Archrock (NYSE:AROC) Q1 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 In the Permian, we expect mid single digit gas growth supported by rising gas to oil ratios and new takeaway later this year. Geopolitical risk in The Middle East, including Iran related volatility, reinforces the strategic value of U. S. Supply and supports tighter global LNG fundamentals. Longer term, the outlook is improving. The EIA's annual energy outlook 2026 raised its view of U. S. Gas production and demand versus last year, driven in part by LNG growth and AI data center power needs, with production projected to rise from 107 Bcf a day in 2025 to approximately 133 Bcf to 151 Bcf a day by 2050.

0:53 That would represent an increase in natural gas production of between 2441%, reinforcing our view of a longer term growth trajectory for both natural gas production and for compression. Moving to our segments. Contract operations delivered outstanding performance, supported by excellent execution and continued high demand for our compression fleet, particularly our large horsepower and electric motor drive units, extending our track record of strong results. Our fleet remained highly utilized during the quarter, exiting at 95% utilization, reflecting continued high demand and the high quality of our fleet and sustaining strong utilization in our contract operations business over a multiyear period.

1:45 That durability is also evident in the time on location, with the blended fleet averaging approximately six years and units of 1,500 horsepower or greater averaging approximately eight years in largely midstream applications. At quarter end, we had 4,500,000 operating horsepower. Operating horsepower declined by approximately 43,000 as newbuild deliveries during the quarter were more than offset by the sale of approximately 40,000 non strategic horsepower, including 21,000 active horsepower. As a reminder, we also sold approximately 123,000 horsepower, including 84,000 active horsepower at the end of 2025.

2:32 Taken together, these sales reduced first quarter adjusted EBITDA by approximately $3,000,000 on a sequential basis. Monthly revenue per horsepower moves higher on a sequential and year over year basis. In 2026, we continue to expect monthly revenue per horsepower to benefit from the full year carryover of the rate increases implemented in 2025 and increases in 2026. We achieved a quarterly adjusted gross margin percentage of 72%. Consistent profitability above 70% continues to be driven by strong pricing, disciplined execution and a continued focus on per horsepower cost management.

3:22 Over the last several years, we've executed well on the cost inputs into our operations, offsetting some of the cost increases we experienced during the recent higher inflationary environment, including higher costs for labor and parts. We remain focused on continuing this level of execution through technology deployment and ongoing cost management. Moving to our aftermarket services segment, performance was solid in the first quarter. As expected, Q1 is seasonally slower. Even so, we continue to deliver strong profitability levels in the business, reflecting disciplined execution and an ongoing focus on higher quality, higher margin work.

4:09 Turning to capital allocation. We remain disciplined and returns focused, prioritizing growth investment and shareholder returns supported by a strong balance sheet. We reaffirmed our 2026 growth capital plan of $250,000,000 to $275,000,000 for fleet investment, reflecting strong demand and our desire to continue growing our profitable platform through high return new build investments. We expect substantial free cash flow to support increasing shareholder returns. We declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share, up approximately 16% year over year while maintaining robust coverage. We also have flexibility for additional shareholder returns, including $113,000,000 of remaining authorization under our share repurchase program as of quarter end, which we view as a tool within our returns based framework and may use more actively during periods of market dislocation.

5:14 We exited the quarter below our long term leverage target of between three times to 3.5 times and expect to operate below three times in the near term, preserving flexibility for both organic and inorganic growth as well as continued shareholder returns. In summary, Archrock is delivering consistent strong results underpinned by a culture of disciplined execution and continuous improvement. Looking ahead, we see a meaningful runway for profitable growth with earnings supported by our returns based capital allocation and durable tailwinds for natural gas infrastructure, including compression. Before I hand it over, I want to recognize Doug Aaron.

6:01 As we previously announced, Doug plans to retire by the end of the year. On behalf of Archrock, thank you, Doug, for more than seven years of outstanding service and leadership during an exciting and transformative period for the company. Doug has been a key leader and a trusted advisor to me, the rest of the executive leadership team and our Board. And to be clear, he's not going anywhere just yet. Doug will stay in his role until a successor is named to ensure a smooth transition. With that, I'll turn the call over to Doug to walk through our first quarter and twenty twenty six outlook. Thank you, Brad. Certainly appreciate the kind words. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Let's review our first quarter results and then cover our current financial outlook for 2026.

