Alexandra Barter-Carse
Head of Corporate Access & Investor Relations at CENTAMIN PLC
Replay available
March Investor Presentation hosted by Centamin (CEY) on Investor Meet Company, held 2022-03-23.

On 6ix: 6ix.com/event/centamin-plc-cey-march-investor-presentation
Automated transcript · Written by software from the replay's audio. It can mishear names and figures; the replay is the record.
0:01 Good afternoon, and welcome to the CENTAMIN PLC March investor presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen only mode. Questions are encouraged. It could be submitted anytime via the q and a tab situated in the right hand corner of your screen. Simply click q and a, scroll to the bottom, type your question, and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question received during the meeting itself. However, the company review all questions submitted today and publish responses where it's appropriate to do so. Before we begin, we'd like to submit the following poll. I'd now like to hand you over to Alex Bartekast, Head of Investor Relations and Martin Hawken, CEO of
0:31 CENTAMIN PLC. Good afternoon. Good afternoon and thank you very much everybody and welcome to this retail investor presentation from a gloriously sunny and delightful London, I'm glad to say. Think spring has finally arrived. 2021, I think as you've heard us probably say before, a transformational year. I think a lot of good work done, a lot of commitments delivered into, and I think really laying the foundation for long term success at CENTAMIN has really start to deliver that value and that upside that we've identified. Disclaimers, of course, the legal bid. I'm sure you'll all digest that at your own leisure. Just a very brief recap. I'm quite sure everybody on the call is familiar, but just in case there are some joiners not heard from before, CENTAMIN today.
1:17 We currently operate the world class mine at Sukari in the Eastern Desert Of Egypt. It is Egypt's largest and only commercial scale gold mining operation at this stage. We've got an incredibly strong balance sheet, no debt, no hedging, and as of the end of last year, $257,000,000 in cash and liquids. We've got an excellent exploration portfolio. We've got some six and a half thousand square kilometers of, we believe, highly prospective terrain both in Egypt and across West Africa in Cote D'Ivoire. And we have and continue to be, I believe, a leading industry shareholder return through the dividend.
1:52 Just a quick look at our portfolio in detail. I like to think of this as an integrated pipeline now. And that integrated pipeline also supported by a incredibly strong and exciting mineral inventory. Sukari, obviously, we've got that down as brownfields there. As we've said repeatedly, we don't believe that we have explored the full extent of the Sukari ore body or the concession. So while that is actually in production, we also see that as a brownfield opportunity. We've got an advanced exploration opportunity at Doropo, as you know, over in Cote D'Ivoire. We're pushing that through pre feasibility at this stage. We've got some early stage opportunity at ABC. Early stage, it does have a 2,000,000 ounce inventory at this point, but a significant strike package to be further investigated. And of course, the more recently greenfield opportunity, we think is hugely exciting in Egypt around the EDX or the Eastern Desert Exploration Permits that we have across the Eastern Desert Of Egypt. And finally, the Baty West project which sits in Cote D'Ivoire, I think has been well flagged to date.
2:52 It doesn't quite meet our hurdles and that is under review for rationalization at this stage. When I think back to 2021, I've said repeatedly over the past that that I really wanted to focus on delivery. I think that was a key metric for management to demonstrate our ability to deliver against plans and really start to rebuild that confidence and faith in in CENTAMIN as a company and our ability to deliver into those promises and really start to ensure that the market starts to recognize that the performance that we can put together will be the one that drives the the success of the company. You might recognize this as our slides are regular update on strategy that hasn't changed in the two years I've been around. Put simply in three buckets, it's value maximization at Sukari, it's growth and diversification of the business, and it's that commitment to stakeholder returns.
3:42 And when we think about that strategy in practice, what we believe that we were able to execute that successfully, that's going to lead to us developing that multi asset, multi jurisdictional producer that we believe this company can and should be. And when we think about that delivery of performance last year, we've delivered to each of those buckets, I believe. In terms of value maximization at Sukari, we've delivered guidance, both in terms of ounces and costs. We delivered our life of asset update, and that gave us a clear roadmap of how to achieve 500,000 ounces of production on a consistent and long term basis. And we've identified some both clear growth and further cost saving targets as well. In terms of growth and diversification, we put our backs into the West African review that was done in the middle of last year, A full review of the portfolio. And as I mentioned, we were delighted to note in that that the Doropo project screened very nicely and one we believed has both the technical merit to be a viable project and also one that is of the requisite scale and quality that makes sense for CENTAMIN as well. We've basically put that into prefeasibility study.
4:41 As I mentioned before as well, we've also secured the 3,000 square kilometers of the Eastern Desert landholding in and around Sukari and also on remote sites as well. And in terms of that commitment to stakeholder returns, just under a $100,000,000 put back into the Egyptian economy through profit share and royalty. We believe our responsibility to Egypt is significant. And by being a partnership with the government, we ensure our long term success and viability. And as we confirmed, subject to shareholder approval in May at the AGM, the commitment to the $105,000,000 of dividend for financial year 2021.
5:16 We look back at that value maximization at Sukari, life of asset work that we'd flagged in late twenty twenty and we completed through 2021. And I think that was a hugely successful piece of work. We added over a million ounces to reserve over the process. The largest single reserve increase in the mine's operating history, certainly before production, since production began. That's a 23% increase. I think importantly, the thing we're most excited about was that increase in the underground. That was a 200% increase in underground reserves and actually importantly takes a four year mine life to just under an eight... Sorry, just over an eight year mine life now with further upside to come. That underpinned an interim schedule which we could see a consistent level of 460,000 ounces over the next twelve years. I think importantly, clearly signposted a very technically simple and obvious way in which to get the asset back to consistently producing 500,000 ounces over the medium to long term as well.
6:13 That will put simply put together by an underground expansion study, which is underway right now. How can we get more autumn from the underground to surface and to displace either stockpile or the lower grade open pit material? But also I think really excitingly with these emergence of the bonanza high grade zones that have been identified and have now become a priority target for us as well. Inflation is clearly a key point within the sector right now. All companies are looking at that, not just within the mining sector but globally as well. This was a cost savings programme that we actually implemented eighteen months ago, long before inflation raised its head over the last six months, putting something that we've continued to focus on. We delivered $71,000,000 of our cost saving program to date, and we actually had the confidence last year to increase our 100,000,000 target to $150,000,000 or tonnes, apologies.
7:00 Throughout that sort of maximization process, we are backed up by our resilient balance sheet as I mentioned before. And I think all the way through last year as well, one of the things that we're most impressed with was our ability to maintain our safety record and actually improve on the previous year as well. We achieved a record five million hours LTI free at the site last year. We beat our our frequency rates by our 25% target at a point four six. And throughout the year, despite the challenges of COVID, we did maintain our full COVID protocol through 2021, and that did allow us to continue with an uninterrupted basis both in terms of gold sales and supply chain. As I mentioned before, guidance was delivered last year. That was some 415,000 ounces of 2021 production.
7:49 In terms of our ASIC, that was 1,200... Just over $1,200 per ounce and cash cost of $8.60. So really pleased with that result. And as we look forward to 2022, building our momentum on top of that, we see a production range between four thirty to four sixty ounces this year. Our ASIC and cash costs are in line with those identified back in December. I And think it's an important point to note that when we look at that is that back in December when we announced these, we were a bit of an outlier and I think there was some adverse commentary around the fact that we seem to be raising our costs in December last year. I think it's important to note that we'd identified the cost drivers that were pushing inflation through the system. We looked at our Q4 base and then we used those Q4 costs and inputs to derive the 2022 guidance.
8:35 And therefore, I think when we did the full year results in 2021 last week, there was some surprise that we haven't changed our guidance, but I think that's because we'd front run the process and got ahead of it early in December. I think as well in terms of the production profile, I think it's important to note that 40 fivefifty five split, not 65. I don't think we're producing 110% this year, a small typo on the slide there. But the it is a second half weighted. I think importantly as well is that the first quarter is planned to be a down quarter this year for us compared to previous years. I think that is entirely within the plan. You may be aware that we have decided to transition away from contract mining in the underground to owner mining. And therefore, we have derated somewhat the first quarter plan as we account for that transition and interruption to production.
