6:35 Let me now hand it over to Emilia for a recap of our 2026 guidance. Thank you, Diego. We reiterate our 2026 targets as communicated already on March 19: revenues in the range of €1,050,000,000 to €1,090,000,000 EBITDA margin of approximately 90% EBITDA after leases margin above 72%, recurring free cash flow in the range of $550,000,000 to €590,000,000 dividend per share at least in line with 2025 confirmed to €0.55 per share. Leverage ratio at 5.5 times, consistent with the structural target range of five to six times.

7:29 This reflects the current challenging market environment and ongoing complexities in anchor tenant relations. CapEx in 2026 remained elevated at around €270,000,000 due to the phasing of next generation EU cash CapEx recognition, plus investments for smart city ROMA, plus land acquisitions and energy programs. The normalized 2025 total revenue space takes into account the lack of project based non committed revenue components, which we have developed over time with operators capturing their discretionary flexible budgets.

8:17 Such discretionary budgets have been put on hold at this stage, given the current context of limited budgets and conflictual relationships. Taking into account this one off step down, in 2026, we expect low single digit revenue growth driven from the following components: inflation, CPI, Inc. Based on 2025 average index at 1.4% anchor commitment, new towers, new POPs and DAS in line with MSA commitments. Well of growth with steady pace with other MNOs and IoT.

9:04 Smart Infrastructural refers to DAS indoor across premium locations and projects in the North City verticals. We have an efficient debt profile, 85% fixed, 15% floating, with a current average cost of almost 3 percent and average bond maturity of four point five years. The first relevant maturity is in 2027 related to the €500,000,000 sustainability linked term loan. This week, the agencies confirmed our ratings with updated outlooks, With ratings at BBB- investment grade in credit watch negative versus previously stable outlook.

9:59 Standard import global ratings at BB plus with stable outlook versus previously, where it was positive. I will now hand it back to Diego for the final section of the presentation, including the medium term outlook. Thank you. Our medium term baseline outlook, as communicated on March 19, consists of low single digit annual revenue growth of around 3%. Half of it is inflation. Continued EBITDA margin expansion, driven primarily by land acquisition, which could translate into an annual EBITDA growth of about 4%. An all in annual CapEx envelope of around €200,000,000 including land acquisition is likely more than one third of the total.

10:56 Of this, about €20,000,000 would be maintenance CapEx and therefore go into the recurring free cash flow definition. Dividend per share of at least €0.55 at the current level. The financial structural leverage ratio target between five and six times. In other words, even in the unrealistic scenario in which the market remains stuck over the medium term, we would still be able to have a decent organic growth, an attractive dividend and a solid balance sheet. The baseline outlook does not include the following potential upside: normalization of the industry dynamics densification both outdoor and indoor opportunities to expand across digital infrastructure.

11:52 At the same time, the baseline outlook does not include the downside risk of MSAs termination as we don't believe this is a likely or realistic outcome. The technological context for digital infrastructure assets continue to evolve. Data traffic in Italy is growing at double digit rates until 2030 or more than 2.5 times from today's level. Towers are and will remain central in this evolution, part of the digital ecosystem that goes from passive, interactive, small cell, DAS, IoT and edge computing. There is need for more investments in the network to close the gap. Mobile network investments cannot be postponed indefinitely.

12:41 For towers or macro sites, we estimate a market potential between 7,000 to 12,000 new towers in Italy by 2030 and we plan on maintaining a leading market share of towers. Let me now reiterate a few important points that we discussed deeply during our ADOC call last week following the receipt of MSA termination. We have been clear in our communication to the market that both acts have no legal ground and fall upside the legal framework of the MSAs. Our network of about 26,000 sites is the result of forty years of work of TIM, Vodafone and Inwik, where we could take the benefit of the first mover advantage to build top quality sites in the best available locations.

13:36 About 75% of our network is not replicable. And when it comes to tower prices, it's important to compare apples with apples. It's not correct to compare fees related to the sales and leaseback transactions with pure Austin fees. NSA fees are intrinsically linked to the structure of the sales leaseback transaction. Pure hosting fees are the result of normal demandsupply competitive dynamics. In other terms, there is a captive segment of hosting that stems from the sales and leaseback transactions, which is not contestable for the entire period required to return investments.

14:28 Reserving the captive segment protects the foundation of the industry preventing potential opportunistic behavior that will destroy value across the entire value chain. As already shared, all our prices are in line with the market. With regard to the change of control clause that's clear in the MSA, the clause was included in order to protect all three parties. The only relevant change in control event is the resolution in August 2022 of the Schroder Agreement between TIM and Vodafone. TIM and Vodafone were up to the point jointly controlling Ingrid.

