Ninety One Plc · LSE:N91
Ninety One — Ninety One SA Global Investment Forum 2024
20 slides from Ninety One's conference presentation, 2024
Slide 1: Balancing the promise and perils of AI
Balancing the promise and perils of AI Lucia Pino-Garcia Chief Technology Officer at Ninety One William Nott Portfolio Manager, Quality at Ninety One Euro Beinat Global Head of AI and Data Science at Prosus Group Confidential | Ninety One 1
Slide 2: Target audience
Target audience Audience This document is being provided for informational purposes for discussion with institutional investors and financial advisors only. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to enter into any contract, investment advice, a rec
Slide 3: What do these companies have in common?
What do these companies have in common? Confidential | Ninety One 3
Slide 4: More than just semantics: an existential choice
More than just semantics: an existential choice “Companies that best use technology to create competitive advantage will win” Confidential | Ninety One 5
Slide 5: ChatGPT
ChatGPT Friedman described as a Promethean Moment Confidential | Ninety One 6
Slide 6: Concept of AI isn't new, it's been building for years
Concept of AI isn’t new, it’s been building for years Rate of adoption is the differentiator Source: OurWorldinData, Morgan Stanley Research Confidential | Ninety One 7
Slide 7: Power of Data
Power of Data – 1% of global data being stored and used – 90% of the world’s data was created in the last two years – Warp speed divergent from human capabilities Confidential | Ninety One 8
Slide 8: Productivity
Productivity Automation is not the preserve of the mundane alone Jason Allen’s AI generated work “Theatre D’Opera Spatial” Confidential | Ninety One 9
Slide 9: Not all rosy
Not all rosy – Cybercrime – Costs – Hallucinations: lying convincingly at scale – Regulatory overreach – Dampening curiosity – Bias – 90% of decision making – Monolithic corpus influenced by AI of knowledge Confidential | Ninety One 10
Slide 10: At Ninety One, we value the use of technology to amplify and accelerate our purpose
At Ninety One, we value the use of technology to amplify and accelerate our purpose Our strategy for adoption – Ways of Work curiosity and experimentation – Leveraging commodified M365 and SalesForce – Partnerships StateStreet, UST and others – Use cases and thought leadership AI Squad – Too
Slide 11: Investing in AI
William Nott Investing in AI Confidential | Ninety One 12
Slide 12: Agenda: What's the Context? Is Growth Sustainable? What's Mispriced?
Agenda 1 What’s the Context? 2 Is Growth Sustainable? 3 What’s Mispriced? – How is this AI cycle – Is infrastructure spending – Which use cases are different? overestimating demand? overhyped? – What does that mean for – Who will pay for the – What is the market use cases? investment? underappreciat
Slide 13: What's the Context?
What’s the Context? “As soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore.” - John McCarthy Confidential | Ninety One 14
Slide 14: Pace of innovation
What’s the Context? Dall-E 2 released GPT-2 released ChatGPT GPT-1 released AlphaZero released released LLMs emerge AlphaGo beats world Transformer CNNs beat champion model Generative humans at invented Adversarial image Convolution TPUs released Networks recognition ImageNet Neural Nets (CNNs) (GAN
Slide 15: Is Growth Sustainable?
Is Growth Sustainable? Future opportunities Apps and risks Models Market Infrastructure focus area No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past, or that significant losses will be avoided. This is not a buy,
Slide 16: Is Growth Sustainable? Mobile Cycle Relative Returns
Is Growth Sustainable? Mobile Cycle Relative Returns (%) 300% Semiconductors Devices & Infrastructure Software/Services 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Feb-10 Feb-14 Aug-10 Feb-15 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Feb-16 May-10 Aug-12 Aug-13 May-15 May-11 Aug-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-16 Nov-10 N
Slide 17: Is Growth Sustainable? AI Cycle Relative Returns
Is Growth Sustainable? AI Cycle Relative Returns (%) 500% Semiconductors Software/Services Cloud Providers 400% 300% Risk of 200% Overbuild? 100% 0% -100% Source: Ninety One, Bloomberg. Semiconductors – based on equally weighted performance of Nvidia/AMD, Cloud Providers based on equally weight perf
Slide 18: Is Growth Sustainable? Hyperscale Capex
Is Growth Sustainable? Hyperscale Capex ($m) 200,000 Google Microsoft Meta AWS 184,384 180,000 165,882 160,000 140,000 120,000 114,557 112,467 100,000 85,999 80,000 69,415 65,633 60,469 60,000 37,236 40,000 28,239 22,570 23,098 20,000 - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E S
Slide 19: What's Mispriced?
What’s Mispriced? Since ChatGPT Returns (%) AI winners? Not sure? AI losers? 167% 129% 62% 46% 52% -54% -82% MSCI ACWI Palantir C3.ai Adobe Salesforce Teleperformance Chegg Source: Ninety One, Bloomberg. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or loss
Slide 20: Important information
Important information This communication is for professional investors and financial advisors only. The information may discuss general market activity or industry trends and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The economic and market views presented herei
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