Fitch Ratings has affirmed MLP Group S.A.'s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BB+'.
The Outlook is Stable.
The affirmation reflects MLP's strong presence in its existing locations in Poland (74% by value) and growth in selected markets in Germany (16%). The group's portfolio comprises quality, modern buildings with an average age of less than seven years and occupancy of about 95%. It is predominantly funded with unsecured debt. Fitch forecasts EBITDA interest cover at 1.9x-2.0x for 2026-2029.
MLP's financial headroom is limited. Leverage is currently adversely affected by continued high spending on property development and land bank acquisition. Fitch expects MLP's net debt/EBITDA to decrease in 2027 to below the negative rating sensitivity of 10.5x, helped by rent contributions from completed developments, some of which are not yet let. More non-income producing properties and land will pressure the financial profile further.
Key Rating Drivers
High Leverage to Decrease: Fitch forecasts MLP's net debt/EBITDA at 11.2x in 2026 (2025: about 12x), based on annualised rents, helped by rent contributions from completed developments. We expect net leverage to decrease further to 9.9x in 2027 as the group's development capex and land acquisition spend moderate and income-producing assets are completed. Lower capex and land acquisition spend, plus the lack of dividends should help decrease leverage to 9.6x in 2029. Fitch-calculated loan-to-value (LTV, excluding non-income producing investment properties) at end-2025 was 54% (end-2024: 58%).
Fitch forecasts EBITDA net interest cover at 1.9x during 2026-2028, as rents from completed developments offset debt refinancing at higher interest rates.
Proven Capital Market Access: MLP has accessed capital markets twice so far in 2026. In January, it issued a EUR350 million unsecured bond with a 4.75% coupon due in 2031. In July, it completed a EUR100 million tap on its existing EUR300 million unsecured bond due in 2029. Proceeds were used in roughly equal parts to repay existing secured and unsecured debt (local bonds), fund its development pipeline and land acquisitions. Pro-forma for the tap, MLP's funding at end-1H26 was predominantly unsecured (80% of total debt).
Substantial Property Development Activity: At end-1H26, MLP had 186,000 square metre (sqm) of space under construction (end-2025: 324,100 sqm), including speculative projects where tenants' demand is high. MLP expects the projects to generate EUR11.9 million rent on completion and full occupancy. Historically, MLP's yield-on-cost (all costs included) was 7.3%-8.5%, depending on the country. The pre-let ratio for developments in 1H26 was 75%.
Increased German Landbank: At end-1H26, MLP's landbank was 144 hectares, of which 67 hectares were owned and 77 hectares were under options (end-1H25: 248 hectares, including 96 owned). The value of owned land was broadly flat, while the area of owned land decreased, as MLP acquired more expensive plots in Germany. These include a 42,800 sqm plot in Neufahrn, near Munich, where MLP plans to build a two-storey warehouse of 34,000 sqm and a 68,000 sqm plot in Geesthacht, near Hamburg, where it plans 36,500 sqm warehouse space.
Stable Operating Performance: At end-1H26, MLP's occupancy was 94.6% (2021-2025: 95%), affected by vacancy in Germany (26%) where negotiations to let the Spreenhagen asset (34,000 sqm), completed in 1Q26, are in an advanced stage. The weighted average lease length to earliest break (WALB) was long at 7.3 years. Like-for-like rental growth is mainly due to contractual, inflation-linked indexation (about 2% in 1H26) and re-letting at a high average 15% above the previous passing rent. The effect of re-lettings is limited as the lease expiration profile is evenly balanced.
Continued Organic Growth: MLP has continued its substantial development programme, adding 277,000 sqm, or 22% of the group's gross leasable area (GLA) in the year to end-1H26 (1H26: 220,000 sqm). The largest additions were in Poland (151,000 sqm) and Germany (75,000 sqm), which management considers to be the key market for international expansion. MLP's total completed GLA was 1.5 million sqm. This income-producing portfolio was valued at EUR1.5 billion (end-1H25: EUR1.1 billion), with Germany's share growing to 16% (by value, end-1H25: 10%) and Poland's decreasing to 74% (78%). Austria's and Romania's shares were 7% and 3%, respectively.
High Asset Concentration: At end-1H26, MLP's top 10 logistic parks constituted 75% of total portfolio by rent. We expect only a moderate fall in concentration as MLP, where possible, tends to add space to existing proven locations. In the largest park (24% by rent), Pruszkow II, near Warsaw, buildings with a total area of about 35,000 sqm were added in 1H26. The total park area is 390,000 sqm and its value is EUR360 million.
Diverse Tenant Portfolio: MLP has a higher share of light industrial tenants, at 37% of space, than some Fitch-rated peers. Logistics and e-commerce constitute 53% and 10%, respectively. This mix of local and international companies, including Asian manufacturers, finds MLP's modern assets attractive, given their access to transportation and workforce pools. At end-1H26, the top 10 tenants' share was 31% of rent and the share of L-Shop Team, MLP's biggest tenant, was 5%.
