Profit guidance raised despite sharp sales fall

Forterra's FY23E trading update for the 12 months to 31 December guides to adjusted EBITDA 'slightly ahead' of its expectations despite brick volumes falling by over a third during the year. We have raised our adjusted PBT and EPS estimates for FY23E and introduced forecasts for FY24E taking our cue from the cautious tone in the outlook statement, which cites uncertainties ahead of a general election. However, we suggest Forterra's large housebuilding customers could outperform this view.