6:54 Net income for the first quarter of twenty twenty six was $73,800,000 Excluding transaction related and restructuring costs and adjusting for the associated tax impact, we delivered adjusted net income of $74,400,000 or $0.42 per share. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $221,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty six. Underlying business performance exceeded our basis for guidance and results also benefited from a $10,000,000 net gain from the sale of non strategic compression and other assets. Strength in segment fundamentals was somewhat offset by higher selling, general and administrative expense in the quarter.

7:41 That performance translated into adjusted free cash flow of $92,000,000 and adjusted free cash flow after dividend of $52,000,000 in the quarter, driven by durable operating cash flow and further supported by proceeds from the non strategic asset sales supporting our ongoing commitment to return capital to shareholders. SG and A expenses were $45,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty six compared to $37,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, with the increase primarily driven by higher long term incentive compensation for two reasons. First, a little more than half of this increase was the result of the sharply higher stock price in the quarter.

8:27 Second, the balance of the increase was the result of a GAAP accounting acceleration of expense recognition for long term incentive compensation under an executive retention agreement, which we do not expect will recur in the remaining periods of this year. Turning to our business segments. Contract operations revenue came in at $331,000,000 in the first quarter, up 10% compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty five, driven by growth in horsepower and higher pricing. Operating horsepower of $4,530,000 at the end of the quarter was up approximately $250,000 year over year from $4,280,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty five.

9:16 Our adjusted gross margin percentage of 72% in the first quarter of twenty twenty six reflects consistent profitability. While reported adjusted gross margin percentage was down from 78% last quarter, the figure increased slightly on a sequential basis after excluding the impact of out of period cash tax settlements and credits we benefited from during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five that were more one time in nature. In our aftermarket services segment, we reported first quarter twenty twenty six revenue of $43,000,000 reflecting lower service activity and a seasonal slowdown. Even with the expected seasonal softness, AMS delivered a great level of profitability.

10:05 First quarter twenty twenty six adjusted gross margin percentage was 23% consistent with the high end of our guidance range for the year. We ended the quarter with total debt of $2,400,000,000 In January, we issued $800,000,000 of senior notes to fund the April 1 repurchase of 100 percent of our senior notes due 2028 at par, which moves our nearest bond maturity to 2032. Pro form a for this activity, available liquidity was approximately $600,000,000 Our leverage ratio at quarter end was 2.6 times compared to 2.7 times in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty five as we continue to operate comfortably below our stated target of three times in the near term.

10:57 We recently declared a first quarter dividend of $0.22 per share or $0.88 on an annualized basis. This is consistent with the fourth quarter twenty twenty five dividend level and up approximately 16% year over year. Cash available for dividend for the first quarter of twenty twenty six totaled $134,000,000 leading to robust quarterly dividend coverage of 3.5 times. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 171,000 shares for approximately $4,400,000 at an average price of $25.87 per share. This leaves approximately $113,000,000 in remaining capacity for additional share repurchases. Given our solid first quarter performance, we reaffirmed our full year 2026 guidance with yesterday's earnings release.

11:51 We remain on track to deliver our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $865,000,000 to $915,000,000 Segment performance in the first quarter was consistent with the basis of that guidance with strength in the underlying business partially offset by higher SG and A. We do not expect the $3,700,000 of long term compensation expense acceleration to recur in future periods for the remainder of 2026. In contract operations, our outlook reflects year over year growth in horsepower, revenue and profitability. In AMS, we expect revenue and profitability to remain strong.

12:37 Turning to capital. On a full year basis, we continue to expect total 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately 400,000,000 to $445,000,000 Within that total, we reiterate growth CapEx of $250,000,000 to $275,000,000 to support investment in new build horsepower and repackaged CapEx to meet continued customer demand. Growth is expected to be funded by operations with additional support from non strategic asset sale proceeds as we continue to high grade our fleet, including year to date proceeds totaling approximately $21,000,000 Maintenance CapEx is forecasted to be approximately 125,000,000 to $135,000,000 up versus 2025 due to increased planned overall activity.

13:32 We also anticipate approximately 25,000,000 to $35,000,000 in other CapEx, primarily for new vehicles. In summary, we remain confident in the strength of our platform and in the long term opportunity in front of us. The combination of a fully utilized fleet and the continued build out of U. S. Midstream infrastructure to support both expected growth in LNG exports and rising power demand reinforces our view that the need for reliable compression remains strong. Against that backdrop, we are focused on excellent execution, delivering for our customers, advancing the technologies we've put in place and adhering to a disciplined returns based approach to capital allocation to grow the business and create long term value for our shareholders.

