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Pacific Basin Shipping : Third Quarter 2024 Trading Update Presentation

Pacific Basin Shipping : Third Quarter 2024 Trading Update

Pacific Basin Shipping LimitedOctober 17, 20244
Pacific Basin Shipping : Third Quarter 2024 Trading Update Presentation

About this update from Pacific Basin Shipping Limited

Handysize Market Spot Rates (BHSI) Supramax Market Spot Rates (BSI) US$/day net* 38k dwt (tonnage adjusted^) US$/day net* 58k dwt 35,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 $13,300 FFA Average* $11,390 FFA Average* $13,040 $11,360 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 - - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016-2020 2022 2023 2024 2024 (FFA) Data as at 11 October 2024 Excludes 5% commission Spot market rates adjusted downward to reflect expected actual earnings given our average deadweight tonnage of our Core Handysize fleet is lower than the Baltic Exchange benchmark Source: Baltic Exchange 2016-2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Mill tonnes 180 160 140 120 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Main drivers of increased YoY loadings of minor bulk include bauxite, agribulks and fertilisers in 3Q24 3Q24 record bauxite loadings from Guinea - mostly carried in Capesize and Panamax vessels Chinese steel exports have increased 21% YoY from Jan - Sep 2024 3Q24 largest detractors included ores & concentrates and aggregates 55 50 45 40 35 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Increased YoY grain loadings from Argentina, United States and Ukraine in 3Q24 In 3Q24, Argentinian grain loadings increased by 51% YoY, recovering from crop yields that were previously affected by drought Ukraine 3Q24 loadings increased 367% YoY 3Q24 Brazilian grain loadings decreased by 8% YoY 130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3Q24 Chinese seaborne coal imports increased despite significant domestic coal production and higher hydroelectric output Coal demand in China, India and Vietnam is expected to remain robust due to energy security concerns China's 3Q24 import of Australian coal increased by 24% YoY, supporting tonne- mile demand, while loadings from Russia decreased YoY by 30% 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan In 3Q24, Brazilian iron ore loadings increased 3% YoY, positively impacting tonne-mile demand China's housing construction remains muted, the loss in steel demand is being offset by growth in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, as well as excess steel production supporting record exports Source: Indicative loading data and material from Oceanbolt, all rights reserved. Data as at 14 October 2024, subject to revision Handysize Core Business TCE US$/day 20,000 Reversal of Handysize freight tax provision of US$11.6 million resulted in TCE +US$1,690/day in 4Q23 15,000 $13,740 $12,530 $12,770 $12,570 $12,570 # $11,050 # 10,000 $10,200 $10,170 74% 19% 5,000 of of days days 0 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 Indicative Core Fleet P&L Breakeven Level incl. G&A for 1H24 = US$9,780 Supramax Core Business TCE US$/day Reversal of Supramax freight tax provision of US$11.1 million resulted in TCE 20,000 +US$2,150/day in 4Q23 $16,430 15,000 $13,760 $13,610 $13,780 $12,220 # $12,590 # $11,540 $12,190 10,000 84% 29% 5,000 of of days days 0 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 Indicative Core Fleet P&L Breakeven Level incl. G&A for 1H24 = US$11,030 Daily TCE earnings in 3Q 2024: Handysize: US$13,740, up 35% YoY Supramax: US$12,220, up 6% YoY 4Q 2024 Cover: Handysize: 74% of days covered at US$12,570 Supramax: 84% of days covered at US$12,190 1Q 2025 Cover: Handysize: 19% of days covered at US$10,170 Supramax: 29% of days covered at US$12,590 Reversal of freight tax provisions: In Q4 2024, we expect to reverse Handysize and Supramax freight tax provisions from prior periods, positively impacting TCE earnings, though subject to certain conditions and adjustments, and anticipated to be less than the 2023 reversal 4Q 2024 FFA rates : 1Q 2025 FFA rates : ▪ Handysize: $11,390 ▪ Handysize: $9,510 ▪ Supramax: $13,040 ▪ Supramax: $11,080 As at 11 October 2024 , indicative TCE rates only as voyages are still in progress; Current values of scrubber benefits are approximately US$20 and US$380 per day across our Core Handysize and Supramax fleet respectively. When a vessel with a scrubber is assigned a cargo, its TCE rate may be higher due to the added benefit of the scrubber ^ Source: Baltic Exchange, data as at 11 October 2024, exclude 5% commission and Handysize FFA rates are tonnage adjusted Core Business Operating Activity Handysize Performance vs Index (BHSI)* US$/day Scrubber contribution Relative performance 1,130 2,040 540 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 In 3Q24, we outperformed the average Handysize (BHSI 38k dwt tonnage-adjusted) index* by US$2,040 or 17% per day Outperformance will be negatively