Repsol Sa · BME:REP
Repsol Sa — Investor Presentation (March 2022)
50 slides from Repsol Sa's investor presentation, March 2022
Slide 1: Stepping up the Transition
Investor Stepping up the Transition Update Driving growth and value March 2022 1
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED © REPSOL, S.A. 2022 This document contains statements that Repsol believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol and its management, including statements with respect to tr
Slide 3: Strategic Plan 2021-2025: Delivering a compelling investment case into the Transition
Strategic Plan 2021-2025: Delivering a compelling investment case into the Transition ‒ A legacy double-geared engine providing cash-flow and solid foundations for the Transition ‒ Profitable business platforms with leading advantaged positions: Iberia & Downstream ‒ New operating model, catalyzing
Slide 4: Index
Index 01. Path to 2030 02. Strategy 2021-2025 03. Business strategies 04. Stepping up energy transition 05. Delivery 2021
Slide 5: Path to 2030
Path to 2030 01.
Slide 6: Ambitious transformation journey to thrive in Energy Transition
Ambitious transformation journey to thrive in Energy Transition De-carbonize New operating the portfolio Profitable Four verticals model FCF growth New partnerships Path to 2030 Advantaged Value transformation crystallization Towards Net Zero emissions Leading investor proposition 6
Slide 7: Repsol 2030: A more sustainable, balanced and profitable company
Repsol 2030: A more sustainable, balanced and profitable company Transforming the company's portfolio Strong cash-flow growth CE 2019 CE 2025 CE 2030 FCF (B€) 8% 7% 10% 5 % Low Carbon Retail 2% 12% Customer centric business 25% x 2.6 Renewables 34% 37% Industrial transformation (circularity, H2 & e-
Slide 8: Strategy 2021-25
Strategy 2021-25: 02.
Slide 9: Delivering financial targets while transforming the company
Delivering financial targets while transforming the company Ambition 21-25 2021 - 2022 2023 - 2025 Ensuring strong Accelerating transformation and delivering performance and financial strength growth In an uncertain economic and commodities environment ‒ Efficiency & capital discipline ‒ Portfolio o
Slide 10: Strong growth in per share metrics driving valuation upsides
Strong growth in per share metrics driving valuation upsides +20%CAGR +7%CAGR +10%CAGR FCF per share CFFO per share Adjusted Net Income per share 3.2 5.7 2.2 0.6 €/sh €/sh +7% €/sh CAGR 4.6 +10% 2.1 CAGR 1.5 +20% CAGR 5.0 1.8 2.6 2.1 3.3 1.0 0.8 Adjusted1 2019 2025 Adjusted1 2019 2025 Adjusted1 2019
Slide 11: Self-financed plan
Self-financed plan Cash generation Cumulative sources and uses of cash, 2021-2025 (B€) 2021-2025 B-even post-dividends ($/bbl) Shares buyback Divestments1 29.4 29.4 & Optionalities 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.6 5.0 4.7 4.4 Dividends Financials2 $50/bbl 9.3 Additional Low Carbon FCF BE capex 2021-2025 3 (inc.
Slide 12: Discipline, flexibility and transformation: Capex 21-25
Discipline, flexibility and transformation Capex 21-25 Updated ambitions Building up transformation within 2021-2025 Profitable decarbonization Capex (B€/y) Updated ambition 2 4.0 IRR-WACC1 (%) 3.6 Capex to Low >10% 0.2 0.4 0.3 €6.5 B Carbon3 projects in 2021-2025 0.9 0.8 0.9 35% of total capex 2.5
Slide 13: Legacy and new businesses driving portfolio performance along the Transition
Legacy and new businesses driving portfolio performance along the Transition Contribution to portfolio financial profile 21-25 Capital Employed 2025 21-25 Capital Investment 1. Industrial includes Refining Spain and Peru R&M, Chemicals, Trading & Wholesale Gas businesses Note: Corporate values not c
Slide 14: Leading distribution and clear capital allocation framework
Leading distribution and clear capital allocation framework Capital allocation 21-25 Resilient shareholder distribution Capital allocation priorities Capital 75 M shares reduction Dividend €0.63 +5% over original SP commitment If Price deck 4 Extra shareholder distribution 20221 20221 50 M shares >1
Slide 15: Specific gearing target range, preserving a strong financial structure
Specific gearing target range, preserving a strong financial structure 2021-2025 gearing1 25% average Strong Liquidity Position Proforma 2020 (Billion €) €8.2 B Proforma 2020 2021-22 2023-25 Same Debt with strong EBITDA growth Committed Credit lines Cash & Eq. Maturities ‒ Current liquidity covering
Slide 16: Business strategies
Business strategies 03.