14:26 With that, Carrie, I believe we are ready to open the line for questions. Thank you. Your first question will come from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start on the guidance. You made the comment that your first quarter underlying business performance is exceeding the basis for guidance, but you didn't raise guidance here. So is that just a function of the higher SG and A in Q1 or conservatism or is there something else?

15:18 Yes. Look, I would say and I can't remember exactly what we did last year because I know we had an acquisition middle of the year, but it is for us historically to not do anything with guidance after only a quarter is not something that is unusual. And I think that it just feels early in the year. We've given a guidance range that we feel comfortable with and we'll continue to look at that as we move through the year. Okay. Fair enough. Appreciate that. And then wondering if you can just give us your latest view on cat equipment lead time and how the order book is shaping up for 2027?

16:03 Thanks. Cat lead times continue to extend out as we're seeing an extreme tightness in the supply chain. Think that now we're out to close to 160. So it's meaningfully out there. The interpretation I'd offer that is interesting though. This tightness in the market just reflects a market that I believe is coiled for growth. We see this in the overall burgeoning demand for natural gas. We see this in the amount of pipeline capacity expected to come online in 2026, the amount of LNG incrementally that's going to come online in 2026. We see it in the tightness in the supply chain and candidly we're seeing it in our bookings.

16:53 So this is a market that's just posed right now for that accelerated growth for the future and canceling for years. As far as 2027, we are definitely going to be placing orders and have placed orders to ensure we're positioned well to meet customer demand, but we're not yet giving guidance on CapEx for 2027. Thank you. Your next question will come from Eli Johnson with JPMorgan. Hey, good morning everyone and congrats to Doug and your retirement and next steps ahead. Maybe to take that last point a step further, I know some of your peers have signaled reserving slots even past '27 and '28 and '29 just given the aforementioned tightness. Can you give any color just in terms of how you're thinking even multiple years ahead and what kind of discussions you're having with your customers so that they can ensure they're getting the equipment they need? Thanks.

17:57 Yes, thanks for the question. For the customers, we are working closely with our customers to advise as to where lead times are and to help them ensure that they are not cut short and without equipment produce and compress the gas that they're going to have in the coming years. When we think about our outlook for the business, we are seriously optimistic about the growth ahead. And that does mean we are absolutely going to use our incredibly strong balance sheet that positions us well to capture market going forward, to place orders and ensure that we're not caught without equipment to support our customers' needs. Thinking about years beyond 2026, we assess the market overall based on and we're willing to place orders based on a contract in hand, based upon a good lead and intel with our customers as well as strong market signals.

18:52 And so we are going to be in the position to show up and have equipment for our customers and to move the market to capture market share in the future based upon the extreme tightness we see. Got it. And then maybe just thinking about some of the strong performance we saw this quarter, it looked like pricing jumped up a bit. And just want to get a sense, I know that you need to balance kind of those price increases with your customers' needs, but can can you just give us a signal to how you see price trending throughout the year? And maybe also confirm the cadence for deployment of horsepower this year as well, how much we're expecting and then when it should come on? Thanks. On the second part of the question first, the deployment of horsepower, it is the case that in Q1 we took that was the lowest quarter for us of deliveries of new built horsepower and we expect future deliveries or deliveries in future quarters of 2026 to continue to grow and it's more back half weighted.

19:57 So that you'll see that shape in the curve for new equipment deliveries. We expect that to translate to start activity for the same reason. As far as pricing goes, we are very happy to see the growth in revenue per horsepower that we delivered year over year on a sequential basis. It shows the strength in our business. And I'm going to point out that at profitability above 70% now on a sustained for a sustained period of time, we are very happy with the overall pricing in the market, the returns we're achieving, and expect to grow our business to achieve growing returns to our investors going forward. As far as particular pricing commentary right now and other points of strategy for the company, let's just say that we're very invested in growing this profitable business for the benefit of our investors.

20:47 Understood. Thanks. Your next question will come from Jim Rollison with Raymond James. Hey, good morning, Doug, Brad and Megan. Congrats, Doug, on your pending retirement, and we'll send you off properly in Aspen this summer, I think. Brad, on the oil price side, obviously, you guys have been in this kind of perfect environment until recently where gas outlook has been fantastic and you've been growing at a pretty rapid clip and you've had somewhat muted oil prices that have kind of helped on the lube oil and fuel cost side of the equation and that's obviously changed. I'm kind of curious what you all are seeing there and how quickly can you pass those through so you can sustain these low 70% margins in that business?

