Repsol Sa · BME:REP
Repsol Sa — Investor Presentation (November 2022)
49 slides from Repsol Sa's investor presentation, November 2022
Slide 1: Investor Update: Stepping up the Transition
Investor Stepping up the Transition Update Driving growth and value November 2022 1
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED ©REPSOL,S.A.2022 This document contains information and statements that constitute forward-looking statements about Repsol. Such estimates or projections may include statements about current plans, objectives and expectations, including statements regarding trends
Slide 3: Strategic Plan 2021-2025: Delivering a compelling investment case into the Transition
Strategic Plan 2021-2025: Delivering a compelling investment case into the Transition ‒ A legacy double-geared engine providing cash-flow and solid foundations for the Transition ‒ Profitable business platforms with leading advantaged positions: Iberia & Downstream ‒ New operating model, catalyzing
Slide 4: Index
Index 01. Path to 2030 02. Strategy 2021-2025 03. Business strategies 04. Stepping up energy transition 05. Delivery 2022
Slide 5: Path to 2030
Path to 2030 01.
Slide 6: Ambitious transformation journey to thrive in Energy Transition
Ambitious transformation journey to thrive in Energy Transition De-carbonize New operating the portfolio Profitable Four verticals model FCF growth New partnerships Path to 2030 Advantaged Value transformation crystallization Towards Net Zero emissions Leading investor proposition 6
Slide 7: Repsol 2030: A more sustainable, balanced and profitable company
Repsol 2030: A more sustainable, balanced and profitable company Transforming the company's portfolio Strong cash-flow growth CE 2019 CE 2025 CE 2030 FCF (B€) 8% 7% 10% 5 % Low Carbon Retail 2% 12% Customer centric business 25% x 2.6 Renewables 34% 37% Industrial transformation (circularity, H2 & e-
Slide 8: Strategy 2021-25
Strategy 2021-25: 02.
Slide 9: Delivering financial targets while transforming the company
Delivering financial targets while transforming the company Ambition 21-25 2021 - 2022 2023 - 2025 Ensuring strong Accelerating transformation and delivering performance and financial strength growth In an uncertain economic and commodities environment ‒ Efficiency & capital discipline ‒ Portfolio o
Slide 10: Strong growth in per share metrics driving valuation upsides
Strong growth in per share metrics driving valuation upsides +20%CAGR +7%CAGR +10%CAGR FCF per share CFFO per share Adjusted Net Income per share 3.2 5.7 2.2 0.6 €/sh €/sh +7% €/sh CAGR 4.6 +10% 2.1 CAGR 1.5 +20% CAGR 5.0 1.8 2.6 2.1 3.3 1.0 0.8 Adjusted1 2019 2025 Adjusted1 2019 2025 Adjusted1 2019
Slide 11: Self-financed plan
Self-financed plan Cash generation Cumulative sources and uses of cash, 2021-2025 (B€) 2021-2025 B-even post-dividends ($/bbl) Shares buyback Divestments1 29.4 29.4 & Optionalities 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.6 5.0 4.7 4.4 Dividends Financials2 $50/bbl 9.3 Additional Low Carbon FCF BE capex 2021-2025 3 (inc.
Slide 12: Discipline, flexibility and transformation: Capex 21-25
Discipline, flexibility and transformation Capex 21-25 Updated ambitions Building up transformation within 2021-2025 Profitable decarbonization Capex (B€/y) Updated ambition 2 4.0 IRR-WACC1 (%) 3.6 Capex to Low 0.4 >10% 0.2 0.3 €6.5 B Carbon3 projects in 2021-2025 0.9 0.8 0.9 35% of total capex 2.5
Slide 13: Legacy and new businesses driving portfolio performance along the Transition
Legacy and new businesses driving portfolio performance along the Transition Contribution to portfolio financial profile 21-25 Capital Employed 2025 21-25 Capital Investment 1. Industrial includes Refining Spain and Peru R&M, Chemicals, Trading & Wholesale Gas businesses Note: Corporate values not c
Slide 14: Leading distribution and clear capital allocation framework
Leading distribution and clear capital allocation framework Capital allocation 21-25 Resilient shareholder remuneration Capital allocation priorities Capital 200 M shares +5% over original Dividend 2022 €0.63 SP commitment reduction 100% SBB If Price deck 4 Extra shareholder distribution 20221 Divid
Slide 15: Specific gearing target range, preserving a strong financial structure
Specific gearing target range, preserving a strong financial structure 2021-2025 gearing1 25% average Strong Liquidity Position €8.2 B Proforma 2020 2021-22 2023-25 Same Debt with strong EBITDA growth Committed Credit lines Cash & Eq. Maturities ‒ Current liquidity covering > 1.3 times total maturit
Slide 16: Business strategies
Business strategies 03.
