Cavendish plc · LSE:CAV
Cavendish — Investor Presentation (October 2026)
14 slides from Cavendish's investor presentation, Oct 28, 2026
Slide 1: 2026 Autumn Budget Equity Strategy
2026 AUTUMN BUDGET Roger Lee “Breathing space for today, fresh hope for the future” HM GOVERNMENT 28TH OCTOBER 2026 Equity Strategy
Slide 2: Budget summary – do no harm
2026 BUDGET Budget summary – do no harm TOTAL N UM BE R OF S C OR E C AR D M E ASUR E S PE R AV E R AG E G R OS S V AL UE OF E AC H S C OR E C AR D BUD G E T M E ASUR E I N E AC H BUD G E T Source: HM Treasury, OBR, Sky Source: HM Treasury, OBR, Sky We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hoc
Slide 3: The tax burden continues to rise
2026 BUDGET The tax burden continues to rise NATI ONAL AC C OUN TS TAX E S AS A SHAR E OF G D P BI G G E R TAX R I S E AN N OUN C E D TH I S PAR L I AM E N T THAN I N AN Y S I N C E 19 7 0 Source: ONS, OBR Source: IFS 2025 Businesses don’t pay tax, people do.” MILTON FRIEDMAN PG. 3
Slide 4: Taxing UK growth will be challenging
2026 BUDGET Taxing UK growth will be challenging 5Y AV E R AG E TAX BUR D E N V S 10 Y AV E R AG E M ONTHLY C H AN G E I N UK PAYE PAYR OL L E D G D P G R OWTH E M PLOYE E S UK 2030/31 Labour win 2024 Tax Burden General Election 5% 60,000 50,000 40,000 4% 30,000 UK - 1995- 2005 20,000 3% South Korea
Slide 5: Minimum Wage rises make it harder for young people to find work
2026 BUDGET Minimum Wage rises make it harder for young people to find work M I NI M UM WAG E R E L ATI V E TO THE M E D I AN WAG E UK UNE M PL OYM E N T R ATE S V S M I N I M UM WAG E OF ALL FUL L - TI M E WOR K E R S (%) I NC R E ASE S FOR 18 - 2 0 YE AR OL D S 12 65.00 17 11 16 10 15 9 60.00 14 8
Slide 6: Borrowing falls later as public debt stays elevated
2026 BUDGET Borrowing falls later as public debt stays elevated PUBLI C SE C TOR N E T BOR R OWI NG FOR E C AST PUBLI C SE C TOR N E T BOR R OWI N G I N TH E YE AR TO D ATE 5.0 160 4.4 4.5 4.2 140 4.0 3.6 120 3.4 3.5 100 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.5 80 2.5 2.1 60 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 40 1.5 20 1.0 0 0.5 Apr May J
Slide 7: Spending plans rely on tight budgets after 2028
2026 BUDGET Spending plans rely on tight budgets after 2028 TOTAL M ANAG E D E X PE N D I TUR E AS A SHAR E OF G D P C UM ULATI V E C H AN G E I N WE L FAR E S PE N D I N G Source: ONS, OBR Source: DWP, HMRC, OBR We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidises non-work.” MILTON FRIEDMAN
Slide 8: Real income per person forecast to rise just 1% in a decade
2026 BUDGET Real income per person forecast to rise just 1% in a decade R E AL HOUSE H OL D D I S POS ABL E I NC OM E (R HD I ) PE R R OLLI NG 10 - YE AR AV E R AG E G R OWTH I N R H D I PE R PE R S ON PE R SON 1% rise in a decade Note: Compound average growth rate over a 10-year period. 2025-26 is
Slide 9: Public mood on the economy is bleak
2026 BUDGET Public mood on the economy is bleak S o u r c e : M o r e i n C o m m o n , 1 6 th- 1 9 th O c t o b e r 2 0 2 6 PG. 9
Slide 10: Voters favour tax cuts while Labour leads the polls
2026 BUDGET Voters favour tax cuts while Labour leads the polls SI NC E 2 0 2 4 , PUBL I C OPI N I ON ON TAX ATI ON AND UK G ENER AL ELEC TI ON POLLI NG V OTE SHAR E SPEND I NG HAS FLI PPED Labour 29% Conservatives 22% Reform 22% Liberal Democrats 9% Greens 9% Jan ‘25 Jul ‘25 Jan ‘26 Jul ‘26 Source:
Slide 11: The world has changed – war, oil and interest rates
2026 BUDGET The world has changed – war, oil and interest rates C HANG E S I N UK AN D US I N TE R E S T R ATE C R UD E OI L PR I C E S AN D G BP 2 Y SWAPS EX PEC TATI ONS 130 5 120 4 5 3 110 2 # Hikes/Cuts 100 4.5 1 90 0 4 80 -1 70 3.5 -2 60 -3 50 3 -4 US Feb 23rd US Oct 26th UK Feb 23rd UK Oct 26t
Slide 12: FTSE 250 trades at a 25% discount to global equities
2026 BUDGET FTSE 250 trades at a 25% discount to global equities FTSE 2 50 M AR K E T C AP V S G BP 5Y SWAP R ATE R E LATI V E 2 Y FOR WAR D PE R ATI O OF FTS E 2 50 AN D M SC I WOR L D 0.00 1.1 500,000 ~25% discount to global equities 1.00 1 450,000 2.00 ~14% downside 0.9 400,000 3.00 0.8 350,000 4
Slide 13: Disclaimer
CAVENDISH Disclaimer Cavendish is the trading name of the group of companies held by Cavendish plc (no. 11540126), each registered in England and Wales at 1 Bartholomew Close, London EC1A 7BL, and comprises Cavendish Securities plc (no. 05210733), Cavendish Corporate Finance LLP (no. OC333044) and C
Slide 14: Cavendish office locations
LONDON EDINBURGH MANCHESTER BIRMINGHAM One Bartholomew Close 6th Floor, 125 Princes Street, Gilbanks, No.1 St Michael’s Five St Philips Place, London, EC1A 7BL Edinburgh, EH2 4AD 36 Jackson’s Row, Manchester, Birmingham, B3 2PW M2 5WD +44 (0) 20 7908 6000 WWW.CAVENDISH.COM PG. 14