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Ninety One — Nazmeera Moola webinar, 5 May 2020
9 slides from Ninety One's conference presentation, May 2020
Slide 1: The big picture: Outlook amid the chaos
The big picture: Outlook amid the chaos May 2020
Slide 2: Important information
Important information All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such i
Slide 3: SA political dynamics
SA political dynamics Nationwide polling for the support and opposition of the lockdown National support for the lockdown has waned due to: (1) the economic reality, and (2) Ministerial bungling Source: SA Institute of Race Relations, March & April 2020 3
Slide 4: COVID-19 Pandemic will have an unprecedented damaging effect on the SA economy
The COVID-19 Pandemic will have an unprecedent damaging effect on the SA economy with a surge in job losses & poverty SA economy ramp-up by sector post 5-week lock-down # of employees per 100% sectors in millions 90% Proportion of economy at pre-COVID level Govt & Personal 2.8 Care 80% Agriculture F
Slide 5: Growth assumptions
With a long term impact on economic capacity Size of South Africa’s GDP under different recovery Shape of the recovery in 2021 is key. What are scenarios. 2019 = ZAR5 trillion the assumptions behind each scenario? 5.4 V-shaped recovery – the SA economy is back to pre-COVID levels by 2022: 5.2 5.2 –
Slide 6: The financial response needs to be significant and involve all pools of capital
The financial response needs to be significant and involve all pools of capital. Current plans may not be enough – The financial response will need to equate to 15%-20% of GDP – SA government has limited capacity to provide fiscal stimulus – Bulk of recent package involves redirection of expenditure
Slide 7: Prescribed assets
Prescribed assets When would government consider this route? Source: Business Day 7
Slide 8: Important information
Important information All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such i
Slide 9: Thank you
Thank you www.ninetyone.com