Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ:ACGL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call

0:00 Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the 2Q twenty twenty six Arch Capital Earnings Conference Call. And instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in yesterday's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.

0:50 For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10 ks for the 2025 fiscal year. Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

1:27 Management will also make reference to certain non GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form eight ks furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. I would now like to introduce your hosts for today's conference, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulos and Mr. Francois Morin. Sirs, you may begin. Good morning and welcome to Arch's second quarter earnings call.

2:12 We reported strong earnings this quarter with solid underwriting performance from each of our three segments. After tax operating income in the quarter was $893,000,000 or $2.56 of earnings per share. Slowing top line growth and strong earnings freed up capital for additional share repurchases in the quarter, bringing the total for the first half of the year to $1,950,000,000 Book value per share grew by 2.8% in the quarter and has increased by 4.5% in the first half of the year. While the underwriting environment is increasingly competitive, it is important to note that we are still in the early stages of this softening market.

3:05 Overall, fundamentals are attractive with some line experiencing increased competition, while others continue to see rate increases. Arch's diversified business model ensures that we can find opportunities to deploy capital that generate appropriate risk adjusted returns. Our position as an industry leader in specialty insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance provides us with a meaningful competitive advantage. Clients come to us not only for capacity, but also for our underwriting expertise, claim capabilities and valuable perspectives that help them better manage risk. Our commitment to cycle management is embedded in our culture and guides our underwriting approach.

3:56 This is reinforced by compensation structure that incentivizes quality underwriting by aligning performance with long term profitability and shareholder returns. Let us now turn to our segment performance, starting with insurance, where results were negatively affected by catastrophe losses related to the Iran conflict. Arch is a leading rider of political violence, terrorism and marine war in the London market. So while losses affected this quarter's results, we are seeing ongoing opportunities to support clients with assets in the region. Underwriting income of $27,000,000 does not reflect the good underlying performance of the segment, which delivered a current accident year combined ratio ex cat of 91.6%.

4:51 As reported by others and consistent with our comments last quarter, competition is increasing, particularly in property and short tail lines. That said, the middle market commercial business and casualty oriented lines continue to experience rate increases. Additionally, pricing in directors and officers is rebounding slowly, while rate declines in cyber insurance have moderated. Our gross and net premium return were negatively impacted by the non renewal of certain program business as discussed in prior calls. And we are also impacted by reduced writing of our excess and surplus property business.

5:36 We continue to see premium growth in casualty oriented lines in North America, including excess and surplus casualty, construction and national accounts. And we also saw positive trends in certain specialty London market lines, including war and terrorism. Looking ahead, our diversified platform provides us with the flexibility to grow in those areas where pricing supports our return objectives. Reinsurance underwriting results were excellent, aided by relatively light catastrophe losses, resulting in $410,000,000 of underwriting income in the quarter. The current quarter accident year ex cat combined ratio was 79.9%, a two seventy basis point increase from last year due to changes in mix and lower pricing in property lines.

6:30 Net premiums written were down 10% from the same quarter last year, as some of our clients opted to retain more risk and increasing competition lowered rates, particularly in property. We increased our session to traditional reinsurance and third party capital, which impacted our net to growth ratio. Our ability to leverage these capabilities enables us to provide solution to our brokers and sealant, while maintaining flexibility to manage our net risk portfolio. Similar to insurance, casualty reinsurance is an area where we see attractive business. Opportunities remain though competition is elevated due to abundant reinsurance capacity.

7:17 Within our reinsurance business, our focus is on maintaining our position as a leading reinsurance partner through disciplined underwriting and by consistently delivering business expertise across market cycles. The mortgage segment continued to provide strong, stable result, delivering $220,000,000 of underwriting income in the quarter. Our mortgage portfolio performed well, driven by a resilient economy and high quality risk in force. Our U. S. MI portfolio delinquency rate remained flat at 2.1%. Favorable reserve development continued, although slower than in prior quarters. While affordability and housing supply constraints limit new mortgage origination, mortgage insurance remains a consistent contributor to earnings as the strengths of the in force portfolio and favorable credit characteristic continue to support steady profitability.

