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Pacific Basin Shipping : Third Quarter 2025 Trading Update Presentation
Pacific Basin Shipping : Third Quarter 2025 Trading Update

About this update from Pacific Basin Shipping Limited
3g25 TRADING UPDATE 16 OETOBER 2025 @SINGAPORE RESILIENCE NAVIGATING WITH Handysize Market Spot Rates (BHSI) 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted^) US$/day net* 18,000 16,000 US$/day net* 18,000 16,000 Supramax Market Spot Rates (BSI) 58k dwt $15,093 14,000 12,000 10,000 $14,064 FFA Average* $13,090 14,000 12,000 10,000 FFA Average* $14,140 8,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3Q25 Average: $11,602 1% YoY 6,000 4,000 3Q25 Average: $14,345 4% YoY 2,000 2,000 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2023 2024 2025 2025 (FFA) Data as at 10 October 2025 ^ Spot market rates adjusted downwards to reflect the smaller average deadweight tonnage of our PB Core Handysize fleet compared to the Baltic Exchange benchmark 38,200 dwt vessel * Excludes 5% commission and tonnage adjusted for Handysize Source: Baltic Exchange 2017-2021 range 2022 2023 2024 2025 240 230 220 Million Tons 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 170 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 Operations in Australia were disrupted by cyclones in Q1. Mining majors have been rushing to catch up with targets since then, but exports remain -3% YoY Bad weather also impacted Brazil exports in Q1, though new mine capacity helped quickly restore volumes. Exports are +1% YoY in YTD and +7% YoY in Q3 India is a major exporter, but has ambitious targets to raise domestic steel production, and may have hit a tipping point. Exports are -27% YoY in Q3, but imports are +6%. 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 Grain shipments to China reduced sharply by 15% YoY due to a fourth consecutive record domestic harvest, as it reduces reliance on imports amid trade friction China has switched soyabean sourcing away from US towards Brazil, but has also cut corn purchases, leaving Brazil's total grain exports down -12% YoY. US exports are still up 12% YoY, as there are still ready buyers in MENA, SE Asia, and Latam. Strong exports also seen from Canada, Argentina, and Australia. 160 Million Tons Million Tons 150 140 130 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 110 Million Tons Main drivers of increased YoY loadings of minor bulk include bauxite, minor ores and concentrates, and fertilizers Bauxite loadings from Guinea into China remained strong, up 39% YoY for Jan-Aug 25 Chinese steel exports up 10% YTD, despite steel production down -1% YTD, as demand from EMs remains resilient Largest detractors included petcoke, forest products and scrap steel Excluding bauxite loadings, minor bulk YoY growth would be 2.8% Source: Indicative loading data and material from Oceanbolt, all rights reserved. Data as at 08 October 2025, subject to revision Reduction in volumes due to weaker imports to China, S. Korea, Taiwan, and India China's seaborne imports dropped -15% YoY due to rising overland trade from Mongolia, high stocks, and higher share of renewables This has mainly impacted exports from China's major suppliers, Indonesia (-6% YoY) and Australia (-4% YoY), though the latter is up +2% YoY in Q3 Imports into other EM Asia countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Malaysia offered some support Core Business Operating Activity $11,010 $11,680 $12,380 # # $9,790 72% of days 8% of days US$/day 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 Handysize Core Business TCE # $14,060 $12,230 $13,410 # $13,200 87% of days 24% of days US$/day 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 Supramax Core Business TCE US$/day 820 750 600 90 1,500 1,000 500 1,300 Operating Activity Margin 0 1H25 3Q25 4Q25 2026 Indicative 1H25 Core Fleet Cash Break-even incl. G&A = US$7,210 0 1H25 3Q25 4Q25 2026 Indicative 1H25 Core fleet Cash Break-even incl. G&A = US$6,540 0 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 Average daily TCE earnings in 3Q25 was down by 15% YoY. We outperformed the Handysize BHSI spot market index by US$90 per day in the period. YTD outperformance was US$1,540 per day. Average daily TCE earnings in 3Q was up by 10% YoY. We underperformed the Supramax BSI spot market index by US$900 per day in 3Q 25. However, we outperformed the BSI by US$1,960 per day for YTD. Impacted by a strong uptick in market rates in Q325, which is typical in a fast rising freight market due to the lag between spot market fixtures and execution of voyages In 3Q25, our operating activity generated a margin of US$750 per day, a decrease of 42% YoY Our operating activity days decreased 2% YoY to 6,830 days in 3Q25 (3Q24: 6,950 days) 4Q 2025 FFA rates : Handysize: $13,09 3 0 Supramax: $14,140 2026 FFA rates : Handysize: $10,630 Supramax: $11,650 # As at mid October 2025 , indicative TCE rates only as voyages are still in progress ^ Source: Baltic Exchange, data as at 09 Oct 2025, excludes 5% commission and Handysize