21:37 We do expect to have some oil price headwinds primarily in the back half of the year as lube oil pricing for us adjusts quarterly. There's definitely a lag time between when we experience an increase in our costs and when we can pass them on to customers. And I am not going to use the word transitory. However, what we see in the market today is that we are not willing to know or to guess where oil will ultimately resolve and therefore where base oil and lube oil pricing will ultimately resolve. But what we see for this higher stock price, higher oil price environment today is it appears to be mostly driven by external events, notably hostility in The Middle East. And so we need to see where that resolves longer term. In the meantime, we did not change our guidance, notwithstanding what we see for risk on the wall pricing for the back half of the year. We intend to mitigate that through the best cost management we can offer in the market to continue to deliver this high level of profitability and returns to our investors.

22:43 Got it. Appreciate that. And then just on the asset sales side, you guys have been basically great portfolio managers for a while now where you keep high grading assets and redeploying the capital. Just curious if you have any color or view and maybe you don't yet, but just on how we should think about incremental kind of older asset sales that you're looking to monetize just as we think about how that impacts the numbers there's obviously a lag between getting the capital and redeploying it. Just wondering how do you think about that going forward? Fleet repositioning we've been engaged in for the last number of years now has been remarkably consistent.

23:29 Just when I think that we actually have de aged the fleet and we no longer have a lot of assets in that category for disposal, yet the calendar turns, another year passes and we find that there's still an opportunity for some assets that we believe will not be as competitive for the future. And so this program on our asset management that we've implemented has some real benefits, it's really important. And first and foremost, in keeping our fleet as competitive as we can keep it and in providing the best service to our customers that we can deliver. Second, when we look at the total ownership over the life of a unit, it allows us to really think about how to optimize the total cash flow coming out of a unit for its life and to sell units while they still have meaningful market value, which is why we've been able to generate nice gain on sale on a fairly consistent basis through our asset management program over that period of time. Then we take those proceeds and redeploy it into our new build program, which is a very efficient overall capital management program.

24:38 And the third benefit is that even though I know this is a gain on sale income, in some ways it accelerates some of that EBITDA into the period. So it's a really effective program when you think about those three primary benefits. So we're going to continue to engage in a very disciplined asset management approach. I do think that looking to our past levels is fairly indicative of what could happen in the future. It's very difficult to forecast this, but we're going to continue. And that said, it's going to be consistent with past levels, but I do think it's going to ramp down a bit, potentially lower going forward, only because of the amazing growth environment that we find ourselves in as an industry in compression and for natural gas production and because of the high quality and repositioning we've already accomplished on the fleet.

25:30 Appreciate the color and thank you guys. Your next question will come from Nate Middleton with Texas Capital. Good morning Brad and Doug. Brad, in your prepared remarks you called out improving compression demand outside of the Permian. Can you talk about where you see those opportunities geographically and maybe if there's any difference in the unit sizes needed for those opportunities? Yes, great question. What we saw in the quarter was that, and really beneficially, only about 35 of our bookings were in the Permian in the quarter, and so more were outside. And they're spread fairly evenly between the Northeast, the Mid Continent, the South, and that would be in East Texas, Haynesville and the Rockies. And so it's been a nice spread, but it's also been good to see units moving into other markets and other basins accomplishing some growth, especially on natural gas.

26:33 And the unit sizes are more diverse in the plays outside the Permian, especially in the electric motor drives that we're deploying, where we see a spread of horsepower more all the way from 400,800 and potentially moving up to 1,500. We do see more diversity, it's primarily within the electric motor drives that we're seeing the smaller horsepower go out into the marketplace. Got it. I appreciate that. Then as my follow-up, with the longer timelines for large horsepower units that's been very topical so far. Can you talk about if those if that delay changes your procurement strategy with packagers? Do you have to put down a deposit for the full unit so far in advance?

27:20 And maybe can you help us understand the cash flow implications of such a long lead time for just the engines? Well, without going into too much on our procurement strategy and the work we do with our packagers, I will say we're very aligned with our packagers in fulfillment and making sure we can manage the need. It does not require a change in the overall kind of structure of the cash flows where we still expect to have very effective deployment of capital so that the unit revenue is recognized within two months to three months max of when the bulk of the capital goes out the door for a unit.

28:10 Got it. Thanks for taking my questions. Thank you. Your next question will come from Doug Irwin with Citi. Hey team, thanks for the question. Brad, you made a comment in your prepared remarks about maintaining flexibility for both organic and inorganic growth. Just curious if inorganic growth comes even more attractive here just given where lead times are as well as the fact that you have a much stronger equity currency compared to the last few acquisitions you did? We are extremely well positioned both from a balance sheet perspective, given our low leverage ratio now and our equity position with higher stock price. We're definitely really well positioned to finance any growth going forward, including inorganic growth.