15:15 When TIM sold its stake in DAFN to Albion in August 2022, joint control ceased with the dissolution of the shareholder agreement. TIM triggered the change of control clause and in which promptly notified it to TIM and Vodafone locking in all parties for further sixteen years until 2038. Out of clarity, the Vodafone events in 2020 consisted in intragroup transfers of the inuit stake between entities fully owned by the Vodafone Group. Those events had no impact on the joint control of Inuit.

16:03 Therefore, they are not relevant with regards to the change of control clause. As a matter of fact, if this share transfer would have been relevant with regards to the change of control of Inuit to the control of Inuit, the relevant party should have launched a mandatory tender offer. This didn't happen obviously. We have clear and consistent legal opinions from the best law firms in the country on this. Let me now conclude. The tower's business model is based on long term contracts that create value for all parties, thanks to the sharing economics and network efficiency.

16:50 The Italian telco market continues to be under pressure with low prices and sub par returns. Circles are offloading challenges on the infra players and this was already visible in the final quarter of twenty twenty five. Still, we delivered the 2025 guidance, including the €0.55 dividend per share, which implies an attractive dividend yield. Our 2026 guidance and the medium term Basel and outlook reflect the current challenging market condition. Even in the unrealistic scenario in which the market remains stuck over the medium term, our baseline medium term outlook means that we would still be able to have a decent organic growth, an attractive dividend and a solid balance sheet.

17:50 The baseline outlook does not include the following potential upside: normalization of the industry dynamics, densification, opportunities to expand across digital infrastructure. At the same time, as just said, the baseline outlook does not include the downside risk of MSA termination as we don't believe this is a likely or realistic outcome. We confirm that we continue to be open to constructive conversation with our clients. From our perspective, it's key to protect the integrity of the MSA as a long term contract. We are open to optimize further the terms for new investments and we aim to achieve a win win outcome in terms of positive net present value and business development.

18:43 With this, we thank you for your attention, and we aim to provide you with an updated business plan likely enough to as visibility allows it. We will now open the floor to Q and A. Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from Roshan Ranjit, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

19:36 Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the presentation. My question is quite simple. We've seen quite a lot of news flow over the last one weeks. Point And Diego, you mentioned this constructive dialogue. So since we've had the filings for the court hearing from yourself and from Swisscom, have you had dialogue with Swisscom on the MSA negotiations since? So over the last, I guess, week, have you been in discussions with them? Yes. Hi, thanks for the question. No, we are not having dialogue at this stage. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Rohit Modi, Citi.

20:26 Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I have just one question. Apologies if you already replied to this in previous calls, but this is regarding the migration phase. Hypothetically, if if both the MSEs manage to terminate the contract, are there any rights that Invid has in the migration phase given whether they'll continue to use the remaining the towers as a part of migration period as a whole for foreseeable future? Or Invid does have a right to terminate the contract and then to vacate the sides? Thanks. On the migration plan, the framework is about a plan which has to be agreed between parties.

21:15 The time is not shorter than three years. And all this will be in the spirit and logic and content of the all or Nothing globe. Let me also take the opportunity to highlight which the fact that we stress, which is about the lack of alternatives on to our network and the fact that we have the majority of our sites, which are actually not replicable. Thank you.

22:05 Thank you. The next question is from Minos Silvestre, Equita. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, everybody. One question concerning 2026 guidance. Here, I would like to, let's say, just have a little bit of color concerning the discretionary spending that you are assuming on 2026 level of revenues. Thank you. So 2026, the base case is actually, I think, with the overall baseline case, basically that the anchor tenants invest only on the committed, contractualized initiatives.

23:00 And we have a continued steady growth with the other customers, with the OROs, with the other renewals. And we continue gradually to develop and grow the in dock coverage to DAS and dedicated projects. Okay. And the discretionary revenues that, I mean, will have a negative contribution in 2026. What's, I mean, this level of revenues in 2026, I mean, is that the risk for 100%? Or is it something else in there? Yes. The discretionary revenues is there is no discretionary revenues basically with the containments or portals.

23:47 So yes, it's actually the recent. Thank you. The next question is from Matthew Robilliard, Barclays. Good evening. Thank you for the presentation. I had a question. I'm looking at Slide 14, and you show some growth driven by anchor commitment and OLO growth. I don't know if you can quantify that in terms of sites, how much that represents. And also, are the anchor commitments fully part of the MSA, the existing MSA or is it on top of it, it's a different contract that could go whatever happens with the legal decision?

24:43 Yes. Thanks for the question. In terms of towers, we are talking about a few hundreds, significantly lower than the last years where actually we deployed at about 800 towers per year. In terms of revenues, we are talking here about the MSA committed revenue, so a contractualized contracted committed revenues where there is no dispute about. So it's how can you say it's clean and certain and committed and in progress. Thank you. And if I could follow-up, I mean, I think you had also some contracts with Open Fiber or maybe Fiber Cup in terms of growth or in terms of deployment of site for FWA?