8:18 Investment contributed $417,000,000 or $1.20 of net investment income per share in the quarter. This is supported by our conservatively managed portfolio, which maintains an average credit quality of AA-. We continue to benefit from an asset base that has grown to $49,500,000,000 supported by strong cash flows. Investments accounted for using the equity method, which are excluded from operating earnings performed well, adding an additional $196,000,000 or $0.56 per share to net income, reflecting strong returns across the portfolio. Over the last five years, we have enjoyed favorable market conditions in property and short term lines.

9:10 And consequently, we now face early stages of a competitive market driven by an influx of capacity. This part of the cycle is to be expected. Importantly, a more competitive environment doesn't mean a lack of opportunity. It simply requires greater discipline in where and how capital is deployed. Our playbook is built upon our enduring strengths. A diversified platform, best in class cycle management, a strong brand that enhances our relationship with clients and distribution partners, as well as disciplined capital management.

9:51 In sum, we remain well positioned to consistently deliver superior results for our shareholders. As Arch approaches its twenty fifth anniversary, one thing is clear. While the company has evolved, the principle and playbook we rely upon create long term shareholder value. With that, I will turn the call over to Francois. Francois?

10:18 Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all. Before I provide some additional color on our results, I wanted to walk you through our capital allocation and management actions this quarter. Capital management is an essential tool to help us to manage our business through the insurance cycle. The latest hard market provided Arch the opportunity to generate significant excess capital that as the market transitions cannot be fully deployed into our business. Our preferred option has first been to return excess capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and secondly through special dividends.

10:59 After considering the opportunities available to us to deploy capital in the business, both existing and new, we determined that share buybacks remain an accretive use of excess capital in enhancing shareholder returns at current prices. As a result, we repurchased 12,400,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $1,200,000,000 in the quarter.

11:25 Through the first half of the year, we have repurchased approximately 94% of our net income in our own shares. As you know, we also accessed the debt market in May, $2,000,000,000 in a combination of ten year and thirty year senior notes.

11:44 The proceeds from this issuance will be used to one, redeem the $500,000,000 of ten year senior notes maturing later this year two, purchase $418,000,000 of our 2,043 and 2,046 senior notes through a recently completed tender offer with the remainder for general corporate purposes.

12:08 The tender offer was designed to replace debt that no longer meets updated regulatory capital requirements with fully compliant capital instruments. As a result of the debt raise, we expect our interest expense to be approximately $60,000,000 to $63,000,000 for each of the next two quarters.

12:29 As of the end of the second quarter, our plus preferred to capital leverage ratio stands at a conservative 18.1%. Turning back to our operating performance for the quarter. Our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results with an overall ex cat accident year combined ratio of 82.5%, up 160 basis points from the same quarter last year. Our underwriting income included $165,000,000 of favorable prior year development on a pretax basis in the quarter or 4.1 points on the overall combined ratio. We recognize favorable development in all three of our segments and in many of our lines of business, but mainly in short tail lines in our P and C segments and in mortgage due to strong cure activity.

13:25 Current year catastrophe losses were $2.00 $1,000,000 net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums and were a combination of losses from the Iran conflict and severe convective storms in The U. S. The Insurance segment's net premiums written declined 5.1% year over year due in part to the non renewal of certain program business.

13:49 The ex cat accident year loss ratio net of reinstatement premiums improved by 90 basis points to 56.4 compared to the same quarter one year ago, due primarily to strong performance in our international operations. The acquisition expense ratio for the current accident year increased by 30 basis points as the benefit we observed from the write off of deferred acquisition costs for the MCE acquired business rolled off. Our operating expense ratio was higher this quarter due to the transition of our middle market business to Arch Systems. As mentioned last quarter, we would expect our operating expense ratio to revert back to historical levels during the second half of the year.

14:35 Turning to the Reinsurance segment. Net premiums written were down 10.4% from the same quarter one year ago, reflecting reduced writings from lower rates and a higher level of retrocession purchases, primarily in the specialty and property catastrophe lines.

14:52 Overall, our ex catastrophe accident year combined ratio of 79.9 is up from last year due to the shift in line of business mix and a more competitive rate environment for certain sub segments. Our mortgage segment produced another very strong quarter with underwriting income of $220,000,000 Net premiums earned were flat from last quarter with a reduction in our U. S. MI business mostly offset by higher levels of earned premium in Australia.