Slide 17: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 17
Slide 18: Repsol E&P priorities 2021-25
Repsol E&P priorities 2021-25 1 FCF as a priority (Leading FCF B-even) 2 Resilient Value delivery 3 Focused portfolio 4 Tier 1 CO2 emissions − FCF breakeven <$40/bbl − Top leading project − Value over volume − Emissions intensity − Low capital intensity and profitability • Flexible production level
Slide 19: Focus on capital efficiency and cash generation
Focus on capital efficiency and cash generation Upstream FCF (B€) @50/2.5 FCF BE, Brent ($/bbl) OPEX reduction (B€) Emissions reduction (Mt CO2) -20% -15% x 1.5 -75% 4.50.9 < 50 2.1 10.3 0.6 1.8 < 40 -0.1 2.5 Av. 2016-18 Av. 2019-20 Av. 2021-25 2016-2020 2021-2025 Av. 2016-20 Av. 2021-25 2020 2021-2
Slide 20: Focus portfolio and capex allocation: Playing to our core areas
Focus portfolio and capex allocation: Playing to our core areas Upstream Portfolio span reduction → from >25 to <14 countries ambition Highly selective new exploration strategy Successful track record discovering additional resources Alaska Norway in productive basins recently Canada UK ‒ Alaska Nor
Slide 21: Focus portfolio and capex allocation: projects self-funded 21-25
Focus portfolio and capex allocation: projects self-funded 21-25 Upstream Resilient and Flexible capital program Alaska Pikka (USA) <40 YME (Nor) <30 Self-funded projects ‒ FO: 2025 ‒ FO: 2021 ‒ Capex 21-25: 1,0 B$ ‒ Capex 21-25: 0,2 B$ ‒ Oil (Brent) ‒ Oil (Brent) <40 Shenzi (USA) ‒ SSPump, Sh. Nort
Slide 22: Progressing in portfolio rationalization and FIDs
Progressing in portfolio rationalization and FIDs Upstream Portfolio rationalization FIDs 2022 Spain Cease of production Russia AROG JV Karabashsky Eurotek- Yugra Karabashsky ASB Geo Pikka Unit 3Q22 Leon/Castile Vietnam 2Q22 Block 46 CN Ecuador Blocks 15-2 and 16/01 Blocks 16 and 67 Greece Lapa SW B
Slide 23: High grading portfolio supporting carbon intensity reduction
High grading portfolio supporting carbon intensity reduction Repsol to become tier 1 lowest carbon intensity High growth new barrels with lower with a 75% reduction emission intensity Emissions reduction Emissions intensity per barrel produced (kgCO2/boe) New production pushes down emissions intensi
Slide 24: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 24
Slide 25: Maximizing yield and developing the next wave of profitable growth
Maximizing yield and developing the next wave of profitable growth Refining1 Chemicals Trading ‒ ‒ ‒ Maximizing margin across businesses 1 Net Cash Margin 1Q Solomon and Wood Mackenzie Differentiation with high value products Maximize the integration and value from assets through a highly integrated
Slide 26: Solid cashflow generation and new businesses build up
Solid cashflow generation and new businesses build up Industrial FCF (B€) CAPEX (B€) 2025 BE1 reduction >$1.5/bbl CO2 reduction2 by 2025 > 2 Mt CO2 Low carbon 1. For Refining business 2. Scope 1+2+3 emissions 26
Slide 27: Maintaining competitiveness in a complex environment
Maintaining competitiveness in a complex environment Refining Strong focus on Maximizing margins competitiveness increase Reducing breakeven to Refining Margin Indicator support cashflow projections progressively recovering1 Maximizing margins generation / Maximizing margins − Supply chain: Greater
Slide 28: 25/25 decarbonization program with strong contribution to margin improvement and CO2 reduction
25/25 decarbonization program with strong contribution to margin improvement and CO2 reduction Maximizing energy efficiency with attractive returns New low carbon business selected projects C43: Waste & UCOs Investment Capacity Industrial energy efficiency treatment plant 250 kta Sustainable biofuel
Slide 29: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 29
Slide 30: Strong and growing profits and cash generation
Strong and growing profits and cash generation Customer-Centric Businesses Strategy 2021-25 Mobility leader in Key Longstanding Iberian continuous High-growth power foundations Energy Leader customer business transformation Multi-energy Cross-sell to current customers and channels, adding new servic
Slide 31: Launching Repsol's Transversal Loyalty Program
Launching Repsol's Transversal Loyalty Program to orchestrate customer-centric multienergy approach across customer base Engage customers repsol.es >8 M customers Transversal by 2025 loyalty Program >35 M >24 M >10 M 2M Repsol registered Repsol digital Mobility ‒ Integrated customer data Home app En
Slide 32: Growth ambition with strong FCF generation
Growth ambition with strong FCF generation Customer Centric Business Digital customers ('000) EBITDA (B€) FCF (B€) X 1.3 X 1.4 X 4.0 8,000 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.9 2,000 2020 2025 2019 2020 2025 2019 2020 2025 P&G + 1,100 k 2,000 k Mobility contribution margin (M€) x 1.15 E-Mobility customers Non-oil
Slide 33: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 33
Slide 34: Developing a competitive RES player with international platforms
Developing a competitive RES player with international platforms Low-Carbon Generation Estimated low carbon operating capacity (GW)1 Capex (B€) Gross EBITDA2 (M€) − Launch organic growth – development Phase I of Ready to Build and earlier stage 2019 3.0 Gw assets − Develop RES capabilities and proje
Slide 35: Strong portfolio of advanced stage projects with short term material growth
Strong portfolio of advanced stage projects with short term material growth and robust profitability Spain Chile Hydroelectric plants Delta Capacity: 699 MWp Capacity: 335 MWp PI (2 plants) Technology: COD: 221 Additional pipeline Elena Capacity: 175 MWp Capacity: 851 MW1 Capacity: 270 MWp Antofagas
Slide 36: De-risking the ambition: Hecate acquisition
De-risking the ambition: Hecate acquisition Low-Carbon Generation Well-diversified footprint across the Early and mid term projects The acquisition of a stake in Hecate Energy allows Repsol to most attractive US energy markets… create a high growth renewable platform with strong 16.8 GWdc developmen
Slide 37: Stepping up energy transition
Stepping up energy transition 04.
Slide 38: Decarbonization is an opportunity to build business platforms as technology evolves
Decarbonization is an opportunity to build business platforms as technology evolves 2025-2030 +2030 2020-2025 Advanced biofuels, biogas and recycling Industrial transformation Renewable hydrogen Synthetic fuels (e-fuels) Hybrid plants Renewable generation Stationary energy storage Low carbon power r
Slide 39: Ambition to become a leader in renewable H2 in the Iberian Peninsula
Ambition to become a leader in renewable H2 in the Iberian Peninsula Renewable Hydrogen Clear ambition2 to become Iberian leader Renewable H2 capacity under development [GWeq] Multi-technology approach New ambitions 3 1.9 GWeq providing flexibility, and optimizing production Electrolysis Biomethane
Slide 40: Repsol with clear advantages in renewable hydrogen production
Repsol with clear advantages in renewable hydrogen production Renewable Hydrogen Repsol's with an advantageous position resulting in tier#1 LCOH1 ~30% Spain, the best EU location to produce hydrogen with lower vs. a local renewable H2 producer electrolyzers − Renewable H2 production from biomethane
Slide 41: Repsol becoming an advantaged producer of low carbon fuels
Repsol becoming an advantaged producer of low carbon fuels Sustainable biofuels Repsol best positioned for sustainable Reaching > 2 Mta of low carbon With a multi-technology and raw biofuels production fuels in 20301 material approach Low carbon fuels gross production (Mta) Use of wastes as feedstoc
Slide 42: Repsol to develop widespread, smart, conveniently-located charging network
Repsol to develop widespread, smart, conveniently-located charging network e-Mobility 2022 Ultra / Fast +1,000 chargers every A very synergistic business with public attractive economics for Repsol 50km chargers The economics of E-Mobility & home power consumption are even Committed to develop a mor
Slide 43: Renewed decarbonization ambition
Renewed decarbonization ambition Repsol decarbonization pathway Carbon Intensity Indicator reduction targets [gCO2/MJ] Absolute emissions reduction (%) Scope 1&2 operated emissions [Mt CO2eq] Scope 1,2&3 net emissions [Mt CO2eq] -55% -30% 2016 2030 2016 2030 Methane intensity reduction 2025 vs 2017
Slide 44: Delivery 2021
Delivery 2021 05.
Slide 45: Value-over-volume with focus on capital efficiency and cash generation
Value-over-volume with focus on capital efficiency and cash generation Operational highlights – Upstream Production 4Q21 vs 3Q21 (Kboe/d) 39 -1 -1 -6 530 561 3Q21 Europe & Africa Latin America North America Asia, Russia & RoW 4Q21 Organic FCF breakeven1 <30 $/bbl in 2021 Production 4Q21 vs 4Q20 Prod
Slide 46: Solid results underpinned by the recovery of Refining and outstanding Chemicals
Solid results underpinned by the recovery of Refining and outstanding Chemicals Operational highlights - Industrial Refining Chemicals Stronger 4Q margins confirm the recovery of refining in 4Q above expectations helps beat FY guidance 2H21 Repsol’s refining margin indicator: 4.4 $/bbl 4Q21 vs 3.2 $
Slide 47: Transforming our industrial sites into decarbonized energy hubs
Transforming our industrial sites into decarbonized energy hubs Operational highlights - Industrial Low carbon fuels Renewable H2 Circularity 1.3 Mtpa by 2025 0.55 GWeq by 2025 and 1.9 GWeq by Polyolefin production recycling 10% Targets >2 Mtpa by 20301 2030 by 20252 & 20% by 2030 C43 - Cartagena Ag
Slide 48: First asset rotation and new FIDs in Renewables
First asset rotation and new FIDs in Renewables Operational highlights - Commercial and Renewables Mobility Retail Electricity & Gas Renewables Omicron drags the recovery of sales in 1.3 Million retail E&G customers by end Delivering on goals and adding new 4Q21 of 2021 opportunities Sales in Servic
Slide 49: Ensuring performance and financial strength while boosting transformation
Ensuring performance and financial strength while boosting transformation Outlook 2022 • Brent 70 $/bbl Environment • Henry Hub 3.7 $/Mbtu • Refining Margin Indicator 4 $/bbl Production ~ 600 Kboe/d CFFO ~ €5.8 B Capex ~ €3.8 B • ~ 30% Low Carbon • €0.63 /share cash dividend (+ 5% vs 2021) • 75 M sh
Slide 50: Stepping up the Transition
Investor Stepping up the Transition Update Driving growth and value March 2022 50