9:23 But importantly, expect to see a Q2, then Q3, then Q4 increase in production and the maintenance of that 430,000 to 460,000 ounce profile as well. So a softer q one compared to last year coming up, but one very much planned for and in line with budget, and then allowing us to get back into our stride through q two, three, and four as we maintain that four thirty to four sixty thousand ounce profile. This is one of the slides I really like. Something we've put together two years in now is that historically, we've not given much more than two or three years guidance. And I think this slide really neatly encapsulates all we're looking to with the project now, right now. For the first time in a long time, we feel the confidence to put together a full life of mine schedule and demonstrate that to the broader market based on the work that we've done. I think importantly, it shows us how we get back to that 500,000 ounce profile.
10:13 I think as well then, really excitingly, the bringing through Doropo really starts to deliver into that vision of a multi asset, multi jurisdictional producer. And I think as you can see from there, a really exciting growth pipeline as demonstrated by that sort of production graph. I think also what's not shown in there of course is the existing upside potential we further have. So what's not captured in there is the potential of the exploration ground in Egypt. What's not captured in there as well is the potential further growth in the ore body and also the ABC project in West Africa as well. But we're delighted with that. There's some near term catalysts coming up for this year. We'll help to underpin that vision. We've got the Doropo PFS, which is on schedule for the second half of this year. And of course, the underground expansion study for Sukari as well. I mentioned cost pressures before. It's a fact of life, unfortunately, where we are right now.
11:04 It's something that we're we're aware of. It's something that we are not just accepting as a management team. I did flag that eighteen months ago, we started a cost reduction program, and I think that really this recent changes in input costs have really brought that to the fore. It's something that we're continually working hard on. We have a number of initiatives. As I said, we've delivered some $71,000,000 from now, our upsized $150,000,000 program. And we believe there's more to come on this as well. So I think inflation is real, whether that be diesel input costs, reagents and so on. I think there are a number of inputs that we will have to manage as we go forward, and we are managing them. I But do believe there are costs that we can take out of the business. And these are just some of the examples of areas where we've looked across the business as part of this culture of continuous improvement we're looking at. Managing our cyanide consumption is a key one for us.
11:52 Recycling and grinding media with... As well, which is a good cost saving. Additional CIC vessels to to to basically scavenge additional gold on the return circuit, improving our recovery through froth froth... Visio froth cameras within that as well, and also our high production truck trays as well. So we do believe there's lots more to come. There's lots of opportunity to continue to remove cost out of the business as we go forward. And importantly, as we strive to focus not just on production of ounces, but also that cost control is really what drives our free cash, which is the key metric for us. And as you'd expect with a modern mining company, you know, we take our societal and our investor concerns incredibly seriously. And I think ESG really is obviously coming to the fore and has been for some time. We do place ESG at the center of our decision making. I think that's a lot of people sort of talk about that.
12:44 But I think under under my watch, have now employed and expanded our ESG team. They have an integral part in terms of management of the business both across Sukari and Egypt and into West Africa. And importantly, developing the framework about how we will take CENTAMIN forward recognizing the requirements of our investors and broader society as well. We've got a a comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction strategy, which runs development in 2022, which will set science based targets for how we achieve net zero. And also importantly, as well as that framework policy, a number of initiatives to support the implementation of that framework as well. You probably all be familiar with our 36 megawatt solar plant, where there are high performance truck trays which are driving productivity gains as well as greenhouse gas reduction.
13:29 And with a number of other opportunities we believe will make make great business sense, but also tie in very importantly with that greenhouse gas strategy as well. Grid power is likely to now be available within the region within Sukari. We continue to look at the dynamic gas blending of fleet and looking at potential use of LNG as well. And further down the track, solar expansion remains very much on the cards and, of course, the electrification of the underground fleet as well. So I think some good... A good start made on our framework policy, some great initiatives being implemented, a lot more to tackle as we go forward and opportunity to deliver. And when we look at last year, you know, when we started the process of the life of acid, what I really felt would come out of that was or what I hoped would come out of that would be a roadmap of how we restore the long term vision for Sukari.
14:20 Effectively, a sort of back to basics sort of approach where we'd effectively deconstruct the asset into its constituent parts and then put that back together from a bottom up basis with a long term vision in mind to demonstrate how we could get Sukari back to where we wanted to be. And I think that's been a successful process. I think that's been superb. I'm delighted with those outcomes. But I think what's really sort of struck me as we've looked at Sukari, that once we've joined an asset that's twelve years into production, about to produce its 5,000,000 and you would kind of expect that a
14:50 lot of the obvious opportunity would already have been identified and be on the way to be delivered. But I think as we've looked through that, I think what we've also been able to identify is a significant amount of potential upside growth within the business already. As I touched on before with that reserve growth in the underground, I think this is an obvious area. You may have heard me say before that I believe the ore body is geologic sorry, is drill constrained, it's not geologically constrained and I think our work through the new mineral resource team back in 2021 has really started to prove that. We always felt that there'd be good growth
15:21 opportunity within the underground and we felt that the sort of the deeper materials we headed into the top of Horus and the Horus Deeps area would provide that resource from reserve growth and the long term direction of travel for mine. And that very much remains the case. We still see that as the medium to long term view. I think what really surprised us presently last year is that the amount of opportunity in and around existing workings in Amman, in Qatar, and then more recently the Basque area. And that reserve growth that you see, that 200% reserve growth, that has significantly come from adjacent to existing working areas. So that means a couple of things. One is that it's relatively quicker and cheaper to access and more quick to get those in turns into the mining plan. But also, it means that the longer term potential from Toppa Horus and Horus remains intact and available to us as well. So I think it's important to us that how we've seen that growth has come very pleasantly from those shallower areas and allows us now with that bank to continue to look at those deeper areas in terms of Toppa Horus and Horus deeps as well. So we think there's still a lot more to come from the underground.
16:19 And I think what also emerged last year was around the Bass or these Bonanza zones. I think, you know, obviously Sukari has a history of producing from high grade zones in the underground historically. But I think as part of the full geological reinterpretation that we completed last year, where we effectively pull all the historical core out and relog the ore body from north to south on 25 meter centers. That emergence of that model and that interpretation started to identify these zones of potential sort of high grade in and around this vast area which links Amman to Ptah. I think these are hugely exciting. They're relatively small targets, they're low tonnage, structurally complex, but actually contain some fantastic grades.
17:05 And I think that that one can see quite clearly again that they're easy to access from the existing infrastructure. So it's not huge amounts of development to get down to them. But these relatively low targets be 150,200,250,000 tons of material. You know, we believe have a potential to be around an ounce per ton in terms of grade, about 30 grams per ton. And you can see very quickly that the ability to drill these off to get them into the resource category to then throw a mining plan around them and sequence them into the ore body at mine plan. And then importantly, ensure that we have the process plan ready and set up to receive this high grade material is something that's a priority for 2022. We're working hard to bring those in as quickly as possible.
17:45 Are they more available? They're certainly not closed off to depth. We believe it could increase from there, but certainly those known targets that we see at this stage are a priority focus for us as well. And one can imagine them bringing those in from the mine plan, they displace lower grade open pit or even stockpile material and could have a meaningful contribution to both ounce production and importantly cash flow generation as well. So I think that's really exciting for us to build on that case. I think it's also important to note that that these high grade or bonanza zones aren't required to be brought in to an...
18:16 To the 500,000 ounce steady state that we talked about earlier. We can get to those levels based on the current average ore body reserve grade with a relatively minor increase in production from the underground. We can achieve that 500,000 ounce steady state and these high grade per ounce structures would in fact be additive on top of that from there as well.
18:38 Really, really pleased to see this picture. This came through over the weekend. You might remember that we've been talking about exploring the balance of the concession. We started that with a new exploration manager that joined back with me back in 2020, reviewed our approach to surface exploration around the concession, went back to a little bit to a more back to basics traditional type approach to exploration, believe in mapping, soil sampling, trenching
19:06 as well and identified a number of areas which we've actually followed up with the 10,000 meter drilling program which is just about completed and we should start getting assays through in April, May to see if we can identify any ancillary a smaller scale targets in and around the Sukari concession. But also importantly, we undertook it ourselves last year to try and get the first airborne survey completed in Egypt. It hadn't been done before. Various reasons in terms of just of importation of this fairly advanced kit. Local sort of heliborne or or fixed wing suppliers marrying those two up and then getting moving. But but after a fair bit of patience, we we managed to navigate the the process of tying these equip... Tying these consultants and contractors together. And actually, we signed contracts and completed the contractual part of the process back in q one.