Slide 17: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 17
Slide 18: Repsol E&P priorities 2021-25
Repsol E&P priorities 2021-25 1 FCF as a priority (Leading FCF B-even) 2 Resilient Value delivery 3 Focused portfolio 4 Tier 1 CO2 emissions − FCF breakeven <$40/bbl − Top leading project − Value over volume − Emissions intensity − Low capital intensity and profitability • Flexible production level
Slide 19: Focus on capital efficiency and cash generation
Focus on capital efficiency and cash generation Upstream FCF (B€) @50/2.5 FCF BE, Brent ($/bbl) OPEX reduction (B€) Emissions reduction (Mt CO2) -20% -15% x 1.5 -75% 4.50.9 < 50 2.1 10.3 0.6 1.8 < 40 -0.1 2.5 Av. 2016-18 Av. 2019-20 Av. 2021-25 2016-2020 2021-2025 Av. 2016-20 Av. 2021-25 2020 2021-2
Slide 20: Focus portfolio and capex allocation: Playing to our core areas
Focus portfolio and capex allocation: Playing to our core areas Upstream Portfolio span reduction from >25 to <14 countries ambition Highly selective new exploration strategy Successful track record discovering additional resources Alaska Norway in productive basins recently Canada UK ‒ Alaska Nor
Slide 21: Focus portfolio and capex allocation: projects self-funded 21-25
Focus portfolio and capex allocation: projects self-funded 21-25 Upstream Resilient and Flexible capital program Alaska Pikka (USA) <40 YME (Nor) <30 Self-funded projects ‒ FO: 2026 ‒ FO: 2021 ‒ Capex 21-25: 1.0 B$ ‒ Capex 21-25: 0.2 B$ ‒ Oil (Brent) ‒ Oil (Brent) <40 Shenzi (USA) ‒ SSPump, Sh. Nort
Slide 22: Progressing in portfolio rationalization and FIDs
Progressing in portfolio rationalization and FIDs Upstream Portfolio rationalization FIDs 2022 Spain Cease of production Russia AROG JV v Karabashsky Eurotek- Yugra Karabashsky ASB Geo Pikka Unit (Alaska) Eagle Ford 3rd phase (US) 3Q22 3Q22 Cypre (T&T) Leon/Castile (GoM) 3Q22 Vietnam 2Q22 Block 46 C
Slide 23: High grading portfolio supporting carbon intensity reduction
High grading portfolio supporting carbon intensity reduction Repsol to become tier 1 lowest carbon intensity High growth new barrels with lower with a 75% reduction emission intensity Emissions reduction Emissions intensity per barrel produced (kgCO2/boe) New production pushes down emissions intensi
Slide 24: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 24
Slide 25: Maximizing yield and developing the next wave of profitable growth
Maximizing yield and developing the next wave of profitable growth Refining1 Chemicals Trading ‒ ‒ ‒ Maximizing margin across businesses 1 Net Cash Margin 1Q Solomon and Wood Mackenzie Differentiation with high value products Maximize the integration and value from assets through a highly integrated
Slide 26: Solid cashflow generation and new businesses build up
Solid cashflow generation and new businesses build up Industrial FCF (B€) CAPEX (B€) 2025 BE1 reduction >$1.5/bbl CO2 reduction2 by 2025 > 2 Mt CO2 Low carbon 1. For Refining business 2. Scope 1+2+3 emissions 26
Slide 27: Maintaining competitiveness in a complex environment
Maintaining competitiveness in a complex environment Refining Strong focus on Maximizing margins competitiveness increase Reducing breakeven to Refining Margin Indicator support cashflow projections progressively recovering1 Maximizing margins generation / Maximizing margins − Supply chain: Greater
Slide 28: 25/25 decarbonization program with strong contribution to margin improvement and CO2 reduction
25/25 decarbonization program with strong contribution to margin improvement and CO2 reduction Maximizing energy efficiency with attractive returns New low carbon business selected projects C43: Waste & UCOs Investment Capacity Industrial energy efficiency treatment plant 250 kta Sustainable biofuel
Slide 29: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 29
Slide 30: Strong and growing profits and cash generation
Strong and growing profits and cash generation Customer-Centric Businesses Strategy 2021-25 Mobility leader in Key Longstanding Iberian continuous High-growth power foundations Energy Leader customer business transformation Multi-energy Cross-sell to current customers and channels, adding new servic
Slide 31: Launching Repsol's Transversal Loyalty Program
Launching Repsol's Transversal Loyalty Program to orchestrate customer-centric multienergy approach across customer base Engage customers repsol.es >8 M customers Transversal by 2025 >35 M >24 M >10 M 2 M1 loyalty Program Repsol registered Repsol digital Mobility ‒ Integrated customer data Home app
Slide 32: Growth ambition with strong FCF generation
Growth ambition with strong FCF generation Customer Centric Business Digital customers ('000) EBITDA (B€) FCF (B€) X 1.3 X 1.4 X 4.0 8,000 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.9 2,000 2020 2025 2019 2020 2025 2019 2020 2025 P&G + 1,100 k 2,000 k Mobility contribution margin (M€) x 1.15 E-Mobility customers Non-oil
Slide 33: Setting the new business priorities
Setting the new business priorities Upstream Industrial Customer-centric Low-carbon generation Yield and Focus Yield and New Platforms Yield and Transformation Business Build 33
Slide 34: Developing a competitive RES player with international platforms
Developing a competitive RES player with international platforms Low-Carbon Generation Estimated low carbon operating capacity (GW)1 Capex (B€) Gross EBITDA2 (M€) − Launch organic growth – development Phase I of Ready to Build and earlier stage 2019 3.0 Gw assets − Develop RES capabilities and proje
Slide 35: Strong portfolio of advanced stage projects with short term material growth
Strong portfolio of advanced stage projects with short term material growth and robust profitability Spain Chile Hydroelectric plants Delta I Capacity: 699 MWp Capacity: 335 MWp PI (2 plants) Technology: Technology: Additional pipeline Elena Capacity: 175 MWp Capacity: 851 MW1 Capacity: 270 MWp Anto
Slide 36: De-risking the ambition: Hecate acquisition
De-risking the ambition: Hecate acquisition Low-Carbon Generation Well-diversified footprint across the Early and mid term projects The acquisition of a stake in Hecate Energy allows Repsol to most attractive US energy markets… create a high growth renewable platform with strong 16.8 GWdc developmen
Slide 37: Stepping up energy transition
Stepping up energy transition 04.
