Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — EEI Financial Conference 2024
38 slides from Ameren's conference presentation, Nov 10, 2024
Slide 1: Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow
Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow EEI Financial Conference November 10-12, 2024
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented adjusted earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation. Gener
Slide 3: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility Ameren Businesses 2.4M electric Ameren Missouri customers • Electric transmission, distribution, and generation business and a natural gas distribution business in Missouri regulated by MoPSC 0.9M gas • Serves 1.2 million elec
Slide 4: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE Enhance regulatory Invest in rate regulated Optimize operating frameworks and advocate energy infrastructure performance for responsible policies To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment EEI Fina
Slide 5: Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment
Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment Attractive dividend Strong long-term and long-term dividend growth Attractive total growth outlook outlook return potential • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR 2024-20281,2 • Annualized equivalent dividend rate of • Track record of deliver
Slide 6: Our Sustainability Value Proposition
Our Sustainability Value Proposition ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP SOCIAL IMPACT • Responsibly transitioning to a cleaner and more diverse portfolio • Delivered value to customers in 2023 while focused on safety ‒ Target carbon reductions from 2005 levels: 60% by 2030; 85% by 2040; net ‒ Ameren-supplied
Slide 7: Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth
Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth Weather-Normalized Adjusted Dividends Paid per Share3 Total Shareholder Earnings per Diluted Share1 and Payout as a % of WN EPS Return $4.50 +112% or $2.80 ~+58% 2013 to 2023 $4.62 180% $4.25 ~7.8% CAGR 2013 to 2023 $4.41 $2.60 $2.68 | 58% , 2013 to 202
Slide 8: Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth
Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth • Expect 2024 adjusted EPS in a range of $4.52 to $4.721 – Midpoint represents 6.2% EPS growth compared to 2023 original guidance midpoint of $4.35 Original EPS Guidance • Expect 2025 EPS in a range of $4.85 to $5.051 – Midpoint represents 7
Slide 9: Strategically Allocated Rate Base Growth
Strategically Allocated Rate Base Growth1 Increased five-year infrastructure investment plan by $2.2B2 $21.9 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment 2023 to 2028E Regulated Five-Year Rate 2024-2028 Infrastructure Rate Base3,4 Base CAGR4,5 Ameren Illinois ($ billions) Ameren Illinois $36.4 Ele
Slide 10: Expected 2024-2028 Funding Plan
Expected 2024-2028 Funding Plan1 • Cash from Operations – ~$2 billion of income tax deferrals and tax asset utilization • Income tax deferrals primarily driven by capital expenditures • Includes utilization of ~$60 million of federal and state tax credit carryforwards at year- end 2023 • 15% corpora
Slide 11: Ameren Missouri New Generation Projects
Ameren Missouri New Generation Projects Reliable, Affordable Energy Through a Cleaner Balanced Energy Portfolio Anticipated Energy Generation Agreement Facility Size Developer CCN Status In-Service Center Type Type Date Build- EDF Approved Feb. Huck Finn1,2 200 MW Solar Q4 2024 transfer Renewables 2
Slide 12: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Projects
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Projects Enhancing Reliability and Lowering Customer Costs • MISO proposed Tranche 2.1 projects estimated to cost $21.8 billion1; expect MISO approval Dec. 12, 2024 – Portfolio focuses on creating high-voltage transmission highways within the MISO region to maxi
Slide 13: Robust Customer Growth Opportunities
Robust Customer Growth Opportunities Facilitating Growth in Our Region While Delivering Value for All Customers Expanding Economic Development Pipeline • Robust pipeline of potential customers conducting formal engineering reviews Represents Tens of Thousands of MW of locations in our territory of P
Slide 14: Investing in the Energy Grid
Investing in the Energy Grid • Investing to modernize energy grid, making it cleaner, safer, more reliable, resilient and secure – Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with the MoPSC supporting infrastructure investment to 2023-2028E Regulated modernize the grid Infrastructure Rate Base3 – Expect
Slide 15: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing the grid and investing in cleaner generation Investment Plan 2024-2028 $55B+ ($ billions) $21.9 Strong Pipeline of Regulated Infrastructure Investments $4.1 2024-2033 $1.8 • Modernize electric and gas transmission an
Slide 16: Financial and Regulatory Updates
Financial and Regulatory Updates Ameren Transmission Monopole Tower 2024
Slide 17: 2024 Adjusted Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30
2024 Adjusted Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30 ↑ Ameren Missouri earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA and AFUDC: +$0.11 — New electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: +$0.09 Adjusted Diluted EPS2 — Higher electric retail sales: ~+$0.05 YTD Sep. 20
Slide 18: 2025 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers & Assumptions vs. 2024
2025 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers & Assumptions vs. 20241 Midpoint represents ~7% EPS growth compared to 2024 adjusted guidance midpoint of $4.62 ↑ New electric service rates effective by June 1 ↑ Higher investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA including rebased in new rates:~+$0.16 Ameren
Slide 19: Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters
Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters 2024 Missouri Electric Rate Review Filing • $446 million annual revenue increase request filed June 28 with MoPSC – ROE: 10.25% – Equity ratio: 52.0% – Rate base: $14 billion (Dec. 31, 2024 estimate) – Test year ended Mar. 31, 2024, with certain pro-forma adjustm
Slide 20: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Electric Distribution Reconciliation for 2023 • In July 2024, Ameren Illinois updated request for a $158 million reconciliation adjustment to the 2023 revenue requirement reflecting actual costs – Based on 2023 year-end rate base of $4.2 billion, 9.84% ROE and 50% equity
Slide 21: Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027
Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027 Order on Rehearing • In June 2024, ICC approved a cumulative revenue increase of $285 million1, reflecting a base level of grid reliability investment – Approved ~94% of Ameren Illinois’ rehearing request; remaining difference drive
Slide 22: Credit Ratings and Financing Activity
Credit Ratings2 and Financing Activity External Debt Balances Debt Financing Issuance Date Issuer Rate Type Maturity As of Sep. 30, 2024 $ in millions Moody's S&P ($M) Jan. 9 Ameren Missouri $350 5.25% First Mortgage Bonds 2054 Ameren Corporation (Issuer: Baa1/BBB+) Apr. 4 Ameren Missouri $500 5.20%
Slide 23: Summary
Summary Expect 2024 adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.691 Expect 2025 diluted EPS to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.051 Successfully executing our strategy; well-positioned for future growth • Focused on delivering a reliable and sustainable energy future in a responsible manner
Slide 24: Appendix
Appendix Ameren Missouri’s Montgomery Community Solar Energy Center in service March 2022
Slide 25: Four Regulatory Frameworks
Four Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking Ameren • Allowed ROE is 10.48%, including MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~56% average equity ratio Transmission • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation ICC-regulated: Future
Slide 26: Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sep. 2023
Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sep. 20233 Least-cost approach to reliably meet customer energy needs in an environmentally responsible manner • Carbon emissions1: Targets substantial reductions; 60% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and net-zero by 2045 • Coal: All energy centers retired by 2
Slide 27: Ameren's Pathway to Carbon Emission Reduction Goals
Ameren’s Pathway to Carbon Emission Reduction Goals Science based targets consistent with 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement • Ameren’s carbon emission reduction goals1 (60% by 2030, 85% Emission Reduction Pathways by 2040, and net-zero by 2045) are science based and Consistent with Paris Agreement
Slide 28: Rush Island Energy Center Retirement
Rush Island Energy Center Retirement • Rush Island Energy Center retired on Oct. 15, 2024 – Necessary transmission and system upgrades identified by the MISO grid reliability study nearing completion – 100% of impacted employees offered a new position within the company – Return on rate base, relate
Slide 29: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 23 Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • $1.7 billion invested in 2023 to support reliability, address aged infrastructure and provide clean energy to the customers and
Slide 30: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics Adjustment / Metric Description Incentive (+/- bps) Improve System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) systemwide; improve interruption and 1. Reliability duration outages (SAIDI, SAIFI, CEMI, and CELID) in enviro
Slide 31: Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates
Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates Issuer 20241 2025 2026 2027 2028 $350 million 3.65% senior unsecured notes $450 million 2.50% $500 million 1.95% $450 million 1.75% Ameren Corp. senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes $600 million 5.70% senior unsecured notes
Slide 32: GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Sep. 30, Sep. 30, (in millions, except per share amounts) 2023 2024 2023 2024 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $ 493 $ 1.87 $ 456 $1.70 $ 994 $ 3.78 $ 975 $3.65 Charge for additional mitigation relief for Rush Island Energy Cen
Slide 33: GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 $2.14 $3.32 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — — — — — Less
Slide 34: Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Adjusted1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Ameren Missouri weather impact 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.04 (0.05) 0.02 0
Slide 35: Ameren's Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023
Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023 Return on Investment Revenues Cost Recovery3 Revenues $1.97B1 x $1.97B1 x ($98M x $466M + 51.9%2 x 48.1% x 25%) / (1 $171M x $131M + 9.59%2 = 3.93% = - 25%) 17%1 = $265M = $98M $37M $33M $29M $862M $7,500M 14% Return on Interest Tax Expense Property F
Slide 36: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2024 JANUARY 2025 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. ` 1 2 1 2 3 4 Quiet Period cont’d 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Q3 Evercore Earnings Call ISI Conf. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EEI EEI EEI Quiet Financial F
Slide 37: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Pending electric rate review filling: Docket No. ER-2024-0319 • Order approving CCN for Castle Bluff Energy Center: EA-2024-0237 • Pending gas rate review filing: Docket No. GR-2024-0369 • Order approving multi-project CC
Slide 38: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction ICC – Illinois Commerce Commission ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois IRP – Integrated resource plan B – Billion LRTP – Long Range Transmission Planning BOD – Board of Directors LT – Long-term bps –