25:39 That's the topic number four on your slide deck, right, OLO growth? Yes. Basically, the OLO growth is mainly the other MNOs such as Iliad, some of Win three as well as some fixed value success for Open Fiber. The main component is basically the M and O component. In terms of revenues, it's the main component, as I said, is the other M and O component. Okay. And that is basically increasing tenancy rather than building sites? Sorry, basic questions. It's basically secondary tenants. It's collocation on existing sites.

26:26 Thank you very much. Welcome. The next question is from Giorgio Tavolini, Intermonte. Please go ahead. Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on the ground leases saving of €10,000,000 in Q4. I was wondering if it's related to a specific transaction. And back to Miro's question on discretionary revenues, how much was the exact amount in 2025 since I see the block in the presentation, the bridge for the full year 2026 guidance bridge? Thank you. Yes.

27:12 On the discretionary revenues, it's on the few tenths range. And with regards to the lease cost, lease costs are continuously optimized through the program of land buyout as well as renegotiation of lease contracts, and that is able to offset the impact of increasing asset base and inflation. Okay. And for the discretionary revenues in 2025? Few of millions. Few tens of millions. Okay, thank you. Welcome. The next question is from Andrei Chaveczak, UBS.

28:07 Hi, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. Thanks for the presentation. I have two questions, please. One is on the CapEx. If you can kind of walk us through the new level of roughly EUR 200,000,000 as going back to the previous strategy update, the guidance was for CapEx to be closer to $240,000,000 over the midterm and higher in the near term. So I guess this is obviously the step down would be related to what's going on with the anchor tenants and therefore, a little growth on the top line. But maybe if you can give us a bit more detail around which of the envelopes from the full year 2024 strategy update you are not cutting on and which envelopes of CapEx you are actually cutting on?

28:54 And maybe the second question, if I may. Are you a party to the, I guess, consultation process around the spectrum renewal, which I believe is going to be kind of finalized in the coming months or in the summer and then potentially make it making it into the budget in in kind of late twenty twenty five? And if you are, how is the kind of perception of the regulators or authorities around the fact that maybe part of the investments that would or rather the fact that if there is a discount given to the anchor as part of that capital that they are safe and they're supposed to be rolling out into new networks, they would potentially be directing towards duplicating infrastructure that is already there that you are providing. So are there already kind of some signals that this is not something that the authorities would be looking favorably at? Thank you.

29:55 Thanks for the questions. With regards to the CapEx split, actually, the very relevant component will remain to be the land acquisition, which will account broadly 35% of the total. Then there is, let me say, half of the total envelope, which is related to growth, including CapEx for towers, for the smart infra, so DAS and special projects and the energy projects. Then we have probably 10% related to maintenance. The compared to the previous guidance, we have embedded in the current baseline outlook a lower number of towers, a significantly lower number of towers. And this is the main difference compared to previous plan.

30:57 With regards to the frequency renewals, that's an interesting topic. We clearly the industry, as we said, is under dramatic pressure. So we think it's relevant and it's important to have the frequency renewals which support the industry. Clearly, we think it's important that the support to the industry is to the whole value chain, to whole operators, both the, let me say, the service cost as well as the infra cost. And so that's important in order to not only support the new investment but also to preserve the existing infrastructure and the investments which have already been done.

31:50 Clearly, in this context, but in general, as we said, we don't think that the duplication of infrastructure is an efficient way and creates efficiency and value in the industry. Actually, we think that consolidation of infra is the way to build efficiency within the industry. So continuous scale and optimization and consolidation will drive, as did in the past, will continue. It's the way to continue to drive efficiency in the overall industry to the benefit of all parties.

32:37 In terms of visibility, we think that there will be more visibility on the process in the second part of the fiscal year. Thank you very much. Welcome. If there are no other questions, maybe this Excuse one we do have our last question from Charlotte Piet, Schroders. Please go ahead.

33:30 Hi. I just had one follow-up. So you were asked about the dialogue with Swisscom to which there hasn't been any. I just wondered if there had been any dialogue with Telecom Italia. And I guess maybe following up on that, is the lack of dialogue because you are simply dealing with this in a legal fashion and it's for them to negotiate? Or any color would be helpful. Yeah. I think that we we received the termination notice between last, I think, Wednesday and Sunday and Monday, whatever, so just a few days ago. And clearly, we have been busy on filing the responses and activating all the relevant steps.

34:24 And now the resistor is welcome. I think there is time for everything. For the time being, the dialogue has not been activated yet. But clearly, we are always open. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing Thank you very much. So let me just thank you all of you for your attention and remark that we are confident that a realistic win win outcome is actually achievable with our anchors.

35:12 And with that, we wish you all a happy Easter. Thank you, and happy Easter again. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over and you may disconnect your telephones.