Local-Currency Reporting: MLP reports in Polish zloty, but most rents and debt are denominated in euros. The property portfolio is also valued in euros. Changes in the zloty/euro rate may distort MLP's results.
Unchanged Ownership Structure: MLP biggest shareholder is The Land Development of Nimrodi Group Ltd, with a 41% economic interest but limited direct control. MLP operates independently. Two independent supervisory board members nominated by minority shareholders provide some oversight of the group's management. Fitch rates MLP based on its Standalone Credit Profile (SCP).
Peer Analysis
MLP's closest rated peer is DL Invest Group PM S.A. (DLIG; IDR BB-/Positive), but DLIG's Silesia-focused PLN3.8 billion portfolio has similar or higher asset, tenant and geographical concentrations despite diversification in office and retail assets. Both portfolios have high occupancy rates and comparable WALBs for their logistic assets.
MLP is rated lower than continental European logistic peers, including Catena AB (publ) and SELP Finance SARL (both IDRs: BBB/Stable); and AXA Logistics Europe Master S.C.A., Warehouses de Pauw NV/SA and Montea NV (all IDRs: BBB+/Stable), which have larger, more diversified portfolios.
The financial profiles of the rated western European logistic peers are not directly comparable as their assets are mostly in countries with a lower interest rate environment than Poland. Polish logistics assets have higher valuation yields, also reflecting a greater risk of oversupply than western European markets. MLP's financial profile, including Fitch-forecast net debt/EBITDA decreasing to below 10x (2026: 11.2x), is better than DLIG's, whose net debt/EBITDA is forecast by Fitch to decrease to 10x in 2028 (2026: 13x).
Fitch's Key Rating-Case Assumptions
Rental income is modelled on an annualised rent basis
Rent increase of 58% in 2026 and 26% in 2027, driven mainly by rental contributions from completed new developments. Like-for-like growth includes the CPI indexation effect and rent increases on renewals, limited to about 3% a year
About PLN1.8 billion construction capex and PLN1 billion land acquisitions until 2029
No dividends paid for the next four years
Average cost of debt at about 5% during 2026-2028
Constant euro/zloty exchange rate at 4.3.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool (CRT) to produce the SCP:
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative importance): management ('bbb-?'?, Lower), access to capital ('bbb-?'?, Moderate), liability profile ('bb+', Moderate), property portfolio ('bb+', Higher), rental income risk profile ('bbb', Moderate), profitability ('bbb-?'?, Moderate), financial structure ('bb', Higher), and financial flexibility ('bbb', Lower).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT financial period parameters: 20% weight for the forecast year 2026, 40% for the forecast year 2027 and 40% for the forecast year 2028.
The governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'a-?' has no impact.
The SCP is 'bb+'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of 'BB+'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade
Net debt/EBITDA failing to improve below 10.5x by 2027
Completed developments failing to generate rental income in a timely manner, burdening net debt/EBITDA
LTV above 55%
12-month liquidity score below 1.0x
For the senior unsecured rating: unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt ratio below 1x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade
Expansion of the portfolio reducing asset concentration while maintaining portfolio quality and above 95% occupancy rate
Net debt/EBITDA less than 9.5x
EBITDA interest cover above 1.7x
Unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt ratio trending towards 2x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-1H26, MLP had about PLN600 million readily available cash pro-forma for the EUR100 million (about PLN430 million) tap on its 2029 bond completed in July 2026. MLP had also an undrawn EUR62 million (PLN267 million) mortgage loans that when drawn would increase cash sources to about PLN870 million. Apart from mortgage loan amortisations of about EUR2 million (PLN8 million) a year, MLP does not have meaningful debt maturing until March 2028, when EUR61 million (PLN261 million) secured loans fall due. Fitch does not include MLP's short-term EUR10 million overdraft facility with ING in its forward-looking liquidity calculation.
MLP is funded mainly with two unsecured Eurobonds, EUR400 million due 2029 and EUR350 million due in 2031. Its income-producing unencumbered assets pool was valued at EUR1 billion at end-1H26. The resultant Fitch-calculated unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt ratio was 1.3x.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Click here to access Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of our Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated risk for MLP.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.
RATING ACTIONS
Entity / Debt
Rating Type
Rating
Rating Action
Recovery
Prior
MLP Group S.A.
LT IDR
BB+
Affirmed
BB+
senior unsecured
LT
BB+
Affirmed
RR4
BB+
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PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer's available public disclosure.
APPLICABLE CRITERIA
Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instrument Ratings Criteria (pub. 03 Aug 2024) (including rating assumption sensitivity)
Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 10 Jan 2026) (including rating assumption sensitivity)
Sector Navigators - Addendum to the Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 10 Jan 2026)
APPLICABLE MODELS
Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).
Corporate Monitoring & Forecasting Model (COMFORT Model), v8.2.0 (1)
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MLP Group S.A. EU Issued, UK Endorsed
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