Slide 38: Decarbonization is an opportunity to build business platforms as technology evolves
Decarbonization is an opportunity to build business platforms as technology evolves 2025-2030 +2030 2020-2025 Advanced biofuels, biogas and recycling Industrial transformation Renewable hydrogen Synthetic fuels (e-fuels) Hybrid plants Renewable generation Stationary energy storage Low carbon power r
Slide 39: Ambition to become a leader in renewable H2 in the Iberian Peninsula
Ambition to become a leader in renewable H2 in the Iberian Peninsula Renewable Hydrogen Clear ambition2 to become Iberian leader Renewable H2 capacity under development [GWeq] Multi-technology approach New ambitions3 1.9 GWeq providing flexibility, and optimizing production Electrolysis Biomethane P
Slide 40: Repsol with clear advantages in renewable hydrogen production
Repsol with clear advantages in renewable hydrogen production Renewable Hydrogen Repsol's with an advantageous position resulting in tier#1 LCOH1 ~30% Spain, the best EU location to produce hydrogen with lower vs. a local renewable H2 producer electrolyzers − Renewable H2 production from biomethane
Slide 41: Repsol becoming an advantaged producer of low carbon fuels
Repsol becoming an advantaged producer of low carbon fuels Sustainable biofuels Repsol best positioned for sustainable Reaching > 2 Mta of low carbon With a multi-technology and raw biofuels production fuels in 20301 material approach Low carbon fuels gross production (Mta) Use of wastes as feedstoc
Slide 42: Repsol to develop widespread, smart, conveniently-located charging network
Repsol to develop widespread, smart, conveniently-located charging network e-Mobility Ultra / Fast +1,000 2022 chargers every A very synergistic business with public attractive economics for Repsol 50km chargers The economics of E-Mobility & home power consumption are even Committed to develop a mor
Slide 43: Renewed decarbonization ambition
Renewed decarbonization ambition Repsol decarbonization pathway Carbon Intensity Indicator reduction targets [gCO2/MJ] Absolute emissions reduction (%) Scope 1&2 operated emissions [Mt CO2eq] Scope 1,2&3 net emissions [Mt CO2eq] -55% -30% 2016 2030 2016 2030 Methane intensity reduction 2025 vs 2017
Slide 44: Delivery 2022
Delivery 2022 05.
Slide 45: EIG's acquisition of 25% Upstream equity stake for $3.4 B
EIG’s acquisition of 25% Upstream equity stake for $3.4 B Value crystallization through partnerships Transaction structure Equity payment to Repsol Enterprise Value for Repsol Upstream of $19.0 B $3.4B • Net Financial Debt $5.6 B • $13.4 B resulting Equity value EIG’s acquisition of 25% Working Inte
Slide 46: EIP - Crédit Agricole acquisition of 25% Repsol Renovables equity stake for €0.9 B
EIP - Crédit Agricole acquisition of 25% Repsol Renovables equity stake for €0.9 B Value crystallization through partnerships Transaction Overview Equity payment to • Price implies valuing Repsol’s renewables business at €4.4 B, including debt Repsol • Partnership with reputable, experienced investo
Slide 47: Moving forward towards strategic objectives in a volatile environment
Moving forward towards strategic objectives in a volatile environment Key messages 3Q22 Accelerating portfolio transformation EIG to acquire 25% of Repsol’s Upstream business for $3.4 B ($4.8 B EV) €1.5 B €3.2 B €4.3 B proceeds and €23 B EV (100%) between Upstream and Renewables transactions Adjuste
Slide 48: Increasing shareholder distributions in higher price scenario
Increasing shareholder distributions in higher price scenario Outlook Production FY22 at 550 Kboe/d -20 Kboe/d vs previous guidance Cash Flow From Operations FY22 €8.4 - 8.7 B Capex FY22 ~ €4 B Shareholder Remuneration Distribute 25-30% of organic CFFO 150 M shares already cancelled YTD Additional 5
Slide 49: Investor Update: Stepping up the Transition
Investor Stepping up the Transition Update Driving growth and value November 2022 49