19:55 So we now had a a local Egyptian helicopter company working with the South African airborne geophysical group and able to import the equipment during the first quarter. I think I committed late last year that we would have this survey underway within the first quarter. I was delighted to say by the March 20. As you can see from the picture on the left, that is the first flight of the Airborne Geophysics during the calibration phase as well. So delighted that's finally underway. And hugely exciting as to the information it will give us around the concession. And we'll have to see if it's able to generate any meaningful new targets within the Sukari concession. But I do believe it's a proof of concept and will be hugely beneficial in the broader exploration work that we do across the Eastern Desert for CENTAMIN as we go forward from there. But we're delighted to say that's not a stock photo from the website. That is actually our concession, our helipad and the geophysical survey taking place a couple of days ago.
20:53 As I touched on there the exploration of the bid round, Look, really excited by this. I think we all know that we chased this down last year. We're able to secure what we believe is a really prospective and quite exciting land package within the Eastern Desert. The Nagarus block, which is named after the Wadi system, sits surrounding the Sukari mine. We believe there's potential there for generation satellite feed. And then two standalone areas in the Umruss and Naj block to the north of us as well. We've got about a $10,000,000 program spread over this year and next. We've been busy with logistics. We now have offices, accommodation block, vehicles, a recently recruited domestic and international expatriates exploration team, And we are due to get boots on the ground imminently to start the boots sort of physical field work across initially the numerous block from there. We've done quite a bit of remote sensing already from satellite work and then so on and so forth.
21:52 And also some minor field visits to establish boundary markers and we think there's a huge amount of potential across the Eastern Desert. I think we're also joined by our sort of international peers who also see the potential, the likes of B2 and Barrick, Ulster Strategies have also secured ground and we're starting to see that emergence of a potential hard rock sector within Egypt as we go forward as well. So really looking forward to getting stuck into the work there. Nugarus, we've already identified over 300 artisanal hard rock workings within that block area there and over 20 kilometers of alluvial artisanal mining is identified as well. So, you know, we think Sukari, a 10, 15,000,000 ounce asset sitting in the Arabian Nubian shield there, we're not... We don't believe it's a one off and there's only one of them. We do believe it's highly prospective.
22:44 We look back to the history of the of the sort of, you know, the mining from the pharaonic times right to the colonial times. You know, we do believe this is one of the last great unexplored geological terrains. And I think the application of modern exploration techniques, satellite imagery, machine learning and as you saw the airborne survey there, we think it's hugely exciting at the potential it could emerge from Egypt over the next few years as we start getting stuck into exploration work as well. I mentioned the West African review that we completed last year. You know, West Africa, a bit of a departure from Egypt. I think less of a concern to myself and some of the team that joined me as I joined in 2020. We do have quite a... An extensive track record of operating and developing in Francophone West Africa. And I think the key here was to take what have been some very well run geological projects that were sort of producing or developing quite a bit of mineral inventory in terms of ounces.
23:40 But really start to take those resources and try and recognise can we develop these or or put these into reserves. And with that done, with that sort of resource work done, we set about q two of last year using some of our pretty relevant and and recent sort of, you know, cost and capital data and and expertise in West Africa to screen those projects. I think as I mentioned earlier, Deroppo... Sorry, Batty West didn't screen well for us in terms of project. We do believe there's a viable and technically capable project there. However, not of a requisite quality or scale that would make sense for CENTAMIN. So I think as we said previously, that asset is under review and looking to take that forward at some point in a strategic fashion. Somewhat stymied by the recent, obviously, political instability in Burkina Faso, which has slowed the process down, but something that we remain committed to try and create some value on behalf of CENTAMIN PLC was around Batty.
24:36 But more importantly or more encouragingly was the Doropo project. As I mentioned before, we were fairly heavy handed around the CapEx and OpEx. We wanted to make sure that this was a real opportunity. So I don't think we've been particularly sort of easy on the project. We wanted to make sure that that that something here was robust. And we're delighted the way it screened. You know, we have these sort of guidelines in our sort of investment thesis about the type of project we believe is a CENTAMIN project, you know, an eight to ten year life, ideally 200,000 ounces of production per annum with no less than one fifty, A conventional sort of mining and processing techniques, nothing particularly novel or exciting or difficult. We want to see ASIC below a thousand and ideally an NPV in excess of its capital development cost as well. And I'm delighted that when we put this screen to ROPo through those sort of parameters that something came out that we believe is a really good opportunity.
25:32 We immediately commenced the PFS that got launched in Q3 of last year. That's moving along very, very nicely. A significant amount of infill drill campaign is now completed. We've moved on to met testing, twin holes and some geotech work, some mine scheduling and resource updates going on. And of course, importantly, the baseline ESIA work is underway as well with a number of both environmental and social surveys under well. So that's underway. Sorry. So that's moving ahead very nicely. Still remain on track for a q three delivery of the PFS and then pending review of that decisions around next steps forward, which could well be moving to a full BFS and ESIA for future development of Doropo as well. As I mentioned, the Doropo itself, we really think about the project as being sort of almost two centers.
26:22 There's a sort of main cluster or central cluster, cluster, cluster. Put my teeth back in. Apologies. A central cluster where a significant majority, about three quarters of the reserve potential is hosted. And then a little way south of that is the Kilosegway deposit, which is about sort of a quarter of the ounces contained in that area there as well. As I say, relatively simple open pit mining, multiple pits, fairly shallow oxide through into transition sulfide phase, all then feeding a central CIL processing facility with potential for solar and HFO power generation and then into an industry standard tailings facility as well. So I think technically, you know, not a particularly challenging or complex project, but I think the the key to making work will be around social engagement with the multiple pits and reasonable amount of land take, although nothing too particularly sensitive in the area. And I think getting early work started on that will be... Is one of the keys to being successful at the rope as we move forward.
27:28 ABC, slightly interesting change of tact here. A 2,000,000 ounce inventory at Kona has been sort of identified and drilled off historically, and we think that is a, you know, a good start. But the thing that occurred to us as part of the new review process that we've undertaken is that actually, there's a significant amount of of this sort of, you know, like, the low so corridor that remains relatively underexplored. It is under our license. And really rather than sort of focusing on the one Kona area, we've actually now sort of stopped and held that in the Biennes while we now explore the rest of the the concession structural area as well. We think there's over 20 kilometers of of anomalous structure that still needs to be tested. We've done a fair amount of work this year in terms of soils for target identification.
28:14 That has yielded seven new soil target... The soil golden anomalies, new targets that have been identified. And those have now been effectively followed up with some mechanical trenching and the intention is to roll a drill rig on that as well. And really the concept here is to take that original sort of 2,000,000 ounce inferred resource that we have, see if we can build on that with additional targets to have additional resources and really build a project that's got the scale and the quality to support a full development opportunity as well. So half a step back at ABC, but we believe there's a lot more potential there. We've been busy this year identifying that further upside and as I say, some good target generation which we're following up on now as well. I think as you've probably seen over the Sukari work in terms of the reinvestment at Sukari for that long term success, if we look at the sort of the ability to take the Eastern Desert forward and put that discipline into West Africa, one of the things is we have to think about our capital allocation.
29:15 I think that now has remained balanced. Obviously, our sustaining CapEx at Sukari is important for us. Our growth CapEx, again, that sort of IRR above 15% at fourteen fifty in addition to those project parameters I gave you earlier. Obviously, our partnership with EMRA around how we allocate capital, if you like, all the cash flows to that. And of course, balance that out, we share all the dividends as well. And I think as we move forward now is that historically, I think the model of Sukari is a cash engine just funding the dividend and that was it. I think we're moving away now with identification of all this upside potential that we can see, all this additional growth that we've already got in the business. We've not had to go and find these projects. These are already in the business as a couple of years ago as I joined, But about bringing those opportunities forward and realizing the value for investors, we're having to balance slightly more that growth against dividend as we go forward. And I think when we looked at that as a board earlier this month, I think looking at sort of our growth aspirations of delivering what we can from the portfolio, looking at that global uncertainty around inflation right at this stage, I think the board looked to sort of to give some guidance and hence this idea of a minimum floor dividend of $05 for this year. But obviously, the ability to sort of outperform that as we go forward.
30:37 In terms of CapEx, another relatively heavy year this year for us. A little bit of that is a hangover from last year just to do with timings, predominantly around the solar plant and the PACE solar farm and the PACE plant. They were projects started in 2021 And just due to timings of equipment delivery and payments and invoices and so on, some of that CapEx has slipped over into this year. Both of those projects remain on track to be delivered this year as per the original physical schedule. It's just that some of the costs associated with their delivery have slipped into this year as well. So another reasonable year of growth CapEx, about GBP 115,000,000. Part of that was our underground equipment purchase, which we mentioned earlier as part of that move to owner mining and obviously, Paceville plant and the Sukari exploration as well. So a reasonable chunk of growth CapEx this year. Our sustaining CapEx remains relatively stable.
31:33 I think that is a fairly sort of good proxy for the medium to long term view, around about that $100,000,000 that we tend to spend on rebuilds, underground development, maintenance and that broader Sukari exploration as well. Key capital projects remain on track for us. Some good delivery last year. Obviously, the camp upgrades looking after our people. TSF two in and fully commissioned and ready to go now. Those high production truck trays, great delivery on those. That's a great initiative. Delighted with that. Solar farms I mentioned, which is a huge one for us, especially in light of Gibbons' recent diesel price increases and energy supply security and also the cost there as well. I think that's a key project for us going forward. Continued plant upgrades to ensure that we're operating as effectively and as efficiently as possible in the processing plant. And obviously, that waste stripping to get ourselves back in compliance with the long term plan for the open pit and give us that additional flexibility.
32:30 I mentioned shareholder returns earlier. I say well flagged as part of the full year 2021 results last week, two weeks ago, last week, I think. Final dividend per share of 5¢ for this year, that takes the full year to 9¢. That's a $58,000,000 dividend, a 105 for the full year, and that's $255 per ounce sold, which I think is great. In terms of our dividend yield, that's about 4.9%. As you can see, well ahead of the FTSE two fifty average of 2.9%.
33:02 That's a total of $790,000,000 return in dividend between 2014 and 2021. That's a great eight year track record. And I think as I mentioned there before, you know, that floral base for twenty twenty two of five cents US.
33:21 In terms of guidance, I think, you know, I started talking about delivery at the start of the year, and to be able to deliver against targets, you've to set those targets, and you've got to basically communicate those targets and and let everyone know what you're striving for. And I think that's one of the things that we've tried to do over last little while is is to set some clear demonstrable targets for everyone to see, and then measure anonymously and report back on our progress against them. Between twenty and twenty twenty three, we looked at cost savings and safety improvements. As I mentioned, that cost saving initiatives went from a 100 to a $150,000,000 targeted now, And we've got that 25% year on year increase or sorry, reduction in our injury frequency rates as we go forward as well. So some clear demonstrable targets that we're chasing there. And I think over a slightly longer horizon over to 2024, we're looking at that 25% production growth and free cash flow. So that 500,000 ounces per annum remains on track. We targeted a ten year underground reserve life, well ahead of where we thought we'd be on that, which is great to say that sort of eight years, and I do believe more to come and our ability to punch through that ten years and support that underground expansion.
34:29 And then that group reserve growth, again, we felt that there might be a million ounces within Sukari and 2,000,000 ounces of growth within Doropo. I think delivering 1,000,000 ounces in the first hit last year was fantastic for us. I think there's more to come this year as well as that continued growth in Doropo as well. So I think we've put some pretty clear targets down. I think they're ambitious. They weren't soft or lazy targets. The board certainly wouldn't allow myself and Ross and the team to put easily achievable targets in there. So we set some ambitious targets. I'm delighted to say that the team's formed performed brilliantly and we're we're well on our way to meeting those and and potentially stretching them again from there. And I think as we look back look out now to '22 and again, I started on '21 deliverables against strategy. And I'd like to maybe just finish this slide now against delivery against this year delivery against that same strategy.
35:18 So we think about the value maximization at Sukari. It's that transition to owner mining in the underground, some huge productivity and cost savings on the table there for us and greater flexibility as we look to really optimize that underground. We've got that underground expansion study with that resource reserve growth with us being owner operated now, our ability to deliver that. Get that solar plant commissioned second half of this year, really bring those costs in. And I think really importantly, drill off those bonanza high grade zones, understand them from a resource basis, schedule them to the mine plan and then deliver those ounces through the plants. In terms of growth and diversification, Doropo PFS, obviously, second half of this year, are a key milestone for us and hopefully start to see the market start to recognize the inherent value on that. Keep pushing ABC in terms of the systematic exploration of those new targets generated.
36:07 And I think really excited to be getting that EDX, that Eastern Desert exploration work underway as well across Egypt. In terms of stakeholder returns, the capital structure review is now well underway. I think Ross and I have flagged this a couple of times. Really thinking about how we manage the business, you know, 250,000,000 in cash on the balance sheet. There have been accusations in the past of a of a lazy balance sheet for one of a better expression. I think that, you know, retaining liquidity and flexibility is important for the business. But I guess the question is, should that be only in cash on the balance sheet? And can we look at that as a combination of cash and available undrawn liquidity and debt piece? What does that say to our growth aspirations? How do we look to fund that? And then what is a sustainable dividend through the cycle as well as we go forward?
36:52 Of course, I've mentioned our sort of, you know, minimum 5¢ floor for this year and also being cognizant of our responsibilities in Egypt and focusing on Egyptian stakeholder returns as well. So another big year ahead of us, one that I believe we've entered into with a great sense of momentum. We're through that tricky patch now this first quarter of the underground transition now. The training wheels are off. We're now running quite nicely on our own. I'm really looking to build on the first quarter success into two, three and four and really hit that annual guidance both in terms of production and ounces and their costs as we go forward from there. And with that, Alex, I'd like to maybe hand back to you. And I believe we're probably going to open up to the floor for some questions. Martin, thank you very much indeed for your presentation. Ladies and gentlemen, do please continue to submit your questions using the Q and A tab situated on the right hand corner of your screen. Just while Martin and Alex take a few months to review those questions submitted today, I'd like to remind you that the recording of the presentation, along with a copy of the slides and the published Q and A, can be accessed via your investor dashboard.
37:53 And Alex, as you can see, we have received a number of questions, both pre submitted and throughout today's presentation. And thank you to all the investors for submitting those. If I may, Alex, just hand back to you to read out those questions where appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up from you at the end. Thank you very much, Paul, and thank you, Martin. So the first question is around the evolving situation in Ukraine. Has there been any impact on our business or ability to operate? Okay. The glib and simple answer is no, not at this stage. I think that if we look back to COVID over the last two years, that really forced us to think about diversification of supply chain, multiple suppliers from different locations. It forces us to think about working capital, stock levels, spare supplies and so on. And I think in a kind of perverse way that COVID actually prepared us for almost crisis management about how we maintain operational consistency despite potential challenges. So I do think that the business is to a certain extent sort of almost sort of put itself in a position whereby it's in a much more robust position because of the results of COVID, which is a kind of, say, slightly perverse thing to think.
39:02 So at this stage, you know, we have a big domestic supply chain for about 60% of our supply chain for the mine comes domestically. Clearly, we've still got external factors in there as well. So I think from in terms of a physical supply material, no. Clearly, there are some flow on cost implications as a result of Ukraine. Diesel fuel is being an obvious one, although we do lag on a three month basis with the government set price, explosives, obviously, like that, cyanide as well. So there are a few input costs that are increasing. I think we saw those coming through in Q4 last year anyway. So I think in terms of our forecasting going forward, I think our cost guidance remains on track at this stage. We've already taken into account a number of these inflationary increases.
39:50 So I think from a Ukrainian sort of perspective, no operational impacts at this stage. As I say, it's almost as a kind of sort of a consequence of being sort of COVID prepared. And I think we'd already budgeted for a number of inflationary inputs into the business, so not seeing through there. Clearly, we'll keep a watching brief, obviously, a terrible situation in Ukraine. We'll maintain that watching brief on the business and maintain a sense of sort of business readiness to react if the situation does evolve and change from there as well. But at this stage, thankfully no significant impact. Thank you. So slightly switching tact or not slightly but significantly switching tact, how do you view M and A? Is the company a target or are the company targeting acquisitions?
40:37 Excuse me. It's easy for you to say, Alex. Put it both... Put our teeth back in here. Yes. Look. So I think, you know, the work that we've done over the last couple of years to demonstrate both the quality that we we could see in the asset to demonstrate that externally and then also identify that upside and then have plans to deliver that. You know, as the management and the board of the business, our job is to maximize, you know, shareholder return. And the way that we can do that, of course, is to is to demonstrate, you know, generation of of long term consistent cash flows through, you know, as we've said, value value maximization at Sukari and then that sort of growth and diversification piece. So so clearly, in doing this work to demonstrate the value of the business, to help drive the share price, is that that you are naturally, of course, alerting other groups to the the sort of, you know, potential in the business as well.