15:24 On the investment front, we earned a combined $613,000,000 of net investment income and income from funds accounted for using the equity method or 1.76 per share pre tax, up from the $1.57 per share we earned last quarter. We note that the returns of equity method funds contributed three forty basis points to our annualized net income return on average common equity in the quarter. Cash flow from operations remained very strong at $1,300,000,000 for the quarter.

16:00 Income from operating affiliates was $46,000,000 for the quarter, slightly higher than the $40,000,000 from the same quarter one year ago. Our effective tax rate on pretax operating income was 15.1, reflecting the mix of income by tax jurisdiction. As of July 1, our peak zone natural cap probable maximum loss for a single event at a one and two fifty year return level on a net basis is down slightly to $1,800,000,000 and now stands at 8% of tangible shareholders' equity. With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

16:42 Thank Again, press star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions.

17:10 Our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Elyse, your line is open. Please go ahead. Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the Insurance segment. I was hoping to both just get a sense of the sustainability of the underlying loss ratio you saw in the quarter. Francois, I think you pointed out strong international results for the second quarter in a row. So just trying to get a

17:41 sense of the sustainability there. And then was there any change in your loss pick assumptions within your insurance book in the quarter?

17:51 Yes. Two things or a few points on that Elyse. First international, as you know, it's more of a short tail book. So it's been running very well and there's always potential volatility that we have to think about. So I mean hard for us to know how that's going to play out, but the business is doing extremely well. So we're happy with that. On the North American side, I mean what's also helped a little bit is

18:19 the non renewal of some of the programs that started out earlier this year. So as those kind of earn in, right the premium earns in or the lack of premium, I think that will that has brought down the loss ratio a little bit. So I mean where does it go from here? I think I mean at a high level where we think we're comfortable with the levels where we're at. And

18:42 I think there's a good chance or there's a possibility that we stay at levels that are around And this

18:53 no movement in loss trends? No movement in specific loss picks. I mean it's really I mean absent just the normal adjustment of rate over trend that we go through each of our lines of business, but then we haven't like systematically decided to move down the loss ratio pick from one line in particular or another. So nothing new there. And ladies, remember in insurance, you can actually

19:22 adjust the mix of the book. So we every most of our books today are split in what we call quartile or quintile, where some of the book is running at the lower expense lower loss ratio and the other side is running at a higher loss ratio. So the work of the underwriter is really to get pricing or manage a higher loss ratio out. So we have more propensity to keep the loss ratio where it is.

19:53 Thanks. And then my follow-up was just on capital. Obviously, buyback, right, picked up in the quarter. I think you guys just mentioned, right, slower growth, obviously, strong earnings and capital position. How are you guys thinking about the level of buybacks from here, recognizing, obviously, we're in the midst of wind season. Would you expect a slowdown this quarter and then pick back up or just how are you thinking about the level of capital return going forward?

20:26 Yes. Don't certainly don't have targets or plans to buy back a certain number or dollars of shares. We certainly thought that in the second quarter, the price of the stock was very attractive to us. So that's why we were able to certainly buyback more than we had done in the past. Does that stay at this level? I don't know. And the current prices we like the stock still. We think it's very attractive.

20:55 And we have capacity to buy back more. So we'll see that plays out. Wind season is always something that is a little bit of back of our minds that we have to think about. But going forward, I think we're in a position where again, the growth is going to be harder to come, we think. And share buybacks will remain part of the arsenal that we have to manage our returns.

21:23 Thank you. You're welcome. Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

21:38 Hi, good morning. Retention in the insurance business has ticked on over the past couple of years. Is your approach here to keep retention the same or could you potentially increase that and internalize more of the underwriting income? I'm just not sure if seeding is economically more attractive like it is in reinsurance today.

21:57 So can you repeat the question? Are you asking about retention of In the insurance segment, your retention has been going down, right? So you've been essentially feeding less, just net over growth, And I think in the soft market, yes. Yes.

22:14 So and again, it's a function of really the market we are in. So I think in reinsurance, we've ceded a little more because I think we if I remember, we

22:31 placed a little bit more on the shorter lines because as the rate was going down and we also increased our capacity. As we increase our limits, we buy more reinsurance. So there's many factors that influence

22:50 the net to gross. But the market is certainly a factor we look at as well. We I said it in my we're here to solve the problem for our insured and for our brokers. So the

23:05 reinsurance is a good tool to stay in front of the clients, ultimately figure out what we want to keep after it. And in Insurance, the Insurance segment, what's your stance on net to growth there?

23:27 The question I asked you earlier was more it works on both the same way, but the answer more on the insurance side. I'm sorry. The line is really your line is really bad. So on the insurance, I probably gave you the answer. On the reinsurance, I think we are much more active I would say

23:48 on the buying, especially because the property cat business specifically we think is quite stressed. So we have to manage the net portfolio. And the tool we've used is relying on capacity out there that have a lower cost of capital to help again solve the problem for the clients or distribution partners.

24:19 Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Good morning. Nicolas, I was intrigued by your early comments, prepared remarks where you talked about an influx of capacity and that we're in the early stages of a soft market.

24:45 So I'm hoping you can elaborate a little bit separately on property and casualty. Do you think property rates could come down materially more and to what potential degree? And you mentioned that casualty was decelerating. Do you think we could start to see that turn negative?

25:10 Yes. First, I think we I truly believe that the market that we are trading in is a favorable market. So there are business that our teams can on the insurance side. And to a large extent on the reinsurance side, there's new business that we can write. So we were made to trade in this type of environment. So specific to

25:37 property, yes, it's a big headwind, okay?

25:41 Rates have been coming down. And there I think we tried quite carefully. And you saw both on the insurance and reinsurance on net premium going down. We are much more optimistic on the casualty side. I think there's more competition there, but the market is remaining disciplined, especially on the insurance side. We haven't seen any we've seen management of limit, which is a critical aspect of what we track. Our competition stays very disciplined. Yes. And I'd say two, I mean property I mean, the cat activity will have an impact. I mean, that's it's still early in the season. So far, it's been quiet, but things could change depending on as we look into 2027.

26:36 Got it. So in terms of casualty, and maybe this is just like kind of a two part. When you say you're disciplined, you keeping up with loss costs on your rate? And then the prior year development

26:57 was 1.4% favorable in insurance, 5.3 favorable in reinsurance. And I know in the prepared remarks, you said it was mainly short tail stuff. But could you give a little color on the amount and geography by accident year in casualty? Or maybe it was just insignificant. But I'd be curious around how casualty played out in prior year development. Casualty at a high level is kind of neutral. I mean, so and there's some by year, by sub line, there's some up, some down. In total, it's about neutral. So yes, the short answer is like most of the favorable is in the short tail lines in the last two to three accidentunderwriting years.

27:52 Your next question comes from the line of Kevey Montessori with Deutsche Bank. Just

28:02 want to follow-up on the $1,200,000,000 of share repurchases you did this quarter. I think it's the first time in a while you went over 100% of operating income. I know part of that's dictated by the stock price, but there's still a pretty meaningful gap between where you're trading and of like the intrinsic value based on three year forward book value. So at current levels, like how I'm trying to get a sense of how long you can sustain

28:33 share repurchases above 100% of the operating earnings you generate. So you did mention you've built up a decent amount of excess capital during the hard market, just put a bit more debt you can issue if you wanted to.

28:48 Just wondering kind of like can you give us a sense of like could you sustain above 100% payout throughout the soft cycle? Not knowing how long soft cycle will last, but like is it like a multiyear tryout Yes. That you

29:06 You're asking me if we have the crystal ball, which we don't. But let's just say that we've got again, we are very confident in our ability to generate strong earnings through all phases of the cycle. We got three kind of pillars to our operations, three legs of the stool, they're all performing well. So we believe strongly that we have an ability to generate earnings for the maybe not forever, right, but for foreseeable future at a minimum. So you're asking me are we able to return if we're not growing, could we return all those earnings in back and back to the shareholders? The answer is yes, could. Could we do something else? Again, that's like I don't want to speculate what we're going to do in a year or two years because is there M and A, is there other things that we where we need the capital before what we deployed differently. But again, the quarter second quarter was again hopefully a good demonstration that we are active and like the stock and think it's an attractive way to return to shareholders and we'll keep doing the same as long as unless things change materially.

30:23 And I guess linked to this, your TML went down a bit this quarter, I guess not as much as your premium on a net basis. Can you maybe give us some color what kind of business you are sending to the retro market? And should we expect your PML to kind of go down over time as the cycle softens? Guess because I guess that could be an additional source of capital that will be released that you could use for share repurchases or whatever else you want to do with it? So the PMS that you look at I think is Florida Tri County. So it's one of the 50 zones that we monitor. So I mean Florida business is our peak zone.

31:09 So it's a peak zone for most of the reinsurers in the field. So that historically has had the highest margin. So that's why I think the rate reduction are pretty much across the board on the property cat. So we would expect that the PMA could reduce, but think of Florida as the highest margin business in our property cat books. But the percentage of shareholders' equity, we were at 8%. We've been in the soft market, the last soft market, we were at 4%. So we're a different animal. We're much more relevant.

31:57 We're much more bigger partner to many of our clients and brokers. So yes, could our PML come down? Absolutely. Does it go down to the same level back that we've said? We don't know. Yes. Your next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks. First question was just on casualty reinsurance. I think you all had taken a maybe somewhat differentiated view on casualty re versus peers in 2025 by leaning in with some of these selective cedents. As we think about the deceleration in casualty reinsurance growth year to date, Is that reflective of those outperforming cedents choosing to retain more risk? Or has Arch changed its view on casualty re returns?

33:00 No. I don't think we've changed our view. I think we as I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we stay I think it's an attractive line of business. We like the fundamental of the underlying business in the Specialty Casualty area. The issue, it's not new, is too much capacity, reinsurance capacity chasing too little business. And the way we see it is hit or miss on the terms and conditions. So there are certain terms and conditions that works. And for others, we think that sometimes it's mostly quota share contract, the senior commission is too high. So I think we're still looking if for the right opportunity to add reinsurance casualty to our books in the right lines of business and with the right sitting companies.

33:56 Okay. Thank you. And I just want to follow-up on The Middle East, some losses this quarter from a cat perspective, but it also seems like there's some incremental opportunities to write new business. Could you just give us some sense of what the strategy is to write new business? And how you go about managing that and determining what's a good risk? Yes. So obviously, following the losses in the iron regions, as we're all aware about, prices have adjusted. And for us, we prices at some point were multiple of what they were before the conflict.

34:47 And so we decided to deploy bit of capacity and stay with our insured. Some of our insured, there is a we made you a one liner business. Now they suddenly figure out that war, the which was excluded from their property policies, they'd like to buy some coverage. And so selectively, we've deployed more capacity in the region, making sure that we avoid concentration. So we have a careful approach to continuing to service distribution partner and our clients in the region. Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. Your line is open.

35:36 Please go ahead. Hey, thanks. Good morning. I'm wondering if you guys could just quantify the Iran losses this quarter that impacted the insurance segment And then maybe just elaborate on how you're thinking about them and the cat load within insurance going forward. I'm interested also in any sort of IBNR versus actual loss detail you could share. Well, I mean, the majority of the insurance cat losses come from Iran. Cat load going forward, I mean, quoted the 6% to 8% kind of for the on an annual basis for the group. That hasn't changed. I think the losses that we the Iran conflict is more is actual refineries, it's actual claims. So case reserves have been set up. It's not a hypothetical IBNR.

36:36 We'll put it up in case something happens. And those are large refineries, etcetera, that people are aware of well aware of. They've been kind of hit and they there's damage associated with them. There's always questions around business interruption. So we don't know the magnitude of the outcome, but the claims are real and tangible. So that's how we think about it. I mean, it's again, we Nicholas mentioned it. We are out of London and Lloyd's. We are leaders in the political violence, terrorism kind of market. And that's the losses when they happen, we expect them and we think the pricing supports it. And that's why we've been in that space in a more meaningful way the last few years.

37:24 And we're still in it. Got it. Thanks. No, that makes sense. And then maybe just on the reinsurance segment, the accident year loss ratio ex cat deteriorated three seventy basis points year on year. Sounds like that's well within expectations that you guys have had just given the mix shift away from property and then also just the pricing pressure there on that line. I mean, that the same sort of deterioration we should expect as we head throughout the rest of this year? Or yes, sort of wondering how you guys are thinking about that.

38:11 Yes. As we said before, David, I think we I mean, our view is we look at trailing twelve months as first of all like to our kind of the lens we like to put at our results specifically on reinsurance because there's going to be more a little bit more volatility in the ex cat loss ratio no matter what. So that's the first thing we'd say. Two, you're right. I think the mix has changed, a little bit less short tail, which is reflected in that increase in the loss ratio. Three, yes, the market a little bit more kind of competition, the rates are down a little bit more that hasn't fully earned in, so that may earn in kind of over time. So you put it all together like the last kind of quarter, if you focus on the quarter, we'd say it's probably a little bit higher than we would think the run rate is or kind of reflecting all these moving parts. But we're not surprised by it or think it's again, to your point, that's very kind of very much within our expectations.

39:17 But we'll see how things play out going forward. Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benji with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Can you quantify the Prop CAT rate decreases you saw at midyear renewals and share your view of rate adequacy? Looking at one broker survey, looks like pricing is back to 2021 levels, but a competitor had said it looked more like 2023. So where in the spectrum is your view? Yes. So I think I concur with what other people have said on other calls. I think the rate reductions were in the mid teens.

40:03 That's what we saw. And I think in terms of rate index, I think we are not back to the pre hurricane in. I think we are 2022. I think we think the market trades above that. So are we in 2023? Maybe. But I think we depends it really depends on the region. So I think that's what you we as I said earlier, we have 50 zones. So some zones are green still, above provide adequate returns. And some zones are now red and some zones are in orange. So I think that's why we actively manage our portfolio. But in terms of index, think our view is that we're still above the in prior Hurricane Iain rate index.

41:00 Great. Can you touch on your appetite to reinsure MGAs? I realize you're the lead reinsurer in at least one of the fronting companies. What structural safeguards do you have in place? So our involvement on the reinsurance regarding MGAs has been mostly on the property side. So short tail, I think we've been a significant player supported by the pricing on the primary side. It was one way insurance team were able to access business that otherwise they could not access. So we again, the fact that it's short term, maybe it limits some of the risk we see with working with MGA, which is down the road, who's going to pay the claims and who's going to be there if the MGA is no longer there. So I think as far as a reinsurer, you don't have as much of an issue. The issue is more I think with the insurer, the insurance company sorry the insured, I'm sorry.

42:17 The insured or the broker, if you do it with an MGA, especially as it relates to long tail lines, five years, six years from now, you don't have visibility if the MGA no longer exists, who is going to pay your claims. And will the reinsurance capacity still be there? So I think it's more of an issue on the insured broker E and O than it is for reinsurer in my mind. Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Mizuho. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. Two questions on the Reinsurance segment and opportunities there. First, it sounds like you are still seeing an attractive environment for casualty there.

43:09 That does sound a little bit different than what we've heard from other executives this earnings this season. So I understand from your earlier comments that it is a lot about partnering with the right underlying risk, but maybe you can offer some additional FRANCOIS color as to what really makes this a more attractive opportunity for you when you look at this market. I mean, what makes the opportunity interesting to us is the underlying insurance casualty, which we think in certain specialty areas is profitable. So I think we are trying to through reinsurance access those companies that we think are good underwriter and do business in those specialty casualty areas.

44:05 Okay. And then on the property side, maybe following up on Tracy's question. I think we heard from another broker yesterday talking about how Southern Florida is back to twenty seventeen property cat levels. I think one of your reinsurance competitors talked about lightening up the load bit in Florida. So curious to what you're seeing in Florida. I realize there are a lot of zones there, but maybe you can give us a little more color and detail on Southern Florida versus Northern Florida, West versus East. I mean, what I can tell you what we saw at sixone is the reductions of the rates were across the board. Historically, there were higher reduction at the top end of the program and lower reduction in the frequency layer.

45:05 This time around, I think the appetite has been more across the board. And Tri County area is a big zone. So I would say usually, it attracts the higher pricing. I think if you are in the Galveston area or Orlando area, the pricing would be less because it's probably not the peak zone of everyone. So and the market is efficient. The pricing reflect more the abundance of capacity and the new entrant capacity that is chasing the business. But the differentiation in the pricing between zone, I think is efficient. People are using models. So I think we don't see a huge red flag there.

46:01 Your next question comes from the line of Roland Mayer with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Do you expect continued benefits from higher investment yields to add pressures to casualty competition over time? And I guess, do you guys embed some new investment yields in your rate adequate decision on long tail lines? We don't. We're very clear on that. We only we ask our casualty underwriter to write for an underwriting profit, And we credit them with a risk free rate. So we but we require an underwriting profit. So I think we that's very clear for us.