FFA rates are tonnage adjusted (total tonne-mile +1.3% YoY) (minor bulk tonne-mile + 3.7% YoY) 5,639 , 0.1% Total Dry Bulk 2,724 , 2.5% PB focus cargo 63 , -10.0% 161 , -1.1% 91 , -1.5% 52 , -1.8% 140 , 4.5% 60 , 3.5% 40 , 3.4% 44 , 2.9% 212 , 2.8% 179 , 2.7% 209 , 1.5% 401 , 0.6% 378 , 0.4% 107 , 0.3% 317 , 0.0% Bauxite / Alumina Cement Salt Copper Concentrates Manganese Ore Fertiliser Soybean Agribulks Steel Products Wheat / Grains Coke & Petcoke Forest Products Sand, Stone & Aggregate Scrap Steel Nickel Ore Sugar 270 , 21.8% Total (Iron Ore + Coal) 2,916 , -2.0% 1,604 , 0.4% Coal 1,311 , -4.8% Iron Ore 2025F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes (Mt, YOY) 2026F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes (Mt, YOY) 1,268 , -3.3% Coal Minor Bulk: Broad-based increased trade volume (tonnes) of 2.7% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 Bauxite / Alumina, manganese ore and scrap Iron Ore Total (Iron Ore + Coal) 2,876 , -1.4% Bauxite / Alumina Manganese Ore 1,608 , 0.2% 286 , 5.9% 46 , 4.3% steel are expected to remain robust and drive minor bulk volumes Iron Ore: New mine expansions should maintain seaborne volumes, despite low Soybean PB Focus PB Focus Scrap Steel Copper Concentrates Coke & Petcoke Salt Cement Nickel Ore Fertiliser Forest Products Sugar Agribulks Sand, Stone & Aggregate Wheat / Grains Steel Products PB focus cargo Total Dry Bulk 396 , -1.2% 185 , 3.6% 94 , 3.5% 41 , 3.3% 111 , 3.1% 61 , 2.8% 144 , 2.5% 53 , 2.5% 216 , 1.7% 323 , 1.6% 63 , 1.2% 211 , 1.2% 162 , 1.1% 382 , 1.0% 2,775 , 1.9% 5,651 , 0.2% prices and passing of "peak steel" in China Coal: Demand from major importers expected to continue to decline, as China sources more coal overland from Mongolia, and renewables share of power generation rises in China and developed economies in Asia and Europe Grains: Brazil is projected to achieve record soybean crop in 2025, and is poised to replace US as top exporter to China, potentially increasing tonne-mile However, China's plan to reduce reliance on imports amidst rising global trade tensions may weigh on other grain (wheat, corn, (total tonne-mile +1.1%YoY) (minor bulk tonne-mile +2.0% YoY) sorghum) volumes in the long run Source: Clarksons Research, data as at October 2025 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% % of Total Fleet 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Total Dry Bulk Supply Development 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F Handysize/Supramax Supply Development 4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 6.0% 5.0% % of Total Fleet 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2022 2023 2024 2025F 2026F The minor bulk fleet is forecast to grow 4.3% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 driven by higher deliveries, estimated to add 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, against scrapping of only -0.4% in 2025 and -0.5% in 2026 The combined Handysize and Supramax orderbook currently stands at 10.3% of total fleet, newbuild ordering has dropped by 76% year-on-year New Deliveries Deliveries Forecast Scrapping Scrapping Forecast Net Fleet Growth The scrapping pool continues to increase; Approx.14% now of Handysize and Supramax capacity is over 20 years old 10.3% of the fleet is on order 13.6% of the fleet is 20 years or older 30 25 20 15 10 5 - 40 20 - 10.8% of the fleet is on order 11.% of the fleet is 20 years or older 60 80 Handysize/Supramax Fleet Age Profile 40 35 Total Dry Bulk Fleet Age Profile 120 100 Compliance with emissions regulations (e.g. CII, EU ETS, FuelEU and IMO mid-term measures) will likely further reduce dry bulk supply through slower speeds and scrapping Million Dwt <2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Million Dwt <2000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Source: Clarksons Research, data as at October 2025 Current Core Fleet (as at 30 September 2025) Ultramax/Handysize Newbuild and 10-Year Old Secondhand # Vessel Values 35 Ultramax Newbuild (61-64.5K) Ultramax Secondhand 10YO (61K ECO)* Handysize Newbuild (38-42K) Handysize Secondhand 10YO (37K ECO) 33.25 30 29.25 25 24.00 20 20. 50 15 10 40 108 13 121 Vessels owned Long-term Chartered 1 Total core vessels US$ milliion 1 Supramax sold 2 Handysize purchase option exercised and delivered 1 Ultramax purchase option exercised but yet to be delivered 2 Ultramax Newbuilding (64k dwt) delivered 4 Handysize purchase options declarable 1 Ultramax Newbuilding (64k dwt) 1 Handysize Newbuilding (42k dwt) to be delivered 4 Low-emission dual-fuel methanol Ultramax Newbuildings (64k dwt) 5 Handysize and 4 Ultramax purchase options declarable Q3 2025 2026 5 2028+ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 Source: Clarksons Research, data as at 10 Oct 2025 *61K (eco) since Jan 24, 58K pre-Jan 24 Newbuilding prices vary by country of build, delivery and ship specification 1 Average number of long-term vessels operated in September 2025 # Includes one Capesize vessel
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