41:29 So it... It's a sort of slightly strange situation by putting our best foot forward as one would expect from an investor perspective is that that of course that, you know, people else look at the asset as well. Look, think Sukari is a world class asset. I've said it many times. You know, these things don't grow on trees. They are rare things in their own right. So so I think, you know, once you just sort of recognize that the the work we're doing is is in the interest of of, you know, maximizing the value of the business and attempt to strive that forward, but but recognize that that in doing so and being successful in that, then you also sort of, you know, draw attention to yourself. I do think there is a sort of theme within the market of M and A. I think that it is out there. I think, you know, certainly sort of sort of the industry is looking for consolidation at this stage. I do think that's a theme. But I think importantly for us is is that that, you know, I don't wake up in the morning thinking about us with a target on our back. I think about how we can grow and develop this business.
42:25 And and I would actually say that that we are, you know, actively now looking at opportunities for how we grow the business as well. I think the life of asset work last year allows us now with a sense of confidence to consider opportunities. It's not to say that we're gonna run off and do something crazily, but I do think that we've got a sense of confidence now in the in the medium to long term view for the business. I think there's a team in place that can execute, and we can look at development opportunities, operational opportunities, and even exploration opportunities and start to build the business as well. So so I would say that from what we can control is that we're looking to sort of maximize the value of the business, ensure that we put our best foot forward from an investor perspective and stakeholder return basis, and proactively be aware of opportunities as they arrive. And just recognize that we do have the keys to a world class asset. You know, the work we're doing is high quality.
43:15 And there is that theme in the outside market there, but it's certainly not something that we are, you know, actively sort of concerned or worrying about. We've to get on and run the business as best we can and basically look to return as much of that value for shareholders as we can. Agreed. Two two slightly speculative questions here. Should shareholders be concerned about the movement of staff from and to Barrick? Does this signal a takeover approach?
43:45 No. So I would say... Someone asked me this at a conference recently. And for my sins, I'm a Manchester United fan. And I think the analogy I used was that, you know, when you think about sort of, you know, top level Premier League clubs or Champions League clubs is is that when when one covets other, you know, teams players, you know, you you... It's unlikely that Manchester United or City or Liverpool or whoever are gonna sort of go go shopping down at the Accrington, Stanley sort of Stockport County level. You know, you're gonna basically be looking at sort of, you know, the other clubs out there. You know, you want you want the most sellers. You want the sort of the the sort of cut killing and buffets in the world, you know, Harry Canes. These are the sorts of we go shopping. And if you draw an analogy to us is that, you know, we're a large scale, you know, gold mine in Africa. We're a combined open pit with underground operation with a large operation, you know, in a relatively remote part of the world in Africa. It's it's not that remote relatively compared to other places.
44:42 So when you're looking to find the best talent, you know, out there that that have experience and and have that knowledge of of best practice as it's applied to these style of operations is that, you know, there's not that many places that you that you tend to look for that talent. And and, you know, I I think the reality is is that there's probably, you know, four or five assets of this scale and quality within the African continent. Two of them are owned and run by, you know, Barrick, their old rangold team, Lulu and Kibali. You've got the Newmont assets in Ghana. You've got some AngloGold assets. So I think the reality is is that that if you're looking for that top tier talent, you know, there are probably only two or three places that you go looking for it, you know, in terms of, you know, recruiters helping you out to look for these things and and and, you know, that's where we are. I would say that that that actually it's a compliment, you know, if you like, for one of a better expression, is that, you know, you've gone to these, you know, large scale operations, you know, high quality operations run very, very well by, you know, top tier companies.
45:39 And we've been able to lay out our vision for the company and and how we see it going forward and the opportunity within CENTAMIN. And we've got some of these, you know, really experienced high functioning individuals to basically say, I I can see where you're going. I believe in the story and I'm prepared to walk across the aisle and join you as well. So so look, I think the the sort of, you know, the the sort of... We've made a couple of expert hires out of out of Barrick. I think that's a testament to Barrick in terms of the quality of people that we've... You know, those are the sort of people that we want to target, high quality individuals that have the requisite experience. And I think it's... To me, it's quite exciting that they're prepared to... They share the vision and the excitement and the the potential within CENTAMIN and they're prepared to be involved with those and leave something as established and as you know, sort of a well run as Barry can come across and and help to sort of deliver sentiment for us as well. So no. I I I don't think it's a it's not a targeted strategy around that. It it... It's coincidental that sort of two recent hires have come from from that one group. But but I think the reality is is that it's only a handful of groups that you sort of, you know, at this level that you tend to sort of, you know, go shopping with that sort of Premier League, Champions League sort of thing.
46:47 And I should say for the record, from Alex is a Chelsea fan, so she had a clash from time to time on that base. But I'm hoping we're gonna nick her manager now in the close seat. We'll get Red Cross to United. Sadly, you can probably have some of our players now too. So just actually sticking on the speculation. Has CENTTAMIN recently hosted a tour at Sukari of Barrick manage... Barrick employees? I can say that that since I joined at the start of the pandemic in April 2020, there have been no industry visits to any of our operations. And and actually, further to that is a question asking whether members of our board have been able to visit Sukari in person given the the substantial board transformation in 2020.
47:34 We are... We only got two that haven't been able to get to site yet, and that is all down to sort of COVID travel restrictions and their own diaries. They've been sort of in lockdown and restricted for quite some time. So all but two, but they are scheduled to get there very shortly. So, no, I I think fair to say. I actually had a a board member on-site with me a couple of three weeks ago, and they catch them there as well. So, no, definitely. They are all keen to get down there and sort of, you know, see what's happening, the changes that are taking place, meet the new operational team. I'm quite excited about it. No, all but two, but but soon to be rectified.
48:05 Apologies for the slightly personal question, but more broadly, how how many shares do the board and management have in the company? Sorry. Specifically, the board. How many shares do the board have in the company? And is there any intention to buy more at these levels?
48:21 So look, I think the numbers are... It's about 1,500,000 shares owned by the board at this stage. In terms of sort of company policy, there are no sort of set hard and fast rules for board members. That is a, you know, a personal financial capacity and decision for those individual board members. Ross and I, slightly different. We've got some additional rules around sort of any sort of bonus levels above certain levels have to be approaching to shares as well. But at this stage, it's about 1,500,000 shares and that is entirely at sort of the individual's discretion and I guess capability and ability to purchase shares at any given point.
49:00 Thank you. Moving to the dividend. Why has the dividend decreased? Is this representative of a loss in confidence in delivery of of man... Of management?
49:12 No. No. I'd actually turn that around as quite the opposite, would say, actually. I would say that that I think, you know, let's just be clear, it's a floor. So it's not a 5¢ dividend. It's a floor dividend, and I think that's that's appropriate given sort of, you know, uncertainties we have as we talked about inflation and and going forward. I think, you know, that rebalancing between the the fact we've been able, as a team, been able to identify all this this growth opportunity in the ore body, in the concession, within Egypt, within West Africa. And I think it's it's a confidence that management's been able to identify and can deliver this growth as well. So I think I think just we need to sort of, you know, take cognizant to remember that it's a floor level at this stage. We could outperform that depending on production, cost, and cash flow, but that's where it is. And I think it's that slight rebalance between between that. And look at sort of 5¢ as a floor level, that would still put us pretty comfortably at the top end of the range of of yield plays across the FTSE and across the mining space as well.
50:09 So so I think people just need to to sort of recognize that as this concept of the cut. As I say, I think it's a different sort of it's just a prudent approach at this stage. And that sort of that move to a combination of growth and yield, which I think, you know, is a compelling investment case. I can't think of too many other companies that can offer, you know, so much significant embedded growth and maintain a yield through that process. And I think that's part of that balance sheet strength, the operational strength at Sukari, the confidence we have in management to do all of these things concurrently and in part place to that sort of capital review we touched on earlier as well. Agreed. I think it's really positive that there's so much competition for capital. It makes for difficult board decisions. Listen, look, that's the point, Alex. I I think, you know, previously when it was mine Sukari give the cash back in the dividend, it it was an easy decision. Now it's like, well, listen, we... We've got this opportunity to expand the underground and produce more gold.
51:05 We've got this great opportunity to explore across the Eastern Desert. We've got a viable sort of, you know, opportunity in West Africa within the business, you know. You start having to compete for the for capital, have to sort of rank it, have to have that balanced allocation as well. And and that's, you know, that's the job of us as management to create this and deliver this opportunity. And then in conjunction with the board, balance that sort of growth versus yields, we take it forward. So... No. I I turn that around. I don't think it's a lack of confidence in mind. I think it's quite the opposite. I think we're now functioning in a way that that a that a company should do.