29:05 But I would say that it's not going to it doesn't make the targets look more attractive. We're still going to be very disciplined in how we evaluate the opportunity set going forward. We want to make sure that if we see an opportunity that we know why we can use why we can add value to that opportunity or why that opportunity adds value to us. So the discipline is going to remain an outstanding, the really strong financial position we're in. But we do see that there are a number of opportunities in the marketplace that could develop over the coming years. And we're optimistic that just like our track record of having grown through acquisition with Tops, with NGCSI, that there will be opportunities for us to deploy capital into the market through both means. Got it. Thanks for that. And then maybe just a higher level one as a follow-up here.

29:56 Sounds like you're working pretty closely with your own customers to make sure they have enough supply over the next year or so, but it's obviously a pretty dynamic market. So just curious to get your view on the balance of the broader market here going forward. I guess, is there a potential scenario where we could see compression become kind of a real near term bottleneck if we see producers look to start accelerating activity into the back half of the year? Just curious kind of how much slack you see there being in broader compression market here? I don't know that I have enough visibility into the market to be able to answer the question accurately, but I would step back and pose the following that for The United States to deliver all of the LNG we're targeting to export and all the power we expect to fuel through natural gas. I'm going to stick to that. It's in our lane. We have a lot of power capacity, power plants, power generation to build. We have a lot of lines to lay. We have a lot of pipelines to lay. We have a lot of gas plants to go in, and we have a lot of compression to go into the market. It is not all going to happen without some bottlenecks and delays along that entire supply chain. At Archrock, we're very invested to not being one of them.

31:15 Yes. And look, think I'd just add, like with our utilization as high as it is, the industry at tight utilization. As Brad pointed out, there are a lot of macro factors. We saw a large E and P make a pretty aggressive announcement earlier in the week about their ability to grow even this year. And I think we're going to do everything we can to continue to make sure we have equipment for our customers and support this growth for compression. Understood. Thanks for the time. Your final question will come from Steve Cherizoni with Sidoti. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.

32:04 Brad and Doug, when I think about your fleet, which you've obviously spent several years high grading, it's higher it's larger horsepower units, it's a younger fleet. How do you think about changes in annual maintenance and other CapEx, particularly in a quarter where it looks like a lot of your guidance for the full year other CapEx was taken in Q1? A few things you're seeing in our CapEx. Number one, our CapEx is typically dictated by what the units tell us they need from a time on location, time in operation and hours perspective. We are seeing an incremental uptick in our maintenance CapEx right now because of the time at which we added the horsepower in prior years. We just have more large horsepower due for major maintenance this year than we have in the most recent couple of years.

33:06 What you're going to see in major maintenance in particular is just going to be exactly that, the timing required for the units based upon hours of operation in the field and that's what we're experiencing. And even though we've de aged the fleet nicely, we've standardized the mix of fleet really well, and we've increased the average size of horsepower and added in electric motor drives. The other aspect that you're seeing is that we grew through acquisition, and so some of what we're seeing for the year includes the NGCSI units coming into our fleet. And finally, we did go through a period of inflation that was pretty steep. And so just the maintenance investment required for the same work has increased over time. So that's what you're seeing in our maintenance activity overall. That said, we're very dedicated to ensuring we spend the maintenance capital required by the units to deliver superior customer service over time.

34:06 When we think about your other CapEx guidance for the year, looks like you spent about half of it in Q1. Was there anything particular, any reason to think that number could end up higher? Likely just timing. The other CapEx is primarily trucks and computers. And so that would just mostly be the timing of delivery of our truck fleet to support the growth that we're seeing in the marketplace and making sure we have the right transportation for our mechanics. Got it. That's helpful. And then just I mean, almost doubled your available liquidity sequentially with asset sales. When you think about returning capital to shareholders, does that mean you can get more aggressive? Or do you have to carefully think about the multi year likely expansion of your fleet given the expected demand growth?

35:01 Fortunately, we're in the position to be able to pay attention to both these key drivers for value creation for our investors. First and foremost, given the market we're in, as you just highlighted, growth. Poised for growth and maintaining some dry powder for growth is absolutely strategically something we want to make sure we have done, but we do expect to continue to grow our cash returns to our investors over time as we grow our business. We certainly have the financial strength to do that comfortably. Thanks everyone. And there are no more questions. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Childers for final remarks. Thank you for joining us today.

35:48 We're pleased with our strong start to 2026 and remain focused on execution, profitable growth and returning capital to shareholders. We appreciate your support and look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you. Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect.