Infratil Limited · NZX:IFT
Infratil — Investor Day (March 2024)
17 slides from Infratil's investor day presentation, Mar 5, 2024
Slide 1: Investor Day 2024
Investor Day 2024 March 5, 2024 Photo: ‘Infinite Skies’ by David Beavis
Slide 2: Track record
Track record Inception to date GW 4.9 Developed 0.5 Acquired 5.4 Total (1.9) Sold 3.5 Net owned 2.0 Third-party services COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. 2
Slide 3: US Renewable market (2023-2030)
US Renewable market (2023-2030) Generational growth opportunity Projected annual US wind and solar capacity additions • Utility scale solar, onshore wind, storage buildout projection is 489 GW • ~40 GW built in 2023 Source: EIA, BloombergNEF. Note: Solar capacity in GW (DC) terms COPYRIGHT © LONGROA
Slide 4: Longroad 2027: 9.5 GW, US$600m+ Run Rate EBITDA
Longroad 2027: 9.5 GW, US$600m+ Run Rate EBITDA Positioned well for continued growth Market share (utility scale) • 2024-27 @ 2.8% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% % of BNEF 1.5 GW p.a. projections • Backed by >28 $800 9.5 10.0 GW pipeline OpCo Run Rate EBITDA US$m $700 9.0 8.0 8.0 • Utility scale $600 share 2-3
Slide 5: Broad Market Comps GW per year
Broad Market Comps GW per year December 2023 • 3.5 GW built in 2023 Investor • 25-30 GW between 2023-27 presentation (5.5 GW p.a. at midpoint) 22 February 2024 • Expect 7 GW over next four years Earnings call 2024-27 (1.75 GW p.a.) 25 January 2024 • Expect 32.7 – 41.8 GW between Earnings call 2023-2
Slide 6: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 IRA impacts taking hold in US renewables market 10-year PTC including solar ITC • Guidance issued 10-year ITC • Guidance issued; solar and storage guidance needs clarification Stand-alone storage ITC • Guidance issued and working Energy communities • Guidance issued a
Slide 7: Macro market points
Macro market points • Equipment procurement Thesis on scale • Financing (high street) is holding • Competitive advantage in M&A • IRA final guidance Challenges • Long lead times MPT / HV / MV remain • Interest rates / PPA prices vs. Returns • 2024 election • Track record, team, values Longroad • Ali
Slide 8: Operating assets
Operating assets 3.5 GW / 16 projects Longroad owned (operating and in-construction) and third-party managed assets COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. 8
Slide 9: Opco 2023 Performance – Run Rate EBITDA
Opco 2023 Performance – Run Rate EBITDA Pricing / Resource Availability Other market US$000s Actual +5% v. plan • 15.8 years remaining life (weighted average) Plan • 94% of the debt is hedged • One recordable injury COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. 9
Slide 10: Construction: 4 projects / 1.8 GW
Construction: 4 projects / 1.8 GW COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. 10
Slide 11: Construction costs
Construction costs Price movements of key components rebased to one in January 2020 Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal. Note: Data rebased to 1 on earliest available date in January 2020. Shanghai-LA freight rates used, steel reflects North America costs, while aluminium and copper are China p
Slide 12: Total pipeline growth – January 2022 to January 2024
Total pipeline growth – January 2022 to January 2024 35,000 28.6 GW 30,000 25,000 +61% 20,000 17.8 GW +38% 15,000 12.9 GW 10,000 5,000 - Jan. 2022 Jan. 2023 Jan. 2024 CAISO AZ PAC SCPPA/LA NVE MTN West HI ISONE SPP MISO PJM ERCOT Other COPYRIGHT © LONGROAD ENERGY HOLDINGS, LLC. 12
Slide 13: Pipeline breakdown by year (GW)
Pipeline breakdown by year (GW) Pipeline breakdown by project total MW and FNTP year 30000 27500 Wind, 6% BESS,11% 25000 11.5 GW 22500 PV, 2% 19 projects 20000 PV + BESS, 81% 17500 15000 4.9 GW 14 projects 12500 10000 5.7 GW 14 projects 7500 ~70 active projects 5000 1.6 GW 4.9 GW out to 2028+ 2500 5
Slide 14: 2024-27 Plan candidate projects
2024-27 Plan candidate projects > 2.8 x Coverage to hit next 6 GW by 2027 2024 2025 2026 2027 GW under active development 1.6 4.9 5.7 4.9 Number of projects 5 16 14 14 Yearly target (GW) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Implied coverage 1.1x 3.3x 3.8x 3.3x Revenue contracts signed or negotiating 1.6 1.3 0 0 Regional
Slide 15: 9.5 GW and US$600m+ Opco run-rate EBITDA by 2027
9.5 GW and US$600m+ Opco run-rate EBITDA by 2027 Longroad project run-rate opco EBITDA $1,000 $900 ~9.5 GW EBITDA (US$ in millions) $800 $700 $600 $111 Operating and $500 in construction $143 $400 3.5 GW $127 $300 $80 $200 $100 -- 2023 Adjusted 2024 2025 2026 2027 2024 projects EBITDA 2025 projects
Slide 16: Funding 2024-27 growth (US$8B/6 GW)
Funding 2024-27 growth (US$8B/6 GW) Sources Funded until mid-2025, absent an acceleration • Well-capitalized developers have competitive advantage • The renewables business has evolved to larger projects and higher development costs • Tax equity market remains tight • Future sources include holding
Slide 17: Questions?
Photo by Nolan Hartleben Questions?