51:35 So this is this is something we get frequently asked and and it is a is a misunderstanding, at least from my standpoint is. Why has CENTAMIN been slow to get back to the production levels prior to the October pit wall stability concern? Okay. So that's October 2020, I think. Yes.
51:58 I think there's probably... There's two separate issues there that that I think over time will unfortunately become conflated or or sort of blurred together, and I think we should just look at those separately. So if you take the the the October 2020 instability, that really was around the fact that we had a high grade zone in the stage four, stage five west area of the open pit. And those ounces were scheduled to be mined late twenty twenty and were sort of this relatively sort of small but higher grade zone within the pit. What we identified through our geotechnical program, which is a highlight of the fact they're working very well, was that we started to detect a small amount of movement in this area And as luck would have it, of course, is that this, you know, we call it sort of bench failures as well. They're sort of localized small bench failures. They happen at pretty much every open pit around the world.
52:50 They're not part of, you know, overall slope stability. They're they're small sort of block type failures as well. Unfortunately for us, this... That one area of instability happened to sit directly above the high grade zone. So prudence to us said that actually, we shouldn't be putting people and equipment underneath it, you know, to mine that high grade zone in order to basically, you know, at risk of that until we've been able to sort of rehabilitate that that area of instability and do that. So so those ounces that that were sort of, you know, that that weren't mined in 2020, they were deferred into 2021. So those ounces were never lost. You know,
53:25 we we we didn't lose those ounces. They were just rescheduled to be mined later in the piece as well. And those ounces were mined successfully last year, and that area is now back working as planned through '21 and and into this year as well. So I think you have to look at at at that particular issue as as being something that was prudent, something that was importantly driven by safety concerns and actually was at not a loss, but a deferral of ounces to be sequenced at a later date as well.
53:51 More broadly, the reset is that as we've noted that from the open pit perspective, the sequencing that we're in right now is that we are predominantly mining from the lower grade north end of the pit. I think in the sort of first life of asset that we put together in December 2020 and then the sort of the update we gave a year later in December 2021 is that we identified that the open pit needed this accelerated stripping program. It needed to open itself back up and then allow access to the higher grade east and west contact zones in the open pit. And while we were doing that, that while we were opening up that stripping, opening, pushing those walls back, getting into the higher grades, we would be living on the sort of the more marginal stage five north material that sits at sort of 0.8 to 0.9 of a gram as opposed to north of a gram that we see in the east and west. So in terms of the sort of the sequence of when are we getting back to 500,000 ounces, that's all about sequencing of the open pit, that's about living on that sort of slightly lower grade stage five north materials, the main mill feed for about an eighteen, twenty four month window.
54:54 Before we then, we've got those walls pushed back east and west and then can start blending that high grade material back in as well. So there are two separate issues there. There was a short term impact of the of the deferral of the the high grade ounces in late twenty twenty. That is just a localized area. The longer term two, three, four years step ourselves back to 500,000 ounces, that's about opening the pit up, getting those high grade working areas back in, and until we're able to do that, living off a slightly lower grade stage five north area until we're able to access those high grades. So so they are two separate issues. They seem to, unfortunately, become slightly conflated with each other, but they are separate, and that's the set... That's the difference between the
55:30 two. Thank you for for clarifying. Actually, sticking with the waste stripping, it's it's quite interesting. The next two questions are coming at it from two completely... Completely different angles. One is, when do we expect to see strip ratios that are at... That are running realistically at a sorry, exactly when will we see strip ratios that are realistic to running a profitable mine? And is the company being aggressive enough on the execution of the waste stripping program?
55:57 Okay. Okay. Alex, I don't suppose you could just pop to slide 29 while I just start to answer that. That's the delivering operational consistency. So I'll take the second part first in terms of aggressiveness. Look, I think the simple fact of the matter is is that there's only so much equipment you can put in one area of the pit. You know, there's... You you can't throw infinite trunks and infinite shovels in there and sort of, you know, do all the work in a single go. So so I think when we think about the sort of the the accelerated stripping program that we're putting in place that will get ourselves back to that flexibility that we want and get back into those higher grade areas is that, you know, we are physically constrained with how much equipment we can throw at that. You know, you you you can't have equipment working on top of each other. It just doesn't become efficient and actually gets in each other's way and slows the process down.
56:45 So so I think from an aggressiveness perspective, I don't think we could be much more aggressive than we have been. I I certainly don't see other ways that we could throw additional cash at this in in order to basically accelerate that program. I think we're we're pretty much on the limit of where we can
57:00 in terms of space, pit layout, working areas, available waste dumps, all that type of stuff in there as well. We we... I think we've pushed the accelerator pretty much as hard as we can to get this thing done as well. But there's no benefit to us to to sort of, you know, to slow down that that that sort of sort of catch up program as I say, because unfortunately, it just, you know, it defers the the better grade and the ounce production profile from there as well. So so I think from an aggressiveness perspective, we've hit that as hard as we can pushing on track from that. As you can see from here, the top right, which is the open pit profile is that, you know, we've got some some accelerated stripping through two, three, and four. Then you see it stepping down into 25, 26, and then down from 27 through to 30.
57:45 And then as you obviously get to the bottom of the pit as it ends towards the last three years of mine life, that strip ratio really does sort of drop down as you sort of pretty much only really mining ore at that stage with limited waste as well. So so when we look at that as a a a a strip ratio basis, it is that sort of, you know, we're
58:02 at these higher levels for a a little while yet, but importantly then sort of stepping down sequentially as we've got the pit open back up as we start to push back to go down. I would say, you know, sort of '24 into '25, we start getting ourselves back to to normalized levels as well. I I think importantly, when we look at that from a a a processing side is that the the way we've designed the the production schedule now is that some... From open pit feed
58:27 in terms of the sort of the higher grade material analysis coming out of that blended with the underground sort of as well is that putting those two together plus use of stockpile materials that you start to see from the processing plants at graphic there is that we're able to fill the mill consistently and fill the mill consistently at a at a pretty standard sort of pretty consistent grade as well. And as we know, plants work best when they're sort of filled and kept at a fairly sort of constant head grade, That's how you really optimize recovery coming out of it as well. So there has been a bit of engineering around
59:00 grading the open pit versus stripping versus maintenance of mill feed between that and the underground. And we've designed it that way such that you can see a slightly sawtooth from grade in the open pit, also tons up and down in terms of waste versus all. You can see the same in the underground, but when we blend that together with the stockpile material is that what we get is is a nice production level coming through. And this is the base case by the way. This is that kind of interim case that is where, you know, is is kind of the foundation that will build from there. And of course, what we expect to see with the underground expansion study is that we'll get more tonnes from the underground and that will displace some of the ore tonnes from the open pit and stockpiles and hence pump that grade up that we see into the processing plant and get us back to that 500,000 ounce level of steady state. And then on top of that again is those potential for bonanzas to come in. Again, they're relatively small tonnage as if we're pulling 50 to a 100,000 tons of that material into 12 and a half million ton processing facility.
59:57 As you can see, it's negligible from a tons basis, but has a real kicker in terms of ounce production profile. Sorry. I was on mute. And and interestingly, the the flip side of that is we've had a different investor ask, you know, given the current economic environment, particularly with gold at 1,900, would the board consider spreading the stripping program to reduce that impact?
1:00:21 I I... Well, it's it's always the balance. Right? I think that's always the balance between sort of, you know, cash management, but also getting the stripping done opens up the high grade areas in the open pit, gives us that operational flexibility, gives us that additional confidence in terms of delivery. So, you know, slowing down and spending less money now, it's it's like ripping a plaster off. You know? You you wanna basically get it done as quickly as possible, get that done within reason, and then that allows you back into that higher grade material, allows you back into that sort of, you know, gives you more operational flexibility in terms of working areas, and really just give you more confidence in the consistency of delivery as well. So so I think it it... It's... We've got to get on with it. We are getting on with it as well, which will then sort of give us that sort of medium to long term consistency that we're striving for.
1:01:07 Great.
1:01:09 So I'm gonna read this one verbatim. Is this a true or a false statement? A two d's... A two d's geoseismic program was completed in 2019. Initial data interpretation was very encouraging, identifying multiple potential gold systems. So this is an extraction from a statement we made in the 2019 annual report around the high size survey. Now I appreciate this was before your time, but
1:01:38 shareholders would like clarification on that point. Yeah. Okay. So so as you say, I joined April 2020. So so one of the things that that that I did relatively in the pieces that the the exploration manager and the mineral resource plan, I think we... As we cited in in the twenty twenty first life basket update was that, you know, people and processes, we we really focus on geology. And the exploration manager that that sort of joined CENTAMIN, I worked with previously at Toro and he's a... I think he's been involved with four discoveries across a forty year career in Africa. So he's, you know, he's a he's a pretty good geo. We looked at all the, you know, the current state of players we joined and and and tried to look at sort of, you know, how do we best take the company forward from this point.
1:02:21 Howard, he's, you know, he spent, I'd say, forty odd years in in the junior sector, been involved with four discoveries, so, you know, an excellent track record. Because he'd been involved in the junior sector, he hates spending money. You know, he really always drives for value. He is... Probably much to his wife's disappointment, he's, you know, he's quite sort of conscious around cost and and and expense and really looking to make sure you get a good bang for your buck. So what what I can tell you is that when we reviewed the data in 2020, the the seismic work done by HiSeis, as we understood it, is that the the two d survey was done as a calibration almost effectively. That that they took known areas where we believe there was porphyry and and potential gold host mineralization and effectively ran the two d survey over these areas to effectively calibrate and demonstrate that that, you know, this tool could be used to potentially identify other structures. And the sort of best proof of concept was to was to run these surveys over over known areas and and sort of, you know, get that calibration.
1:03:21 So so that's... That data is what we
1:03:23 looked at and and it... Fair to say, I think that the sort of the the sort of the the calibration was a success, if you like, that that the surveys had identified, you know, known areas of of of potential mineralization structure. I think where we then changed our view was that the full three d seismic survey as bags was in the order of about $15,000,000 to do. And and, you know, I mean, that's a chunk of change. You can do a lot of work with $15,000,000. And and I think that the concern was is that, you know, the time and money spent on $50,000,000 of of three d seismic survey, I think, you know, the feeling from from our perspective as the new management looking at that is that we could do more with that money and get more results, you know, and better use of shareholders funds.
1:04:10 And I think, you know, as we touched on before, the evidence of that is that airborne survey. We felt that that sort of, you know, it's gonna be just under a million bucks to fully fly the concession with this airborne survey. And we thought that between MAG and radiometrics plus V10 and Z10 is that that the information we would get from that would be equally as good to our mind as as a three d seismic survey. So we were forced, you know, we were sort of confronted with the sort of a two d seismic survey as a calibration exercise, which looked like it it could work, and then a $15,000,000 ticket to go and do this work, or a million bucks plus, you know, going back to mapping, soils, trenching, and airborne. So there's more traditional sort of exploration techniques, which have proved to be very successful, you know, pretty much everywhere on a global basis. And we took the decision not to move forward with the three d seismic survey on a cost value benefit basis
1:05:12 we just we just didn't... We just thought there was a better way to get more information, more cost effectively for shareholders. So we didn't take the three d forward. We switched to the the airborne survey plus other techniques. No. That that does clarify. Thank you very much. So with regards to the new Egyptian bid round, so obviously, you're working with an industry industry partnership and the government to to agree with new exploitation terms. If those terms are better than the concession agreement terms for Sukari, is there a chance to renegotiate over Sukari? So I think first and foremost is that that... And and I've had this direct conversation with the minister actually, is that that economically for Egypt, the the level at which they've pitched the new terms economically is about the same for Egypt. So our royalty plus 50% profit share gives the government an, you know, a certain percentage return.
1:06:14 And a combination of royalty, net profit, interest free carry, plus taxation gives them about the same return. And the minister was quite... Had a wry smile as
1:06:24 he said, look, we we don't see, you know, we don't see this as a as a worsening of of the economic terms for Egypt. We see that it's a rebadging that ultimately gives us about the same take and, by the way, puts us kind of mid range of of of international sort of sort of, you know, regulatory or fiscal regime. And I and I think there's that recognition that, you know, we as guardians of international sort of, you know, funding is that we can, you know, we can take our exploration and our development dollars anywhere. And and so, you know, so Egypt is in a competitive process to a certain extent. You've got to think about geological potential,
1:06:58 sort of, you know, regulatory framework and fiscal regime. And I think the the the concession agreement we have probably sits as kind of mid range. It's not the cheapest. It's certainly not the most expensive. And I think the new bid round terms sit there as well. So so to be honest with you, economically, it's gonna give us about the same, to be honest with you. I think the concession agreement has worked amazingly well. It's transparent. It's simple. It works over an extended period, the last twelve years. Pretty much every month, we we sell the gold, and we bring the cash back onshore. We profit share with the government, and we take the balance offshore back up to Jersey. So so to be honest with you, the same economic terms, an act of parliament, it's it's a law two two two, and it works well, and it gives us the same terms. So I'm struggling to think why, you know, we do that. Look, if the minister did a a one eighty u-turn and completely changed massively beneficially the the new terms of the bid
1:07:52 round, which I just can't see that happening and why would he? Then then no. I I I don't think that we would look to do that from a from a Sukari perspective. I guess put somebody that ain't broke and don't fix it probably would be what I'd say, Alex. We've got a lot... We've got quite a few questions here, so we'll we'll try and get through as many as as we possibly can. So with regards to transitioning the underground to owner operator, what are the key kind of performance targets that you're hoping to deliver from that transition?
1:08:24 And do we need to buy any new underground equipment? Okay. I'll try I'll try and speed up the the the cadence a little bit. So we wanna get back to that million tons of of ROM to surface. So back to our productivity levels and our development levels. We wanna get basically our costs down in terms of annualized cost savings for that for that level of performance. And in terms of and in terms of equipment, we've probably got about eighteen months, two years worth of the equipment we purchased from Barminco at end of their contract. We will, of course, now with that extended mine life, buy new equipment. Part of the underground expansion study will tell us how much and what type of equipment we need. We pretty much know, but let's confirm that. And it would be deposits later this year for delivery in '23.
1:09:10 Okay. Wonderful. And what what would you say are the company's key exploration targets across the entire portfolio over the next eighteen months?
1:09:25 Bonanza's underground expansion, Doropo Infill, EDX, as I see it today and and ABC as probably the last cab off the rank. That can change with a single drill hole. Right? You know, you have a bit of success. But... So I would say today that that's that's probably where we are. I think brownfield... You know, ounces that we can put into Sukari ore body that goes straight into the mill, they're most value accretive. I would say then satellite feed... Oh, sorry. Infilter Doropo to push that forward, closely followed by satellite feeder in in Nugros. Let's say that that block around Sukari, if we're able to find a a deposit that could be trucked into Sukari, that has a huge value to us because we don't have to spend the CapEx to extract it.
1:10:10 It'd be, you know, trucked in there as well. And then so... And then probably ABC is the last cap off the rank. And you mentioned Durepa there. So Durepa provides the opportunity for a positive rerate in the share price. How and when can you get the market to attribute value to this project? Look. I I think we're increasingly pushing it now with investors and and analysts and the like. I think at the moment, it's a PEA, so people probably attach a point two, you know, point two five sort of PNAB to it, so, you know, value to to to NAV. Think I once you get a PFS done, that pushes it up there. And once you get a DFS, again, you sort of move up to that sort of point six, point seven. So so I think there will be a combination of of one, as we continue to do the work, people have increasing confidence on it, and increasing confidence will allow them to attach a higher PNAV multiple to it. And I think that will start to come into people's valuations as we go forward. So I think it's on people's radar. We are pushing it. And I think as we de risk it, that will naturally sort of increase its value from an investment thesis basis as we get more confidence in it, and it will... Should hopefully start to drive some of the value of the business.
1:11:19 And assuming a positive PFS, will you go straight to build or will you do BFS? Oh, the the DFS first. DFS. Right. If you get, you know, if you get something wrong, you have to pay twice. And if you're paying the second time around to fix the first time mistake, it's a lot more expensive. And I've seen so many companies that shortcut straight to DFS thinking they're being smart. They save twelve months worth of time and $10,000,000 worth of study cost, but cost themselves 50 to $100,000,000 in in poor capital decisions that happens to fix later on. So I'd rather pay once and get it right than pay twice and have to fix a a mess up. So a bit old school and proper like that. PFS is about evaluating options, preferred configuration, then you engineer that preferred configuration through DFS, and then you move to build. What I would say is that the experience that we have within the group previously is that, you know, you don't have to be as linear with that process. You can start to overlap things for a shortened time. You can start some of your engineering work during the end of DFS.
1:12:19 You can start some of your preconstruction works as you're finishing up the DFS and you're confident. So it doesn't have to be straight linear, I think if you miss out the DFS step, I think you take a huge risk, and I think that could become quite costly down the track.
1:12:32 Could you provide a little bit more information on the capital structure review, and what would be the rationale for taking on any debt? Okay.
1:12:43 I think we're bit of a non... Anomaly at the moment. We're probably one of the few companies out there without any debt on the balance sheet, you know, and you think it's sort of corporate finance theory one zero one and, you know, sort of having some gearing in the business is from that perspective makes sense. I think we've talked about sort of a lazy balance sheet, sort of all that cash sitting there. I would say that in terms of flexibility, we think about the Sukari concession agreement and the cost recovery that that, you know, we fund CapEx, and then we get that back on a three year basis. Solar is a good example, $36,000,000 build, and then 12, 12, and 12. And that to me feels like it's a revolving credit facility where you draw down the 36 and then repay the 12 over subsequent years. So help to manage that cash flow from a a a perspective. So I think there's any number of good reasons to look at it. I think from the cash management perspective, I think, you know, we'd like to have, say, a couple $100,000,000 of liquidity in the business. That doesn't necessarily have to all be cash. It could be $100,000,000 of undrawn facility plus 100,000,000 of cash. If we think about sort of, as I say, that cost recovery model funding CapEx at Sukari, drawing down and repaying helps to sort of smooth that out. If we want to go forward and and develop the repo, having an existing bank group in the business certainly allows us to to to, you know, to sort of, you know, go forward more quickly on that basis.
1:14:00 And I think then when we think about the model going forward about sustainable sort of, you know, balance of growth versus yield, about sort of, you know, how we fund that growth going forward as well. So I think to me, with the confidence we have in the long term plan now, we've got some confidence on cash flows. We can see where we're going. We've got our growth strategy, and we've got our growth opportunities, you know, and then bringing that balance sheet down to a more acceptable or more traditional level of cash and liquidity through a debt piece and having those strategic relationship with banks. I think it's quite an important piece. And then allow us to really look at what's sustainable through the cycle level of dividend that we can take forward on the business.
1:14:38 Great. I've got a couple of cost questions here. So quite specifically, are you of the underground mining... Have the underground mining cost gone up? I don't know whether that's retrospectively or whether that's speaking about the transition to owner operator. Apologies.
1:14:57 Oh, so so I I I think on a on a... Yeah. Obviously, you got fixed variable costs. So, you know, you got your fixed cost that you have to pay no matter whether you make... You know, you move a ton or a million tons on that basis. So I would say that when we think about the total quantum of cost that we would spend in any given year, contractor versus owner, you know, there's at least a 15% margin that you would say that a contractor charges you. There is the g and a that a contractor has that you now don't need to spend because you brought it in house as well. So there's there's... Those costs will will come out of the system. We'll do those directly. We do believe there's opportunity to to do the operations more efficiently and with better levels of productivity as well. And we just... We do believe it gives that operational flexibility as well. So on a look forward basis, the reason to move to owner mining is that that we see operational flexibility, productivity gains, but ultimately, you know, significant cost savings of going owner through margin, g and a deletion and productivity gains as well. So we very much believe that the that the move to underground mining, a short term sort of, you know, sort of transition phase as we bed it down, Well, get them off-site, move into place, and then get it going. But medium to long term and certainly with that eight, nine year at least mine life ahead of us in the underground, we think there's some significant savings we've made.
1:16:16 Okay. Thank you. And then
1:16:20 next one is... So three more to go. So when will the solar plant be commissioned?
1:16:25 And what cost savings are associated with bringing this online? Q three is currently looking at and just over $1,000,000 a month at current diesel price. Wonderful. And what are the key catalysts for the next six months? What can shareholders look forward to from an off cycle perspective? Doropo PFS coming through, I would say, underground expansion study coming through. And I'm sure we'll do bit of a geology exploration update at the appropriate time when we've got some a reasonable amount of results in that we can talk to as well. So I think they're outside of the usual sort of reporting. I think there are some things during this twenty two year that we can look forward to bringing to the table that I think will be of interest and and help to sort of, you know, demonstrate that vision.
1:17:13 And the the last question that I have here is, at this share price, what do you think the market is missing in the investment case?
1:17:23 Look. I I think starting at the other end, I think the ropo coming through, I think that's starting to come in now. I think people are looking at that coming through. I think the again, the consistency of delivery, continuing to deliver into sort of, you know, aims around production and guidance as well. I think that's coming through. And I think that people are seeing, obviously, you know, another reasonably heavy year of CapEx coming through, but can understand that that's coming through from there and the foundations that will lay for you know, future success as well. So so look, I think that it's interesting to me that the... Over the last two years, the the style of engagement with institutional investors has gone from, you know, lots of focus on the here and now, are you on top of it? What's happening?
1:18:08 And and the the conversations we're having with new and and potential investors is very much now focused on, you know, how do you live with the upside? Where's the growth? Where does it go from here? And it is a very different tone as well. So so I I think that credibility is has has been... Is is being established. I think, you know, that sort of, you know, concept of the show me stock is is is now... We're we're getting on top of that. We're moving now much more into people having confidence and and the plans and understanding where the growth is as
1:18:34 we go. So I think it's probably a little bit of little bit of that sort of sort of, you know, a a continued delivery. Can we keep delivering in line with stated plans? And I think, you know, staying on top of that, I think it's people looking at the cash flow right now recognizing it's another year of heavy lifting. Want to make sure we can deliver through that as well. Seeing the outcome of the the capital review, how do we fund both of this sort of, you know, growth and development sort of... Sorry, in yield type play. But I also think that sort of, you know, that's all those sort of, you know, cautionary watch elements are are now being more than outweighed by people can see the upside and and starting to deliver, you know, some more drilling results on on on the sort of
1:19:12 bonanzas, helping to bring in some of the exploration around EDX and potential there as well. So so my my sense is that we're at that sort of, you know, fulcrum point now that sort of credibility now and with those catalysts coming through this year that we can really start to deliver that and get things moving. Wonderful. To anybody on the line, I'm I'm sorry if we didn't get to your question. You know, some of them were answered in the presentation, but please obviously email them directly to the company if you do seek further answers. Alex, thank you so much for running the q and a session. And, Martin, thanks for covering off so many questions from investors. And just to reiterate what Alex said, we will review those questions. We'll pop those responses where appropriate to do so on the platform. Martin, perhaps before just redirecting investors to provide you with some feedback, which I know is particularly important to you, I could ask you just for a final few closing comments, please.
1:20:02 Thanks very much. Look, as I say, look, really satisfied with 2021 as a delivery year right across the strategy and with individual projects and the direction of travel. I think we've got a great team in place now. I think we've got some real quality across the business. I think we've got some clear plans. We offer a pretty compelling growth and yield story right now. And I think, you know, we've got a huge amount of optionality both at Sukara and across the Eastern Desert as well. So I think it's really exciting. I think we've done a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of laying that long term foundations for success, you know, another year to navigate to get these projects online. But I really do believe that there's a lot more to come from this company. Team in place has delivered that and a real sense of momentum heading into that as well. So... Yeah. Look. Thank you very much
1:20:49 and always happy to engage and and and sort of answer questions and and sort of talk through sort of, know, where we're going with this and the usual channels at BioAlex. I would say that that for those unaware that Alex will be stepping away from business for a a short period as she enters maternity leave. So this is probably the last chance you'll get to engage with her for just a short while. And then going forward, there'll be my colleagues at Michael Stoner and Emily Hudson who will be attempting to to fill the non inconsiderable shoes of of Alex. So I just wish Alex the
1:21:19 very best and say that as we go forward, that people may engage with other people in the business as we wish Alex all the best. Thank you. Martin, Alex, thank you, and congratulations. Thank you for updating investors today. Can I please ask investors not to close the session as we automatically redirect it to provide your feedback in order the team can better understand your views and expectations? This will only take a few moments to complete, but it's greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of CENTAMIN PLC, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That concludes today's session. Thank you, and good afternoon to you all.
Follow Centamin PLC into a list and get an email when it puts out news.
Head of Corporate Access & Investor Relations at CENTAMIN PLC
CEO at CENTAMIN PLC