46:54 Thank you. And then as my follow-up, you mentioned buyback is part of the art personnel. Are we at all close to the point where special dividends make more sense than buybacks? In 2024, I think that was when you were above 1.8 times book, but also would assume for an ROE expectation to a higher when you made that decision? Yes. I mean, back in 2024, we were at two times book. So it was very much a to us was very clear that buybacks did not make sense and dividend, the special was the answer. Now, we're trading in the kind of 1.5, 1.6 range, 1.45 whatever. So I think it's more still makes sense to do buybacks. But so our preference obviously is it's one or the other.

47:43 And right now we're in the buybacks range and we'll see how again things play out, but that's kind of how we would think about it. Like dividends as long as we again, I said it earlier, I think we have we're positive and our visibility in terms forward looking earnings is very positive. So to us that supports kind of value creation and kind of strong returns for the next three years and that's a big part of how we look at the economics of the share buybacks. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Line is open. Please go ahead. Thanks. Nicholas, first question, I just want to focus a little bit on Midcorp. If we think about that business ex the program business that I know you're intentionally running off, how is the growth been? How has retention been? Is it a bit more challenging maybe to keep the business you thought given the competitive market? And then how do we think about it going forward?

48:44 I think we've been positively surprised. Think that our goal was really to the first goal was to move the business over to Arch. So we did this a year ago. And the second goal was to move the police emission systems from Allianz to us. So that created some disruptions for underwriters. I mean, it made their life much more difficult. But I think we the value of the brand and the relationship worked out for us. I think we are in a good place. I think the looking ahead, I think we have now the underwriting team and policy and mission system on Arch using Arch Paper, it's ours. And so we're actively moving to the phase where we can provide them with better tool, better analytics, triage, improve the claims. So I think there is a lot of things we want to do that will lead to more growth in the future.

49:51 And just do you see better, call it, market dynamics in that segment where midcorp is than some of the other areas? Yes. The mid I think it's muted compared to the large property and E and S. I think we still see overall on the package rate increase that are positive in the mid single digits. And I think the property itself is flattish, used to be 5% up. But we don't see the double digit decrease that we see elsewhere on the excess and surplus property or large account property. Your next question comes from the line of Chris Hartwell with Autonomous Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

50:42 Good morning, gentlemen. Quick question, first of all, just on the midyear renewal conversations you're having with your seating clients over the last few months. I guess what I'm trying to understand and some extent also looking forward into January, I mean, obviously, there's a lot of focus on price. I'm trying to sort of understand what the clients are really sort of pushing for in terms of rate versus risk transfer from their reinsurance protection. So I wonder if you could comment on that, please. Yes. I think so the primary message that we got from our brokers and cedent is price. Right now, I think we have a little bit of slippage in terms and conditions or clients because they save a significant of money looking to see if they could add the margin by an underlying layer. So we're starting to see this, but it's really at the margin right now. So it's mostly price.

51:55 Okay. Thank you. And I guess, if I may, can I ask on just on the mortgage business? I mean, so far hasn't had any attention today, so I'll give it a go. There's a decent bit of growth sort of quarter on quarter in terms of new insurance written. I was wondering if you can help just provide some color on what's driving that. And I guess a part B to the question also is profitability has obviously been very, very strong for the last few years, but growth has not really been apparent. And I guess as we look forward and as that back book matures, what how should I see the trade off between, I guess, versus growth opportunity? How should that develop as we look forward?

52:45 So on the mortgage side, I think this quarter, I think we signed up a new client in Australia. And so that benefited that new premium influx helped our growth. And the second factor was, I think we reduced some amount of quota share reinsurance that we bought. So that really helped the net as well. Think those are the two elements I believe. And in terms of the profitability effect, I think it's steady as you go. My view is that the this is an interesting market where we talked about rate decrease of 15% in property cat. In mortgage, it's 1% and the markets react. So I think it's people react very quickly to maintain their market share. And I think the six actors have been maintaining the pricing where it is. So I think it's the valuation there are much smaller.