impacted in an upwardly moving freight rate environment In 3Q24, scrubbers fitted to our four core Handysize vessels contributed US$40 per day to outperformance Supramax Performance vs Index (BSI)* US$/day Scrubber contribution Relative performance 1,300 (480) (1,600) 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 In 3Q24, we underperformed the average Supramax (BSI 58k dwt) index* by US$1,600 or 12% per day Supramax vessel outperformance affected by high-costshort-term chartered vessels Outperformance will be negatively impacted in an upwardly moving freight rate environment In 3Q24, scrubbers fitted to our 33 core Supramax vessels contributed US$460 per day to outperformance Operating Activity Margin US$/day Margin 1,300 510 580 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 In 3Q24, our Operating activity generated a margin of US$1,300 per day, an increase of 12% YoY Over 6,950 operating days in 3Q24, an increase of 2% YoY (3Q23: 6,810 days) We currently operate approximately 154 short-term chartered vessels, with a focus to increase operating days on a year-on-year basis *Excludes 5% commission / BHSI 38,000 dwt (tonnage adjusted) / BSI 58,000 dwt From 25 April to 31 December (both days inclusive) Any shares bought back by the Company will be cancelled Proactively repurchasing our own shares at a significant discount compared to the intrinsic value of our assets, we currently recognise it as a more advantageous strategy compared to acquiring second-hand vessels Reflects our confidence in dry bulks long-term prospects Share Buyback Progress Purchased Since Commencement 3Q24 No. of shares (approx.) (million) 105.8 54.9 Total consideration (approx.) (US$ million) 31.7 14.5 Progress based on US$ consideration 79% 36% Average share price (HK$) 2.34 2.06 2024F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY Million Tonnes Coal 1,326 0.8% Iron Ore 1,590 3.0% Total (Iron Ore + Coal) 2,916 2.0% Bauxite / Alumina 213 7.6% Soybean 177 6.0% Coke & Petcoke 106 5.0% Forest Products 331 4.4% Wheat / Grains 371 4.2% Focus Steel Products 389 3.2% Manganese Ore 46 2.2% Agribulks 197 2.1% Fertiliser 197 2.1% PB Salt 55 1.9% Sugar 65 1.6% Others 138 0.7% Stone & Aggregate -1.2% 163 Scrap Steel -2.2% 91 Cement -2.2% 136 Copper Concentrates -2.6% 38 Nickel Ore -5.9% 48 PB focus cargo 2,761 2.7% Total Dry Bulk 5,677 2.3% (tonne-mile effect = 4.4%) (minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 3.6%) 2025F Dry Bulk Trade Volumes YOY Million Tonnes Coal -1.3% 1,309 Iron Ore -0.9% 1,576 Total (Iron Ore + Coal) -1.1% 2,885 Cement 146 7.4% Manganese Ore 49 6.5% Salt 58 5.5% Copper Concentrates 40 5.3% Others 145 5.1% Focus Bauxite / Alumina 223 4.7% Nickel Ore 50 4.2% Coke & Petcoke 110 3.8% Soybean 182 2.8% PB Agribulks 202 2.5% Fertiliser 202 2.5% Scrap Steel 93 2.2% Wheat / Grains 379 2.2% Forest Products 338 2.1% Stone & Aggregate 166 1.8% Steel Products 395 1.5% Sugar 65 0.0% PB focus cargo 2,843 3.0% Total Dry Bulk 5,728 0.9% (tonne-mile effect = 0.7%) (minor bulk tonne-mile effect = 2.4%) We anticipate ongoing disruption to Suez Canal transit, impacting fleet efficiency and increasing tonne-mile demand Minor Bulk: Broad-based increased demand for minor bulks including cement and clinker, metals and ores, agribulks, fertiliser and steel Forecast indicates a rise in bauxite production from Guinea, with the majority of exports destined for China Iron Ore: Reduced Chinese domestic housing construction is expected to limit iron ore demand for steel production Coal: Expect demand to be driven by energy security concerns in China, India and Vietnam Grains: Climate changes are expected to continue to affect domestic crop output which may lead to increased grain trade volumes Rising global demand for diversified diets and protein will continue to stimulate import demand for feed grains and soybeans Source: Clarksons Research, data as at September 2024 Handysize / Supramax Supply Development Overall Dry Bulk Supply Development % of Total Fleet % of Total Fleet 5% 5% 4.2% 4.1% 4% 4% 3.5% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3% 2.9% 3% 2.8% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F Scrapping Forecast Deliveries Forecast Scrapping Forecast Deliveries Forecast Scrapping New Deliveries Scrapping New Deliveries Net Fleet Growth Net Fleet Growth Forecast dry bulk net fleet growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025 Forecast total dry bulk fleet scrapping of 0.4% and 0.6% in 2024 and 2025 Forecast Handysize and Supramax fleet scrapping of 0.4% and 0.5% in 2024 and 2025 The global fleet of Handysize and Supramax vessels in which we specialise is forecast to grow by 4.2% net in 2024 and 4.1% net in 2025 Compliance with emissions regulations (e.g. EEXI, CII) will likely further reduce dry bulk supply through slower speeds, scrapping and greater energy-saving technology retrofit time Source: Clarksons Research, data as at September 2024

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