53:59 Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Great. Thanks so I want to talk about casualty loss trends, but from a different perspective. I know obviously well into social inflation as an external issue, but I'm wondering whether you can talk about how Arch and maybe the company that you're reinsuring on casualty side, are they getting any better at pushing back to the extent that what I would call net loss trends aren't as bad? What do you mean net loss trend? So sort of call it the trial attorneys are pushing for and then offset by more successful defense on the part of the insurance industry?

54:53 Yes. I think I'd love to see more we'd love to see more of that. Think there are a bit more pushback, but in the numbers we don't see yet or we don't see the impact of tort reform or different behavior by the defense attorneys and so on. So I think it's not reflected in our last trend because we just don't see it in the numbers yet. Okay. No, understood. And then I apologize if this has been covered before, but I remember a couple of years ago, there was a little bit more caution on midyear renewals because there were very negative forecasts for hurricane activity. And I'm wondering this year these forecasts are benign.

55:54 When there are below average forecasts, does that increase your appetite for property cat, obviously given the rates that are available? It's a factor. I think we have like most companies, we have a meteorologist on staff that give us the outlook. But we look at the correlation in the past. There are some positive correlation, it's one of the factor we take into account, but that's not the main factor. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks. Good morning.

56:40 On the mortgage segment where the growth popped and you called out non renewing some of the Bellameade and less reinsurance. Can you quantify how we should what that impact was and if we should be run rating that for the next three quarters as well? Yes. I mean, think the current quarter is a good starting point, right? Of these agreements were effectively on the Bellamy side. I mean, they're canceled. So the benefit we got, it's like a monthly pay or monthly kind of premium. So benefit we're getting both on the Bellamy and the quota shares, again, it will continue on. So I don't I would not I mean, I would expect like at this point kind of relatively flat kind of premium on the USMI side. Australia, to Nicholas' point, it's a new it's a relatively large new client, so which just started in Q1. So as we move throughout the rest of the year, we should see more and more of that business coming in. The when you're doing kind of year over year kind of growth, I think I would expect to see a bit more growth out our international book.

58:02 Got it. That's helpful. And just switching gears to the war in The Middle East. I'm not sure if you did quantify the exact cat loss to David's question. But just if you don't want to, that's fine. But to the extent the war endures or ebbs and flows, should we be any color on what loss industry estimate you're using or is this very kind of video to you all because it's specific to certain areas that were hit or any color you could add to how we should think about it to the extent the war endures? Thanks. Yes, I think there could be more. I mean we obviously, what we saw in Q2 was a direct reflection of certain risks that we ensure that were hit.

58:58 If that kind if we have the same in Q3 or Q4 as the war persists, yes, we could have more of that. But to your it's a right, it's more case by case, it's more property by property specific and not like an ongoing thing like COVID might have been where it was kind of more an aggregate view of the exposure. So this is more kind of case by case specific. And we'll react to it if the if we hear like the news that again there's some FRANCOIS And I think our estimate for the industry loss since the last earnings call has not changed because I think the event that happened just before the earnings calls, I think we are still I think the industry in general is still around $3,000,000,000 for the Middle East war losses.

59:54 Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks for letting me get one more question. So look, was just curious, you talked a lot about share buyback capital. But the one thing that I'm curious about is M and A and kind of how you're thinking about M and A in this environment right now. I mean, typically, we've seen as the market rolls into a soft market, M and A actually picks up. Maybe give us your perspective. And are you seeing any of that in the marketplace? Yes. So we don't think of M and A as an alternative to organic growth or buying back shares or returning capital to shareholders.

1:00:39 We think M and A as more of a strategic way of building versus buy. If we want to be in a line of business and we don't have the scale, M and A could be a path to get us there faster. And think of the Allianz transaction is we wanted to be in the middle market, property led. We tried to get there and ultimately this opportunity came and we paid a decent amount of money to have a franchise to be able to operate in that business. So we're looking at M and A to for what it add to what we have more so than to gain market share. Honest And then view on M and A in this market is it's expensive, the price is expensive and maybe the price comes down. But as the market gets more competitive, maybe the balance sheet gets weaker. So I think you have to think the timing of M and A is tricky and a successful M and A, it's difficult.

1:01:49 Historically, a lot of the M and A has created the issues for companies. So we are very careful in the way we approach it. Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulos for closing remarks. Yes. Thank you for the time today and another good quarter for Arch. And we're looking forward to talking to you next quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.